我国房地产价格与通货膨胀关系的实证分析

近年来,我国房地产等资产的价格高涨所引起的“资产泡沫型通货膨胀”现象比较明显。通过观察我国近年来房屋销售价格指数和居民消费价格指数的走势发现,房地产高涨与通货膨胀之间具有很大的联动作用。因此,研究房地产价格与通货膨胀的关系,寻找破解房地产价格高涨、缓解通货膨胀压力的方法,具有重要的学术研究价值和现实意义。本文利用Granger因果关系检验模型,验证了我国房地产价格与通货膨胀关系之间存在Granger因果关系,并围绕高房价是怎样影响通货膨胀的逻辑思路,提出破解高房价、缓解“资产泡沫型通货膨胀”压力的解决方法。     

物价调控背景下对平价商店几个问题的探讨

随着物价的持续上涨,中央做出了关于稳价安民的决策部署,并启动了重点扶持蔬菜大棚、冷藏设施和平价商店等"三项建设",以稳定农副产品价格。各地也出台了一些列控制物价上涨的政策措施,平价商店的建立,在一定程度上解决了群众生活成本上涨的问题。但平价商店在建设过程中,还存在诸多问题需要不断探讨和有效解决。     

Are consumers heterogeneous in their preferences for odd and even prices? Findings from a choice-based conjoint study

While marketing theories provide some justification for the common practice of setting 9-ending prices, the results of empirical studies are not conclusive on the effects of odd pricing. Nearly all empirical studies have been conducted at the aggregate consumer level, thereby implicitly assuming that consumers respond to odd prices homogeneously. In this research, we analyze consumers' preferences for 9-ending versus 0-ending prices at the individual level. Our findings suggest that some consumers strongly prefer 9-ending prices, whereas other consumers favor 0-ending prices. We further address the existence of level effects and investigate the influence of consumer characteristics on preferences for odd prices.     

Franchising versus corporate ownership: The effect on price dispersion

This paper uses data on the prices charged at fast-food restaurants in the metropolitan Pittsburgh and Detroit areas to assess the effect of franchising on price dispersion within chains in fairly narrowly defined geographical areas. A review of reasons why firms may face more price dispersion under franchising guides the empirical analyses. Results indicate that 1) franchisors do not aim for fully uniform prices even on the corporate side of their chains, 2) the degree of price dispersion is highest for firms with both franchised and company-owned units, as predicted by models implying a systematic price differential between units operated under these different contracting mechanisms, and 3) price dispersion for fully franchised chains is greater than for fully corporate chains. These last two results, combined with evidence from court cases that franchisors sometimes try to control franchisee prices directly, suggest that franchisors indeed lose some amount of control over prices charged to customers when they use franchising as opposed to corporate ownership. Finally, I find a positive effect of the royalty rate on price dispersion. This suggests that double marginalization is behind at least some of the higher prices found in franchised units in the existing literature.     

商品房销售明码标价问题的思考

在商品房销售中推行明码标价,常常遭遇"上有政策、下有对策",个别商品房没有明码标价、部分商品房标价内容不全、有些商品房明码标价不实,并存在商品房标价外搭车收费和标价中的欺诈行为。为此,必须完善商品房明码标价制度、构建商品房价格公开平台、对商品房进行科学核价、加大违法行为的惩戒力度、提高明码标价政策执行力,让商品房销售明码标价政策惠及广大购房者。     

Learning unit prices in a new currency

In the European Union, some citizens adapt to the Euro transition by converting the new currency to the old familiar one (‘re‐scaling’), whereas some adapt by learning the product prices in the Euro (‘re‐learning’). Employing a total of 65 undergraduates in two laboratory experiments, factors that may make such price learning difficult were identified. In Experiment 1, learning of unit prices for cellular phone calls from sequences of duration–price examples was more difficult when a fixed connection fee is added to the price of each call. Witnessing the adverse impact of price variation, Experiment 2 showed that simultaneous learning of several unit prices was less accurate than learning of single unit price.     

Pricing of New Securities in an Incomplete Market: the Catch 22 of No-Arbitrage Pricing

There are two distinctly different approaches to the valuation of a new security in an incomplete market. The first approach takes the prices of the existing securities as fixed and uses no-arbitrage arguments to derive the set of equivalent martingale measures that are consistent with the initial prices of the traded securities. The price of the new security is then obtained by appealing to certain criteria or on the basis of some preference assumption. The second method prices the new security within a general equilibrium framework. This paper clarifies the distinction between the two approaches and provides a simple proof that the introduction of the new security will typically change the prices of all the existing securities. We are left with the paradox that a genuinely new derivative security is not redundant, but the dominant pricing paradigm in derivative security pricing is the no-arbitrage approach, which requires the redundancy of the security. Given the widespread practice of using the no-arbitrage approach to price (or bound the price of) a new security, we also comment on some justifications for this approach.     

