对SHIBOR作为货币市场基准利率在货币政策框架转型下的基准性研究

基于上海银行间同业拆放利率（SHIBOR）报价时间的调整,通过选取银行间回购定盘利率与短期SHIBOR的报价数据,运用格兰杰因果关系检验的方法,对SHIBOR在报价时间调整前后两阶段的基准性进行了对比分析。研究结果表明：SHIBOR报价时间调整以后,在货币市场利率体系中的基准性地位不仅没有得到提升,反而出现了弱化的趋势。     

中国银行业的系统性风险研究——从隐性担保到优胜劣汰

文章通过构建一个同时涵盖银行间同业拆借市场与回购市场的矩阵法模型,对2006-2014年我国银行业系统性风险进行研究,主要考虑隐性担保与优胜劣汰机制对系统性风险的影响。研究发现,总体上我国银行业系统性风险在近年来稳定在低位,从隐性担保转变到优胜劣汰并不会大幅提高我国银行业的系统性风险水平,优胜劣汰机制有可能增强市场纪律性,从而降低其系统性风险。     

Interest Rate Pass-through in a Dual-track System： Evidence from China

Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interest rates during 2002-2012. The results indicate that the long-term pass-through from the interbank offered rates and deposit and loan interest rates to the treasury bond rate is incomplete, but that the long-term pass-through to private loan interest rates is overshooting. The long-term pass-through from the deposit and loan interest rates to the overnight interbank offered rate is incomplete, while that to the interbank offered rates of other maturities is complete. The short-term passthrough and adjustment speed of interest rates exhibit asymmetry. Therefore, before considering a full liberalization of interest rates, it is important to further enhance the competition of the financial system and the function of different interest rate systems, such as the interhank market and bond market.     

Japanese repo and call markets before,during, and emerging from the financial crisis

We empirically investigate the relationship between the Japanese general collateral (GC) repurchase agreement (repo) and uncollateralized call rates before, during, and emerging from the recent financial crisis. Unlike the US and many other countries, the Japanese GC repo rate had been higher than the uncollateralized call rate, despite the former being secured by collateral. Moreover, during the financial crisis, the Japanese GC repo rate rose, whereas the US Treasury GC repo rate decreased. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that segmentation between the Japanese repo and call markets was an important factor in explaining these features. Our results also imply that the Bank of Japan’s policy actions during and after the financial crisis were effective to some extent in lowering both the repo and call rates, and stabilizing the relationship between them.     

金融危机前后中国银行业系统性风险实证研究

文章基于网络模型量化分析了金融危机前后我国银行业系统性风险的特征。利用2006-2011年银行间市场中各类型金融机构拆出与拆入资金数据,建立了金融机构间关联网络模型。在此基础上,通过模拟测试可揭示冲击在各类型金融机构间传染过程,同时可以分析各类型金融机构间风险暴露特征。实证研究表明:金融危机前后任一类型金融机构违约不足以引发银行业系统性风险;国有商业银行和其他商业银行在银行间市场中处于核心位置。     

Direct Inflation Targeting and Nominal Convergence: The Czech Case

This study analyses the impact of direct inflation targeting (DIT) on monetary policy credibility in the Czech Republic, as evidenced by asset prices. It examines the effect of changes in the two-week repo rate (the official interest rate) on short and long–term market interest rates. It assumes the asymmetry of information and the existence of a stationary stochastic equilibrium with full knowledge of authorities reaction function. We find that at short maturities, the coefficients for changes in the official repo rate are lower in the DIT period than in the pre-crisis period. This implies that the hypothesis of no increase in the transparency of monetary policy with the introduction of DIT can be rejected. We find that bond yields and interest rate swap rates with maturities of 5 years and longer did not react significantly to official interest rate decisions in the DIT period. This is consistent with the hypothesis that monetary policy was credible both before and after introduction of DIT.     

SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET VOLATILITY,ASYMMETRY AND RETAIL INTEREST RATES PASS‐THROUGH

The purpose of this paper is to examine the interest rate transmission mechanism for South Africa as an emerging economy in a pre‐repo and repo system. It explains how the money market rate is transmitted to the retail interest rates both in the long run and short run, and tests the symmetric and asymmetric interest rate pass‐through using the error‐correction model (ECM) and the adjusted ECM‐exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ECM‐EGARCH) (1,1)‐M methodology. This permitted the examination of the impact of interest rate volatility, along with the leverage effect. An incomplete pass‐through is found in the short run. From the entire sample period, a symmetric adjustment is found in the deposit rate, which had upward rigidity adjustment, while an asymmetric adjustment is found in the lending rate, with a downward rigidity adjustment. All the adjustments supported the collusive pricing arrangements. According to the conditional variance estimation of the ECM‐EGARCH (1,1), negative volatility impact and leverage effect are present and influential only in the symmetric deposit interest rate adjustment process in South Africa.     

Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility Transmission Along the Yield Curve: The Case of Kenya

This paper analyses the degree to which volatility in interbank interest rates leads to volatility in financial instruments with longer maturities (e.g. T‐bills) in Kenya since 2012, year in which the monetary policy framework switched to a forward‐looking approach, relative to seven other inflation targeting (IT) countries (Ghana, Hungary, Poland, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand and Uganda). Kenya shows strong volatility transmission and high persistence similar to other countries in transition to a more forwardlooking monetary policy framework. These results emphasize the importance of a strong commitment to an interbank rate as an operational target and suggest that the central bank could reduce uncertainty in short‐term yields significantly by smoothing out the overnight interest rates around the policy rate.     

货币乘数存在吗——基于我国银行业资产负债数据的信贷传导机制有效性分析

商业银行以同业业务为主的非存款负债以及影子银行体系的发展大大弱化了货币乘数论的有效性,货币供给内生性增强。本文从理论及实证两个方面研究货币乘数论与银行信贷传导机制的有效性。对于央行能否影响商业银行贷款规模这一点,无论是理论分析还是实证检验的论据都不充分。实证研究表明：由于同业负债、理财业务以及出售持有债券获得流动性支持等外部融资渠道的存在,商业银行贷款并不一定受到存款约束,导致传统的货币乘数论失效。在法定准备金率这一数量型货币政策工具有效性降低的前提下,我国货币政策对于宏观经济的影响具有更大的不确定性,央行只有对商业银行等主体的放贷行为和货币创造能力实施有效控制,货币政策才能达到预期效果。     

中国货币政策工具调控信贷：实证新观点

文章通过构建包含流动性因素的货币信贷模型，以研究中国的货币政策工具调控信贷的动态影响机制，并结合中国的相关季度数据，构建时变参数状态空间模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明：信贷利率、法定存款准备金率、再贴现率和银行间同业拆借利率对中国信贷调控的影响与理论模型分析得到的动态影响机制比较一致；由于中国金融市场的特殊性，使得债券利率在调控信贷中的作用在2010年后出现失效的现象。建议中国在调控信贷方面还应以贷款利率、法定存款准备金率、再贴现率和银行间同业拆借利率的综合手段为主。     

Dynamics of Money Market Interest Rates in Ghana: Time-Frequency Analysis of Volatility Spillovers

As the second longest practicing inflation targeting economy in Africa, it is of interest to investigate the degree to which policy interest rate influences other money market rates so as to gauge the overall effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in Ghana. This study evaluates the degree of connectedness among money market rates and also determines the most dominant money market rate(s) in Ghana. The basic finding is that the monetary policy rate has a low-to-moderate influence on volatility dynamics of other money market rates in Ghana across historical time-interval and time-frequency domains. This is a reflection of a generally weak capability of policy interest rate to drive other market rates in Ghana. Both monetary policy rate and Treasury bill rate are net transmitters of shocks, while interbank, lending and saving rates are net receivers of shocks in the money market. However, the Treasury bill emerges as the largest shock transmitter in the money market, across all forecast horizons and analytical domains. The lending rate is the largest shock recipient in the money market, largely from the Treasury bill rate which suggests ample evidence of fiscal dominance in Ghana. The study accentuates the exigency for monetary and fiscal policies to expeditiously address the domestic structural bottlenecks, especially in the financial sector and the fragile fiscal profile, in order to strengthen policy transmission in Ghana.     

Interbank market frictions, international banks and growth

In developing countries and countries in transition, a lack of finance is regarded as a major reason for the underperformance of the SME sector. The financial sector does not channel funds efficiently from savers to the most efficient investment. In a general equilibrium endogenous growth model, we explain the underperformance of the SME sector by interbank market frictions. High information costs in the interbank market lead to a high loan/deposit spread and hence to a low growth equilibrium. The solution to this problem is twofold. First, central bank policy could reduce interbank information problems by providing effective bank supervision. Second, if the central bank is expected not to have sufficient monitoring capabilities, reputation and reserves, opening up the interbank market to international banks can substitute for insufficient central bank activities.The sources of this advantage in efficiency are stronger incentives for workers and managers (direct connection between effort and return), easier monitoring and greater flexibility (McIntyre 2001).     

Volatility transmission along the money market yield curve

Volatility Transmission along the Money Market Yield Curve. - The authors model the volatility of money market interest rates — and the transmission of volatility - along the money market yield curve in the UK, Germany, France and Spain. They find a significant volatility transmission from overnight to longer-term money market rates in France, Spain and the U.K. They also find that the countries with lower (higher) reserve requirements tend to have higher (lower) interbank interest rate volatility. However, reserve requirements generate a perverse seasonal effect at the end of the maintenance period.     

Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility of Returns? Some Evidence from High‐Frequency Intra‐Day South African Data

This paper examines the temporal effect of domestic monetary policy surprises on both returns and volatility of returns of the South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The analysis in this “event study” proceeds using intra‐day minute‐by‐minute exchange rate data, repo rate data from the South African Reserve Bank's scheduled monetary policy announcements, and market consensus repo rate forecasts. A carefully selected sample over the period August 2003 to November 2017 ensures that the change in monetary policy is exogenous to the exchange rate. We find statistically and economically significant responses in intra‐day high‐frequency South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns and volatility of exchange rate returns to domestic interest rate surprises, but anticipated changes have no bearing on exchange rate returns and their volatility. The empirical results also indicate that there is an instantaneous response of the rand/dollar exchange rate to monetary policy surprises and that monetary policy news is an important determinant of the exchange rate until at least 42 minutes after the pronouncement – suggesting a high degree of market “efficiency” in its mechanical sense (although not necessarily in the deeper economic‐informational sense) in processing this information. Essentially, the asymmetric GARCH results exhibit no leverage effects – positive and negative information shocks have symmetric effects on conditional variance.     

我国银行网络拓扑结构特征的实证研究

复杂网络理论是研究银行系统内在结构和功能的有力工具,文章通过估测银行同业拆借矩阵,基于银行间信用拆借关系采用阈值法构建了银行有向网络模型,并研究了银行网络的基本拓扑统计性质和聚类结构。实证研究表明:银行网络中少数节点具有较高的出度与入度,银行网络具有较高的聚集系数。同时对银行网络互惠性和派系的分析能有效地挖掘银行网络内在结构信息,有助于理解银行网络形成机制以及银行间风险传染行为。     

人民币实际有效汇率变动的中国产业结构升级效应

本文在劳动力市场动态均衡模型的基础上,通过构建厂商利润最大化模型,验证了汇率变动影响产业结构调整的传导机制;然后通过协整检验、误差修正模型检验和脉冲响应分析进一步对传导机制进行验证,并具体考察了1981～2010年度人民币实际有效汇率变动对中国产业结构调整的影响。研究结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率变动能够通过价格水平、对外贸易(出口和进口)和FDI 3条路径影响中国的产业结构调整。其中,价格水平和进口是两条重要路径,FDI的影响作用并不显著。人民币实际有效汇率升值能够促进中国产业结构的优化升级。     

INFLATION TARGETING AND THE FISHER EFFECT IN SOUTH AFRICA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

The paper analyses the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates during a period of inflation targeting in South Africa, i.e. from 2000 to 2005. Specifically, it investigates the Fisher hypothesis that nominal interest rates move one‐to‐one with expected inflation, leaving the real interest rate unaffected. The analysis distinguishes between a short‐run Fisher effect and a long‐run Fisher effect. Using cointegration and error correction models (for monthly data for the period April 2000 to July 2005), it was found that the short‐run Fisher hypothesis did not hold during the relevant period under the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa. This is attributed to a combination of the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) control over short‐term interest rates and the effects of the monetary transmission mechanism. The long‐run Fisher hypothesis could not be confirmed in its strictest form: while changes in inflation expectations move in the same direction as the nominal long‐term interest rate. This suggests that monetary policy has an influence on the real long‐term interest rate, which has positive implications for general economic activity, thus confirming the credibility of the inflation targeting framework.     

Do FX traders in Bishkek have similar perceptions to their London colleagues?: Survey evidence of market practitioners’ views

Do foreign exchange (FX) dealers from Kyrgyzstan, a low-income country, have similar perceptions to FX dealers from other international financial centers? Perceptions of Kyrgyz FX dealers in the interbank market are tested using detailed survey data against survey information from five major financial centers. The survey evidence finds that the FX dealers’ responses from the Kyrgyz interbank market differ from those of other international financial centers. Stark differences arise in the perceptions concerning the effectiveness of central bank interventions and the influence of speculation.     

从债券市场定价效率看利率市场化程度

利率市场化改革的最终目的是让市场最终决定资金的价格,相关市场主体成为市场的参与者和市场秩序的遵守者。市场对风险的定价能力是衡量利率市场化程度的重要参考指标。本文以银行间债券市场的中期票据为研究对象,考察债券市场风险定价的合理性。研究结果显示,银行间债券市场已经具备合理的风险定价能力,同时发现债券风险定价的能力与其流动性相关。流动性不足是制约风险定价能力的重要原因。     

LOCAL MUNICIPALITIES AND PROGRESS WITH THE DELIVERY OF BASIC SERVICES IN SOUTH AFRICA

In 1994, South Africa adopted the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) and emphasised the delivery of services to meet basic needs. Since then great strides have been made to redress past social inequalities. However, analysis of these successes have been limited to national or provincial aggregates, when much of the responsibility for meeting the RDP commitment lies at the local government level. The need for closer investigation is nonetheless clear from continuing protests over poor service delivery. This paper aims to shed more light on delivery at a local level by using data from the 2001 Census and 2007 Community Survey. The analysis involves the construction of a service delivery index for each municipality and analysis of variance to explain the changes in service delivery over the period 2001‐2007. The results show that improved service provision may require further urbanisation and densification. Also, local economic growth in itself may not be important, but it would contribute to the ability to pay for services and in that way aid delivery.