论台湾经济发展的新取向

由于历史的原因,过去台湾在经济上长期与美国保持着密切的联系,与大陆的经济联系却处于一种非正常化的状态之中。然而,随着大陆改革开放越来越深入,大陆经济实力越来越壮大,大陆因素渐渐成为台湾处理与美国经济关系的一个不容忽视的因素。     

美国推进TPP背景下的两岸经贸合作

正2010年,大陆与台湾签署《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议》(Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement),开拓了两岸频繁而密切的经济往来。此后,两岸经贸合作基本围绕ECFA展开。与此同时,美国从2008年开始大力推行《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP),TPP的高门槛使得中国大陆在短期内无法达到要求,而可能使身处美国和大陆政治角力中的台湾获得发展空间。     

扁治下的经济生态

陈水扁政府以意识形态偏好代替经济法则的做法,使台湾经济不能因两岸直接双向交流而受惠于大陆经济高速增长,严重损害了台湾的投资环境,影响了外商投资台湾的意愿和信心,削弱了台湾经济的竞争力。     

新形势下津台经贸合作的机遇与挑战北大核心CSSCISSCI

进入新千年以来,随着两岸先后加入WTO,两岸经贸交流与合作得到快速发展。从2003年起,大陆超越美国和日本,成为台湾最大的贸易伙伴和出口市场,而台湾目前则是大陆第七大贸易伙伴和第九大出口市场。2008年在全球经济增长转缓,主要国家经济出现衰势的情形下,两岸贸易额仍达1292．2亿美元,     

加强两岸合作 提振台湾经济

当前,台湾经济内部需求不振,消费低迷,财政赤字严重,新一轮的产业结构转型升级面临严峻挑战。国际金融危机使以外向型经济为主导的台湾受创甚重,雪上加霜。如何使台湾经济走出低迷,加强两岸合作是主要途径之一。     

中国经济学一百年:经济学在台湾的发展

经济学在台湾的发展,自1945年台湾光复后,大致可分为三个阶段,第一阶段为战后复原期,从1966年台大经济系开始筹组博士班到1980年则可归为第二阶段,是经济学生根期间,而到1981年以后,台湾经济界研究成果对国际学术界产生相当程度的回馈与贡献,可归为经济学萌芽期间,本文回顾台湾学界经济思想的发展与经济政策之间的关联,并对未来经济学在台湾的茁壮提出展望。     

东亚经济一体化与粤台经贸关系探讨

2005年4月以来,台湾各界纷纷访问大陆;而“连宋”访问大陆后,台湾当局的政治取向仍不明朗,其后果将会是阻碍两岸经贸关系的发展,使台湾经济面临着边缘化的可能。当前,粤台双方应该顺应时代潮流,加强经贸合作,推动两岸经济一体化,尽快融入东亚区域经济整合的格局之中。     

ECFA与台湾经济

2010年6月29日,海峡两岸启动"海峡两岸经济合作框架协议"(ECFA),带动了一波台湾的经济成长。本文就ECFA对台湾产生的外部性因素、内部性因素、国际政治经济格局与台湾经济发展进行了深入分析探讨。     

台湾经济冰火两重天

民进党在“立委”选举中惨败，表明台湾人民对其统治下经济状况的不满。那么，在民进党执政八年后，台湾经济的现状如何呢？官民各持一词。台湾经济的未来到底何去何从，人们尚需拭目以待。     

社会经济在中国（下）

钟秀梅（台湾成功大学台湾文学系）：台湾合作经济的经验分享 大家好!我演讲的主题是“台湾的合作经济”。首先要对合作经济下一个简单的定义。合作经济是在人民有主体性的条件下创造的经济连结关系,透过这样的连结关系决定自己的生计和生活的方式。     

Economics of scale and scope in multiproduct firms: evidence from US railroads

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in analysing scale economies in US railroad firms. The analysis of scale economies in existing studies is, however, limited in view of recent advances in the theory of the multiproduct firm. In this paper, the previous work is extended to address the issue of scale and scope economies in multiproduct firms. The findings show that US railroads experience mild overall economies of scale, but rather marked product-specific economies of scale with respect to both freight and passenger services. However, there appear to be diseconomies of scope associated with the joint production of the two services. Based on these results, this study indicates that US railroad firms would have no tendency to behave as a natural monopoly in the absence of regulation.     

US money supply and global business cycles: 1979–2009

This article investigates the effects of the US money supply shock on global business cycles by employing a global vector autoregressive model containing 26 economies over the period from 1979Q2 to 2009Q4. The US money supply is incorporated as an endogenous variable for the US and a global factor for other economies. When a positive US money supply shock hits the global economy, developed economies (such as the US, Euro area and the UK) will have neither real output decline nor inflation pressure, while China and some other developing countries are going to have a significant decline of real GDP. The international spillover of the liquidity effect exists. The global effects of quantitative easing are discussed as well.     

