Haste doesn't bring success: Top-down amplification of economic growth targets and enterprise overcapacity

Using the data of Chinese industrial enterprises, we examine how the incentive to reach GDP growth targets affects the local firms' capacity utilization. We find that Chinese economic growth targets exhibit a persistent pattern of top-down amplification along different jurisdiction levels, which is associated with a decline in local firms' capacity utilization. Moreover, the effect of amplified targets on overcapacity is more pronounced (1) when officials utilize hard-constraint vocabulary in setting the economic growth target, (2) during the National Congress of Communist Party, and (3) when the age of prefecture-level officials is close to 55. We also find officials intervene local firms' capacity decisions by increasing private communication with local entities and loosening public policies for local firms within their jurisdictions. Further results show that the amplification of economic targets is detrimental to future development of both regional economy and local firms.     

Challenges for civil society involvement in civic entrepreneurship: a case study of local enterprise partnerships

Civic entrepreneurship involves engagement between the state, business and civil society to produce economic growth for the public good. In the UK context a key initiative to encourage such engagement has been the creation of local enterprise partnerships (LEPs); these structures are intended to be a key delivery driver of regional economic growth. This paper draws on insights from semi-structured interviews with actors involved in the development of a LEP in the north of England. Findings draw attention to concerns from civil society over losing its distinctiveness through these partnerships, and in the process losing its ethos as a guardian of the public good.     

地方性银行产权结构、贷款供给与地方经济发展

从经济增长和经济效率两个维度衡量地方经济发展,在对地方性银行产权结构、贷款供给与地方经济发展关系进行理论分析的基础上,采用我国67家地方性银行的数据,实证研究在贷款供给促进地方经济发展方面,不同产权性质的地方性银行是否具有差异;并进一步分析城商行与农商行在促进城市和非城市经济发展方面的差异性。研究发现：地方性银行提供的贷款越多,地方经济增长速度越快,地方经济效率也越高。在贷款促进地方经济增长方面,国有与非国有控股银行的作用无明显差异,但在贷款促进地方经济效率提升方面,国有控股银行的作用弱于非国有控股银行。城商行和农商行的贷款均能有效促进市辖区的经济发展,且作用效果无明显差异,但它们均未能明显促进非市辖区的经济发展。     

Institutional development,financial deepening and economic growth: Evidence from China

There have been profound changes in both political and economic institutions in China over the last 20 years. Moreover, the pace of transition has led to variation across the country in the level of development. In this paper, we use panel data for the Chinese provinces to study the role of legal institutions, financial deepening and political pluralism on growth rates. The most important institutional developments for a transition economy are the emergence and legalization of the market economy, the establishment of secure property rights, the growth of a private sector, the development of financial sector institutions and markets, and the liberalization of political institutions. We develop measures of these phenomena, which are used as explanatory variables in regression models to explain provincial GDP growth rates. Our evidence suggests that the development of financial markets, legal environment, awareness of property rights and political pluralism are associated with stronger growth.     

关于中国经济增长模式的一个解释框架--基于“土地财政”的演进分析北大核心

本文建立了一个新的模型尝试解释中国经济的近中期增长模式。在考虑“土地财政”作用的基础上,首先建立两期世代交叠(OLG)模型说明基本原理,随后将两期模型扩展到多期OLG模型,进行参数校准和模型求解。研究表明,在城镇化过程中政府将通过“土地财政”机制获得的资本用于基础设施建设,使得企业部门资本重新配置、均衡条件重构,推动形成国有企业与民营企业相对占比的稳定均衡。在这一机制下,GDP和全要素生产率不断上升但增速逐渐下降;资本的总体投资效率和资源配置优化速度出现下降,民营企业占比先增后稳。多期模型较好地刻画了我国1998—2017年期间经济结构变化趋势以及储蓄率、投资率、对外投资与外汇储备等宏观指标。随着“土地财政”作用的进一步弱化,持续推动技术进步、深化国企改革、深化金融改革等是实现我国经济长期可持续发展的关键举措。     

Corruption,growth, and governance: Private vs. state-owned firms in Vietnam

We provide a firm-level analysis of the relation between corruption and growth for private firms and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam. We obtain three different measures of the perceived corruption severity from a 2005 survey among 741 private firms and 133 SOEs. We find that corruption hampers the growth of Vietnam’s private sector, but is not detrimental for growth in the state sector. We document significant differences in the corruption severity across 24 provinces in Vietnam that can be explained by the quality of provincial public governance (such as the costs of new business entry, land access, and private sector development policies). Our results suggest that corruption may harm economic growth because it favors the state sector at the expense of the private sector and that improving the quality of local public governance can help to mitigate corruption and stimulate economic growth.     

