HOUSING OVER TIME AND OVER THE LIFE CYCLE: A STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION

We construct a model of optimal life‐cycle housing and nonhousing consumption and estimate the elasticity between the two goods to be 0.487. The estimate is robust to different assumptions of housing adjustment cost, but sensitive to the choice of sample period and the degree of aggregation of data moments. We then conduct experiments in which house prices and household income fluctuate. Compared with the benchmark, the impact of the shocks on homeownership rates is reduced, but the impact on nonhousing consumption is magnified when housing service and nonhousing consumption are highly substitutable or when the house selling cost is sizable.     

THE RETURNS TO EDUCATION AND TRAINING: EVIDENCE FROM THE MALAYSIAN FAMILY LIFE SURVEYS

Abstract. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the private returns to education and training in the 1980s for a random sample of women in Malaysia. I estimate a Mincer type earnings function, augmented by information on the women's training experience. The results indicate that there are positive and economically significant returns to education and training. I also investigate the determinants of training and find that training participation is positively related to educational attainment, while if women are credit-constrained they are significantly less likely to undertake training.     

DID TIME INCONSISTENCY CONTRIBUTE TO THE GREAT INFLATION? EVIDENCE FROM THE FOMC TRANSCRIPTS

We use evidence from detailed records of FOMC deliberations to argue that time inconsistency theory can help explain the excessive monetary expansion that characterized Arthur Burns's tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman (1970–1978). The records suggest that the Fed perceived a Phillips curve tradeoff and political pressures that made it difficult to adopt disinflationary policies; the tendency toward excessively expansionary policy was exacerbated by the short-run planning horizon the Committee faced in each of its meetings. We argue that comparative static predictions of the time inconsistency model are consistent with the rise of inflation during the Burns years and its subsequent fall.     

VALUE OF LIFE AND INJURY: EVIDENCE FROM A U.S. FISHERY

Here, revealed trade‐offs between monetary rewards and safety risk for shrimp fishermen in the Gulf of Mexico are investigated. Shrimp harvesting is one of the most dangerous occupations in the United States with an occupational fatality rate significantly above the average. The instrumental variables method is employed for estimation of the injuries and fatalities. My estimates of the value of a statistical life and the value of statistical injury, using the sample selection model, are in line with the estimates from other industries and provide useful information for public policy. (JEL J17, Q2, K2, D2)     

连续时间模型下的寿险需求和中国寿险市场的相关实证研究

本文以我国寿险市场为背景,通过建立包括保险决策的资产选择的动态连续时间模型,给出了保险产品价格成本效应对寿险需求影响的理论分析,并通过具体的数据分析讨论了模型的意义。本文还实证研究了目前我国保险市场一些主要的保障型寿险产品的附加保费因子及其对我国居民保险需求的影响。这在某种程度上解释了我国目前保障性保险需求不足的现象。同时本文实证分析的结果显示我国的保障性保险还远没有满足我国居民的潜在需求,并针对这种现象提出了相关的政策建议。     

FROM DISCRETE TO CONTINUOUS‐TIME TRANSITION MATRICES IN INTRA‐DISTRIBUTION DYNAMICS ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO PER CAPITA WEALTH IN EUROPE

Previous studies focusing on the intra‐distribution dynamics analysis have usually computed, in a Markov chain framework, discrete‐time transition matrices. Such an approach, however, can involve some limitations, especially when using stock variables. In order to illustrate the importance of the time‐scale issue when estimating transition matrices, this paper applies both discrete and continuous‐time approaches to a set of cross‐national European data on per capita wealth for the period 2000–10. The results reveal, on the one hand, that the continuous‐time estimation provides a most accurate estimation of transition probabilities and, on the other, that the differences between both approaches are especially remarkable in the long‐term equilibrium distribution.     

