The first law of futures

An editor can never be satisfied with the book review section. Publishers do not adjust their output to the number of reviewers, and there are at times those books that call for a more extended discussion than is usually possible in the space available. So, when I.F. Clarke finished his recent series on American anticipations, it was an opportunity to ask him to start a new venture for Futures. For the rest of this year he will review and reflect at length upon several books at a time, so that they can be placed in their contexts and we can have the benefit of his long researches into the past of future-thinking. We hope this will become a regular series in which other experts will take part.     

The Perceptions and Determinants of Auditing and Reporting Quality in the Asia‐Pacific Region

A country's institutional environment significantly influences perceptions of auditing and reporting quality (ARQ) at the national level. Relying on a relatively unique measure of ARQ, collated by the World Economic Forum, we evaluate the influence of nine key isomorphic pressures on the ARQ in 26 Asia‐Pacific countries. The results suggest that six of these (the efficacy of the corporate board, securities exchange regulations, reliance on professional management, protection of minority interests, adoption of international financial reporting and prevalence of foreign ownership) have a highly significant influence on the perception of ARQ whereas adoption of international standards on auditing is only moderately significant. However, contrary to expectations, our findings do not support the argument that the efficiency of legal frameworks and political systems significantly influences the perceptions of auditing and reporting quality in the Asia‐Pacific region. These results should be of use to investors and the accounting profession in evaluating economic environments.     

Robust outlier detection for Asia–Pacific stock index returns

Outliers can lead to model misspecifications, poor forecasts and invalid inferences. Their identification and correction is therefore an important objective of financial modeling.This paper introduces a simple method to detect outliers in a financial series. It uses an AR(1)–GARCH(1,1) model to calculate interval forecasts for one-step ahead returns that are then compared to realized returns to determine whether or not we are in the presence of an aberrant observation. The GARCH model, however, is only used as a filter and the identification algorithm remains robust to model misspecifications.The efficiency of this outlier-correction technique is first tested with a simulation study, before being applied to five Asian stock market returns to identify the outlying observations. After an analysis of these extreme fluctuations, the out-of-sample forecasting performance of our outlier-corrected model is then compared to the classical forecasts of a GARCH model in which no account is taken of outliers.     

A review of research on regulation changes in the Asia‐Pacific region

In this study, we review the financial research on regulation in the Asia‐Pacific region. We do this by analysing six leading regional accounting and finance journals – Abacus, Accounting & Finance, Australian Accounting Review, Australian Journal of Management, International Review of Finance and the Pacific‐Basin Finance Journal. We identify five main themes of regulation research relating to: (i) banking and financial institutions, (ii) markets and trading, (iii) corporate governance, (iv) disclosure and (v) accounting standard setting. Our paper synthesises the regional literature in these areas and provide some suggestions for future directions.     

The first fifteen years: a personal view of the early history of the WFSF (1967-1982)

This article is based on a personal account on the early history of the WFSF. The author emphasizes that this organization was in many ways more a social movement than a professional organization, since it functioned as a critique of the emerging future think tanks, which were so closely linked to established powers. Moreover, from its beginning, the Federation attempted to be a real global organization and not only an affair of the so called developed world. It succeeded in having conferences in all continents.In that early period the Federation had given explicit support to individuals and institutions in the communist countries of Central/Eastern Europe, where future research institutions were to some extent ‘havens in a heartless world’. The Federation has also promoted international courses in future studies for graduate students, especially in Dubrovnik. Many of the participants later on became active (board) members of the WFSF. Finally, in those days the Federation promoted a number of research projects on the study of the future, producing an impressive number of books and journals. In short, the WFSF is a club to be proud of.     

Youth and the WFSF: a generational approach

This paper examines the role of generational change in the emergence and continuity of the WFSF, generational change as situated through macro-historical perspectives, generational value shifts and their implications for the WFSF, and asymmetries and potentialities revealed through youth futures literature. It argues that the development of the WFSF in the longer term will require a generational approach that incorporates greater youth and student participation.     

Sustainable futures: policies for global development

Global sustainable development is the overarching challenge for social and economic policy today. The paper elaborates the concept of sustainable development, identifies some of the levers and policies that might help attain it, describes a modeling system used for analysis, and presents the results of evaluating the impacts of policies and an integrated scenario built upon them.Particular attention is given to measures related to research, technology development and the wider use of networking technologies, and to the hypothesis that investments in these areas offer a ‘triple-win’ opportunity for growth, greater equity and resource-efficiency. We show that the combination of policy initiatives in these areas can offer a valuable alternative and/or complement to constraints on businesses and life-styles that are commonly proposed for sustainable development.     

