A re-examination of the q theory of investment using u.s. firm data

Investment models based on Tobin's q are theoretically appealing, but they have been an empirical disappointment when applied to aggregate time-series data. This paper explores two potential explanations for the poor empirical performance of q investment models, problems arising from aggregation and imperfect competition. The results suggest that aggregation is responsible for spurious evidence of dynamic misspecification and at least partially responsible for an upward bias in estimated adjustment costs. The evidence also suggests that imperfect competition in output markets may have an effect on the investment behaviour of some firms.     

Financial factors and company investment decisions in transitional China

We investigate the propensity of Chinese publicly listed firms to invest in response to financial factors, according to the a priori degree of a firm's information problems: industry sector, ownership structure and firm size. The firms in primary and tertiary industries are found to be liquidity‐constrained in their investment decisions. The investment‐cash flow sensitivity of the firms in secondary industry indicates that they lost privileged access to credit in the course of China's market transition. However, we find no evidence that financial liberalization resulted in an easing of financing constraints for small‐ and medium‐sized firms. Our result indicates that agency problems, stemming from a state‐controlling pyramidal ownership structure, are responsible for the misallocation of internal funds. The importance of bankruptcy and agency costs in relation to debt finance for certain types of borrowers reflects the transitional nature of the financial environment facing Chinese firms. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do China's anti-corruption efforts improve corporate productivity? A difference-in-difference exploration of Chinese listed enterprises

Corruption affects corporate investment and diverts resources away from growth-improving factors, including R&D activities and human capital, thereby lowering productivity. Using a time-varying difference-in-differences approach, we identified the causal effect of China's anti-corruption campaign on corporate productivity during 2011–2021. The findings uncovered that China's anti-corruption campaign increased corporate productivity by approximately 18.43%. Results from heterogeneity analysis showed that the promoting effect was particularly significant in non-state-owned firms, firms without political ties, and firms in areas with weak legal systems. Additional mechanism analysis revealed that firm productivity could be significantly boosted by improving resource allocation efficiency and advancing technological innovation.     

The Seller's Perspective on Determinants of Acquisition Likelihood: Insights from China's Beer Industry

This study investigates acquisition antecedents during China's transition from a planned to a market‐based economic system. Because of contextual realities such as a lack of freely tradable targets for buyers, the seller's willingness to sell is critical for acquisition occurrence in transition economies. We therefore take the seller's perspective and examine factors underlying firms' willingness to sell. We posit that selling is a decision based on the evaluation of a firm's prospects determined by its embeddedness within the planned system, organizational changes it undertook during the transition, and its ability to adjust its strategy according to the evolving strengths of the planning and marketing institutions. Data from the Chinese beer industry from 1995 to 2004 show that acquisition likelihood is high for firms founded as SOEs, low for firms having attracted more private investment or undertaken multiple changes, and has a U‐shaped relationship with firms' relative investment in marketing resources.     

Compositional change,aggregation, and dynamic factor demand. Estimates on a panel of manufacturing firms

Most empirical research on investment and dynamic factor demand has used aggregated data. The large number of authors who have cited this as a source of problems strongly suggests possible benefits from analyzing individual firm data. This paper presents an analysis of a panel dataset of US manufacturing firms. Several models, based on cost minimization and a three-factor Cobb–Douglas technology, are developed. The differences concern whether the technology varies across two-digit SIC industries, the presence of fixed adjustment lags, and the determinants of adjustment costs. Identification relies on the rational expectations hypothesis, and estimation on non-linear 3SLS. The estimates indicate that versions with the adjustment lag perform better than others. Conditional elasticities reveal that factor demand responds rapidly to anticipated changes in output and factor prices, a finding consistent with other recent work. It appears that the factor demand of large firms is more price sensitive and less sensitive to output than small firms, consistent with recent work on credit market imperfections. Comparison of the results based on the pooled and the industry varying technologies indicate that the use of aggregate data is indeed a source of problems.     

