A Dynamic Approach to Population Change in Central Cities and Their Suburbs, 1980–1990

A bstract .   With the growing concern over the causal relationship between crime and population change, this study readdresses the importance of economic organization in studying population change in a metropolitan area. This study investigates the dynamic influences of internal and external factors on population change in either central cities or their suburbs. The units of analysis in this study are the 142 U.S. central cities and their suburban rings of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in 1980 and 1990. Two change models (semi-difference and mixed-difference models) are used to predict population change. The results demonstrate that population change in one territory of a metropolitan area is affected by crime and employment opportunity in both locations of a metropolitan area.     

Population decentralization within metropolitan areas: 1970-1980

Using a data set that maintains geographic and fiscal continuity over time and across a sample of major U.S. metropolitan areas, the authors identify factors of economic and population decentralization that affected central city areas between 1970 and 1980. The problems of annexation are resolved by estimating population changes for central cities and suburban areas with constant 1980 boundaries, and by calculating fiscal variables from overlapping jurisdictions by city area as opposed to municipal city government only. "The empirical investigation supports the view that demographic and housing stock variables seem to have had a greater impact on decentralization than central city-suburban fiscal differences."     

Spatial distribution of the specialization of arts

The hypothesis is that the major source of concentration of arts in different regions is due to agglomeration effects of specialized talents, city size, income, and quality of life. Twenty-nine large metropolitan areas are ranked and assessed for enhancing the climate for arts activity. Data on metropolitan areas in the United States on cost of living, transportation, employment, education, climate, crime, health care, recreation, city size, and per capita income are used as explanations for predominance of art in the 29 metropolitan areas. The results indicate that cities with larger populations and higher per capita income have greater concentrations of artistic activity. Other explanatory variables include factors associated with the quality of life. (JEL RIO, R23)     

An Examination of the Link Between Employment Volatility and the Spatial Distribution of Property Crime Rates

Abstract . Recent criminological research has produced inconsistent findings in its attempts to establish a statistical relationship between economic marginalization and the spatial distribution of crime rates. This paper contends that this inconsistency is partly attributable to the way in which economic marginalization has been conceptually defined and measured. By focusing strictly on unemployment and poverty as the processes that produce economic marginalization, researchers have ignored other important economic dynamics that can marginalize workers and provide an environment conducive to crime. Further, commonly used indicators of economic marginalization, such as the unemployment rate and poverty rate, fail to measure the full range of dynamics that produce marginalization. It is our contention that employment volatility represents an important source of economic marginalization that can help foster higher levels of criminal activity. This hypothesis is tested using regression procedures to analyze the effects of employment volatility measures and frequently identified structural correlates of crime on change in the rate of property crime offenses across 683 U.S. metropolitan counties during the 1980–1983 period. The findings suggest that high levels of employment volatility are conducive to the maintenance of higher levels of property crime in general, as well as less severe forms of property crime such as larceny, when such crimes are examined on an individual basis.     

The spatial structure of Latin American cities

"Using published census data, metropolitan area population and employment statistics are constructed for several large Latin American cities in 1950, 1960, and 1970, and compared to similar statistics from selected North American cities. The Latin cities are experiencing decentralization of population and some decentralization of employment. Overall population density patterns of large Latin cities resemble those in older North American cities; newer North American cities have lower densities and are much more decentralized than Latin cities. High-status groups are somewhat concentrated in the central cities of Latin American metropolitan areas, but their concentrations there are declining."     

Estimation and recent behavior of urban population and employment density gradients

The monocentric model of urban structure predicts that urban population density declines with distance from the central business district. Using the negative exponential function to approximate the decline, Mills (E. S. Mills, “Studies in the Structure of the Urban Economy,” Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, Md. (1972)) estimated population and employment density gradients from 1948 to 1963 for a sample of 18 SMSAs. This paper updates Mills' estimates and examines recent patterns in population and employment suburbanization. The updated series estimated here is obtained using a “corrected” version of Mills' method. The original procedure incorporated a bias which Mills noted and later corrected (E. Mills and K. Ohta, in “Asia's New Giant” (Patrick and Rosovsky, Eds.), The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (1976)). The comparability of the series begun by Mills and extended here is not interrupted, however, because, as Mills suspected, the bias is indeed small provided SMSA data are used. On the other hand, Urbanized Area definitions of metropolitan areas cause the original and corrected versions to yield significantly different results. This finding has implications for the appropriate choice of data for urban studies.     

