基于耕地发展权价值的内蒙古耕地数量、质量、生态三位一体保护研究

[目的]基于耕地发展权价值的测算,探析内蒙古耕地保护机制。[方法]文章通过对内蒙古自治区及其各盟市耕地发展权的测算,结合耕地数量、质量和生态服务价值等数,借助ArcGIS10.2软件、EXCEL软件分析三位一体耕地保护措施。[结果](1) 2020年内蒙古自治区31.84%耕地面积满足区域粮食自给,粮食总盈余量为2 263.66万t,折算成盈余耕地面积为777.99万hm²,耕地保护机会成本损失为77.38万元/hm²,耕地发展权最高总价值为6.020 274万亿元。其中用来保障国家粮食安全的耕地面积占55.23%,折算耕地面积为5 113.72万hm²,耕地发展权价值为3 957.11亿元。(2)各盟市中呼和浩特市的耕地保护机会成本最高,为228.32万元/hm²,其次为鄂尔多斯市,172.87万元/hm²,最低是兴安盟,为21.83万元/hm²;国家粮食安全和耕地保护政策背景下,呼伦贝尔市耕地发展权价值最高,为412.52.亿元,其次是赤峰市、通辽市、...     

基于GIS的河南省小麦区域节肥减排潜力评价

[目的]为研究河南省小麦节肥减排潜力。[方法]文章基于农业统计数据、2 063份农户小麦调研数据和1 582组小麦田间试验数据,采用ArcGIS系统分析河南省农户习惯管理下小麦氮磷钾肥施用量及区域间差异,评价不同区域与推荐施肥相比的节肥潜力;应用生命周期评价(life cycle assessment,LCA)方法,定量河南省及不同区域小麦温室气体(greenhouse gas,GHG)减排潜力及区域性差异,为我国农业可持续发展和环境保护提供科学依据。[结果](1)河南省农户小麦习惯施氮量平均198 kg/hm²(174～259kg/hm²),其中东部和北部相对较高,中部和南部较低;在节氮量方面,小麦单位面积节氮量平均为42 kg/hm²,在县域水平上差异很大,整体上由南往北逐渐增加。(2)农户小麦习惯施磷量平均为121 kg/hm²(64～210 kg/hm²),呈现北高南低、中部高低交错。平均单位面积节磷量为16 kg/hm²,以15～55 kg/hm...     

贵州省百香果种植适宜性评价

目的 百香果近几年在贵州域内推广种植,因当地整体气候环境条件与其最优生境条件存在较大差异,导致部分地区百香果无法越冬、成熟果实产量和质量较低等问题,因此分析贵州省百香果种植适宜性对其产业化发展具有指导意义。方法 文章将百香果种植适宜性评价体系分为两层：生长适宜层与现状限制层,生长适宜层除了5项常规生长指标（常年均温、最冷月均温等）外,考虑贵州百香果种植低产、质低的问题,引入百香果关键生长期（5—11月、7—8月）的温度作为生长指标之一;现状限制层包括5种不宜种植的土地利用类型和重度石漠化、极度石漠化以及坡度大于25°地区。运用空间叠加、栅格计算以及空间统计等GIS方法得出百香果种植适宜评价结果。结果 （1）评价等级面积：不适宜>次适宜>适宜,面积分别为1 456.096 457万hm²、274.224 849万hm²、31.348 694万hm²,全省无最适宜区分布。（2）次适宜区面积较广,但在黔西和黔中地区分布面积较少;适宜区涉及到25区县,81.71%适宜区集中在南北盘江流域低热河谷区域。（3）以适宜性评价结果为基础,区县为基本单元,根据适宜性程度进行百香果产业发展区划,其中重点5个、一般区11个、分散选育区27个、非推荐种植区45个。（4）可种植百香果贫困区县有22个,占贫困县总数的66.67%。结论 贵州省不适宜大面积种植百香果,33个贫困县中10个贫困县区县可作为百香果产业发展区。     

