Accounting Problems in Infrastructure Asset Valuation and Depreciation in New South Wales Local Government

The aim of this paper is twofold: (i) to investigate whether New South Wales (NSW) local government councils comply with Australian Accounting Standards in accounting for revaluation of their infrastructure assets and (ii) to assess any consequences for the reliability of financial reporting in NSW local government. Using road assets as an example, we analyse the results of revaluations of road assets undertaken by 89 NSW councils as reported in their financial statements during the period 2013 to 2016. In this analysis we focus on the effect of a change in accumulated depreciation and impairment loss component of fair value as a percentage of the gross replacement cost of the revalued assets. The analysis reveals that in most cases this effect is significant. However, the accounting and reporting of this effect is strikingly inconsistent between the councils. Based on a critical analysis of the accounting framework and disclosure of the revaluation effects, we conclude that the main reason for the change in the fair value of assets is altered estimates of remaining useful life. Furthermore, we argue that councils did not comply with the requirements of AASB 116 in determining the useful life of the assets.     

Financial Distress in Australian General Insurers

We develop and test a statistical model to identify Australian general insurers experiencing financial distress over the 1999–2001 period. Using a logit model and two measures of financial distress we are able to predict, with reasonable confidence, the insurers more likely to be distressed. They are generally small and have low return on assets and cession ratios. Relative to holdings of liquid assets they have high levels of property and reinsurance assets, and low levels of equity holdings. They also write more overseas business, and less motor insurance and long‐tailed insurance lines, relative to fire and household insurance.     

Infrastructure Public‐Private Partnerships: “Partnerships” Come to Fruition

P3s are generally structured as long‐term leases of municipal assets like toll roads, ports, and airports by private investors/operators. Five years ago, municipalities viewed such partnerships primarily as a means of raising capital, and they often viewed maximizing the up‐front proceeds as the primary goal of the transactions. Today's P3s have been re‐defined to focus beyond the bottom line and toward the goal of developing sustainable long‐term partnerships between the public and private sectors. As three transactions from the past year are used to demonstrate, the P3 has emerged as a way for governments to achieve sustainable reinvestment in needed infrastructure while also using the best practices of the private sector to increase the efficiency of and revenue from their asset operations.     

AN EPISTEMIC COMMUNITY AS INFLUENCER AND IMPLEMENTER IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTING IN AUSTRALIA

This paper explicates the dual role of epistemic communities as influencers of accounting policy within regulatory space and as implementers who effect change within the domain of accounting. Set within the context of New South Wales in Australia, and the challenge of the financial sustainability of its local councils, the study was informed by documentary sources, and used data from interviews and a survey. Accounting and finance professionals, as an epistemic community, played a pivotal role in formulating accounting policy and in embedding fair value measurement of infrastructure assets.     

Community Asset Valuations by Non‐profit Government Entities

This paper examines an implication of applying International Financial Reporting Standards to the government sector in Australia. We posit both a self‐interest and a transparency motivation for local governments effecting revaluations of both infrastructure assets and community land. The self‐interest motivation was expected to manifest as a relationship between the amount of revaluation and CEO (or management team) remuneration. The transparency motivation was expected to result in a relationship between revaluation and the extent of spending on these assets, measured as both the quantum of materials and contracts expense, and as the quantum of contracts awarded by the entity above the disclosure threshold. We also speculated that revaluations may be used to signal to state governments a need for additional funds through capital and/or operating grants. At conventional levels of significance, we find no support for these relationships, suggesting that agency motivations at the local government level are either more subtle or non‐existent. As local government authorities in our study follow a reporting framework and standardised accounting procedures prescribed by the state government (in compliance with applicable AASB/IFRS standards), financial and public accountabilities are also likely to be a driver for the valuation of local infrastructure assets at fair value, and this is not likely to be undermined by the opportunistic incentives we have considered.     

How do banks resolve firms’ financial distress? Evidence from Japan

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate how banks resolve firms?? financial distress in Japan. Our results show that distressed firms that have more unsecured bank debt are more likely to restructure debt successfully out of court. Second, private debt restructuring is conducted during the year in which a financially distressed firm would be compelled to report negative net worth because of substantial accounting losses if no debt restructuring plans were implemented. Third, firms that are already in a negative net worth situation are more likely to receive debt forgiveness and/or debt-for-equity swaps. Finally, both the 1-year-lagged total liabilities-to-assets ratio and accounting losses are positively related to the private workout level. These results suggest that banks resolve firms?? financial distress in shareholders?? and creditors?? interests. We argue that, along with bankruptcy laws, the stock exchange rules and the fact that banks are allowed to hold shares in these firms affect the resolution of firms?? financial distress.     