Contending voices: futures, culture and development

This essay discusses some aspects of the World Commission on Culture and Development (WCCD), a major UN initiative. It describes, in particular, the fate of a proposal to establish a General Agreement on Culture and Development (GACD) similar to other international agreements, but which takes a ‘bottom-up’ rather than a ‘top-down’ approach to negotiation. The proposed GACD would contribute to the resolution of culture-related crises and promote new directions for development based on cultural diversity and shared global values. The aim of the essay is: to indicate the aims and progress of the Commission; to consider how cultural futures-oriented thinking might assist in the conceptualization of a GACD; and to reflect on how different voices within the world community affect the progress of such initiatives and proposals.     

Managing a sphere of influence: WFSF and its institutional members

The World Futures Studies Federation has nearly seventy Institutional Members from around the world. Combined, Institutional Members' day-to-day endeavors span an assortment of professional, academic, governmental and research areas. The activity and visibility of the Institutional Members was informally monitored during a nine-month period in 2002-2003 which resulted in a strong impression that, despite abundant access to Institutional Members, the WFSF is underutilizing its sphere of influence. The WFSF should initiate a strategy of outreach to Institutional Members that maximizes relationships and is mutually beneficial for everyone involved in the organization. The basis of this outreach should be focused on fulfilling WFSF's stated mission to promote Futures Studies and awareness for the future. WFSF is also strongly committed to promoting democracy, which must also underlie any effort in this context. In addition to the internal state of affairs there needs to be consideration of trends and current conditions outside the field of Futures Studies. By examining four scenarios this essay suggests ways in which WFSF can anticipate the future and increase its impact.     

The futures of family businesses and the development of corporate social responsibility

Existing theoretical and empirical research on the diffusion of social responsibility in family businesses (FBs) has largely focused on the differences in corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities between family firms and nonfamily firms. But the differences in CSR activities and perceptions among different types of family businesses has not yet been researched, even if there are important differences in family businesses. Drawing on the evolution of CSR approach from positive to post positive and to Habermasian approach, and integrating it with a view of family firms as systems made of three different subsystems that over the course of time can be differently preponderant, we identify a typology of family firms. Our typology supports a fine-tuned understanding of the dynamics of CSR and family businesses in different configurations and facilitates envisioning the futures of family businesses in the development of CSR through the different types but also beyond. With this work we contribute to the literature by suggesting that patterns of CSR can be conceived by drawing on the evolving political conception of CSR. Specifically, we show that family firms can represent an ideal laboratory to depict the possible evolution of family firms CSR behaviors and test the tenets of the Habermasian approaches in addition to other approaches.     

Integrating futures studies with organizational development: Design options for the scenario project ‘RWS2020’

Most futures studies are not used by managers and strategists and do not influence the direction of organizational development. Although the contribution of future studies to management is in theory all but self-evident, the practice in organizations is that futures knowledge is hardly used, or at most, is used selectively and strategically (‘politically’). This article acknowledges that gap and claims that it is a fundamental divide between to very different domains. However, out of that re-conceptualization of the relation between futures studies and management, a new direction for an integrated praxis arises. In an empirical case study, we show that by means of an intelligent process-design and professional balancing of several key-dilemmas, futures studies can be connected to management processes and organizational development. The future can be brought back into the everyday practice of management. However, in order to do so, the futures field needs to set aside some of its methodological claims and move towards the field of strategic management. Not because futurists need to abandon their specific knowledge and expertise, but to make the most of it.     

Making futures research useful: The practitioner's opportunity

Futures research has a vital and practical contribution to make to the business world, to the improvement of marketing strategy. However, futures researchers need to have increased experience in a business environment to be fully aware of the multiplicity of factors to be considered in formulating a plan for marketing strategy and forecasting business events. Ultimately the futurists' greatest contribution is not one of accurate prediction but of orchestration and coordination of ideas from disparate sources.     