The human resource challenge to outward foreign direct investment aspirations from emerging economies: the case of China

The continued influx of foreign investment into China and the growing desire by indigenous Chinese companies to invest abroad have created an unprecedented demand for people who possess competencies to compete successfully in a global economy. Without this pool of human talent, China's economic growth will slow and its outward foreign direct investment aspirations will be thwarted. This paper presents two inter-related studies that can shed light on China's ability to meet this human resource challenge in the years ahead. The first study pertains to the intention of a sample of Chinese university students in Canada to return to work in China upon graduation. Most Chinese students were receptive to the idea of returning to China. The second study examines the willingness of non-Chinese university students to work for Chinese firms overseas or in China. In general, non-Chinese students were more willing to work in the North American operations of Chinese companies and less so in relocating to China. These two surveys are supplemented by in-depth interviews with Chinese who have returned to work in China and those who chose to remain overseas. The implications of these findings, both theoretical and practical, are discussed.     

The effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long-run capital stock

This paper examines the effects of output price uncertainty on the optimal investment behavior of a risk-neutral competitive firm with a constant returns to scale production function. In the presence of convex costs of adjustment, investment is an increasing function of q, the shadow price of capital. Given the current price of output, we find that increased uncertainty will raise the current rate of investment. Increased uncertainty will also increase the expected long-run capital stock if the price of output is serially uncorrelated. However, if the price of output is serially correlated, then the direction of the effect of increased uncertainty on the expected long-run capital stock depends on the curvature of the marginal adjustment cost function. In this case, we obtain results which are directly opposite of the results in the literature and we locate the flaw in the existing analysis.     

Do adjustment costs explain investment-cash flow insensitivity?

In this paper, I explain two “puzzles” that have been observed in firm level data. First, firms that display a high sensitivity of investment to cash flow (commonly believed to be an indicator of liquidity constraints) usually have large unutilized lines of credit which, presumably, could be used to overcome the shortage of funds. Second, firms that are perceived to be extremely liquidity constrained actually show very little sensitivity of investment to cash flow.I show how a dynamic model of firm investment with liquidity constraints and non-convex costs of adjustment of capital can explain these facts. These two features together imply that firms need to have a certain threshold level of financial resources before they can afford to increase investment. Once they cross this threshold, firms’ investment will be positively correlated with their financial resources until they reach their desired level of capital stock. However, even if investment is sensitive to cash flow, firms may borrow below their credit limit to guard against future bankruptcy or binding liquidity constraints.     

中国行业层面研究与试验发展资本存量核算

研究目标：测算中国八大行业门类研究与试验发展（Research and Development,R&D）资本存量。研究方法：基于SNA2008的GDP核算框架,厘清R&D支出的资本化核算框架;再利用美国BEA方法测算R&D资本存量。研究发现：1990~2015年,中国R&D资本存量不到美国R&D资本存量的1/4;然而,自1994年后,中国R&D资本存量年均增长率达24.79%,而美国仅为4.86%,中美两国R&D资本存量差距呈逐渐缩小趋势;制造业R&D资本存量占全国R&D资本存量的比例呈上升趋势,从1990年的17.41%增长到2015年的68.08%,这与中国加快制造业转型升级的事实相符。研究创新：给出完整的R&D支出资本化核算过程,首次测算中国八大行业门类的R&D资本存量。研究价值：为分析技术进步对经济增长的影响提供了行业层面R&D投资和资本存量数据序列。     

Dynamic and non-neutral productivity effects of foreign ownership: A nonparametric approach

This paper studies two novel productivity characteristics of foreign acquisition on high-tech manufacturing firms: the dynamic and the non-Hicks-neutral effects. A dynamic productivity effect of foreign ownership arises when adoption of foreign technology and management practices takes time to fully realize. Furthermore, these dynamic adjustments may be capital or labor augmenting as adoption of advanced production technologies tends to have non-neutral productivity implications in developed countries. We propose and implement an econometric framework to estimate both effects using firm-level data from China's manufacturing sector. Our framework extends a nonparametric productivity framework, in which identification is achieved using a firm's first-order conditions and timing assumptions. We find strong evidence of dynamic and non-neutral effects from foreign ownership, with significant differences across investment sources. Investment from OECD sources is found to provide a long-term productivity boost for all but the largest recipients, while that from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan does not raise performance. These findings have implications for China's declining labor share and for the rising domestic value-added content of its high-tech exports.     

