Construction of Exact Simultaneous Confidence Bands for a Simple Linear Regression Model

A simultaneous confidence band provides a variety of inferences on the unknown components of a regression model. There are several recent papers using confidence bands for various inferential purposes; see for example, Sun et al. (1999) , Spurrier (1999) , Al‐Saidy et al. (2003) , Liu et al. (2004) , Bhargava & Spurrier (2004) , Piegorsch et al. (2005) and Liu et al. (2007) . Construction of simultaneous confidence bands for a simple linear regression model has a rich history, going back to the work of Working & Hotelling (1929) . The purpose of this article is to consolidate the disparate modern literature on simultaneous confidence bands in linear regression, and to provide expressions for the construction of exact 1 ?α level simultaneous confidence bands for a simple linear regression model of either one‐sided or two‐sided form. We center attention on the three most recognized shapes: hyperbolic, two‐segment, and three‐segment (which is also referred to as a trapezoidal shape and includes a constant‐width band as a special case). Some of these expressions have already appeared in the statistics literature, and some are newly derived in this article. The derivations typically involve a standard bivariate t random vector and its polar coordinate transformation.     

Local Linear Impulse Responses for a Small Open Economy*

Traditional vector autoregressions derive impulse responses using iterative techniques that may compound specification errors. Local projection techniques are more robust to this problem, and Monte Carlo evidence has suggested they provide reliable estimates of the true impulse responses. We use local linear projections to investigate the dynamic properties of a model for a small open economy, New Zealand. We compare impulse responses from projections to those from standard techniques, and consider the implications for monetary policy. We pay careful attention to the dimensionality of the model, and focus on effects of policy on gross domestic product, interest rates, prices and exchange rates.     

Organizationally Sensible vs. Legal-Centric Responses to the Eroding Employment At-Will Doctrine

Most private sector American employers have responded to the uncertainty created by the erosion of the employment at-will doctrine by adopting tactics aimed at avoiding the perceived costs associated with salient legal concerns (e.g., requiring written agreements to preserve the at-will relationship and defeat implied-contract claims). This article discusses the limitations of such a highly legal-centric approach, and provides an alternative decision framework that will promote more strategic, or organizationally sensible, employer responses. In addition to providing specific guidance for employers facing the employment at-will issue, the article's analysis and discussion illustrates a general approach that has relevance wherever organizational decision makers address employment decisions with potential legal implications.     

Economic conditions for innovation: Private vs. public sector

The Hicks induced innovation hypothesis states that a price increase of a production factor is a spur to invention. We propose an alternative hypothesis restating that a spur to invention requires not only an increase of one factor but also a decrease of at least one other factor to offset the companies’ cost. We illustrate the need for our alternative hypothesis in a historical example of the industrial revolution in the United Kingdom. Furthermore, we econometrically evaluate both hypotheses in a case study of research and development (R&D) in 29 OECD countries from 2003 to 2017. Specifically, we investigate the dependence of investments to R&D on the economic environment represented by average wages and oil prices using panel regression. We find that our alternative hypothesis is supported for R&D funded and/or performed by business enterprises while the original Hicks hypothesis holds for R&D funded by the government and R&D performed by universities. Our results reflect that the business sector is significantly influenced by market conditions, unlike the government and higher education sectors.     

National vs. corporate culture: Implications for human resource management

Corporate culture has been described as the “glue” that holds organizations together by providing cohesiveness and coherence among the parts. Multinational companies are increasingly interested in promoting corporate culture to improve control, coordination, and integration of their subsidiaries. Yet these subsidiaries are embedded in local national cultures wherein the underlying basic assumptions about people and the world may differ from that of the national and corporate culture of the multinational. These differences may hinder the acceptance and implementation of human resource practices, such as career planning, appraisal and compensation systems, and selection and socialization. This article discusses the assumptions about people and about the world underlying these HRM practices as they may differ from those of the national culture of the subsidiary. Finally, issues concerning the use of corporate culture as a mechanism for globalization will be raised.     

