The Influence of Affect on Managers' Capital‐Budgeting Decisions*

In this paper, we propose that affective reactions are integral to accounting decision contexts like capital budgeting, and that researchers must jointly consider affect and cognition to better understand accounting decision makers' behavior. We argue that interpersonal relationships are characteristic of many capital‐budgeting contexts, and that these relationships can lead to emotional affective reactions. For example, reactions such as frustration and anger may result if a manager is treated unfairly by another individual involved in a capital project. Drawing on relevant work in neurobiology and psychology, we then predict that these affective reactions can influence managers' capital‐budgeting decisions. We report on four experimental scenarios that demonstrate the impact of affective reactions on capital‐budgeting decisions. Consistent with our predictions, the results indicate that managers consider both financial data and affective reactions when evaluating the utility of an investment alternative. Our results suggest that researchers should consider both affect and cognition to more fully understand decision making in accounting contexts.     

Internal Information Quality and the Sensitivity of Investment to Market Prices and Accounting Profits

We ask whether the quality of internal information matters for investment decisions. We predict that investment is more sensitive to internal profit signals and less sensitive to external price signals when managers have higher‐quality internal information. Consistent with recent theoretical and empirical research, we proxy for internal information quality using observable information properties. We find that the sensitivity of investment to profitability is increasing, while the sensitivity of investment to market‐to‐book is decreasing in internal information quality. Our focus on internal information and decision making offers new and unique insights on the importance of information quality and complements the growing literature on the role of external reporting quality in reducing financing frictions.     

Earning the “Write to Speak”: Sell‐Side Analysts and Their Struggle to Be Heard

This paper explores the ways in which sell‐side (SS) financial analysts seek to position themselves advantageously within the wider field of investment advice in spite of widespread skepticism over the value that their forecasts and recommendations add to investment decisions. The field of investment advice has been characterized in recent years by a number of regulatory and technological changes that have forced SS analysts to reconstitute the ways in which they influence the investment decisions of buy‐side (BS) actors. Faced with existential threats, SS analysts have responded to the disruptive impact of technology and regulation by struggling hard to ensure that their services are still valued by fund managers. Key to this ongoing process is the recalibration of professional expertise, which previous research has alluded to but not explored in detail. Central to the persistence of SS analysts in processes of investment decision making are activities revolving around the production and use of analyst reports which, our findings indicate, are less valuable for their informational content than their role as “relational devices,” ascribing legitimacy to SS analysts and earning them an entry ticket to more substantive, value‐adding interactions with companies and BS actors. We also show that economic considerations in the area of investment advice are influenced by social ties, the motivations of various actors in the field, and their relative position vis‐à‐vis other actors. More generally, we contribute to the literature on professional projects by showing how professional groups are constantly engaged in attempts to reposition themselves in the social space, but that field‐level changes can restrict the outcomes of these strategies to mitigation rather than advancement for the professionals concerned.     

Words and Numbers: Financialization and Accounting Standard Setting in the United Kingdom

How is it possible that British policymakers resisted market‐based measurement for decades while financial economic concepts of decision making and valuation still gained widespread acceptance as a justification for accounting standard setting? This study introduces the concept of “technologies of financialization” to develop the theorizing of the rise of finance in the domain of accounting. Based on a genealogical history of narrative reporting in the United Kingdom, it demonstrates how references to qualitative reporting techniques helped to address recurring crises of measurement from 1969 to 1993, and ultimately contributed to the practical acceptance of market‐based measurement in the UK standard‐setting context. The data are interpreted through a cultural economy framework that directs attention to the power of referring to financial reporting as a combination of words and numbers in sustaining its theoretical redefinition “from below”—that is, by relating it to the experience of practicing accountants rather than accounting theory. As a technology of financialization, narrative reporting made financial economic ideals of market‐based measurement, decision usefulness, and future orientation appear operable in a real‐life reporting context. Whenever measurement reached its practical limits, narratives were relied on to explain the impact of price‐level changes, frame economic decisions, and relate unobservable future cash flows to present‐day strategies and resources. The insight into how narrative reporting practices have been laced into the reasoning of capital markets for over 40 years is timely because it illustrates that narratives can also play a more encompassing role and drive the turn toward wider corporate accountability on social and environmental impacts while hard measurements in this area are still being figured out.     