How to optimize the allocation of research resources? An empirical study based on output and substitution elasticities of universities in Chinese provincial level

Although significant progress has been made in China's basic research in recent years, there remains a wide gap between research in China and that from developed countries. How to optimize the allocative efficiency of research resources is of great importance for increasing research output. In this paper, using the fixed effect stochastic frontier model based on the translog production function, we estimate output and substitution elasticities of research and development (R&D) inputs at universities in China's provincial level during 2009–2016. We find that the R&D technical efficiency of China's universities, after a rapid growth, has tended to become relatively stable. Improvements of internationalization degree and exogenous R&D capabilities are conducive to promoting R&D technical efficiency, whereas expenditures from government grants inhibit the promotion of R&D technical efficiency; the effects of R&D capital deepening and internet penetration are not evident. The output elasticity of R&D capital is much higher than that of R&D personnel, suggesting that R&D capital is the main driving force of research output. The substitution elasticity between R&D capital and personnel has experienced a change from substitution to complementary since 2014. To realize sustained growth of research output, we should increase R&D input with positive output elasticity or reduce R&D input with negative output elasticity, making the necessary trade-offs according to the substitution relationship between the two R&D inputs.     

Explaining the profitability of foreign banks in Shanghai

This paper uses survival analysis to examine the factors determining the time taken for branches of foreign banks in Shanghai, China to make a positive rate of return after entering that market. Particular attributes of banks including the parent bank's size, early entry and the number of branches the bank has in China are found to reduce time to profitability. Market conditions in Shanghai, captured by levels of foreign direct investment and Eurodollar interest rates, are also found to have significant effects. A number of managerial implications are drawn from the analysis in light of the greater access to the Chinese banking markets following China's accession to the WTO. To ensure long‐term profitability in Shanghai, the foreign bank needs to contain costs and risks in the new markets, formulate an effective market penetration strategy, identify appropriate customer target groups, attract businesses from firms of different countries, seek early entry and undertake more fee‐income generating businesses. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

政治联系、市场化进程与权益资本成本——来自中国民营上市公司的经验证据

以中国民营上市公司为样本,文章实证检验不同市场环境下政治联系对企业权益资本成本的影响,研究发现:政治联系对权益资本成本的影响在不同地区是有差异的;在市场化程度较低地区,由于政府干预导致企业经营业绩有较高的不确定性,有政治联系企业承担着较高的权益资本成本;在市场化程度较高地区,政府干预相对较少,政治联系更多地体现为一种荣誉或良好的政商关系,此时有政治联系企业享有较低的权益资本成本;当上市公司存在控股股东利益输送时,投资者预期到无法共享政治联系为企业带来的利益,此时有政治联系企业要承担较高的权益资本成本。本研究为厘清政治联系对企业和投资者的利弊影响提供了一个有益的视角。     

The impact of financial and economic conditions on aggregate merger activity

A model of aggregate merger activity is developed by integrating the literature on aggregate investment in fixed capital into a microfinance framework. Mergers are viewed as the result of firms capital budgeting processes, and two major categories of explanatory variables emerge: (1) cost of capital and related financial effects, and (2) output effects. Regressions, estimated to explain the number of large mining and manufacturing mergers over the sample period 1956–1978, provide evidence consistent with this view. In addition, the model explains the high level of merger activity during the conglomerate boom of 1967–9.     

Does air pollution change a firm's business strategy for employing capital and labor?

We examine the impact of air pollution on a firm's capital-labor ratio. We propose the hypothesis that, in dealing with air pollution, a firm responds strategically by using relatively more capital and less labor to contain labor costs and remain competitive in the market. Using a sample of Chinese firms and a satellite-based air pollution metric, we test this hypothesis, and our results confirm it. In addition, we document that the impact of air pollution on the capital-labor ratio is more salient for firms with high economic incentives and close monitoring. Further, we report that to respond to worsening air pollution, a firm uses more capital and substitutes lower-quality labor with more high-quality labor. Finally, after increasing the capital-labor ratio, a firm's value increases, in terms of Tobin's Q, suggesting that the adoption of a higher capital-labor ratio, due to air pollution, is a sound business strategy.     