TIME TO MARKET AND IMPATIENT CUSTOMERS

We analyse the decision of firms about when to launch their products on the market when they produce differentiated goods and compete on prices. We find two subgame perfect equilibria: one in which the high‐quality firm holds its leadership in quality, and another in which the low‐quality firm leapfrogs its rival. When the initial level of differentiation is high enough, the low‐quality firm always launches first. Finally, we extend this model to analyse commercial piracy. We obtain that pirates are highly unlikely to launch the illegal copy first because they would bear a higher penalty and a higher risk of being detected.     

NEED FOR A SHIFT FROM A PHILANTHROPIC TO A HUMANISTIC APPROACH TO CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

As part of their business practices, the Indian government has made it mandatory for companies who have a turnover of 500 crores and above to spend 2 per cent of their net profits from the immediately preceding three financial years on corporate social responsibility (CSR). This article proposes to examine the issue of whether this enforced philanthropic responsibility of companies is helpful to both society and the organization. With the philanthropic approach it is not necessary for the organization to fulfill its responsibilities toward those who work in and for the organization, its customers and to the ecological system in general. Achieving both organizational growth and social development requires a shift from a philanthropic approach to a humanistic approach on the part of companies and the government, accommodating all its stakeholders.     

FROM DIRECT SUPPORT OF BUSINESS SECTOR R&D/INNOVATION TO TARGETING VENTURE CAPITAL/PRIVATE EQUITY: A CATCHING-UP INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY LIFE CYCLE PERSPECTIVE

The paper presents a generic, three-phase innovation and technology policy (ITP) model which, in a number of contexts, could lead to the successful rise of venture capital (VC) or related equity-based support and finance systems for innovative SMEs both in high- and non-high-tech sectors. There has been increasing recognition that such systems could facilitate country attempts at latching into the ICT revolution, catching-up and deepening of R&D/Innovation; and for facilitating the transition to a knowledge/learning economy. Whereas the model is inspired by the successful Israeli experience during the 1969–2000 period, the other examples referred to in the paper suggest that it is adaptable to other contexts as well. A critical analytical point is whether, in the wake of direct government support of business sector (BS) R&D/Innovation (Phase 1), conditions will emerge for the successful emergence of VC or related industries in Phase 3 (and, whenever necessary, for the successful policy targeting of such industries). These are termed Phase 2 conditions; and the paper refers to three Phase 2 profiles: the Israeli profile; the Chilean profile; and a third ‘strategic’ profile, which seems to have been adopted by Korea. The analysis strongly suggests that a multiphase ITP model could be an important analytical tool both for policy analysis and for policy making. Over and beyond its emphasis on the dynamic links between direct Government support of BS R&D/innovation and subsequent policies directed to VC, the paper also shows that policy could be subject to increasing rather than to decreasing returns.     

FROM PRIVATE BANKING TO CENTRAL BANKING: INGREDIENTS OF A WELFARE ANALYSIS*

An earlier analysis of Cavalcanti and Wallace showing that the set of allocations achievable using outside (government) money is a subset of those achievable using inside (private) money is extended. Here, the class of outside‐money allocations is enriched by allowing the planner to make transfers in the form of outside money. At the same time, punishments for defection are weakened. It is shown that the subset result continues to hold, although for a different reason than in the Cavalcanti and Wallace analysis.     

"你合作,我也合作"-森的确保规则在中国公社内部合作行为的应用

在社会交往中,个人的行为可能会被各种各样的承诺所限制.与标准的囚徒困境博弈中完全自私自利的参与者的行为相反,这些承诺有时会使人们暂时放弃对个人利益无休止的追逐.承诺形形色色,多种多样.在一个需要两个参与者进行合作的场合,当一个参与者确保自己会采取合作时,另一个参与者也会答应采取同样行动(SEN,1969,1974).当合作需要在超过两个参与者之间(N>2)进行时,一个参与者会答应合作只要另外一个,另外两个……或所有其他(N-1)个参与者答应合作.最终,一参与者可能会答应单方的无条件合作.该文旨在分析中国人民公社(1958-1978)内部集体成员承诺的不同形式.由于成员承诺结构的多样性,可能会产生不同的合作结果并且实际上也观察到了这些结果.这种对公社内部合作问题性质的解释与仅仅只承认个人利益是集体成员选择努力水平的惟一决定因素的另外两个模型(LIN,1990,1993;DONG和DOW,1993)形成了鲜明的对照.     