手机:暗战恋战乱战

回顾中国整个手机市场的发展历程,大致可以分为摩托罗拉时代、三足鼎立时代和百花齐放时代等三个主要时代.……     

Open Society: Hayek vs. Popper?

Does an open open society require a free market? Dr Naomi Moldoisky of the University of Melbourne reinforces Hayek's insistence that free societies must rest on free markets.     

Product Innovation Incentives: Monopoly vs. Competition

In contrast to Arrow's result for process innovations, we show that the gain from a product innovation can be larger to a secure monopolist than to a rivalrous firm that would face competition from independent sellers of the old product. A monopolist incurs profit diversion from its old good but may gain more than a rivalrous firm on the new good by coordinating the prices. In a Hotelling framework, we find simple conditions for the monopolist's gain to be larger. We also explain why the ranking of innovation incentives differs under vertical product differentiation.     

Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe*

This paper examines whether indicators of consumer and business confidence can predict movements in GDP over the business cycle for four European economies. The empirical methodology used to investigate the properties of the data comprises cross‐correlation statistics, implementing an approach developed by den Haan [Journal of Monetary Economics (2000) , Vol. 46, pp. 3–30]. The predictive power of confidence indicators is also examined, investigating whether they can predict discrete events, namely economic downturns, and whether they can quantitatively forecast point estimates of economic activity. The results indicate that both consumer and business confidence indicators are procyclical and generally play a significant role in predicting downturns.     

Cournot vs. Walras: A reappraisal through simulations

Best-reply behavior in Cournot oligopolies generally leads to Cournot-Nash equilibrium, but imitative behavior selects the Walrasian equilibrium as the unique stochastically stable state. Previous work (Alós-Ferrer, 2004) showed that in the presence of memory, imitative behavior leads to a non-trivial dynamics selecting all quantities between the Cournot and Walrasian outcomes. However, the scope of previous results was limited to specific assumptions on demand and cost functions, and did not provide information on the shape of the distribution of outcomes. We use computational simulations to address these limitations. We show that the selection result for non-trivial memory holds beyond the set of well-behaved Cournot games previously analyzed. Further, we find that, in Cournot games, the limit distribution of long-run outcomes is highly skewed towards the Walrasian quantity. Although longer memory increases the importance of the Cournot equilibrium, the competitive outcome remains the dominant prediction.     

Professional/management relations: Imagery vs. action

Managers and professionals have images about what professionalism involves. These images are used in personnel decisions and in other evaluation situations. The images used by professionals have multiple dimensions, many of which do not correspond to conventional stereotypes. The variable of power is of critical importance in developing and maintaining professional images. If management seeks to enhance the image of its personnel who are labeled professionals, it runs some risk of losing control of these personnel. The imagery of professionalization is viewed as developing more fully after individuals leave their professional training.     

房价收入比:一线城市依然偏高

近期,北京市社科院发布的蓝皮书中关于北京房价收入比过高的内容,使得房价收入比再次成为民众和业内关注的热点.……     

路劲与顺驰:整合之痛

虽然当下开发商的资金紧张给实力地产企业并购其他"弱势房企"增加了机会,但企业之间的并购绝非"大鱼吃小鱼"那么简单。整合一些管理制度存在缺陷的企业,究竟是机会还是陷阱,现在还很难判断     

Medium term growth forecasts: Experts vs. simple models

We compare the medium-term GDP growth forecasts generated by experts to those generated by simple models. This study analyzes a large set of forecasts that covers 48 countries from 1997 to 2016. Out-of-sample exercises indicate that no noticeable difference in performance is observed for advanced economies. In contrast, in the case of emerging economies, model forecasts perform better than expert forecasts. In addition, similar patterns are found for a collection of forecasts from a different set of experts, which suggests that the reported regularity is prevalent. Further analyses suggest that the documented difference in performance can be explained by an optimism bias, excessive reactions to innovations in growth trajectories, and insufficient responses to the information contained in the current account balance.     

An Ongoing race: family CEOs vs. non-family CEOs

International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal - Recent studies have established that non-family CEOs invariably outperform family CEOs. In this paper, we argue that the case against family...