Policy-Induced School Calendar Changes and Teacher Moonlighting

Secondary employment (SE) is an important for many workers and several motives impact engagement. This research analyzes a novel short-lived crisis when California public schools switched between nine-month and year-round calendars in response to state policy inhibiting school construction. The crisis shifted primary employment vacation schedules of full-time teachers for 4–6 years, potentially altering compositions of SE opportunities. Policy analysis is conducted, and the empirical analysis suggests teachers increase SE engagement by 13.8% during years their schools are on year-round calendars. The increase is attributable to increases in school-based SE engagement in schools using multi-track year-round calendars, and no changes in non-school-based SE engagement are observed. An event study suggests the impact on SE engagement only occurs when teachers are required to be on year-round calendars. Males and mid-career teachers' SE engagement appear most responsive. The relative importance of workers' SE motives and policy impact are discussed.     

The impact of an accelerated depreciation tax policy on employment: Evidence from China

We examine the impact of an accelerated depreciation tax policy (ADP) on employment. As a tax incentive policy, we expect an ADP to impact firm behavior significantly, but its effect on employment remains uninvestigated. Leveraging the two-stage implementation of an ADP in selected industries in China in 2014 and 2015 and using a difference-in-differences research design, we find that: 1) the ADP significantly increases employment, which is consistent with the output effect hypothesis; and 2) the ADP increases firms’ labor demand, mainly by stimulating investment in fixed assets and easing their financial constraints. Additional analysis suggests that the impact of ADP on employment is more salient for small firms, non-state-owned firms, and high growth firms, and skilled labor employment, indicating that the ADP is more effective for firms with high financial constraints and hiring skilled labor to accompany the increase in capital investment.     

我国对外贸易就业效应的区域差异分析——基于省级面板数据的检验

本文利用1978～2004年的省级面板数据,将我国划分为东、中、西三大区域,考察了对外贸易的就业效应。结果表明,出口对国内就业具有显著的正向影响,进口对国内就业具有地区性差异;长期来说,不能以出口为导向来解决我国的就业问题,调整进口商品的结构,对解决就业具有十分重要的意义;我国存在着严重的资本替代劳动现象,应该发展劳动密集型产业;1997年的亚洲金融危机对我国就业造成了显著的负面影响。这表明,解决我国的就业不能脱离其他一系列宏观经济政策,需要将对外贸易政策、产业政策和汇率政策纳入同一个分析框架中进行。     

非农就业提高农村居民幸福感了吗？

农村劳动力非农转移已经成为常态,对农村居民的福利水平产生了深远影响。文章基于体验效用假设,构建了工农要素流动下农村居民的幸福函数,并基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)农村调研数据,实证分析了非农就业影响农村居民幸福感的效应、机制与情境。结果表明:非农就业在总体上促进了农村居民幸福感提升,但却存在一定的"伊斯特林悖论"关系,即短期非农就业能够显著促进幸福增长,但长期非农就业对幸福增长的促进作用是有限的,甚至出现停滞或反向抑制状态;其内在机制主要在于非农就业过程中农村居民的需求层次逐渐由生存需要转向尊重和自我实现需要,但长期非农就业并不能显著提升外出务工农村居民的社会地位感知;非农就业对农村居民幸福感的促进效应,在本地非农就业和跨省流动的就业情境下更为显著,在女性群体、高中层次受教育程度群体中相对更高,且伴随农村居民的年龄增长呈现边际递减规律。基于此,文章提出创造本地就业市场、关注非农劳动力的就业需求变化、加强非农就业劳动力职业技能培训等针对性政策启示。     

