Fixed Export Costs and Export Behavior

This article provides a direct assessment of how fixed export costs (FECs) and productivity jointly determine firm‐level export behavior. Using Chilean data, we construct indices of FECs for each industry‐region‐year triplet and match them to domestic firms. Our empirical results show that firms facing higher estimated FECs are less likely to export, while those with higher productivity export more. These outcomes are the foundation of the widely‐used sorting mechanism in trade models with firm heterogeneity. We also find that the substitution between FECs and productivity in determining export decisions is weaker for firms with higher productivity. Finally, among firms that export, both larger FECs and greater within‐triplet productivity dispersion are associated with a greater export volume of the average exporter.     

Export Promotion Via Official Export Insurance

Proponents of free trade argue that export promotion distorts competition and undermines the multilateral trade system. In most countries export insurance is provided by the government and, consequently, is driven more by a broad range of policy objectives than purely insurance principles. This paper, however, shows that export promotion does not necessarily imply trade distortions and that most export destinations do not benefit from insurance premium subsidies. A significant policy implication of these findings is that the WTO and the EU are correct not to banish completely official export insurance.     

出口信用保险守护出口企业

随着国际市场竞争的加剧，要求买家提供100％货品资金担保的信用证结算方式已日益受到海外买家的抵制。为扩大出口，中国出口企业往往采用放账（O／A）、付款交单（D／P）、承兑交单（D／A）等方式与海外买家进行交易，由此大大增加了收汇风险。     

Joint-Product Export Smuggling and Export Tax Policy

The effect of smuggling on tax revenue collection and the revenue-maximizing tax rate is an unresolved issue in the smuggling literature. Clandestine and joint-product smuggling models arrive at different conclusions concerning smuggling's effect on tax revenue collection and the revenue-maximizing tax rate. Clandestine (joint-product) smuggling is consistent with the assumption that legal and illegal trade are substitutable (complementary) activities for the exporting firm. The effect of smuggling on the tax rate and tax revenue is shown to be dependent on whether smuggling and legal trade are assumed to be complementary or substitutable activities.     

出口固定成本、融资约束与中国企业出口参与

本文基于新新贸易理论和中国企业面临融资约束的现实,建立离散动态出口模型,发现克服出口固定成本和缓解融资约束可以促进企业出口参与。进而运用2004～2008年中国七十余万家制造业企业数据,从内源融资、银行信贷和商业信贷3个维度衡量融资约束,实证检验理论分析。结果发现,克服出口固定成本是企业参与出口的关键,商业信贷对企业出口参与贡献最大,银行信贷次之,内源融资贡献最小。细化样本后发现,克服出口固定成本仍然是出口的关键,但是,无内源融资企业较之有内源融资企业,内资企业较之外资企业,出口融资都更多依赖商业信贷和银行信贷;国有企业出口融资更多依赖银行信贷,而民营企业更多依赖商业信贷。变化融资约束衡量方法后,结果依然稳健。     

人民币汇率、企业出口边际与出口动态

基于2000~2007年工业企业微观数据和高度细化的海关数据,文章深入考察了人民币实际有效汇率对中国工业企业出口行为的影响。结果显示:(1)人民币实际有效汇率升值对中国工业企业的出口决策、出口数量、出口价格和出口额均有显著的抑制作用,并且从标准化系数来看,其对出口数量、出口价格和出口额的影响相对较大,这说明人民币实际有效汇率对企业出口的影响更多体现在集约边际上,并且在集约边际内部,企业主要通过调整出口数量来应对人民币实际有效汇率升值对其出口的冲击;(2)人民币实际有效汇率对企业出口行为的影响因企业生产率水平、规模、融资约束、所有制和贸易方式的不同而具有显著的异质性;(3)就人民币实际有效汇率与企业出口持续期的生存分析发现,人民币实际有效汇率升值显著缩短了企业出口的持续时间。     

毗邻效应、出口经验溢出与企业出口行为

文章使用2000～2013年中国海关企业数据,基于出口经验溢出视角构造四个毗邻效应代理变量,采用Heckman二阶段模型判断这几个变量性质,并进一步采用扩展引力模型考察毗邻效应对企业出口行为(进入、退出和销售)的影响。研究发现:毗邻效应引致的出口经验溢出对企业出口二元边际有显著影响,即其可能对出口固定和可变成本降低都有利;采用Probit模型估计出口进入/退出,采用2SLS估计企业出口销售,结果表明毗邻效应引致的出口经验溢出会对企业出口进入和销售都产生显著正向影响,对企业出口退出产生显著负向影响;目的国与中国距离越近、市场规模越大、与任一已有市场有共同官方语言且企业生产率越高、以往出口目的国数量越多,则越有利于企业出口进入和销售,越不利于出口退出;企业在进入某一出口市场的初期退出该市场的风险也更大;以上结论在基于企业性质分类样本回归中存在一定异质性,但采用不同计量方法时稳健。上述结论意味着政府应加强基础设施建设和贸易便利化改革,推动形成中国全面开放新格局;应对私营企业在融资、税收和研发上给予更多补贴和政策支持,激发各类市场活力。     

双边实际汇率、出口规模与出口质量

本文采用2005~2011年中国对147个国家和地区的6位数海关编码出口数据,实证研究了人民币与进口国货币之间的双边实际汇率变化对中国出口的影响。研究表明,不同产品出口的实际汇率弹性与产品质量有关,高技术含量产品出口的汇率弹性小于低技术含量产品。人民币相对于进口国货币的实际升值一方面会对出口规模产生显著的负面影响,另一方面却能优化出口结构,提升中国出口产品的整体质量。     

Multilateral Export Decompositions

We analyze exports along five margins to observe the changes of newly exported products, products removed from the export market, and continuously traded products to new, old, and exited destinations on export growth. We find export shares differ between developing and developed countries: 1) entering and exiting products are an important source of export value, but more so for developing than developed countries, 2) that continuously exported products to new destinations are a more important source of export value for developing than developed countries, 3) that though the removal of exiting products has a large impact on export value, the removal of products from one destination that continue to be exported elsewhere results in little loss to total export value, and 4) that larger and richer exporting countries have less opportunity to increase exports from new destinations than smaller and poorer exporting countries. Understanding the change in these margins across different types of countries may be important for formulating trade agreements and targeting of new trade partners.     