民营企业管理者过度自信与投融资决策行为的关系

借鉴国内外有关行为财务理论及实证研究成果,笔者以安徽省近年来实力较强的500家民营企业的投融资行为作为研究样本,着重从民营企业管理者"过度自信"心理方面入手,用实证研究的方法探索民营企业在进行投融资决策时所受到的非理性因素干扰的情况。通过本课题的研究,希望在一定程度上解决民营企业投融资行为"实际是什么"的问题,从而使我国的民营企业能够从发展历程中汲取经验和教训,在投融资决策中克服盲目和冲动情绪,努力减少由于非理性因素的干扰而导致的盲目融资和过度投资的行为,尽量避免或减少投资失败和财务困境。     

Managers' Discretionary Adjustments: The Influence of Uncontrollable Events and Compensation Interdependence

Discretionary bonus adjustments allow managers to restore the alignment of employee effort and compensation when bonus amounts are based on noisy objective performance measures. The implications of discretionary adjustments for employees' future efforts and fairness perceptions present important trade‐offs for managers to consider. Adjustments may be used to motivate different types of effort in future periods, but may also create perceptions of unfairness among employees who are not affected by negative events. This study examines the joint influence of the likelihood of future negative uncontrollable events and compensation interdependence (i.e., the extent to which one employee's compensation influences others' compensation) on managers' willingness to make adjustments for the effect of a negative uncontrollable event on a single employee. In our experiment, we manipulate the likelihood of future uncontrollable events and whether bonuses are determined individually or are drawn from a shared bonus pool. Results show that managers are less willing to adjust when the likelihood of future events is high to avoid setting a precedent, thereby motivating employees to adapt to changing conditions. We also find that managers are less willing to adjust, regardless of event likelihood, when compensation interdependence is high, to avoid demotivating unaffected employees. Finally, we find that participants' general attitudes toward compensation significantly influence their adjustment decisions beyond the effects of our independent variables. Our results highlight the unique nature of discretionary adjustments, help explain findings from previous research, and demonstrate important considerations managers must make when using the flexibility provided to them in pay‐for‐performance contracts.     

Tax Loss Carryovers in a Competitive Environment*

The fact that incumbent firms can immediately deduct research and development (R&D) investments from taxable income is generally believed to give them a strategic advantage over new firms that cannot deduct the investment cost, but instead generate a net operating tax loss carryover. Using an analytical model, we show that this conventional wisdom need not hold in a competitive environment. We examine operating and investment decisions in a duopolistic industry in which an initial investment in R&D yields an immediate tax benefit for one firm, but creates a net operating loss carryover for the other firm. If both firms invest in R&D, the firm with the net operating loss carryover makes more aggressive capital investment decisions following successful R&D. This may deter the incumbent firm from investing in R&D despite the lower aftertax costs of this investment. Changing the tax loss carryover rules would thus not only affects start‐up or loss firms, but would also affect the investment decisions of profitable firms in the same industry.     

China's Overinvestment and International Trade Conflicts

For a long time, China's impressive growth performance has been driven by investment and high productivity gains. Based on a discussion of possible overcapacities and overinvestment in China, this paper investigates the sustainability of China's investment and export‐driven growth model. Since the turn of the millennium, buoyant capital inflows and low interest rates have been at the root of overinvestment and misallocation of capital, which necessitated export subsidies to clear markets. The overinvestment boom is argued to have ended around 2014. Since then, the overcapacities have weakened China's bargaining position in the US–Chinese trade conflict and have tempted Chinese authorities to postpone the restructuring of the Chinese economy by providing low‐interest credit. The gradual reemergence of quasi‐soft budget constraints is seen to undermine China's long‐term growth potential.     

安徽风险资本运作模式选择研究

将风险企业成长的特点与安徽经济发展现状相结合,成立由政府发起设立的具有多种资本来源的风险投资公司.在多元治理的框架下,完善经理人的产生和发现机制,建立健全经理人的内外约束与激励机制,普通股和优先股组合监督管理,形成互相牵制、平衡发展的新型治理结构模式.在投资对象的选择上,依据全面分散投资、分散风险的原则,将资金合理布局、适时调整,并通过退出模式的选择,平衡现金流,避免集中投资、集中退出带来的冲击.     

The impact of cognitive biases on capital investments Empirical evidence regarding the anchoring heuristic

A large body of research shows that cognitive biases—unconscious mental errors caused by simplified information processing strategies—distort decision making in a variety of situations. This article demonstrates that these biases are also highly relevant with regard to decisions in a capital investment context, an area that has not received scientific attention yet. Building on a short introduction of the underlying principles and on brief analogy-based theoretical considerations, the main part describes and analyzes three series of empirical experiments, which clearly show that anchoring-induced cognitive biases systematically distort judgments and decision making in the respective contexts. This is the case for artificially incorporated anchors (first series of experiments) as well as for situation-embedded anchors (second series). The third series of experiments finally shows that the observed bias also persists for professionally experienced people.     