Trade and prices with heterogeneous firms

This paper estimates a heterogeneous firms trade model using sector level data on export participation, trade flows, and unit value prices in a multi-country setting. Examining within-exporter variation in prices across destinations, prices are increasing in the difficulty of entering the destination market in the majority of sectors. This pattern is consistent with models in which product quality is positively correlated with firm size. However, prices decrease in export thresholds in some large sectors, including autos, apparel, and electronics. I discuss the causes and consequences of this cross-sector heterogeneity. From an accounting perspective, selection into exporting explains a small fraction of overall price variation, but accounts for nearly half of variation in bilateral trade.     

世界粮食危机的诱因及应对

2007年以来全球因粮食供应紧张而导致粮食价格上涨,已在多个国家引起恐慌.文章对粮食危机的成因进行了分析,指出了偶发性、周期性、货币性、结构性诸多因素引发了粮食危机,而粮食短缺将是长期趋势.国际粮价上涨将带动国内粮价上涨,但影响有限.     

Price Awareness and Consumers’ Use of Deals in Brand Choice

There is evidence that consumer knowledge of prices is limited, implying that, on occasions, consumers may not be fully informed of prices when making a brand purchase. On such occasions, how do consumers make their brand choice decision? One possibility is that consumers use their expectation of prices. This raises an interesting question. To what extent is brand purchase either a function of preferences and posted prices or, of preferences and expectation of brand prices? Another important issue relates to the role of displays and features in simplifying consumer brand choice. First, do promotions cause consumers to restrict their attention to only promoted brands? Second, do promotions affect the price aware consumers more than the price unaware consumers? Our study uses scanner data on ketchup and peanut butter categories to answer the foregoing questions. We find that between 40 and 50% of the purchases are made by consumers using expectations of prices rather than posted prices. Consumers using price expectations may be thought of as being “unaware” of prices. We also find that promotions cause some consumers to focus exclusively on promoted brands, and this effect is greater on the price aware consumers than on the price unaware consumers. Our findings have an important bearing on the rationality of consumer expectation of prices, especially of the promoted brands. Price aware consumers act as a check against firms promoting without accompanying price cuts.     

ON ARBITRAGE AND DUALITY UNDER MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRAINTS

We consider the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) and the hedging prices of options under nondominated model uncertainty and portfolio constraints in discrete time. We first show that no arbitrage holds if and only if there exists some family of probability measures such that any admissible portfolio value process is a local super‐martingale under these measures. We also get the nondominated optional decomposition with constraints. From this decomposition, we obtain the duality of the super‐hedging prices of European options, as well as the sub‐ and super‐hedging prices of American options. Finally, we get the FTAP and the duality of super‐hedging prices in a market where stocks are traded dynamically and options are traded statically.     

ANALYTIC APPROXIMATIONS FOR MULTI‐ASSET OPTION PRICING

We derive general analytic approximations for pricing European basket and rainbow options on N assets. The key idea is to express the option’s price as a sum of prices of various compound exchange options, each with different pairs of subordinate multi‐ or single‐asset options. The underlying asset prices are assumed to follow lognormal processes, although our results can be extended to certain other price processes for the underlying. For some multi‐asset options a strong condition holds, whereby each compound exchange option is equivalent to a standard single‐asset option under a modified measure, and in such cases an almost exact analytic price exists. More generally, approximate analytic prices for multi‐asset options are derived using a weak lognormality condition, where the approximation stems from making constant volatility assumptions on the price processes that drive the prices of the subordinate basket options. The analytic formulae for multi‐asset option prices, and their Greeks, are defined in a recursive framework. For instance, the option delta is defined in terms of the delta relative to subordinate multi‐asset options, and the deltas of these subordinate options with respect to the underlying assets. Simulations test the accuracy of our approximations, given some assumed values for the asset volatilities and correlations. Finally, a calibration algorithm is proposed and illustrated.     