Labor's liquidity service and firing costs

This paper studies the specific effect that firing costs can have on firms facing liquidity constraints. When firing costs are zero and a time gap exists between production and its associated revenues, firing allows firms to hold on to their liquid assets by saving on wages, and thus, allows firms to cope better with liquidity shocks when external financing is too costly or unavailable. I refer to this feature as labor's liquidity service. Higher firing costs reduces the value of labor's liquidity service, and thus, increases firms' incentive for hoarding liquidity and reduces firms' demand for production inputs. In addition to this negative effect at the creation margin of production, firing costs have a relatively higher positive effect on the destruction margin of production of financially restricted firms. This paper presents a model that develops these ideas and shows that the presence of firing costs has a stronger negative effect on the output of firms facing liquidity constraints. Regression analysis, based on country-industry panel data sets, provides empirical evidence consistent with the liquidity service effect of firing costs. I find a relatively stronger negative effect of firing costs on the output of industries with higher liquidity requirements and a relatively stronger negative effect of firing costs on the output of small, and more likely financially constrained, firms.     

Management of Sino-Sino Joint Ventures

Abstract

Since China's implementation of its open-door policy in 1979, the most effective way to obtain a foothold has proved to be to create joint ventures (JV) with a Chinese business partner. The foreign partner provides the transfer of technology, management skills, financing and access to international markets, whilst the Chinese partner contributes a production base with cheap land and labor, contacts with central and local government officials and access to the domestic Chinese market. The Chinese economy has benefited to a large extent from the creation of joint ventures in the past two decades. Hong Kong firms have used China as a production base for many years, usually with great success and to the mutual benefit of both. However, although Hong Kong firms had considerable experiences in running business and manufacturing operations in China, several have suffered substantially from their investment in joint ventures with Chinese partners. This paper evaluates various issues relating to the performance of equity joint ventures in China. The evaluation is based on a case study of four Sino-Hong Kong joint venture manufacturing firms in the electronics industry, and the findings of this paper indicate that there are number of important factors affecting the stability of joint ventures in China. Foreign investors' experiences in other areas may not be applicable to their investment in China because the operation of a joint venture in China is inevitably faced with a variety of problems that the foreign firms may not have encountered before.     

Investment in organizational capital

Organizational capital is a specific form of capital that firms accumulate. It relates to the development of codes, technical languages, practical arrangements about how the work is done and to the creation of an organizational culture. The distinctive feature of this form of capital is the fact that it does not contribute directly to an output result. Instead, it can be thought as creating the correct environment for the human factor to maximize its capability of generating value, that is, organizational capital works as an external effect on the accumulation of the human capital input. Nevertheless, organizational capital is a form of capital and therefore it has an investment process associated with it. The paper considers the process of investment in this form of capital and recognizes that it introduces important changes over the firm's profit maximization problem. The problem gains new features relating to its dynamic nature and a condition that guarantees saddle‐path stability can be derived. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Human Capital Investment and Work Incentives

Traditional human capital theory based on the work by Gary Becker shows that firms do not invest in general human capital but offer firm‐specific training that is only useful for the training firm. I extend the traditional approach by adding two natural assumptions—workers cannot be forced to acquire new knowledge, and they exert unobservable effort to produce valuable output for their employer. I show under which conditions firms do not offer firm‐specific training but invest in general human capital, which increases the workers' outside option. This investment behavior is well in line with the documented prevalence of industry‐specific and occupation‐specific human capital over firm‐specific human capital.     

Business strategy and investment behavior

Empirical tests using the PIMS data base reveal a significant correlation between a firm's performance and strategic position and the rate at which it grows as measured by additions to capital stock. To the extent that the results are valid, then public policy measures to encourage capital investment will not be firm netural. The cost of capital will be lowered for all, but they will further stimulate investment in firms whose strategic position they improve. This may have an outcome detrimental to other firms better placed to contribute to the overall economy.