基于网络嵌入性的集群生命周期研究--一个新经济社会学的视角

近年来产业集群研究的一个重要特点是由对运输成本、企业间投入产出关系的关注转向对集群相关经济制度、社会文化环境的分析(stroper,1997)。这一转向的直接缘由在于西方新经济社会学的兴起。文章试图从这一学科的基本理论主张出发,结合其核心概念———嵌入性、社会网络、社会资本的阐述,对产业集群的竞争优势、创新与锁定效应等问题做出新的、系统性理论解释。     

TESTING STRICT STATIONARITY WITH APPLICATIONS TO MACROECONOMIC TIME SERIES

We propose a model‐free test for strict stationarity. The idea is to estimate a nonparametric time‐varying characteristic function and compare it with the empirical characteristic function based on the whole sample. We also propose several derivative tests to check time‐invariant moments, weak stationarity, and pth order stationarity. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate excellent power of our tests. We apply our tests to various macroeconomic time series and find overwhelming evidence against strict and weak stationarity for both level and first‐differenced series. This suggests that the conventional time series econometric modeling strategies may have room to be improved by accommodating these time‐varying features.     

"你合作,我也合作"-森的确保规则在中国公社内部合作行为的应用

在社会交往中,个人的行为可能会被各种各样的承诺所限制。与标准的囚徒困境博弈中"完全自私自利"的参与者的行为相反,这些承诺有时会使人们暂时放弃对个人利益无休止的追逐。承诺形形色色,多种多样。在一个需要两个参与者进行合作的场合,当一个参与者确保自己会采取合作时,另一个参与者也会答应采取同样行动(Sen,1969,1974)。当合作需要在超过两个参与者之间(n>2)进行时,一个参与者会答应合作只要另外一个,另外两个……或所有其他(n-1)个参与者答应合作。最终,一参与者可能会答应单方的无条件合作。本文旨在分析中国人民公社(1958—1978)内部集体成员承诺的不同形式。由于成员承诺结构的多样性,可能会产生不同的合作结果并且实际上也观察到了这些结果。这种对公社内部合作问题性质的解释与仅仅只承认个人利益是集体成员选择努力水平的惟一决定因素的另外两个模型(Lin,1990,1993;Dong和Dow,1993)形成了鲜明的对照。     

DISTANCE TO PROMOTION: EVIDENCE FROM MILITARY GRADUATE EDUCATION

Using a unique dataset of U.S. military officers enrolled in graduate programs at the Naval Postgraduate School, we find students enrolled in distance education programs are 19 percentage points less likely to graduate compared to students enrolled in comparable traditional resident programs. Interestingly, distance education students receive a larger proportion of As on their courses. But, they are also more likely to fail and withdraw from their courses compared to their resident counterparts. The negative effects of distance education are worse for students enrolled in more technical engineering programs compared to less technical business programs. Although distance students are more likely to separate from the military after completing their education compared to traditional students, there are no significant differences in job promotion within the military between the two groups. Our results highlight the challenges of designing effective distance education programs in technical fields. (JEL I20, I23)     

POLITICS AND LENGTH OF TIME TO BANK FAILURE: 1986–1990

This paper extends research on the savings and loan (S&L) industry to the banking industry in order to determine whether political influence affects the length of time from initial undercapitalization until ultimate bank failure. Results suggest that undercapitalized banks with representation on the House banking committee were allowed to remain open longer than were other undercapitalized banks. These results provide evidence that membership on relevant House committees matters.