The flight to the suburbs of population and employment, 1960-1970

An econometric model of suburbanization in the United States is developed. The model is used to analyze changes in location of the population, classified by income and race, and of employment in 106 large SMSAs over the period 1960-1970. The results confirm that the differential mobility of upper-income and white residents has been a powerful force concentrating low-income and nonwhite residents in central cities. The interaction of population and employment location is confirmed.     

郊区化过程中职住迁移关系研究——以北京市为例

居住与就业关系反映了郊区化的核心动力机制,但由于忽视居住与就业的迁移关系,很多城市出现了大城市病和城市蔓延等问题.以北京市为例,将城市划分为城区和郊区两类空间,人群分为总人口、户籍人口和暂住人口,用1991-2008年各区县人口和从业人员统计数据,采用向量自回归模型,分别探讨城市和郊区三种人口居住与就业的迁移关系.结论...     

Firm suburbanization and urban subcenters

The theory of firm location within an urban area is extended to consider a city in which firms can export their output via a suburban terminal as well as via the usual CBD terminal. Firms benefit from suburbanization since freight transport costs are reduced and since they can pay lower wages, but labor may be scarce in the suburbs. This forces suburban firms to readjust their wages, causing some workers to out-commute and giving all workers an incentive to relocate. The existence of an employment subcenter under labor scarcity conditions is shown to cause household utility levels to rise, the size of the metropolitan area to increase, and overall urban land value to change indeterminately. Finally, determination of the optimal location for a suburban terminal is considered.     

当代美国城市化演变、趋势及其新特点

二战后美国城市化向郊区化或逆城市化阶段转变,人口、工厂、商店及各种机构从大城市中心迁移出去,在外围的郊区及小城镇重新定址.在城市化演变过程中,由城市中心及郊区次级中心组成新型的大城市地区逐渐多中心化乃至无中心化,整个大城市地区支离破碎.与此同时,城市系统趋于集群化,幅员辽阔的大城市地区经济经过分化与整合,城市化向非城市地区扩散与渗透,出现了新的城市化影响地区,对城乡地区构成了深远的影响.     

Analyzing the Relationships among Race,Wealth, and Home Ownership in America

This paper presents new evidence on the determinants of the large disparities in home ownership by race in the U.S. Consistent with results first reported by P. Linneman and S. M. Wachter (1989,AREOFA J.7, No. 4, 389–402), we find noceteris paribusracial differences in ownership rates among white and minority households who possess sufficient wealth to meet down payment and closing cost requirements associated with standard mortgage underwriting criteria. However, substantial racial differences among wealth-constrained households exist, with constrained whites owning at higher rates than observationally equivalent minority households. Because minorities are disproportionately constrained by wealth-related underwriting standards, these differentials apply to roughly one-third of the white households in our samples and well over one-half of the minority sample. A multinomial model that treats central city versus suburban location as a choice variable in addition to tenure status is also estimated. The results show that even among households unconstrained by wealth-related underwriting considerations, minorities are much more likely than whites to own in central city locations. Thus, while controlling for wealth constraint status does eliminate tenure choice differences among the unconstrained, location differences remain for this group. They also are present among constrained households. Given the disparate fortunes of central city and suburban land markets in many metropolitan areas, this racial location pattern of ownership may have important long-run impacts on wealth distribution by race.     

Self-employment and job generation in metropolitan areas, 1969–2009

Many regional development policy initiatives assume that entrepreneurial activities promote economic growth. Empirical research has presented rationale for this argument showing that small firms create proportionally more new jobs than large firms. However, little research has been performed on the issue of net job generation at the urban level, particularly when self-employment is considered as an indicator of entrepreneurial activities. This paper investigates to what extent US metropolitan areas in the 1969–2009 period characterized by relatively high rates of self-employment also have shown relatively high rates of subsequent total employment growth. The analysis corrects for the influence of sectoral composition, wage level, educational attainment, presence of research universities and size of the metropolitan area to measure the extent to which the number and quality of self-employed in a region contribute to total employment growth. It finds the relationship between self-employment rates and subsequent total employment growth to be positive on average during the 40-year period but to weaken over time.     

