BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS, BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS AND THE BASEL ACCORDS: A SYNTHESIS

Abstract.  In order to survey the mechanisms through which the introduction of Basel II bank capital requirements is likely to accentuate the procyclical tendencies of banking, this paper brings together the theoretical literature on the bank capital channel of propagation of exogenous shocks and the literature on the regulatory framework of capital requirements under the Basel Accords. We conclude that the theoretical models that revisit the bank capital channel under the new accord generally support the Basel II procyclicality hypothesis and that the magnitude of the procyclical effects essentially depends on (i) the composition of banks' asset portfolios, (ii) the approach adopted by banks to compute their minimum capital requirements, (iii) the nature of the rating system used by banks, (iv) the view adopted concerning how credit risk evolves through time, (v) the capital buffers over the regulatory minimum held by the banking institutions, (vi) the improvements in credit risk management and (vii) the supervisor and market intervention under Basel II. The recent events and instability in financial markets all over the world have led the procyclicality issue to enter the agendas of several political international  fora  and some measures to mitigate procyclicality are being put forward. The bank capital channel literature should now play an important role in evaluating their effectiveness.     

Information asymmetry,capital adequacy,and market reaction to loan loss provision announcements in the banking industry

This study finds significantly negative abnormal returns accompanying press announcements of loan loss provisioning in the banking industry. The negative reactions are shown to arise from both an informational asymmetry regarding asset value and the costs associated with capital adequacy regulation. It is further shown that the market reaction depends upon the type of asset being provisioned. Announcements regarding the provisioning of foreign debt are accompanied by positive market reactions, while announcements of the provisioning of real estate loans and other types of debt are accompanied by negative market reactions.     

WHAT DRIVES CAPITAL FLOWS TO EMERGING MARKETS? A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This paper reviews the rapidly growing empirical literature on the drivers of capital flows to emerging markets. The empirical evidence is structured based on the recognition that the drivers of capital flows vary over time and across different types of capital flows. The drivers are classified using the traditional distinction between ‘push’ and ‘pull’ drivers, which continues to serve as a useful framework. Push factors like global risk aversion and external interest rates are found to matter most for portfolio debt and equity flows, but somewhat less for banking flows. Pull factors such as domestic output growth, asset returns and country risk matter for all three capital flows components, but most for banking flows.     

资本账户开放缩窄了商业银行利差吗？——来自41个新兴市场经济体的证据

银行利差反映银行业效率,研究资本账户开放对银行利差的影响及作用机理具有重要的现实意义。构建一个包含异质性企业的多部门分析框架,从微观层面剖析资本账户开放影响银行利差的内在机制,并运用41个新兴市场经济体国家1996—2016年的数据进行实证检验,研究结果表明：资本账户开放显著降低了商业银行利差,法定型和事实型开放指数每增加一单位标准差,银行利差分别下降0.68和0.90个百分点。由此可见,加快推进资本账户开放是新常态下提升银行业效率,降低社会融资成本,进而实现经济高质量发展的重要途径。商业银行应大力拓展非利息业务,促进产品和业务升级,创造新的盈利增长点,以弥补利差缩窄带来的不利影响。     

用经济资本理念提升商业银行价值

经济资本管理作为银行业重要的风险管理工具和方法,在商业银行预算计划、资源配置、结构调整、产品定价、绩效考核中发挥了重要作用,加强经济资本管理,对提升价值创造力显得非常必要。本文分析了经济资本管理与业务发展的关系,指出经济资本管理中存在的主要问题,提出了商业银行加强经济资本管理的对策。     

社会资本与非金融企业影子银行化

以2003—2019年我国非金融上市公司为样本,研究我国各省份社会资本水平差异对非金融企业影子银行化的影响及其内在作用机理。研究发现,地区社会资本与非金融企业影子银行化之间呈现显著的U型关系。机制检验发现,社会资本通过影响融资约束和信息不对称这两条渠道对非金融企业影子银行化产生影响。进一步分析发现,经济政策不确定性会弱化社会资本与非金融企业影子银行化的关系,且社会资本与非金融企业影子银行化之间的关系存在企业异质性,以上结论通过了稳健性检验。     

民营资本进入银行业的效应和策略分析

2010年以来民营资本进入银行业已取得较大的进展。民营资本适度进入银行业可以带来推动银行业的市场化改革、疏导民间资本、服务实体经济的正面效应，但也存在引发恶性竞争、弱化公司治理、威胁金融系统稳定的风险。民营资本进入银行业有资本的进入、机构的进入两种方式。我国政府应在完善政策规则框架、严格控制准入数量、引导民营资本严格自律、建立风险补偿和市场退出机制方面规范民营资本进入银行业。     

