福利政策选择的博弈分析

自奈特的不确定性经济学问世和纳什对博弈论的发展以来,人们多在微观经济层面使用博弈论方法。文章侧重从宏观层面使用博弈论方法来探讨经济福利政策。针对我国目前存在的问题,提出改善国民福利状况的福利政策制定的粗浅建议,与同仁们共同讨论。     

中国养老保险体系改革的福利经济学分析

本文用一个福利经济学框架推导出在社会福利最大化目标下现收现付制和基金制混合的养老保险体系的最优混合比率 ,模型中考虑了收入分配的因素 ,模型对过往研究中已有的结论进行了扩展 ,显示当一国的工资增长率和人口增长率之和大于投资报酬率 ,或者 ,当收入差距较大时 ,采用现收现付制有益于整个社会福利的改善。用这一框架分析中国的养老保险体系 ,并结合中国养老保险体系改革的特点 ,得出的结论是在当前及今后相当长的时间内 ,以现收现付制为主的体系可以作为中国养老保险体系的选择。文章进一步分析了现收现付制在中国持续运行的空间及其面临的挑战 ,指出这一制度的可持续运行最终取决于劳动生产率和产出的水平及增长     

中国教育的福利经济学分析

教育从微观和宏观两个层面对福利产生影响,教育投入不足、教育资源配置不合理、不同地区和家庭的孩子受教育的条件和机会不同等问题,会严重影响人们的福利水平。因此,文章提出要注重教育资源的合理配置,逐步加大教育投入力度,并建议用罗尔斯主义的福利观指导中国的教育改革。     

The Nonparametric Approach to Applied Welfare Analysis

Changes in total surplus are traditional measures of economic welfare. We propose necessary and sufficient conditions for rationalizing individual and aggregate consumer demand data with individual quasilinear and homothetic utility functions. Under these conditions, consumer surplus is a valid measure of consumer welfare. For nonmarketed goods, we propose necessary and sufficient conditions on input market data for efficient production, i.e. production at minimum cost. Under these conditions we derive a cost function for the nonmarketed good, where producer surplus is the area above the marginal cost curve. We are greatful to helpful remarks and comments of the referees and the editor. The work is partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology, through Grant BEC2002-2130, the Generalitat de Catlaunya, through Grant 2005SGR-00454 and the Barcelona Economics Program (CREA).     

Learning from Others: A Welfare Analysis

This paper considers a smooth and noisy version of the statistical prediction model studied in the herding/informational cascades literature and compares market and optimal learning. The latter is characterized by defining a decentralized welfare benchmark as the solution to an infinite horizonteamproblem. Market behavior involves herding, in the sense that agents put too little weight on their private information for any given precision of public information, and yields underinvestment in the production of public information. However, both market and optimal learning involveslowlearning. Examples of the model include learning by doing, reaching consensus, and consumer learning about quality.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: D82, D83.     

Welfare State and Welfare Society

This paper updates and extends my earlier work on how the middle class fares throughout the world based on the microdata sets that comprise the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS). Wave #6 LIS data, recently released and centered around 2004, provides an opportunity to assess what has happened to the size of the middle class around the world in the early 2000s. In contrast to the 1980s and 1990s, there was no noticeable decline in the middle class during the early 2000s. The paper provides further evidence that the size of the middle class in each nation depends mainly on government tax and spending policies. In particular, it shows the key role played by family allowances and paid family leave in supporting a national middle class.     

Free-Trade Areas and Welfare: An Equilibrium Analysis

This paper examines the welfare effects of the formation of a free-trade area. When a country is constrained to charge lower tariffs on imports from some countries, it is in its interest to reduce external tariffs as well. In alinear-quadratic model of intraindustry trade, the reduction in external tariffs induced by free-trade agreements is sufficiently large to make nonmember countries better off. Since only privately beneficial free-trade agreements are signed voluntarily, the formation of a free-trade area is a Pareto improvement. Owing to free-riding problems, however, the global free-trade area may not be a stable outcome.     

Welfare Analysis of Pension Reforms in an Ageing Japan

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations to explore the effects of different public pension schemes on economic welfare, and intergenerational and intragenerational equity. Besides the benchmark case based on the 2004 public pension reform, the present paper considers two alternative reforms: financing the basic pension benefit through a consumption tax, and eliminating the earnings‐related pension benefit. The simulation results suggest that even the consumption‐tax financing of only the basic pension, namely, the combination of both reforms, might not improve overall economic welfare, although it increases economic output by inducing capital formation.     