An Index‐Based Model for Determining the Investment Benchmark of Renewable Energy Projects in South Africa

In a globalised world, financial markets observe the optimal level of asset allocation and returns based on risk inherent in the economies. Whether public or private investors, they need to have an optimal return on their investment given the finite resources. In relatively new sectors like grid‐connected renewable energy, many investors face difficulty in assessing proper return, making them more averse to financing such projects, affecting transborder project development opportunities. In developing countries like South Africa, which has tremendous potential for renewable energy projects, an arbitrary choice of the required rate of return for project evaluations can negatively affect funding decisions. This paper explores an index‐based model to make fair estimates of the required equity benchmark internal rate of return (IRR) using financial markets observation for renewable energy projects in South Africa. The index‐based model is parsimonious and captures common macroeconomic factors. More specifically, it provides a simple and effective mechanism to calculate IRR for renewable energy projects given different gestation periods.     

Capital Structure and Investment Financing of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Vietnam

Insufficient sources of internal financing and inaccessibility of external financing are acknowledged as crucial constraints on new investment for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This study examines how capital structure is related to investment decision for SMEs in Vietnam. In particular, we investigate the effect of capital structure on the decision to seek new investment as well as the choice of its financing sources. The main results reveal that SMEs with high financial leverage tend to engage more in seeking new investment. Moreover, empirical results demonstrate that among SMEs seeking new investment, those with higher financial leverage are more likely to choose external financing rather than internal financing. These results confirm the dynamic feature of the pecking order theory in the context of SMEs’ capital structure in Vietnam.     

Effort and Performance: What Distinguishes Interacting and Noninteracting Groups from Individuals?

We study how group membership affects behavior both when group members can and cannot interact with each other. Our goal is to isolate the contrasting forces that spring from group membership: a free‐riding incentive leading to reduced effort and a sense of social responsibility that increases effort. In an environment with varying task difficulty and individual decision making as the benchmark, we show that the free‐riding effect is stronger. Group members significantly reduce their effort in situations where they share the outcome but are unable to communicate. When group members share outcomes and can interact, they outperform groups without communication and individuals. We show that these groups do as well as the best constituent member would have done on his or her own.     

The Efficacy of Third‐Party Consultation in Preventing Managerial Escalation of Commitment: The Role of Mental Representations*

Avoiding continued investment in poorly performing projects is an important function of management control systems. However, prior research suggests that managers fail to use accounting information indicating that a project is performing poorly to discontinue it; that is, they escalate commitment to the project. We perform two experiments to investigate the efficacy of a potential control mechanism, third‐party consultation, in preventing managerial escalation of commitment. We hypothesize that the information‐processing objective (that is, purpose) assigned to consultants influences the mental representations they construct to process and store information, which ultimately influences their recommendations regarding the continuation of a poorly performing project. Results suggest that consultants will not construct mental representations amenable to making high‐quality project‐continuation recommendations unless they are assigned that specific purpose. Results further suggest that applying additional effort likely will not overcome the adverse effects of having inappropriate mental representations when making project‐continuation recommendations. An implication of our study is that third‐party consultants likely will not prevent managerial escalation of commitment unless consultants have a specific mandate of making a project‐continuation recommendation in mind when they encounter relevant accounting information.     

Capital Inflows and Exports Diversification in Sub‐Saharan Africa during the MDGs Era

This paper explores the impact of different forms of capital inflows, including foreign direct investment, foreign aid, portfolio investment, and remittances, on exports diversification in sub‐Saharan Africa during the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) era. We employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to deal with the endogeneity issue. Using a sample of 35 countries over the period 2000–15, it shows that the impact of capital inflows on exports diversification depends on the type of capital. We find evidence that foreign aid, foreign direct investment, and remittances have positive effects on exports diversification, while portfolio inflows negatively affect exports diversification. Moreover, we find that the impact of capital inflows on exports diversification differs across the region of destination of the exported products. This study underscores the important role of international cooperation and capital inflows in sub‐Saharan Africa, and lends support to policies aiming to attract foreign capital.     