Commercial banks’ expanding into securities underwriting: The equity market’s risk assessment

Government officials must decide if the payments system and deposit insurance funds would be endangered by allowing commercial banks to underwrite corporate securities. In this study the authors provide evidence on the issue by evaluating the perspectives of equity investors in investment banking concerns. Dealer exposures to capital markets (investment banking and market making) are not perceived to contribute to their marginal riskiness—either systematic or nonsystematic. However, investment exposures to capital markets (merchant banking and principal transactions) add to both systematic and nonsystematic risks of participating firms. Along with the accounting-based previous research, these findings suggest granting new securities powers that are solely dealer-based.     

Assessing output and productivity growth in the banking industry

This paper assesses the evolution of output and productivity in the Greek banking industry for the period 1990–2006. Three main categories of bank output were estimated based on modern theoretical approaches, while for the estimation of output and productivity (partial and total factor) we relied on the index number method (Tornqvist index). We also considered the effect of labor quality on banks’ productivity and the contribution of total factor productivity to bank output growth. Bank output and labor productivity outpaced considerably the respective GDP growth and labor productivity of the Greek economy during the period under examination. Capital and total factor productivity have also improved remarkably mainly since 1999, due to the structural changes that took place within the industry, capital (mainly IT) investments and improvement in the quality of human capital.     

银行业:收益、股价及投资价值的比较分析

近年来,我国股票市场出现了一个奇异现象,即银行板块业绩优异,但其股价却严重偏离其价值。研究表明,出现这一奇特现象,不是因为该行业的股票盘子大,也不是因为政府融资平台和房地产泡沫等问题的存在导致该行业风险大,而是因为银行股波动性小,同时,也是因为相对来说我国上市公司中银行业经营管理规范、稳健,没有太多可炒作的题材,因此不受市场的投机性资金追捧。     

Productivity and efficiency dynamics in Indian banking: An input distance function approach incorporating quality of inputs and outputs

Banking technology is typically characterized by multiple inputs and multiple outputs that are associated with various attributes, such as different types of deposits, loans, number of accounts, classes of employees and location of branches. These quality differentials in inputs and outputs are mostly ignored in empirical studies. These omissions make the practical value of productivity studies in organizations like banks questionable because quality is a key component of performance. This paper proposes using hedonic aggregator functions (as a tool of aggregating inputs and outputs with quality attributes) within an input distance function framework and analyzes the impact of banking deregulation on efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) change in the Indian banking industry using panel data for the period 1996–2005. Empirical results indicate that banks have improved their efficiency (from 61% in 1996 to 72% in 2005) during the post‐deregulation period, and the gain in efficiency of state‐owned banks has surpassed that of private banks. Improvement in capital base, as indicated by increased capital adequacy ratio, played an important role in ushering efficiency gain. The return to scale estimate suggests that state‐owned banks are operating far above their efficient scale and cost savings can be obtained by reducing their size of operations. Overall, TFP growth was above 3.5% annually. Both technical progress and technical efficiency change consistently played an important role in shaping TFP growth. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investor protection,regulation and bank risk-taking behavior

This paper examines whether the influence of investor protection on banks’ risk is channeled through banking regulation, and vice-versa, using panel data from a sample of 567 European and US banks for the 2004–2015 period. As banking regulatory factors, we consider capital stringency, activity restrictions and private monitoring, whereas as investor protection factors, we consider the level of shareholder and creditor protection. We find that banking regulation moderates the positive direct influence of investor protection on banks’ risk, while investor protection reinforces the negative direct influence of banking regulation on risk. Moreover, we show that the negative effect of national regulations on banks’ risk is more pronounced during systemic crisis years. Finally, taking into account market competition, we argue that private monitoring only has a direct effect on banks’ risk, whereas the effects of capital stringency and activity restriction are channeled through market competition.     

Off the radar: Factors behind the growth of shadow banking in Europe

This paper uses novel data from the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem on non-bank financial intermediation to investigate the potential factors of shadow banking growth for a panel of twenty-four countries in the European Union (EU). We find that the EU shadow banking system is highly procyclical and positively related to increasing demand by long-term institutional investors and to more stringent capital regulation. We show that individual entities in the shadow banking system can act as both complements and substitutes to traditional banking. In addition, we estimate four country-specific models using a Bayesian estimation method. We supplement the panel model estimates, which serve as a priori information, with data from a specific economy. We assert that, although some shadow banking determinants are uniform across countries, other may have heterogeneous effects across countries because of country-specific characteristics.     