The futures of the colonised

A reading of Rabindranath Tagore’s last testament—Sabhyatar Sankat [11] (published in English as Crisis in Civilization [12])—reveals that it is an instance of how the colonised have shown at times astonishing capacity to make a transition from realistic criticisms to utopia, which serves as the most volatile critique of the colonial situation. Utopian thinking in the colonial world counters the reality of power, inspires and becomes the basis of hope and resistance. Dissolution and farewell—the two recurrent strains in Tagore’s essay—express the meaning of the rite of dreaming by the colonised. They also spiritualise the dangerous act of dreaming the future by those who feel their fate to be sealed. While politics of the present goes on, all along that, and all through that time, parallel attempts go on to re-make the nation into a new political society based on the incipient ideas of those times of justice and freedom. An overlapping historical sense prevails in a critical time, as it prevailed at the time Tagore wrote his last testament, and the clue to the overlap can be found only in an awareness of the contentious politics of the present, which a later-day chronicler will read as an act of seeing the future. History’s excess is future—the excess that defies rationality, like Tagore’s expectation of the advent of the Man from the East that defied logical explanations about the politics of his time.     

中国信保发布2014年一季度ERI指数

展望2014年二季度,中国出口信用保险公司（简称：中国信保）认为：在全球经济增速缓慢回升的背景下,中国外部需求有望恢复增长态势,其中来自美、欧等发达经济体的外需改善幅度将有所提升,事实上,     

The innovations of e-mini contracts and futures price volatility components: The empirical investigation of S&P 500 stock index futures

The effect of the initiation of e-mini stock index futures (ESIFs) on the volatility components of S&P 500 stock index futures is herein investigated. The study decomposes S&P 500 stock index-related observed volatilities into unobserved fundamental volatility and transitory noise and utilizes the decomposition to test two hypotheses: the “clientele factor hypothesis” and the “information adjustment hypothesis”. The first hypothesis proposes that the ESIFs attract more noisy traders who prefer trading the friendly-size futures contracts. The second one proposes that the innovations of ESIFs improve the information flow of the futures markets. Using a stochastic volatility model, the empirical results are consistent with both of our proposed hypotheses.     

Complexity science and theory development for the futures field

Complexity science unifies some forty diverse features that arise from the evolution of the civil system and these underlie theory development in the futures field. The main features of an evolutionary methodology deal with emergence, macrolaws, civil or societal transitions, macrosystem design, and the absorption of extreme events. The following principles apply: (1) The civil system is an open system in which investment capital is the system growth parameter that drives it away from equilibrium, with the formation of spatial structure. (2) The historical circumstances of human settlements provide a path dependency in respect of natural resources, defence, energy, transport, or communications. (3) Emergent properties arise within a complex adaptive system from which a theory of the system can be formulated, and these are not deducible from the features of the transacting entities. (4) Futures research identifies the conditions that will lead to an irreversible civil or societal phase transition to a new stage of development. (5) Emergent behaviour in the macrostructure at regional or continental levels can be influenced through critical intervention points in the global macrosystems.     

The territorial futures of Europe: ‘Trends’, ‘Competition’ or ‘Cohesion’

The ESPON 2006 scenario project generated three integrated roll-forward scenarios (A roll-forward scenario is a scenario in which the hypotheses define the parameters at the start of the covered time period and the scenario then explores the unfolding of events based on theses hypotheses. This is opposed to a roll-backward scenario in which the situation at the end of the time period is defined and the scenario then explores the path to reach this situation.). In the trend scenario renewed efforts are made for the Lisbon strategy, demanding extra investments in R&D and education. Regional policy will also be continued with vigour. In the Competition Scenario bold decisions are made regarding Europe's continued prosperity. The Lisbon strategy takes precedence over institutional reform and other sectoral policies. In the Cohesion Scenario Europe is confronted with the challenge of fully integrating the various regions in Europe. The budgets for Regional Policy and Rural Development Policy are enhanced and targeted to the most needy regions. The scenarios are described as stories about the future, supported by model calculations and visualised by various maps. They concentrate on urban and rural development and on territorial developments in different parts of Europe, like North-West Europe, the Alpine Space and Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, a proactive, roll-back scenario explores the possibilities to combine competitiveness, cohesion and sustainability. A message, derived from the scenarios, is that independent of the explored policy options the European territory will be confronted with large challenges like a (rapid) decline of fossil energy resources and increasing impacts of climate change. The scenarios appear particularly helpful in the context of the current paradigm shift in European regional policy from a policy for balance to a policy for aggregate growth.