流动性与交易所市场回购利率

在发达的金融市场上,回购利率的期限结构服从纯预期假设,无论从经济意义上还是从统计意义上来说风险溢酬都不显著。但是中国金融市场作为新兴市场表现出一些不同点。本文利用2000年1月到2006年2月上海证券交易所的回购数据,发现长期回购利率有明显的风险溢酬,预期理论并不成立。进一步分析得到流动性是影响风险溢酬的一个关键因素,流动性的预期和流动性的随机冲击都对观察到的风险溢酬有影响,并且流动性的预期是主要的影响因素。     

Why do merger premiums vary across industries and over time?

We identify time-varying industry and macroeconomic factors that explain the observed variation in takeover premiums over time. Results support our hypotheses that some industry and economic factors can increase the growth prospects in an industry, which boosts expected synergies and/or demand for the target firm, and therefore increases the merger premiums. Merger premiums are higher when the target's corresponding industry experiences higher growth, has more research and development (a proxy for expected growth), and has less dispersion in performance among firms within the industry. Merger premiums are also positively related to capital liquidity, which can enhance economic growth and competition for target firms, and positively related to volatility in economic growth, which affect merger waves and the demand for target firms over time.     

Bank failures caused by Large withdrawals: An explanation based purely on liquidity

In a version of the Diamond and Dybvig [Diamond, D., Dybvig, P., 1983. Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity. Journal of Political Economy 91, 401–419.] model with aggregate uncertainty, we show that there exists an equilibrium with the following properties: all consumers deposit at the bank, all patient consumers wait for the last period to withdraw, and the bank fails with strictly positive probability. Furthermore, we show that the probability of a bank failure remains bounded away from zero as the number of consumers increases.This equilibrium explains bank failures driven by extreme withdrawals solely on liquidity since they happen because both banks and depositors are illiquid. Furthermore, it does not require much of the elements typically emphasized, including: consumers well informed about the true state of nature, a non-zero consumption after a crisis, consumers’ panic and sunspots. We therefore think that aggregate risk in Diamond-Dybvig-like environments can be an important element to explain bank crises.     

An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads,purchasing power parity disequilibria,and forward premium asymmetry

Using a panel data approach, we find statistically significant evidence that bid-ask spreads and deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) are related to the forward prediction error of ten major U.S. dollar exchange rates over the post Plaza Accord period. Previous literature suggests that bid-ask spreads proxy for liquidity risk and deviations from PPP are a source of time-varying risk premiums. Additionally, the paper provides evidence that the forward discount bias is asymmetric with respect to the sign of the forward premium as well as to an undervalued and overvalued U.S. dollar.     

Ticket Scalping as a Means of Managing Risk

Ticket scalping (known as touting in the UK) is often criticised for raising prices to consumers and producing unjustified profits. Conventional economic theory, however, shows that ticket scalping allows tickets to be reallocated in a more optimal manner with regard to the utility of consumers. This article points to an additional benefit from ticket scalping: by providing a secondary market it acts as a potentially powerful tool of risk management for event organisers. It is argued that curtailing ticket scalping may in the long run lead to a decline in the supply of privately provided events and concerts, especially lesser‐known ones. This in turn may stimulate a demand for public subsidy.     

Commonality in liquidity among Middle East and North Africa emerging stock markets: Does it really matter?

This study investigates commonality in daily liquidity among 11 emerging stock markets from the Middle East and North Africa from January 2005 to June 2017. First, we test long memory in liquidity in these markets. Second, we select a number of factors eligible to affect liquidity commonality among local, regional and global factors. We find that regional and US factors do not explain liquidity variations in all the markets that exhibit low sensitivity to external factors. Our results are robust to the use of alternative proxies. The analysis in sub-periods confirms our results showing that most markets are not very sensitive to fluctuations and external shocks of liquidity. For international investors, stock markets in the Middle East and North Africa present an opportunity for further diversification, as these markets exhibit weak correlations between them and with the global market with regard to liquidity.     