The spillover effect of the US uncertainty on emerging economies: a panel VAR approach

The article quantifies the spillover effects of the United States’ (US) uncertainty shocks on emerging economies, using a panel VAR model. We find that the US uncertainty shocks are the risks, and hence drop the capital inflow, investment, consumption, export and output of emerging economies. This also induces a depreciation of emerging market currencies. As a result, our model predicts a fall in short-term interest rate of emerging economies to react against the US uncertainty shocks. Our findings partly help explain the slow recovery of the world economy after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis.     

The impact of interdependence on economic policy design: The case of the USA,EEC and Japan

The world's industrialized economies have become increasingly interdependent over the past 30 years. The policy implications of this mutual dependence obviously depend on the spill-over effects between economies, but, because simplified models of hypothetical economies have been used, work on this topic has left unanswered the question of how much the policy choices are affected. This paper applies different strategies to linked models of the US, EEC and Japanese economies to evaluate the importance of spill-over effects in policy design. The results indicate that interdependence has strong but asymmetric effects due to differing degrees of market flexibility. The US performance dominates, while Japanese policies have little impact on the rest of the world.     

The China–US Trade War: Deep‐Rooted Causes,Shifting Focus and Uncertain Prospects

The USA has waged a trade war against China, whose rapid rise has come to be seen as a threat to US hegemony. Besides imposing additional tariffs on imported Chinese products, the USA is also tightening restrictions on the transfer of technology to China and the business activities of some Chinese high‐tech companies, notably Huawei. The escalation of the trade war into a tech war could lead to a decoupling between the US and Chinese economies, if not a world economy divided into two economic blocs that centered on them.     

US shadow economies: a state-level study

Recent studies of shadow economies focus primarily on cross-country comparisons. Few have examined regional or state-level variations in underground economic activity. This paper presents estimates of the shadow economy for 50 US states over the period 1997–2008. Results suggest that tax and social welfare burdens, labor market regulations, and intensity of regulation enforcement are important determinants of the underground economy. Among the states, Delaware, on average, maintains the smallest shadow economy at 7.28 % of GDP; Oregon, on average, has the second smallest shadow economy at 7.41 % of GDP; followed by Colorado, averaging 7.52 % of GDP, rounding out the three smallest shadow economies in the US West Virginia and Mississippi, on average, have the largest shadow economies in the US as a percent of GDP (9.32 and 9.54 %, respectively).     

Uncertainty and the United States’ election effect on the economy: some thoughts and empirical illustrations

This study discusses the general impact of Donald Trump’s election on the US and European economies as well as the effect of this political news on financial markets. To this end, we discuss different hypotheses from a theoretical view and empirically illustrate these thoughts when possible. Our analysis suggests that while the expected Trump measures might boost the US economy in the short term, these actions would have negative long-term consequences in the United States. Further, this new US policy will affect European economies and destabilize financial markets while increasing uncertainty, which could constrain growth and increase the downside risk.     

Do Geographic Scale Economies Explain Disturbances to Heckscher–Ohlin Trade?

This paper examines whether "geographic scale economies" explain the trade that remains unexplained by the Heckscher–Ohlin model. The paper develops a theoretical specification that integrates geographic scale economies into the Heckscher–Ohlin model, and develops a statistical method for detecting geographic scale economies in the distributional features of a disturbance term. The units of analysis are US states. The findings reveal that empirical support for the Heckscher–Ohlin theory is improved by accounting for geographic scale economies within states; geographic scale economies do not generate differences in Rybczynski effects across states; and the scope of geographic scale economies is contained within states.     

TEST OF THE CONVERGENCE HYPOTHESIS ALLOWING FOR CROSS‐SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

A large empirical literature has investigated whether per capita output converges around a common trend across national and regional economies. The methods used in this literature assume no cross‐sectional dependence even though it is likely to be present and might be important in practice. Chang has devised a promising method of testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels with cross‐sectional dependence. We apply her method to test whether convergence takes place across three samples of economies: 15 advanced industrial countries; a broader group of 57 countries; and the 48 contiguous US states. We find evidence of convergence for the 15 advanced industrial economies but no evidence of convergence across either the broad group of countries or the US states.     

Estimated general equilibrium models for the evaluation of monetary policy in the US and Europe

In this paper we derive a general equilibrium model based on optimising behaviour, which also implies a data consistent framework for monetary policy analysis. Specifically, our model accounts for nominal inertia in both price and wage setting as well for habits in consumption. Using US and European data from 1970 to 1998 our parameter estimates reveal that (i) price contracts last for 8 months and 13 months in the US and Euro-area, respectively; (ii) wage contracts have a length of 7 months and 1.75 years in the US and Europe, respectively; (iii) the extent of backward-looking behaviour in price setting is statistically significant in both economies with 41% of price contracts in the US and 28% in the Euro-area set according to a simple rule-of-thumb; (iv) backward-looking wage setting is only present in Europe with 17% of contracts set in a backward-looking manner; and (v) similar habits effects are present in both European and US consumption. Finally, we simulate the effects of monetary policy by considering the impact of a 1 point increase in nominal interest rates for one quarter. Our parameter estimates imply that there is a relatively muted inflationary response to interest rate increases in Europe (price inflation falls by -0.08% in Europe and 0.11% in the US) and there is a correspondingly large output response (-0.2% in the US and -0.6% in Europe).