“稳就业”还是“毁就业”？ 数字经济对农民工高质量就业的影响

在"数字中国"和"就业优先"战略背景下,数字经济释放就业效能被社会寄予诸多厚望,但其在理论文献上缺乏直接的经验证据。文章利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和278个城市数据的匹配数据,采用腾讯研究院发布的"互联网+数字经济指数"对数字经济进行测度,考察了数字经济对农民工高质量就业的影响。研究发现,数字经济对农民工高质量就业具有显著的正向影响。为克服实证模型的内生性问题,文章选取历史数据作为工具变量,所得结果依然支持数字经济对农民工高质量就业的正向效应。基于广义倾向得分匹配法分析发现,数字经济尽管正向影响农民工高质量就业,但在影响效应上却呈现"先上升后下降"的"倒U型",当数字经济为中等发展水平时,农民工高质量就业的边际效应达到最佳。这意味着今后以数字经济为抓手推动农民工高质量就业需遵从"适度"原则,需谨防过度数字化带来的"就业无效"和"就业低效"问题。进一步异质性分析发现,数字经济对"新生代"、"高技能"、从事制造业、交通运输业和居民服务业的农民工就业质量促进作用更明显。本研究为目前国家倡导"大力发展数字经济,促进就业提质扩面"提供了实证支撑,结论对推动农民工高质量就业具有重要政策启示。     

How Will the Implementation of Zero Tariffs Affect Employment in China?

This paper studies the employment effect of China's possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China's most‐favored‐nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China's signed free trade agreements (FTAs) with the tariff concessions in a typical high‐standard FTA. It finds that there is a large gap between China's current tariff status and a high‐standard FTA, and the implementation of zero tariffs in China would have a significant negative impact on employment in some industries. However, the employment effect of implementing zero tariffs is heterogeneous. Analysis at the industrial level shows that, although employment would drop in a few industries as a result of the implementation of zero tariffs, more jobs would be created in most industries. The overall employment effect of a zero tariff policy would be positive, creating an estimated 8.05 million jobs in China. Therefore, China should consider the adjustment costs brought by the labor movement in different industries and introduce relevant policies to deal with the employment shocks caused by zero tariffs.     

Impact of the 1996 Summer Olympic Games on Employment and Wages in Georgia

Using a standard differences-in-differences (DD) technique and a modified DD technique in the slopes, this paper determines that hosting the 1996 Summer Olympic Games boosted employment by 17% in the counties of Georgia affiliated with and close to Olympic activity, relative to employment increases in other counties in Georgia (the rate of growth increased 0.002 percentage points per quarter). Estimation of a random-growth model confirms a positive impact of the Olympics on employment. In addition, the employment impact is shown not to be merely a “metropolitan statistical area (MSA) effect”; employment in the northern Olympic venue areas was found to increase 11% more post- versus pre-Olympics than it did in other, similar southern MSAs. The evidence of an Olympic impact on wages is weak.     

MINIMUM WAGE POLICY AND ITS IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT IN THE URBAN FORMAL SECTOR

Since the late 1980s, minimum wages have become an important plank of the Indonesian government's labour policy. Their levels have increased faster in real terms than those of average wages and per capita gross domestic product and, as a result, minimum wages have become binding for the majority of formal sector workers. This study finds that the imposition of minimum wages has a negative and statistically significant impact on employment in the urban formal sector. The disemployment impact is greatest for female, young and less educated workers, while the employment prospects of white-collar workers are enhanced by increases in minimum wages. Some workers who lose jobs in the formal sector and have to relocate to the informal sector face lower earnings and poorer working conditions.     

金融危机对劳务经济的影响——基于河南省信阳籍农民工的调查

本文基于河南省信阳籍农民工的调查数据,分析金融危机对劳务经济的影响,以期为新形势下解决农民就业、增加农民现金收入的政策制定提供建议。研究发现,金融危机对劳务收入、回归创业、农民工权益维护以及输出地经济发展都有很大影响。最后,本文提出了应对危机,解决返乡农民就业问题的政策建议。     

Gains from Indonesian Export Growth: Do Linkages Matter?

Intersectoral input linkages are often used as a criterion for assessing the developmental impact of export-led industrialisation, and for determining export development policy priorities. The authors argue, in the light of recent Indonesian experience, that this closed-economy planning tool is fundamentally flawed as a criterion for evaluating policy and performance in an export-oriented growth strategy For the period 1985 to 1995 we examine the relationship of sectoral input linkages both to the employment impact of Indonesian manufactured exports and to the contribution of these exports to net foreign exchange earnings. We find that linkages have no significant correlation—and indeed sometimes a negative one—with employment and net export growth     

Evaluating the effect of soft business support upon small firm performance

The paper applies robust econometric techniques to assess theimpact of publicly-provided subsidised ‘soft’ businesssupport on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs). It considers the assistance for consultancy advice providedtowards marketing under the UK Enterprise Initiative, lookingat its effect on sales turnover, employment and survival, andmaking explicit allowance for selection effects. It is foundthat the policy has no impact on the survival of smaller SMEs,and that it is most effective in the mid-range SMEs, where itraises survival rates by about 4% over the longer run and growthrates in surviving firms by up to 10% per annum. Overall, thescheme has a substantial impact, but the paper draws attentionto the possible displacement effects.     