Prize Promotions as Costless Commitments

This study theoretically analyses the role of firms' prize promotions, using a simple and general microeconomic model. In a static environment, prize promotions are meaningless. However, in a dynamic environment, prize promotions work as firms' credible announcements on expansions in those firms' future production. The key lies in the firms' dynamic supply of lottery tickets in prize promotions. Because the prize promotions have been proved to be equivalent to credible announcements, we can say that prize promotions are costless and one of the best commitment tools in time‐inconsistency between the firm and consumers. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE ‘WHO AND WHY’ OF LOTTERY: EMPIRICAL HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE SEMINAL ECONOMIC LITERATURE

Lotteries operate today in many countries around the world. This type of gambling is usually run by governments and is sometimes described as regressive. Lottery is an unfair bet, so explaining the purchase of lottery tickets by risk‐averse consumers has been a challenge for economic theory. Lotteries can be analysed from either of two economic perspectives: as a source of public revenue or as a consumer commodity. In this paper the state of economic research on lotteries is reviewed, focusing on its main empirical findings.     

To err is rational: A theory of excess demand for tickets

This paper examines the relationship between chronic excess demand for sporting events, a robust ticket resale market and the market for seasons tickets. The main argument focuses on property rights associated with the purchase of season tickets. Given the impossibility of pricing games individually, season-ticket holders act as brokers. The ‘broker's fees’ are paid in the form of priorities for playoff tickets and premium seats in future years. Since a pure monopoly price would render season-ticket property rights worthless, a profit-maximizing strategy requires apparent underpricing.     

Impact of Basel III liquidity regulations on U.S. Bank performance in different conditional profitability spectrums

We study the impact of the Basel III liquidity constraints, represented by the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and the net stable funding ratio (NSFR), on bank profitability, by employing the simultaneous quantile regression framework with time fixed effects. We find a positive and significant relationship between the LCR and profitability and the NSFR and profitability over most quantiles. However, the small magnitudes of the coefficients on LCR and NSFR across all quantiles of profitability suggest that LCR and NSFR have a minor quantitative impact on bank profitability. We then test and find that the Basel III liquidity constraints have a significantly different impact on banks with very low profits compared to banks who enjoy high profitability, emphasizing the need to use a quantile approach. We plot the coefficients to illustrate the impact of liquidity constraints across different conditional profitability spectrums. Lastly, we find that small banks are more vulnerable to short term liquidity risks (LCR) and big banks are more susceptible to medium to long term liquidity risks (NSFR). This suggests that considerations should be given to tailoring liquidity regulations based on the bank size and the relative bank profitability. The quantitatively small impact of the constraints suggest that Basel III has successfully set liquidity requirements to minimize the impact on bank profitability and the likelihood of an industry-wide liquidity crisis.     

Labor's liquidity service and firing costs

This paper studies the specific effect that firing costs can have on firms facing liquidity constraints. When firing costs are zero and a time gap exists between production and its associated revenues, firing allows firms to hold on to their liquid assets by saving on wages, and thus, allows firms to cope better with liquidity shocks when external financing is too costly or unavailable. I refer to this feature as labor's liquidity service. Higher firing costs reduces the value of labor's liquidity service, and thus, increases firms' incentive for hoarding liquidity and reduces firms' demand for production inputs. In addition to this negative effect at the creation margin of production, firing costs have a relatively higher positive effect on the destruction margin of production of financially restricted firms. This paper presents a model that develops these ideas and shows that the presence of firing costs has a stronger negative effect on the output of firms facing liquidity constraints. Regression analysis, based on country-industry panel data sets, provides empirical evidence consistent with the liquidity service effect of firing costs. I find a relatively stronger negative effect of firing costs on the output of industries with higher liquidity requirements and a relatively stronger negative effect of firing costs on the output of small, and more likely financially constrained, firms.     

公司流动性价值的复合实物期权定价法研究

公司流动性是指公司或企业持有的流动性资产,它除了账面价值外,还含有某种潜在价值。对公司流动性价值进行科学的评估,对于投资者、公司管理者等各方都非常重要。采用实物期权理论对公司流动性进行定价,是目前公司金融理论的前沿课题。本文首次揭示了公司流动性的复合实物期权性质,并用复合实物期权模型进行了定价的尝试,为公司财务管理决策提供了一种量化的工具。     

Asset price volatility and banks

This paper examines the operation of Diamond–Dybvig banks when depositors have access to the asset market. Previous studies have shown that banks are redundant in this environment since it is impossible to prevent the strategic withdrawals. This paper shows that the strategic withdrawals can be prevented if the market risk, due to asset price volatility, is considered. Banks provide deterministic returns to the depositors since the aggregate withdrawals are predictable, and therefore, banks can choose the portfolio such that no asset liquidation is involved. However, an individual consumer with stochastic liquidity need is vulnerable to the price volatility if he holds the asset directly. Therefore, banks improve the consumers’ welfare by providing the insurance against not only the liquidity shock but also the market risk. Banks are not redundant.     

Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises

This paper estimates a nonlinear Threshold-VAR to investigate if a Keynesian liquidity trap due to a speculative motive was in place in the U.S. Great Depression and the recent Great Recession. We find clear evidence in favor of a breakdown of the liquidity effect after an unexpected increase in M2 in the 1921–1940 period. This evidence, which is consistent with the Keynesian view on a liquidity trap, is shown to be state contingent. In particular, it emerges only when a speculative regime identified by high realizations of the Dow Jones index is considered. A standard linear framework is shown to be ill-suited to test the hypothesis of a Keynesian liquidity trap. An investigation performed with the same data for the period 1991–2010 confirms the presence of a liquidity trap just in the speculative regime. This last result emerges significantly only when we consider the federal funds rate as the policy instrument and we model the Divisia M2 measure of liquidity.     

The liquidity risk–financial performance nexus: Evidence from hybrid financial institutions

This paper uses a sample of 532 microfinance institutions (MFIs) in 73 countries to investigate the effect of liquidity risk on the financial performance of MFIs and also enquires whether this effect changes in the presence of credit risk. It observes that liquidity risk exhibits a robust negative and statistically significant effect on the financial performance of MFIs. However, in the presence of credit risk, this negative effect transmutes into a positive effect. The paper also observes that in the presence of liquidity risk, credit risk impacts the financial performance of MFIs positively.     

A statistical and probabilistic analysis of popular lottery tickets

We investigate statistical and probabilistic aspects of a data set of 2588 lottery tickets purchased for the German 6/49 lottery drawing of 16.10.1993 in Baden–Württemberg. Roughly speaking, each of these combinations was chosen at least 50 times above average. 288 of these most popular tickets represent past winning numbers (or modifications thereof) from various lotteries. The vast majority of the remaining tickets is filled out from aesthetic points of view. In this respect, some new random variables are introduced and studied.     

Antiscalping laws and the selling of season tickets by professional sports teams

This note highlights some issues related to the distribution of season tickets by professional sports teams. I first consider a number of alternative methods teams could use to sell season tickets. I argue that primary ticket sellers do not want their tickets used as investments assets; rather, they prefer game tickets be viewed as consumption assets. In examining these alternatives, I argue that season tickets can be viewed as a bundle of prepaid forward contracts, which have a convenience yield. This can help explain the apparent “underpricing” of game day tickets, team reselling policies, and antiscalping laws.     

Insuring Banks Against Liquidity Shocks: The Role of Deposit Insurance and Lending of Last Resort

Abstract.  It has long been recognized that banks' simultaneous provision of monitoring and liquidity services is advantageous but leaves them susceptible to liquidity shocks that may culminate in a system failure. Because a system failure is costly, this provides a rationale for adopting arrangements, including a lender of last resort and deposit insurance (DI), to insure banks against liquidity shocks. These arrangements have proven themselves very successful, but they have also been the source of problems. Researchers have identified some of the main sources of these problems and have suggested ways to improve the design of these arrangements, but there are still many issues that remain unaddressed. This paper reviews the literature on the two arrangements that most countries have adopted to insure banks against liquidity shocks, a lender of last resort and DI, and compares the design of these arrangements across countries. The paper ends with a brief summary of the key lessons learned about the design of these arrangements and the issues related to them that remain unaddressed.     

Risk pricing of wholesale funds and the behavior of retail deposit rates

We explore the relationship between bank risk and retail deposits. Predicted risk premiums on wholesale funds explain retail rate heterogeneity through two channels. First, increased bank risk premiums encourage the bank to substitute from wholesale funds to small certificates of deposits (CD) by increasing small CD rates. Second, increased rival risk premiums in a local market require the bank to increase small CD rates even more. Our results are consistent with risk encouraging the use of small CDs as a marginal source of funds and promoting local market competition for small CDs. As risk premiums rise, banks also reduce rates on other retail deposits. Our approach has implications for regulatory and monetary policies and financial stability.     

江苏后发达地区农村消费者行为特征分析及对策

近年来,江苏农村人口一直占50%左右。在收入低约束下,伴随着流动性约束以及未来收入和支出不确定性的影响,农村居民的消费倾向较低,消费结构也不够合理。本文在分析国内外学者对农村消费者的消费结构研究基础上,利用斯通的线性支出系统模型,对江苏省后发达地区农村消费者的行为进行实证研究,指出该群消费者现有的消费行为特点及存在的问题,并从政府和企业的角度提出了相应的对策。