Asymmetric Inventory Management and the Direction of Sales Changes*

We study manufacturing firms' asymmetric inventory investment in response to sales changes. Focusing on the costs of resource adjustment and stockout that likely differ in sales‐increasing and sales‐decreasing periods, we predict and find that inventory investment declines less during periods with sales decreases than it rises during periods with sales increases. We validate this claim by showing that managers' expectations of future demand and desire to avoid inventory stockouts are important determinants of this asymmetry. In addition, we find that asymmetric inventory investment provides useful information for predicting future sales growth, and that both managers' and analysts' sales forecasts are positively associated with the asymmetry. Lastly, we document that forecasts of future sales growth that incorporate asymmetric inventory investment are associated with lower absolute forecast errors than benchmark forecasts. Overall, we highlight the importance of inventory information in understanding managers' resource adjustment and utilization decisions that have implications for forecasting future demand. Our findings on asymmetric inventory management provide new insights to fundamental analysis based on inventory signals.     

绿地投资还是跨国并购:中国企业OFDI模式选择研究

对外直接投资模式选择是企业国际化战略中的关键决策。文章运用中国工业企业数据库和商务部境外投资企业名录匹配基础上的补充数据，实证考察企业在绿地投资和跨国并购之间的对外投资模式选择。研究表明：随着企业生产率、资本密集度，以及东道国经济发展水平、关税水平和制度环境的提升，企业进行跨国并购的概率提高；随着企业规模、研发投入，以及东道国市场规模、文化距离的增大，企业选择绿地投资的概率提高；相比来看，非国有企业、资本密集型企业和具有国际化经验的企业对各类影响因素更加敏感，在OFDI模式选择中受到的影响程度更大。     

Evidence of Manager Intervention to Avoid Working Capital Deficits

We study managers’ interventions in financial reporting by examining working capital deficits, measured as current ratios less than 1.0. Current ratios represent important balance sheet liquidity indicators to lenders and creditors, and have an identifiable and naturally occurring reference point at 1.0, analogous to the profit/loss income statement reference point. We find that distributions of reported current ratios of both U.S. and non‐U.S. firms exhibit a discontinuity at 1.0. For U.S. firms, we find that the discontinuity increases with exogenous increases in the cost of credit in the economy, and that determinants of the likelihood to achieve a given current ratio are diagnostic precisely at the 1.0 discontinuity location but not at other nearby locations in the current ratio distribution. U.S. firms that avoid working capital deficits report lower proportions of inventory and higher proportions of accounts receivable in current assets and, when credit is tight, higher proportions of cash, consistent with managers increasing sales volume so as to capitalize profit margins and thereby increase current assets. For non‐U.S. firms, the discontinuity is more pronounced for observations from common law countries, a proxy for jurisdictions where financial reports are more intended to provide decision‐useful information. The evidence suggests that managers intervene to achieve a balance sheet reporting objective that stems from stakeholder use of reference points.     

Expensing Versus Capitalization

We develop a theoretical framework to study the effects of expensing versus capitalization of investment expenditures on capital market asset prices, corporate investment, and investment efficiency. We use a two‐period model in which the financial reports at the end of the first period influence the price of the firm. In the first period, the current owner makes an investment decision that yields returns during the first and the second periods. We highlight the benefits and costs of the matching principle in GAAP and identify conditions under which less disclosure improves investment efficiency. We find that, in terms of investment efficiency, expensing beats capitalization if and only if the expected growth rate is high, the growth volatility is large, or the earnings persistence is small. We also offer testable empirical implications for accounting choice and for real earnings management.     

Resource Allocation Effects of Price Reactions to Disclosures*

Capital market participants collectively may possess information about the valuation implications of a firm's change in strategy not known by the management of the firm proposing the change. We ask whether a firm's management can exploit the capital market's information in deciding either whether to proceed with a contemplated strategy change or whether to continue with a previously initiated strategy change. In the case of a proposed strategy change, we show that managers can extract the capital market's information by announcing a potential new strategy, and then conditioning the decision to implement the new strategy on the size of the market's price reaction to the announcement. Under this arrangement, we show that a necessary condition to implement all and only positive net present value strategy changes is that managers proceed to implement some strategies that garner negative price reactions upon their announcement. In the case of deciding whether to continue with a previously implemented strategy change, we show that it may be optimal for the firm to predicate its abandonment/continuation decision on the magnitude of the costs it has already incurred. Thus, what looks like “sunk‐cost” behavior may in fact be optimal. Both demonstrations show that, in addition to performing their usual role of anticipating future cash flows generated by a manager's actions, capital market prices can also be used to direct a manager's actions. It follows that, in contrast to the usual depiction of the information flows between capital markets and firms as being one way — from firms to the capital markets — information also flows from capital markets to firms.