FREE CASH FLOW AND PUBLIC GOVERNANCE: THE CASE OF ALASKA

In a widely cited 1986 article in the American Economic Review, Michael Jensen gave the concept of free cash flow (FCF) a new twist by redefining it as cash flow in excess of that required to fund all projects with positive net present values. Put another way, FCF represents funds available in the firm that managers may choose to hold as idle cash, return to shareholders, or invest in projects with returns below the firm's cost of capital. In redefining FCF in this way, Jensen converted FCF from a measure of economic income and value into a measure of corporate assets available for discretionary, and potentially value‐destroying, use by firm managers. And, as he argued in his important article, managers in mature businesses with substantial free cash flow have a tendency to destroy value by plowing too much capital back into those businesses or, often worse, making ill‐advised acquisitions in unrelated businesses. Several methods have been developed in financial markets and internal corporate governance systems to discourage managers from wasting FCF. Better monitoring by boards of directors, large ownership blocks, and properly aligned management compensation contracts are all parts of the solution. And the extraordinary increase in stock repurchases in recent years, invariably applauded by investors, is another illustration of the market's success in encouraging companies to address their free cash flow problems. But if the “FCF problem” of the private sector has attracted considerable attention from finance scholars, the problem is even more acute in the public sector, where FCF can be thought of as tax revenue in excess of what is required to finance well‐defined and generally accepted levels of public services. Unlike the private sector, in the public sector there are neither measures nor mechanisms by which to monitor and constrain wasteful spending by elected officials. In this article, the authors attempt to measure the costs to taxpayers of government FCF using the case of Alaska, which since 1969 has received a huge windfall of tax revenue from North Slope oil leases. After examining the state's public finances from 1968 through 1993, the authors offer $25 billion as a conservative estimate of the social losses from Alaska's waste of free cash flow during that 25‐year period.     

Divestments and financial distress in leveraged buyouts

This paper investigates the wealth effects of 134 divestments by 41 firms that underwent leveraged buyouts in the 1980s. Stock in these companies is privately owned. Bond returns for publicly traded debt are used to measure the wealth effects of the divestment announcement. These divestments are, on average, not associated with significant wealth effects for the full sample. However, firms that experience financial distress have negative and significant abnormal returns associated with their divestments, while returns in non-event months are insignificant. In contrast, non-distressed firms gain when asset sales are announced. The losses suffered by bondholders in distressed sellers are large and significant when core assets are divested. Bondholders in these firms do not suffer significant losses when non-core assets are divested. Finally, abnormal bond returns are related to the structure of the firms' post-buyout debt. Returns are negatively related to the use of private debt in the capital structure and positively related to the use of subordinated debt.     

The Association between Board Composition and Corporate Pension Policies

This study examines the role of board composition in the determination of pension policies. The results suggest that the proportion of outside directors serving on the board is positively related with pension plan funding levels. In addition, the proportion of outside directors mitigates the relation between financial distress risk and plan underfunding. Last, as firms approach distress, boards with a greater proportion of outside directors tend to allocate a lower fraction of plan assets to riskier securities. Together, our findings suggest that outside directors are mindful of their obligations toward pension plan beneficiaries.     

Pricing Final Indemnification Payments to Private Sponsors in Project-Financed Public-Private Partnerships: An Application of Real Options Valuation

The extraordinary global growth in the private funding of public infrastructure projects in the form of public‐private partnerships (or PPPs) is expected to have major social and economic benefits—benefits that result in large part from improving the allocation of project risks between the public and private sectors. But with the financial crisis and severe tightening of credit likely to limit the financing and delivery of new projects, both project participants and their financiers need to manage the technical, economic, legal, and political complexities of infrastructure projects more carefully, especially in less traditional infrastructure deals that involve complex operations, new assets, or emerging markets. This paper proposes and illustrates the application of the real options valuation approach to a critical feature of most PPPs: establishing the final “indemnification” amount to be paid by a public administration to private partners in the project financing of those PPPs that face substantial market risks. In demonstrating this approach, the authors use the case of the Pedemontana Lombarda toll road, a major transportation infrastructure project in Northern Italy for which financial plans have been filed and whose start is now pending. The main function of real options in this case is to capture the effects on value of the major market risk in such projects—namely, the uncertainty about volume of traffic on the new road. The authors interpret the final indemnification price as the value of a real put option sold by the awarding authority to private investors (in the case of a project that would otherwise be unprofitable and have a negative NPV). The put option takes the form of a clause in the concession contract that gives investors the right, under certain circumstances, to sell the toll road back to the government for a fixed sum (in this case, €2.9 billion). According to the authors, this valuation approach is likely to be helpful in any kind of infrastructure project that faces risk stemming from the unpredictability of market demand and future revenue streams.     