Household formation and suburbanization, 1970-1980

The author attempts to establish whether the recent increases in some population subgroups in central cities in the United States is the start of a trend or a temporary phenomenon. Data are from the 1970 and 1980 censuses. The author concludes that the increase is a temporary one that is primarily due to an increase in the size of certain cohorts. The overriding trend is toward suburbanization, and the author concludes that the increase in central city populations will cease as cohorts decline in size.     

Tiebout Revisited: Redrawing Jurisdictional Boundaries

Central city households who subsidize local public sector goods through local property taxes have an incentive to flee from the city or to change the jurisdiction's boundary. We focus on the latter case, a neighborhood's attempt to deannex from a central city and subsequently annex to a suburb. The difficult theoretical problem is to explain why a large percentage of central city voters supported the deannexation proposal, most apparently becoming worse off if the issue was approved. While no explanation is consistent with fully rational voters, it appears that high property value owning voters supported the attempt in hope of being part of the next wave of deannexers.     

石家庄都市区城乡一体化进程与空间组织

随着城乡差距的日益加大,都市区成为实现城乡一体化的重点区域.本文对石家庄都市区城乡一体化进程现状特征和问题进行了分析,发现石家庄都市区虽然进行了“退二进三”功能调整,但临近市区的四县市与远离市区的十三县市产业结构雷同、发展水平相当,严重阻碍了石家庄都市区竞争优势的发挥.由此提出了“强化中心、壮大外围、联动城乡、优化体系...     

城市中心地的功能结构特点与影响因素演变

认为不同规模的居民点构成中心地等级体系,人口规模与密度仅能提高中心地的市场规模,而不能提升市场的功能等级;区域交通条件的改善在城市化阶段有利于高级中心地的发展,在郊区化与逆城市化阶段则有利于低级中心地的复兴,产生大城市的衰退;世界经济一体化使得小城市可以有大市场,城市功能等级不再取决于人口规模,而是城市竞争力。     

京津冀都市区统计与当前城市统计的比较研究

近年来,随着京津冀地区城市化进程的快速推进,中心城区不断向外扩张,加上周边农村地区的发展,城乡之间的经济与社会联系加强,都市区逐渐形成并发展。对京津冀都市区发展状况进行分析,在此基础上将都市区统计和当前城市统计进行对比,发现都市区是人口和经济活动的主要聚集地,是真正具备城市功能的地域;都市区代表了区域内更高的产业结构和发展水平;都市区统计能够更好地反映城市化快速发展的状况。最后总结了中国建立规范的都市区统计制度的必要性和迫切性,并从都市区的视角提出了促进京津冀区域内产业协调发展和统筹城乡发展的策略建议。     

Intrametropolitan migration: A simultaneous model of employment and residential location of white and black households

This study explores the relationship between the home and job location of the household within a metropolitan area. The model is an extension of the Alonso-Muth framework and allows the household to simultaneously choose its residential and employment location, monthly rent, number of rooms and the type of structure of the dwelling unit, so as to maximize its utility subject to the budget constraint.The data base is the Home Interview Survey conducted in 1965 by the (San Francisco) Bay Area Transportation Study Commission. The coefficients in the simultaneous model are estimated by two-stage least squares. The cross-section sample is stratified by tenure into renters and homeowners; by race into black and white households; and further by position in the life-cycle.The results of the location equations reveal that both the home and job location are responsive to each other which implies that the decentralization of jobs will result in the decentralization of residences for black households. The results of the housing equations imply that black and white households have almost identical elasticity of demand for housing. There is very slight evidence of price discrimination against black households. However, there is evidence that black households do face a geographical segregated market for rental housing.The results of this study argue that the decentralization of population is not due solely to rising incomes and will continue as long as industry decentralizes. Furthermore, governmental policies of increasing the income of central city residents, through subsidies to employers to locate in the central city will have a strong effect: inducing those residents to remain in or move into the central city. Thus, a policy that is meant to alleviate the plight of the city center may only result in strengthening the racial and income split between the suburb and the central city inhabitants.