土地财政收入、生产性支出和经济增长研究——基于省际面板数据的非线性阈值分析

构建含土地财政收入的内生经济增长模型,从理论上证明土地财政收入对经济增长存在非线性影响,而且会因财政支出结构的变化而对经济增长产生不同的非线性影响。并以2000-2017年省级面板数据对上述假说进行实证检验。结果显示：在东部和西部地区,土地财政收入相对GDP的占比对经济增长确实先有促进作用,后出现抑制作用,呈现出较明显的倒“U”形特征。同时,土地财政收入对经济增长的影响会因财政支出结构的变化而出现阈值效应,过高的生产性支出比重将减弱土地财政收入对经济增长的促进作用。     

资本回报、产权保护与区域资金集聚

各地区能否吸引资金集聚对实施区域协调发展战略、构建高质量发展的国土空间格局至关重要。基于此,本文采用直接法依据资金来源渠道计算我国各地区1985-2017年吸引的资金流量数据,并从逐利性以及产权保护两个视角考察地区资金流动动机。实证结果表明,总体上,资金与资本回报率之间呈“U形”关系。当资本回报率较低时,资金不具有逐利性,但一旦超过临界值资金则会凸显逐利性。受资金来源结构影响,东部地区资金的逐利性更强,而非东部地区的资金流动不具有逐利性。从资金与产权保护的关系看,总体上,完善的法治化契约制度比代表市场化营商环境的产权制度更能吸引资金集聚,但东部地区产权保护制度是吸引资金集聚的关键因素,非东部地区则是契约制度。各地区完善产权保护制度和要素市场化配置过程中应各有侧重,把有效市场和有为政府更好结合起来推动要素在区域间自由流动,是促进区域协调发展的必由之路。     

中国西部开发, 也是世界的机会

<正> 中国西部的社会发展明显落后于东部是历史现象,并延续至今,这种发展的不平衡主要是由于交通和自然条件的差异造成的。事实上,世界上许多国家,特别是疆域辽阔的大国都在相当程度上,存在着或存在过地区发展不平衡的问题。只有改变中国西部社会发展——特别是经济发展的落后状况,才能实现全中国经济的共同繁荣。人们都已认识到,现在时机已经成熟。 中国在近20年的经济发展中,东西部发展的差距变得更大了。于是在国外,有人认为中     

发现新的增长源泉：金融市场化

实体经济部门需求和金融部门的供给的高度不匹配,严重制约了中国经济的发展。依靠传统的国企投资来拉动,已不再奏效,低效率和泡沫泛滥的并存,经济增长难以为继。推动中国经济增长的动力之一,民企的内源性融资是否还能持续下去？近年来地方政府和企业共同推动金融市场化的实践,表明可以通过金融市场的竞争解决不对称信息问题,把过去银行认为不符合贷款条件的无效融资需求最大限度的转化为有效需求,就能够有效地降低民企的投资扩张的临界点,形成经济增长的新源泉。因此,不仅仅依靠利息率市场化的调整,而更需要通过金融机构之间的积极竞争,从而填补金融市场的供求缺口。     

Industry policy,cross-region investment,and enterprise investment efficiency

The introduction of industry policies creates a non-market-oriented policy arbitrage space, which in turn triggers enterprises to adopt "strategic" investments to obtain government policy preferences, which may induce irrational over-investment behaviors and even lead to long-term investment inefficiencies. For an empirical study of the impact of industry policy for the cross-region enterprise investment in specific locations, we manually collected information on industry policy in various regions, as well as data on the establishment of subsidiaries of Chinese listed companies from 2006 to 2019.The results show that enterprises are more likely to invest in regions supported by industry policies. If the enterprise's location is not supported by policies, the impact of this policy "gap" will be strengthened. We find that the higher the level of finance in the region where the enterprise is located, the greater the possibility of the enterprise's cross-region investment. Our research also shows that private enterprise has more substantial incentives to engage in "policy arbitrage", and state-owned enterprises are less affected. In china, a lot of enterprises in regions with high returns on capital have been investing in regions with low returns has increased. However, the increased intensity of investment in low-return regions will significantly inhibit the production efficiency of these enterprises. Our findings help clarify the effect of public policies on the enterprise's investment behavior and efficiency, which enriches the research on the impact of government macroeconomic policies on enterprise micro decision-making. We believe that, when promoting regional industrial upgrades through industry policies, it is necessary to guide enterprises to follow market rules to make market-oriented investments.     