基于MaxEnt和GIS的山西省连翘潜在分布及适宜性分析

[目的]连翘是一味常用中药,在山西省分布广泛。预测连翘适宜种植区,有助于优化已有种植区的布局以及科学推广引种适宜种植区域,可为山西省贫困区县连翘合理种植提供参考。[方法]文章基于19个环境相关数据和98个连翘种植区采样点数据,采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和GIS空间分析法,构建自然、人文相结合的种植适宜性模型,预测连翘潜在分布及适宜性,筛选主导环境因子并探究其与存在概率之间关系。[结果]连翘在山西省种植的最适宜区、较适宜区、适宜区以及不适宜区面积分别为21 049.74km~2、35 655.15 km~2、44 707.90km~2和65 287.20km~2,分别占山西省总面积的12.63%、21.39%、26.82%和39.16%。其中,最适宜区集中分布在山西省的东南部地区,以临汾市、长治市分布最多;较适宜区分布在山西省南部地区,以运城市、晋城市分布最多;适宜区遍布山西省各个地市,但分布零散,受地形、坡度影响较大,不易形成规模生产,连翘的产量和质量均不高。从农户种植便利度、规模化种植灌溉便利度、农业物资运输便利度叠合分析得出,建议连翘的推广区为晋东南长治市、晋城市半丘陵区和太原市、晋中市交界区。刀切法测试表明,年最低气温、气温季节性变动是影响连翘潜在分布的两个最主要环境因子。[结论]连翘具有很高的社会经济价值,山西省大多数地区均适宜种植;在推广种植时应考虑农户种植便利度、规模化种植灌溉便利度、农业物资运输便利度等影响。     

农业政策调整下大豆种植格局变化对水土资源消耗的影响评估

[目的]通过对政策调整下农作物种植格局变化引起的水土资源消耗变化研究,从资源利用角度为种植格局调整的政策制定提供科学支撑。[方法]文章以黑龙江省为研究区,利用系统动力学方法构建大豆种植格局驱动机制模型,并模拟三大作物(即大豆、玉米和水稻)补贴政策情景下的作物种植面积转换;其次,核算三大作物生产中的水土资源消耗量,并获取不同政策情景下大豆与玉米和水稻种植面积转换引起的水土资源消耗变化量。[结果](1)黑龙江省大豆、玉米和水稻生产过程中单位面积的水资源消耗排序为“大豆<玉米<水稻”,单位产量的耕地资源消耗排序为“水稻<玉米<大豆”。(2)由于单位面积大豆的耗水量最少、单位产量大豆的耕地消耗量最多,当大豆生产者补贴增加40%时,大豆净增加面积最多(由玉米和水稻转入),因此三大作物生产过程中水资源消耗总量减少最多为2 400万m³,但耕地资源消耗仅增加3.2万hm²。[结论]农业补贴调整,不仅可以满足粮食的总体供给,优化作物种植格局、扩大大豆种植面积,进而减少大豆供给的不确定性,还可以实现区域水土资源的优化配置。该文结论可以为...     

基于GIS的六安市茶叶种植适宜性评价研究

[目的]调整和优化茶叶布局和生产,充分发挥六安市的自然资源优势。[方法]以"县域耕地资源管理信息系统"为平台,选择与茶叶生长相关的养分、土壤、理化性状和立地条件等13个因子为评价指标,通过专家打分确定其权重,并建立层次分析模型和隶属函数模型,用累积频率曲线法实现六安市茶叶适宜性评价。[结果]六安市适宜茶叶种植区面积为1.329 8万hm~2,占该市茶园面积的36.4%。[结论]高度适宜区面积为5 504.3hm~2,主要分布于霍山县和金寨县,山高云雾缭绕、雨水充沛、空气相对湿度大、漫射光多、土壤疏松、土质肥沃;适宜区面积为7 793.3hm~2,主要分布在霍山县、金寨县和舒城县,生态环境相对于高度适宜区次之,土壤呈酸性、弱酸性反应,通透性良好,适种性广;勉强适宜区面积为1.820 3万hm~2,该市均有分布,水、肥、气和热较为协调,质地以沙壤和轻壤至中壤为主,排涝能力一般;不适宜区主要分布在水光热资源相对较差、土层极薄和排水困难的地区。     

阿坝州小金县高原食用玫瑰生态气候分析与区划

[目的]食用玫瑰是小金县近年来重点发展的特色产业,做好食用玫瑰园区选址气候论证和生产气象服务,对该产业的科学规划、生产布局、降本增产、减灾增收等有重要作用。[方法]利用小金县1981—2015年的气象要素、近年来食用玫瑰生产情况和DEM地图等资料,运用数理统计、空间插值及最优分割法等GIS技术方法,对该县食用玫瑰气象条件的时空分布和主要气象灾害进行了系统性分析,选取并确定区划指标开展生态气候区划,计算各分区面积。[结果]影响小金县高原食用玫瑰种植的主要生态气候因子是热量条件,其适生区海拔高度上限为3 500m;主要气象灾害有干旱、低温冷害、大风等,其中干旱的影响较大。适宜区和次适宜区沿主要河流呈枝状分布,适宜区主要分布在海拔2 800m的抚边河、沃日河、小金川、汗牛河等4条河流、坡度25°的河沟谷地区,面积约4 438hm~2;次适宜区主要分布在抚边河、沃日河、小金川、汗牛河等4条河流及支流两岸海拔2 800～3 000m、坡度35°的半山地带,面积约1.265万hm~2;海拔3 000m的山原和高山区为不适宜或不适生区。适宜栽培区总面积约1.709万hm~2,县域占比约3%,目前已栽培面积不足适宜栽培区的5%。[结论]小金县海拔2 800m以下的4条主要河谷及半山区是高原玫瑰的主要规模适宜种植区,目前已开发的适宜区比重还很小,小金玫瑰还有很大的发展潜力。     