Corporate Insurance and Debt: The Case of China*

Finance theorists have long argued that corporate purchases of property insurance can reduce the probability and hence the expected costs of financial distress. And by so doing, the corporate use of insurance can reduce borrowing costs and/ or increase debt capacity, reduce the overall cost of capital, and increase firm value. This article attempts to apply this argument to the case of publicly traded companies in China, which provides a particularly interesting environment given the significant presence of both foreign direct investment and state shareholdings in its corporate sector. From their study of several hundred Chinese companies during the period 1997‐2003, the authors report the following conclusions: Companies with higher borrower costs tend to purchase more property insurance, which in turn has the effect of increasing their debt capacity. Smaller companies are more likely than larger firms both to insure their assets and to purchase more property insurance (as a percentage of assets), reflecting their greater vulnerability to financial shocks and larger potential benefit from insurers' real advisory services (such as loss prevention advice). Companies with more and larger growth opportunities are more likely to purchase insurance, reflecting their higher expected costs of financial distress (from possible underinvestment) than firms with limited growth opportunities. Companies with higher levels of state ownership tend to insure their assets to a greater extent, suggesting that the managers of such companies insure to protect their job security, particularly as the availability of state subsidies to the Chinese corporate sector has declined since market reforms were initiated in 1978.     

The Impact of IFRS Adoption on Public Sector Financial Statements

Following a sector neutral approach to standard setting for about a decade, New Zealand adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for profit‐oriented entities and all other sectors including the public sector, from 2007 with the option to adopt early in 2005. Some studies have examined the impact of IFRS adoption on the accounts of profit‐oriented entities and found that this change had a significant impact on assets, liabilities and equity. This study examines the impact of adoption of IFRS on New Zealand public sector entities’ financial statements. We analyse and compare the reconciliation notes of IFRS and pre‐IFRS New Zealand Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (NZ GAAP) reported in the first IFRS annual reports of all New Zealand public sector entities. The results indicate that there have been some significant increases in assets and liabilities, and significant decreases to overall equity in some sub‐sectors of the public sector. The primary causes of such changes were recognition of employee entitlements (IAS 19) and recognition of derivative financial instruments (IAS 39) for many public sector entities, as well as remeasurement of deferred taxation for public sector commercial enterprises (IAS 12). In addition, public sector entities made many reclassifications between current and non‐current financial statement elements that did not impact on the aggregate balances of the entities’ balance sheets. In general, the findings of this study are similar to findings of studies that examined the impact of IFRS on private enterprises. The findings of this study contribute to the understanding of the implication of IFRS adoption and might be useful to policy makers and regulators who are currently reviewing the applicability of IFRS to public sectors in Australia and New Zealand and other countries.     

Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies

This paper discusses important features of financial dollarization and its implications for the macro economy and financial sector deepening. Despite the need to slow down the rate of inflation and keep exchange rates under control, to achieve growth and economic development, monetary policies may permit increases in the base money to keep pace with real GDP growth. In heavily dollarized economies, during periods of sharp devaluations of the domestic currency, financial assets and liabilities shift toward foreign currency, exacerbating downward pressure on the exchange rate. When central banks face pressures to keep the exchange rate steady in nominal terms, interest rates in the domestic currency are set at levels substantially higher than those on dollar assets. In such states of the world, banks prefer to lend to the government sector at these higher rates than to the private sector. Although private firms may benefit from lower rates on dollar loans, they also face significant exchange rate or currency risk due to the currency mismatch emerging from their dollar debt while their receivables may tilt toward domestic currency denominated instruments. This weakens their balance sheet, which in turn increases the exposure of the banking sector to a variety of risks.     

房价调控、地方政府债务与宏观经济波动

在地方政府债务高企的背景下,房价调控能否使资本流向非房地产部门？房价调控如果触发地方政府债务违约,宏观政策应如何应对？本文基于中国宏观经济的特征事实,引入地方政府的土地财政行为,将房价变动与地方政府的偿债能力联系起来。研究表明,由于地方政府依赖土地出让和土地抵押贷款筹集收入,房价管控导致的地价下降会带来地方政府收入的下降,直接影响地方政府的偿债能力。如果地方政府债务不出现违约,那么房价管控带来的地价下降会降低地方政府从金融部门获得的抵押融资额,使非基建部门的融资成本下降,非基建部门投资和产出上升。而如果调控房价带来的地价下降导致地方政府出现债务违约,金融部门资产受损,使金融中介减少贷款和提高贷款成本,带来整个社会的信贷紧缩,经济中各个部门的产出大幅下降。进一步的政策分析表明,有必要在避免地方政府债务违约的同时,使用财政资金补充银行资本金等多种方式稳定金融中介的资产负债表,从而将房价调控对经济的负面影响程度降到最低。     