金融深化与民营企业融资

民营经济已经成为我国经济发展的重要组成部分，但由于我国金融总体上仍处于抑制状态，使民营企业难以获得稳定的资金来源，不利于经济的发展。本文认为应加快金融深化过程，从根本上改善民营企业融资困境。     

经济增长目标驱动投资吗?——基于2001-2016年地级市样本的理论分析与实证检验

已有文献发现政府制定的经济目标能够产生经济增长绩效,本文考察政府目标实现经济增长绩效的渠道和机制,提出经济增长目标驱动辖区投资增长的理论假说,并采用2001-2016年地级市政府工作报告公布的经济增长目标数据,对理论假说进行了验证。研究发现,经济增长目标每提高1%,地区投资显著上升约0.44%。这一发现在采用不同的核心变量度量指标、回归样本和估计方法后依然稳健。本文还发现,经济发展阶段和地区发展水平差异导致了目标驱动投资效应的异质性。随着经济发展阶段的转变,经济增长目标推动辖区投资增加的边际效应下降;在经济发展水平较高的东部地区,地方政府所制定的增长目标更有效地扩大了辖区投资。本文的研究发现有助于理解中国经济增长的内在动力机制,可为经济高质量发展转型提供政策启示。     

西部地区民营经济发展财政支持对策与思考——以四川省达州市为例

改革开放以来,我国民营企业蓬勃发展,民营经济由小到大、由弱变强,在稳定增长、促进创新、增加就业等方面发挥了重要作用,已成为推动我国国民经济发展的重要力量.但是,随着外部环境的深刻变化和受到国内经济下行等多重因素的影响,我国民营企业,尤其是西部欠发达地区的民营企业普遍面临着成本增高、终端市场受限、融资难融资贵、税费负担重等发展瓶颈制约问题.如果这些困难和问题长期得不到有效解决,将会严重影响民营企业的健康发展和阻碍民营经济的快速发展.财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱.财政部门要充分发挥职能作用,积极支持民营企业健康发展,要以降税减费为主攻方向,减轻民营企业发展中的压力,帮助民营企业做大做强,实现民营经济高质量发展.本课题以四川省达州市为例,提出财政部门支持民营经济发展"1234"工作思路和对策措施,积极推动民营经济发展动力强起来、发展质量高起来、发展速度快起来,为达州加快实现"两个定位"和争创全省经济副中心做出积极贡献.     

我国农业上市公司投资规模影响因素实证分析

本文以我国农业上市公司为研究对象,分析了农业上市公司的投资规模影响因素,并结合上市公司数据实证检验了这些因素。研究发现：我国农业上市公司的投资规模与企业面临的股权集中度、短期投资机会、优惠政策显著正相关,与内部现金流量显著负相关,但负债水平和公司规模对农业上市公司的投资规模影响不显著。此外,研究还发现股权分制改革对农业上市公司的投资规模影响显著。     

西部地区民间投资发展滞后的研究

改革开放以来,西部地区经济发展一直落后于东部沿海发达省份,原因之一是西部民间投资不足。为了解释西部地区民间投资发展不足的现象,本文从新制度经济学的视角进行分析,初步量化制度因素,选取2000-2007年西部10个省市构造面板数据,对西部民间投资自西部大开发以来的发展进行了实证分析,并总结了西部民间投资滞后的制度原因,提出了相应的对策建议。     

理念的转变与多维的视角--二十世纪九十年代以来发展经济学的新进展

以发展的理念和发展的动因为主线,对1990年代以来国际发展理论的新进展作了梳理和总结.近年来,随着发展的研究视野的不断拓展,人们逐渐认识到发展不仅要实现经济增长,还要实现变革、社会转型、人的权利和自由等目标.此外,影响经济增长和发展的也不仅仅是经济因素,制度、知识、社会资本、民主等非经济因素对增长和发展也有着深刻的影响.     

Privatization,political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over political commitment to a market-oriented policy as well as to regulatory and private property rights. We present evidence suggesting that progress in privatization is indeed correlated with improvements in perceived political risk. Our analysis further shows that changes in political risk in general tend to have a strong effect on local stock market development and excess returns in emerging economies. We conclude that the resolution of political risk resulting from successful privatization has been an important source for the rapid growth of stock markets in emerging economies.     

民营企业信贷风险及防范措施

目前,民营经济在我国经济增长中是不可或缺的因素,民营经济已成为国民经济的重要组成部分,占有重要的地位。据统计,民营企业贷款已占商业银行全部贷款的32%。对于商业银行来说,继续加强对民营企业的信贷营销,促进民营经济发展,是重要的业务之一;同时,由于民营经济本身存在的一些问题,也为商业银行防范和化解民营企业信贷风险带来严峻挑战。本文针对民营经济的信贷风险问题进行研究,并提供一些建设性意见。     

吉林省民营经济发展中的问题及对策

吉林省是全国整体发展水平的“标志性省份”,主要表现为国土面积、人口数量、GDP总量三大指标均约占全国的2%左右。在全省经济发展格局中,民营经济已成为推动地方经济发展的一只劲旅。但是,在民营经济发展过程中仍存在着一些不容忽视的问题,我们必须从思想认识、体制保障、发展路径等方面,为民营经济的持续健康发展创造良好环境。