基于ELES模型的我国农村居民消费需求价格弹性分析

利用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES),并借助SPSS13.0统计软件对2009年我国农村居民消费需求价格弹性进行实证分析。结果发现农村居民人均年纯收入与各项消费支出高度相关;农村居民各项消费需求自价格弹性都为负值,位居前三位的分别是交通通讯、居住、文教娱乐用品及服务;农村居民各项消费需求互弹性都小于0,互价格弹性绝对值小于自价格弹性绝对值;各类消费品价格变动对交通通讯需求量影响最大;食品价格变动对其他各类消费品需求量影响最大。最后提出降低交通通讯、居住、文教娱乐用品及服务价格、调整食品价格,使食品价格保持在合理水平、提高农村居民收入等建议。     

Petroleum Mergers and Competition in the Northeast United States

Sunoco’s 2004 acquisition of El Paso’s, New Jersey refinery and Valero’s 2005 acquisition of Premcor’s Delaware refinery significantly consolidated refinery control in the US Northeast. The Federal Trade Commission investigated both transactions but challenged neither. We examine the FTC’s enforcement rationale and test whether these mergers were associated with post-merger price increases in either gasoline or diesel at retail and wholesale. Our findings indicate that the transactions were largely competitively neutral. There was some indication that some unbranded rack prices may have increased after the mergers, but this result was not robust across controls or assumptions. In some other instances, prices in merger-affected areas may have fallen relative to prices elsewhere.     

Quantifying the housing recovery: which MSAs are experiencing bubbles?

The housing market is one of the most cyclical parts of the U.S. economy and played a leading role in the Great Recession. While house prices have recovered, the extent of the recovery varies considerably across markets. We evaluate housing prices in 20 MSAs and find that 12 out of them show a consistent pattern of behavior relative to the nation, while eight cities’ house price indices (HPIs) are characterized as having inconsistent behavior. Our analysis found breaks in the time series behavior of all HPIs. Furthermore, some MSAs, such as New York and Miami, began to recover much sooner than others. Granger causality test results suggest that some MSAs lead the national average and most of the other MSAs. Thus, our study suggests that changes in housing prices in a number of MSAs would provide an early warning for price moves at the national and regional levels.     

Some implications of search and switching costs for the price dynamics of electronic markets

This article develops a model, based on switching costs and technological uncertainty, which explains some aspects of the price dynamics of e‐commerce. Switching costs and intertemporal cost correlation lock‐in consumers. Firms initially charge low prices to build a customer base. If firms fail to reduce costs, and reservation prices are low, firms exit the industry. Over time, prices increase if no exit occurs, and decrease if exit occurs. Prices may also decrease over time, if the proportion of low search cost consumers increases.     

Dynamic impact of negative public sentiment on agricultural product prices during COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significantly negative impact on public sentiment, which has resulted in panic and some irrational buying behavior, which in turn has had a complex impact on agricultural product prices. This study quantified online negative sentiment using micro-blog text mining and a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) to empirically analyze the dynamic impact of negative public emotions on agricultural product prices during the COVID-19 pandemic in China. It was found that the online negative sentiment impacted agricultural products prices during COVID-19 and had significant time-varying, lag, and life cycle characteristics, with the responses being most significant in the spread and recession periods. Differences were found in the price responses for different agricultural products and in different risk areas. The online negative sentiment was found to have the greatest impact on vegetable prices, with livestock products and vegetable prices being mainly positively impacted, fruit prices being mainly negatively impacted, and aquatic product prices being negatively impacted in the early stage and positively impacted in the middle and late stages. The online negative sentiment had the greatest impact on medium-risk area agricultural product prices, followed by low-risk areas, with the lowest impact found on the high-risk area agricultural product prices. Three policy suggestions for epidemic monitoring, public opinion guidance and control, and the timely release of agricultural product information are given based on the results.     

国际市场对我国大宗农产品价格的影响分析

2011年国际大宗农产品价格飙升,至今仍有可能再创新高。通过对其上涨的原因和影响我国大宗农产品价格水平的分析,提出了相应的解决对策及建议。     

A DIFFUSION MODEL FOR ELECTRICITY PRICES

Starting from a simple supply/demand model for electricity, we obtain a diffusion (i.e., jumpless) model for spot prices which can exhibit price spikes. We estimate the parameters in the model using historical data from the Alberta and California markets. and compare this model with some others used for spot prices.     

Regionale Verteilungseffekte geldpolitischer Maßnahmen auf dem Immobilienmarkt

For some years now, the ECB is responding to the current deflationary phase and slow economic growth in the Euro zone with a low interest policy and bond purchasing programs. This has led to a surge in real asset prices, such as real estate. Inflation in residential property prices however varies regionally as a result of differences in supply elasticities. Thus, highest growth in prices could be observed in metropolitan areas. This article shows that such developments may lead to an increasing housing wealth inequality due to existing housing wealth distributions, local differences in homeownership, and barriers to entry to the property market. Additionally, these effects might be strengthened by indirect effects, such as filtering, rent-seeking, gentrification, and segregation.