An Empirical Investigation of Firm Longevity: A Model of the Ex Ante Predictors of Financial Distress

Empirical models of a potential failure process that incorporate distress states between the extremes of corporate health and bankruptcy are uncommon. We depict financial distress as a series of financial events that reflect varied stages of corporate adversity. Our intent is to provide information regarding the influence of certain risk dimensions and firm-specific attributes on distressed firm survival over time. Within a theorized distress framework, we utilize the techniques of survival analysis to longitudinally track firms, grouped a priori according to an initial decline in operating cash flows. We find that the event of default has a significant positive association with business failure. Further, we document that the significant accounting covariates tend to change conditional on a firm having progressed through the diverse stages of distress. These findings accentuate the heterogeneous nature of financial distress and potential business failure.     

Do private equity owners increase risk of financial distress and bankruptcy?

In this study, we investigate financial distress risks of European companies around the buyout event in the period between 2000 and 2008. In addition, we analyze whether buyout companies go bankrupt more often than comparable non-buyout companies. Our results suggest that private equity investors select companies which are less financially distressed than comparable non-buyout companies and that the distress risk increases after the buyout. Despite this increase, private equity-backed companies do not suffer from higher bankruptcy rates than comparable non-buyout companies. In fact, when companies are backed by experienced private equity funds, their bankruptcy rates are even lower. These findings indicate that experienced investors are better able to manage distress risks than their inexperienced counterparts.     

控制权冲突、资本配置决策与投资组合选择

本文以长期股权投资和固定资产的投资组合选择为研究对象,从控制权私利的视角探讨了大股东自利性动机对资本配置决策的作用机理,并进行了相应的数值模拟。研究发现：（1）固定资产投资规模与长期股权投资高状态收益存在负相关关系,而长期股权投资规模则与其高状态收益概率正相关;（2）大股东自利性动机驱使下的资本配置决策偏离了分散持股时的资本配置水平,偏离程度会随着现金流权与控制权分离度的增加而展现出非线性变化态势。上述研究结论为当前有关加强上市公司大股东财务决策监管的政策导向提供了重要的经验启示。     

Financialization in commodity markets: A passing trend or the new normal?

In this paper, we show that large inflows into commodity investments, a recent phenomenon known as financialization, has changed the behavior and dependence structure between commodities and the general stock market. The common perception is that the increase in comovements is the result of distressed investors selling both assets during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. We show that financial distress alone cannot explain the size and persistence of comovements. Instead, we argue that commodities have become an investment style for institutional investors. Given that institutional investors continue to target funds into commodities, we predict spillovers between commodities and the stock market to remain high in the future.     

Biases in multi-year management financial forecasts: Evidence from private venture-backed U.S. companies

This paper studies the properties and determinants of managers’ multi-year financial forecasts. Using one- to five-year-ahead forecasts reported by private venture-backed firms, we ask whether, by how much, and why biases in managers’ forecasts of revenues, expenses and profits depend on the forecasting horizon and the verifiability of assets. We find that profitability forecasts contain a strategic component, in that [1] one-year-ahead revenue (expense) forecasts are slightly and asymmetrically pessimistic (optimistic), while five-year-ahead forecasts are hugely and asymmetrically optimistic (pessimistic); and [2] biases in revenue and expense forecasts are larger, the harder to verify or more intangible-intensive are firms’ assets.     

Bank credit risk and macro-prudential policies: Role of counter-cyclical capital buffer

This paper investigates the impact of macro-prudential policy (proxied by the counter-cyclical capital buffer (CCyB)) on bank credit risk during uncertain times, as banking sector stability is crucial in promoting financial intermediation. Using a unique daily data set consisting of 4939 credit default swaps (CDS) of 70 banks from 25 countries over the period 2010–2019, we find that CCyB tightening decreases bank-level CDS spreads, while CCyB loosening increases CDS spreads. This heterogeneous effect of CCyB arises due to its asymmetric effect on the capital ratio (i.e., the equity-to-total assets ratio) of banks. Tightening CCyB significantly increases capital, whereas loosening CCyB does not impact capital. Thus, the risks that emanate from the banking sector during periods of heightened uncertainty and financial distress can be significantly dampened when CCyB regulation is enabled. Consequently, macro-prudential policies for banks to hold higher levels of capital during good times are justified to contain financial market risks during downturns.