Institutional quality, governance, and financial development

Using banking sector and stock market development indicators, we examine the effect of institutional quality on financial development in developed and developing countries. Empirical results are based on dynamic system generalized method of moments estimations and demonstrate that a high-quality institutional environment is important in explaining financial development, specifically for the banking sector. However, the stock market development-institution relationship is contingent one, characterized by a non-monotonic pattern. The results are robust to two measurements of institutions and governance indicators, as well as estimation methods.     

Wealth effects of the Basle Accord on small banks

This paper examines the share price reactions of small commercial banks to the announcement of the Basle Accord. Previous studies document that large banks have negative price reactions to the announcement of the accord. Findings here show that small banks have positive share price reactions. Our overall evidence gives some support to the notion that small banks had excessive capital before the Basle Accord, and the Accord created wealth effects in the banking industry.     

Bank asset structure,real-estate lending,and risk-taking

The banking industry changed substantially in the 1990s as the number of banks declined rapidly, and as we document, commercial banks dramatically shifted their assets to real-estate loans. The portfolio restructuring seems to be followed mainly by capital-constrained banks as real-estate banks have lower risk-based-capital ratios relative to those of our benchmark group. Trading off credit risk for interest-rate risk is only one of the ways to arbitrage regulatory capital. We also show that real-estate banks keep higher ratios of fixed-rate loans to total assets and face higher probabilities of insolvency. The increasing proportion of banks specializing in real-estate lending, the incentives of regulatory discipline, and the weaknesses of risk-management strategies could stress the condition of the banking system during periods of large unexpected increases in interest-rates and are important issues for regulators and bank managers.     

基于省域视角的信用风险模型适应性分析

巴塞尔新资本协议在鼓励银行采用内部评级法评估信用风险以提取资本准备的同时也强化了各国监管机构对内部评级模型绩效检验与审查的要求.CreditMetrics和CreditRisk+是银行业信用风险评估的基准模型.从建模的数学方法看,CreditRisk+是基于违约的判断,而CreditMetrics则是根据等级变化评价.利用江苏省银监局的相关统计数据对信用风险评估模型进行参数特性审查与绩效检验,结果显示这两类常用模型都可以在江苏的商业银行经营实践中稳定地实现根据信贷组合的实际风险状况进行内部资本配置这一目标.     

银行业与制造业协同集聚的创新效应研究——基于中国257地级市数据的实证检验

基于中国工业企业数据和金融活动普查数据库,构建了银行业和制造业协同集聚指数,研究了银行业与制造业协同集聚对制造业企业新产品创新的影响效果,并对其中的影响机制进行了深入探究。实证研究结果表明：银行业与制造业协同集聚水平的提升有效地促进了制造业企业的创新行为;进一步研究发现,协同集聚水平的提升主要通过改善企业融资约束的水平和长期债务融资的获得,从而促进企业的创新。协同集聚对不同类型的企业创新具有异质性影响,其作用会因企业规模、所有制以及所在地区等因素存在差异。通过采用不同方法及样本的检验后,上述结论依然成立。研究结论为优化产业集聚演进、推动创新驱动战略的实施提供了新的依据。     

How and when female directors effectively cut down acquisition premiums

Grounded upon the group dynamics and the human capital literature, this paper proposes that the presence and conditions of female directors on a board substantially affect the acquisition decision. In detail, it argues that female board representation decreases the acquisition premium offered. It also examines the effects of female directors are contingent upon their conditions. When the females are inside, rather than outside, directors, their influence is greater. When the female directors have more prior acquisition experiences than male directors, the negative impact on premiums is strengthened, particularly when their acquisition experiences are those accumulated at acquirers rather than at targets. Empirical analyses on a sample of 1750 acquisitions made by US public firms in 2003–2013 provide evidence to support our predictions.     

EVA与银行业的价值创造

中国的银行业,近年来由于体制、不良资产等各方面的原因,造成了效率低下,并且从有关的EVA统计数据看出,中国的银行业不仅没有在创造价值甚至在毁灭价值。面对着WTO五年保护期的即将届满,以及外资银行的纷纷踏入,中国的银行业应该怎样来创造自身价值呢?本文从经济增加值(EVA)的计算公式出发,从五个环节指出了中国银行业怎样进行价值创造,并通过举例的方式进行形象的说明。