基于耕地多功能的江苏省耕地保护补偿标准研究

[目的]耕地保护补偿是耕地保护约束性政策的有力补充。文章基于耕地的多功能属性及不同功能在耕地保护中的作用,以江苏省为研究区域,探讨江苏耕地保护补偿标准。[方法]该文首先从生产、生态和社会3个层面构建耕地多功能评价指标体系,用熵权法评价得到耕地多功能指数,然后通过当量因子法和替代法计算得到耕地外部性价值,再结合耕地多功能评价和耕地外部性价值,将生态功能和社会功能指数的比重分别作为权重,对耕地生态价值和社会价值加权求和,并进一步修正得到江苏各市耕地保护补偿标准。[结果]以2018年为基期,计算得到基于耕地多功能评价的江苏省平均耕地保护补偿标准为0.859 7万元/(hm²·年),其中补偿标准最高的地区为连云港市,为1.144 6万元/(hm²·年),最低的为无锡市,为0.520 3万元/(hm²·年)。[结论]研究得出的耕地保护补偿标准兼顾耕地自身功能和价值,反映了耕地功能与补偿标准之间的联系,今后可从补偿资金供给、资金分配及利益调整机制等方面加以落实。     

云南省柠檬种植生态适宜性精细化区划分析

[目的]柠檬是典型的云南高原特色水果,作物生态适宜性区划是综合环境生态因子和空间分析工具的种植区划方法。[方法]研究采用德尔菲法从气候、土壤理化、地形地貌因子3个方面确定了10个生态适宜性评价指标,使用层次分析法进行各生态适宜性因子权重系数的确定,结合ArcGIS进行云南省柠檬种植生态适宜性精细化区划研究。[结果]德宏、普洱、西双版纳、临沧西部、红河南部及文山东部是种植适宜区,占全省面积的37.8%;保山、楚雄、大理南部、丽江东部、玉溪南部、红河北部、曲靖南部是种植次适宜区,占全省面积的33.7%;迪庆、怒江、丽江西部、昆明、昭通及曲靖是种植不适宜区,占全省面积的28.5%。[结论]研究方法可以推广应用到其他高原特色水果的生态适宜区种植区划,对指导作物科学选址具有重要意义,对合理规划生态布局、科学种植及尝试定向培育具有重要的指导意义。     

川西高原典型作物土地适宜性评价及其影响因素

目的 川西高原生态环境脆弱,经济发展水平低,开展生态脆弱区域典型作物土地适宜性分析,对农业生产的作物规划管理,以及拓宽当地农户增收致富渠道具有重要意义。方法 文章基于四川省土地利用现状数据,综合运用AHP层次分析法、栅格指数模型,构建川西高原典型作物土地适宜性目标层、准则层和指标层三级评价指标体系。结果 （1）典型作物土地适宜性评价因子中气候条件影响较大,社会经济条件影响相对较小。（2）大白菜种植适宜用地主要分布在大渡河中游和岷江流域,其中高适宜区1.652 5 万hm²;苹果种植适宜用地主要分布在大渡河流域河谷山地和岷山山脉,其中高适宜区36.121 5万 hm²;梨种植适宜用地主要分布在大渡河中游和岷江流域,其中高适宜区31.025 3万hm²;甜樱桃种植适宜用地主要分布在大渡河和岷江流域的河谷和山地,其中高适宜区16.891 4万hm²;核桃种植适宜用地主要分布金沙江、雅砻江、大渡河和岷江流域的河谷区,其中高适宜区41.913 7万hm²。（3）从县域空间尺度上评价,川西高原推荐种植核桃和梨的县（市）最多,分别为22个和16个。推荐种植大白菜的县（市）最少,只有3个。（4）川西高原农业产业光温条件好、气候垂直变化显著,但常受低温等极端天气影响;耕地比重小、分布零散且耕地质量低;低纬度高海拔同时地势高耸、地形破碎;交通和灌溉设施薄弱,自然—社会经济因素影响川西高原典型作物产业发展。结论 研究结果符合川西高原典型作物种植现状,但是该研究构建的土地适宜性评价体系中对内源性因素考虑不够,缺乏对劳动力、经营方式等因素的分析,同时缺少对科学技术、法律法规、政策、市场等外源性因素的思考。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.