中国经济国民投资率的福利经济学分析

本文首次系统地从福利经济学角度出发,运用前沿计算方法,试图回答中国投资率是否过高这一重要问题。本文首先计算了两个投资率:一是境内投资率;二是国民投资率,即(境内投资+对外投资)/GDP。通过横向的对比,发现无论是境内投资率还是国民投资率,即便考虑高经济增长率,中国经济都远高于世界各国。其次,采用经济增长理论的基准模型,利用中国的参数进行校准,并且进行稳健性检验,运用逆向积分法模拟中国经济福利最大化的投资路径。结果表明,中国经济上世纪90年代平均境内投资率低于福利最大化的投资率6%,国民投资率4%;2002年后,平均境内投资高于福利最大化的投资率5%,国民投资率12%;1990—2008年实际投资相对福利最大化的投资路径总福利损失约为5.9%,相当于每期损失约3.8%的GDP。最后,本文进一步分析,如果适当地降低国民投资率,同时改善投资效率,中国经济的GDP增长率并不会大幅下降。     

Market Provision of Broadcasting: A Welfare Analysis

This paper presents a theory of the market provision of broadcasting and uses it to address the nature of market failure in the industry. Equilibrium advertising levels may be too low or too high, depending on the nuisance cost to viewers, the substitutability of programmes, and the expected benefits to advertisers from contacting viewers. The equilibrium amount of programming may also be below or above the socially optimal level. Perhaps surprisingly, the ability to price programming may reduce social surplus, while monopoly ownership may increase it.     

The Representative Consumer Approximation Bias in Discrete Choice Welfare Analysis

Discrete choice welfare analysis is essential in non-market valuation to accompany studies using choice experiments and recreation choice models. McFadden (in: Melvin, Moore, Riezman (eds) Trade, theory and econometrics: essays in honor of John S. Chipman, Routledge, London, 1999) shows that discrete choice welfare measures derived by the common representative consumer approach can be biased under nonlinear income effects, and the percentage bias increases monotonically with the size of quality improvement. We present contrary results that percentage measurement errors in such welfare measures can go either direction and provide conditions under which the direction of bias can be identified. We also show that price and non-price variables play different roles in discrete choice welfare analysis.     

Migration, Jobs and Welfare: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Immigration has been an important element of the economic development of many countries, although in recent years there has been an intensification of doubts about the benefits of further immigration. This paper brings some simple general‐equilibrium modelling tools to bear on the question of the employment and welfare effects of immigration. Employment and taxation effects, rather than wage and distributional effects, are found to be crucial in determining the impact of immigration on the welfare of factor‐owners in the receiving country. These employment effects depend on the type of immigration and the substitutability or complementarity relationships between immigrant labour and unemployed labour. Certain types of immigration are shown to be Pareto‐improving for the receiving country, without any need for lump‐sum transfers. Simple numerical simulations illustrate the results.     

开放条件下粮食政策实施的福利经济分析

本文研究目的在于建立一个结合关税配额制度、粮食补贴政策和生态退耕政策的粮食部门均衡模型GSEM,来模拟比较不同政策调整对粮食部门社会福利影响,从而对存在明显目标冲突的粮食政策进行调整优化.研究结论显示,关税配额制度和生态退耕政策会减少粮食部门社会福利,粮食补贴政策可以提高粮食部门福利,能够弥补市场开放对生产者福利损失,其中直接补贴政策中的面积补贴方式最有效率.     

农户金融抑制及其福利损失的计量分析

本文运用biprobit模型和match模型,采用3000个农户的微观数据,计量分析了农户金融抑制的程度及其福利损失的大小。研究发现,农户金融抑制的程度为70.92%;由于金融抑制,所有样本农户平均所损失的纯收入、净经营收入、消费性支出和非土地性资产分别为9.43%、15.43%、15.57%和14.58%,直接受到金融抑制的样本农户平均所损失的纯收入、净经营收入、消费性支出和非土地性资产分别为9.55%、16.83%、16.46%和14.70%;土地面积、教育和医疗费用支出,对农户资金需求具有正的显著影响,金融资产余额对农户资金需求具有负的显著影响,生产性固定资产原值、受教育水平、交通条件和地理位置对农户资金需求的影响不显著;土地面积、受教育程度、地理位置和“关系”对资金供给具有正的显著影响,固定资产总值、交通条件对资金供给的影响不显著。     

Reforming Social Welfare in Germany: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract. In this paper, the effects of social assistance reform proposals are discussed for the case of Germany using a computable general equilibrium model that incorporates a discrete choice model of labour supply. This allows us to identify general equilibrium effects of the reforms on wages and unemployment. The simulation results show that general equilibrium wage reactions mitigate labour supply effects and that unemployment in fact decreases. Wage reactions are thus sufficiently strong to prevent additional labour supply from translating into higher unemployment. The simulations indicate that major cuts in welfare payments are necessary to produce substantial employment effects.     

Foreign Aid, Infrastructure Development and Welfare: An Intertemporal Analysis

The author examines the welfare implications of foreign aid within the framework of a two-period, two-country model of international trade. It is up to the donor country to decide what fraction of any given aid package is to be made available for the recipient's immediate consumption in period one, and what part should be allocated for investment in infrastructure that expands the recipient's production possibilities in period two. The focus of the analysis is on the conditions under which both countries agree or disagree on the manner in which the aid funds should be divided between the two options.