Medium term economic dynamics of the Euro Area

This paper analysis the Euro area’s growth over the last 15–20 years and provides a medium term outlook. We find that in a no policy change scenario, growth will be subdued, essentially reflecting the influence of weak pre-crisis trends, most notably for TFP (especially since the mid-1990’s). This trend will be exacerbated over the coming decade by the ongoing negative fallout from the financial crisis and by the emerging drag on growth emanating from ageing populations. Unlike in standard recessions, the GDP losses relative to a pre-crisis projection appear to be permanent. The picture presented could potentially improve with the implementation of an ambitious programme of structural reforms focussed on boosting employment and productivity. Since the usefulness of such policies is controversial in the current juncture with constrained monetary policy, the paper also looks at the impact of such reforms in a realistically calibrated model and concludes that fears of large permanent deflationary effects from structural reforms are exaggerated.     

缩小数字鸿沟对退休再就业是否有帮助

本文使用CHARLS 数据构建了Logit 模型，以数字鸿沟为核心解释变量，结合个人特征、社会保障和对外经济支持等方面分析了数字鸿沟对退休再就业的影响。研究发现，其中老年数字鸿沟能够减少退休后的受雇就业，导致更多的退休人口选择不就业，但是对退休后是否自雇就业没有影响。综合而言，缩小老年数字鸿沟对退休再就业有显著的积极作用。此外，男性退休后更倾向于受雇就业，女性通常更需要照顾家庭。年龄对退休后受雇就业和自主经营具有负向影响，且影响程度相当。健康状况和社交活动参与对退休再就业也有显著影响。基于研究结果，本文提出相应的对策建议。     

Trade and employment in Vietnam: how firms' trade matters

This paper aims to analyse how employment and wages change when a firm's trade status is altered. Using a detailed firm-level dataset of Vietnamese manufacturing enterprises, the study finds that how firms trade matters for firm employment and wages in Vietnam. The average effect of one-way trading (exporting or importing) is positive for both firms' total employment and female employment. Direct trading activities are associated with a higher level of employment than indirect trading activities by firms. The female employment effect of direct exports is nearly three times higher than direct imports. Indirect imports hurt firms' total employment and female employment. Both direct and indirect two-way traders experience higher growth in firm employment than direct-only traders. However, it is interesting to note that indirect two-way trading activities have a positive impact on female employment. Furthermore, the commencement of direct import is also associated with greater labour cost advantage.     

政策测量、政策协同与经济绩效——基于创新政策的实证研究(1978-2006)

通过量化后的政策,本文测量了政策之间的协同问题,并利用扩展的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数研究了政策协同与经济绩效之间的关系。文章的主要贡献在于给出了政策量化标准具体的操作手册,并得出一些新的结论:第一,经济增长与政策力度强相关;第二,技术引进与消化吸收的政策目标协同对经济绩效没有贡献,原因在于两者协同在政策层面的缺失;第三,财政税收与行政措施的协同对经济绩效具有显著的削弱作用,而金融外汇与行政措施的协同对经济绩效有显著的促进作用。     

Fed funds futures and the news

The objective of this paper is to determine whether the observed variation in the response of market interest rates over the 1990s to the news about employment is a result, at least in part, of changes in expectations for monetary policy. Fed funds futures rates, which embody predictions for the expected monthly average of the daily effective funds rate, are used to capture market participants' expectations for monetary policy in the face of employment surprises. It is found that unanticipated employment announcements have a positive and statistically significant impact on one- and three-month-ahead fed funds futures rates and the size of the impact declines over the 1990s, thereby coinciding with a noticeable decline in the frequency of adjustment in the fed funds target rate.     