全球价值链嵌入位置、出口目的国与出口产品复杂度

价值链嵌入位置对出口产品质量、出口产品复杂度的影响机制关乎一国贸易政策以及国内产业结构调整和全球分工战略制定。文章基于需求侧"技术复杂度偏好"这一视角考察价值链嵌入位置差异对一国出口产品复杂度的影响。使用UN COMTRADE(1998~2014年)6位数贸易数据和WIOD(1995~2011年)国家-行业水平经济指标及投入产出表数据,测算了基于全球生产分工下的出口复杂度和价值链中要素供给侧上游度、产品需求侧下游度。研究发现,供给侧以及需求侧嵌入位置均与出口产品复杂度显著正相关;出口产品复杂度随出口目的国人均收入递增;全球价值链嵌入位置与出口目的国人均收入之间交互项为负,当出国目的国为高收入国家时,行业在全球价值链上的嵌入位置更加靠近最终产品使用端。进一步的研究发现,金融危机对低复杂度行业的影响更显著,有助于分工的进一步深化和国家间转移。     

The Indonesian Log Export Ban: An Estimation of Foregone Export Earnings

The paper examines the economic impact of the Indonesian phased log export ban from 1981 to 1986, by means of a counterfactual analysis which permits the calculation of hypothetical export revenues under the assumption that the log export ban was not implemented. A graphic and numeric presentation of the analysis is provided. The present value of the range of estimated cumulative losses is USS (1980) 1.9 billion to $3.1 billion.     

纺织服装出口：谁持彩练当空舞？

从2001年中国加入世界贸易组织以来．中国纺织品服装工业通过大规模的技术改造．大大提高了国际竞争力和市场的占有率，出口竞争力系数由2002年的0．62上升到2007年的0．81．中国纺织品和服装的出口额也从2001年的534亿美元．上升到2007年的17f11．7亿美元．年均增长率达到21．4％。赤橙黄绿青蓝紫，谁持彩练当空舞72007年对于中国纺织服装业来说．尽管行业遭遇了贸易限制、人民币升值、劳动力和生产资料成本提升等诸多坎坷．但中国纺织品服装的出口仍保持较快增长的良好态势。据海关统计．2007年中国纺织品服装累计出口1711．7亿美元．比上年同期（下同）大幅增长18．9％．这一出口增速无疑再一次证明了纺织服装“MadeinChina”的实力。     

汽车出口：在蹒跚中“走出去”

进入21世纪以来，随着人民收入水平的不断提高，我国的汽车产量出现了突飞猛进地增长，并迅速跃升为一个世界汽车大国。据统计，“十五”期间我国汽车产量计划提前大幅超额完成，2005年我国汽车计划目标为320万辆，其中轿车110万辆，而实际产量为570万辆，其中轿车277万辆，分别为计划目标的1．78倍和2.52倍。与此同时，中国在世界的排名也大幅提高。目前，中国已经超过法国，成为美国、日本、德国之后的世界第四大汽车生产国。     

Relaxing Export Supply Capacity Constraints and Promoting Export Expansion and Diversification in Africa: The Role of Special Export Development Strategies

Abstract: This paper examines the role of several export development strategies in relaxing export supply capacity constraints and promoting export expansion and diversification in Africa. It starts with a review of the analysis and recommendations in Can Africa Claim the 21st Century? ( World Bank, 2000 ) and an identification of subsisting supply obstacles. This forms the background against which the paper discusses changes in the growth, structure and destination of African exports during 2000–2005; explores the use of export development strategies (such as supply chain management, networks and clusters, as well as branding); and discusses the enhancement of market access of African exports regionally and globally. The paper concludes with an analysis of the prospects for relaxing Africa's export supply response capacity constraints and the feasibility/viability of the suggested strategies for expanding and diversifying the region's exports.     

要素市场扭曲对中国本土企业出口行为的影响——出口选择抑或出口数量

要素市场扭曲是影响中国本土企业出口的重要因素,对企业选择更多出口还是选择更高的出口数量具有重要的影响。本文在理论分析要素市场扭曲对企业出口两种成本影响机制的基础上,运用中国工业部门2001~2007年的企业数据,采用Heckman两阶段选择模型实质检验了要素市场扭曲对中国本土企业出口行为的影响。研究发现,要素市场扭曲对企业的出口选择和出口数量具有相反的影响作用,刺激了更多的企业选择出口,但是抑制了出口企业出口数量的提升;分所有制视角的检验发现,上述影响对于非国有企业更加明显;在采用工具变量控制内生性以后,以上结论依然成立。     

船舶出口 海阔天空任遨游

船舶工业是为水上交通、海洋开发和国防建设等行业提供技术装备的现代综合性产业，也是劳动、资金、技术密集型产业，对机电、钢铁、化工、航运、海洋资源勘采等上，下游产业发展具有较强带动作用，对促进劳动力就业、发展出口贸易和保障海防安全意义重大。新世纪以来，世界造船业的格局发生了重大的变化，韩国造船业全面赶超日本，坐上了世界造船业的“第一把交椅”。