Rural E-commerce and County Economic Development in China

With the proliferation of information and communication technology in rural areas, rural e-commerce has gradually become a new economic phenomenon in China. Using the national rural e-commerce comprehensive demonstration policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study examines the causal linkage between rural e-commerce and county-level economic development in China. Its findings, which draw on county-level panel data from 2011 to 2018, indicate that the policy had a positive effect on the county-level economy in China, resulting in an overall increase in county GDP by 3.5 percent (0.7 percent annually). Our analysis further shows that the impact of the policy differed along the region and human capital dimensions. Further analysis reveals that industrial structure and nonagricultural employment were the main channels for the policy to exert a county-level economic impact. Infrastructure improvement in China also plays an important role. The findings emphasize the importance of advancing e-commerce in rural areas to stimulate county-level economic development.     

The impact of demand management policies on black vs. white employment

This article uses vector autoregression analysis to examine the relative impacts on black and white employment growth of monetary and fiscal actions. It was found that the employment responses to anticipated policy actions, while significant, were generally short-lived, with the exception of the effects of anticipated money growth on white employment. The influences of unanticipated policy changes are of a longer duration. The predominant finding in which black employment growth responded differently from white employment growth was in response to a monetary shock. The black employment response was sharply negative while the white employment response was a gradual increase over nine quarters. The results indicate that this difference occurred only during the 1980s and not in the 1970s and suggests that the effects of bank failures and credit rationing during this period may have significantly hurt minority employment opportunities.     

A note on black-white wage disparity

Conclusion The evidence in this article helps to explain the black-white earnings differential in 1970, six years after the passage of Fair Employment Legislation, in terms of traditional measures such as experience and education along with a public policy measure that has of late come under fire. And contrary to the notion that the gains from such government policy have not benefited the less fortunate workers but simply accrued only, or mainly, to upper- or middle-class blacks, the results presented here indicate that enforcement, such as it is, has had beneficial effects for black men and women in virtually all major occupational categories. When a distinction is made between the various major occupational categories, the importance of education and experience as factors that contribute toward explaining black-white earnings differentials is generally supported by this study. However, neither education nor experience shows a consistent explanatory power across occupational categories and especially across the sexes. For example, experience is more frequently found to be a significant factor for black men than it is for black women. Education, on the other hand, was found to have no statistically significant relationship with wage differentials in major blue-collar job categories for both men and women, thus lending some credence to the dual labor market thesis regarding returns to education. By far the factor we have found to be the most consistent with respect to its impact upon racial wage differentials for both men and women is the fair employment variable. Indeed, across major occupational groups the existence and enforcement of fair employment laws seems to have had, generally, a more significant effect on reducing racial wage differentials than each of the other independent variables.     

农村劳动力回流、就业选择与农地转出——基于千村调查的经验研究

农村劳动力回流趋势增强,不可避免对农地流转产生影响。文章在理论层面深入剖析了回流劳动力的就业选择与农地转出关系,并采用上海财经大学"千村调查"的数据资料,实证检验了农村劳动力回流特征变化和回流劳动力就业选择对农地转出的影响。研究发现,受非农就业不稳定的推力作用和与家人团聚的拉力作用,越来越多的外出劳动力选择回流,西部外出劳动力回流率最高,达到47.2%。回流劳动力的农地转出率普遍高于非回流劳动力的农地转出率,回流劳动力从事非农生产的就业选择对农地转出存在促进效应,而兼业和务农的选择对农地转出存在抑制效应,这意味着回流农村劳动力并非一定会选择农业生产,也可能选择在更小的地理半径内从事非农就业,并且长期外出从事技术工的经历进一步增强了劳动力回流对农地转出的抑制效应。虽然回流劳动力更倾向非农就业,但回流劳动力规模的扩大,使得兼业和纯务农的比例增加,对农地转出的抑制效应呈增强趋势。研究还发现,个人特征、家庭因素、社会网络也是影响劳动力就业选择和农地转出的重要因素,基层政府和地方政府在推动非农就业的政策合力上存在部分抵消,对农地转出产生了抑制作用。文章为农地流转进程缓慢提供了新的解释,推进农地流转需要关注农村劳动力流动特征新变化,同时兼顾各层级政策目标的衔接性。