Financing investment in East Asia: Regional or global savings?

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic investment in East Asian countries is financed by domestic, (East Asian) regional and global savings in order to infer the relative importance of regional vs. global capital markets in East Asia. Panel regression results show that regional saving in East Asia plays a much more important role than global saving in financing investment in the region. The results suggest that global capital flows, despite its huge volume in East Asia, does not contribute to proper investment financing. The results also show that Japanese saving has significant effects on regional investment but Chinese saving does not.     

Firm-level Utilization Rates of Regional Trade Agreements: Importers’ Perspective

This study provides evidence of firm-level utilization of regional trade agreements (RTAs) using transaction-level import data for Thailand. Two stylized facts are presented: some firms use RTA schemes in imports from RTA partner countries, whereas others do not; among firms that import from RTA partner countries under RTA schemes, some use RTA schemes for all transactions but others use them only for some transactions. To interpret these observations, we focus on the role of importers’ demand size. Specifically, we reveal that import firm-product-level RTA utilization rates are higher for larger-size importers in terms of demand, indicating that the difference in the share of utilization of RTA schemes across importers stems from the difference in the importers’ demand size. We also find that the utilization rates are higher when the preference margin, defined as most-favored-nation tariff rate minus RTA rate, is larger.     

Why Do Countries Form Regional Trade Agreements? A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

Open Economies Review - This paper seeks to determine why countries form regional trade agreements. Using bilateral data from 1950 to 2013 for 468 trade agreements and 179 countries, I use survival...     

Are Labour Provisions in Free Trade Agreements Improving Labour Conditions?

Open Economies Review - This paper investigates the impact of labour provisions in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on labour market conditions in the ratifying countries. Using panel data for up to 96...     

Why Doesn't Regional Integration Improve Income Convergence in Africa?*

Abstract: This paper investigates why regional integration does not improve income convergence in Africa, despite the common goal of more open and freer trade. Based on empirical analysis using African countries data, the paper presents the evidence that there has been little progress in income convergence in Africa. The paper shows that despite the importance of regional integration there has been limited progress and prospects of the African integration process are not as promising as would be expected for such an important pillar in Africa's development agenda.     

Is an Optimum Currency Area Feasible in East and South East Asia?

Abstract

In the backdrop of the recent economic crisis in the European Union, this study attempts to assess the degree of regional integration and the suitability of a monetary union in the East and South-East Asian (ESEA) region. For this purpose, we analyse the issue in a variety of ways. First, a long-run linkage of real output of the countries is tested using the cointegration analysis. Results suggest that real output of most of the countries in the region is cointegrated and move together in the long-run. To analyse the issue in detail, we focus on the impact of three different shocks, namely global, regional and country-specific, on real output of the countries. Results of impulse response and variance decomposition analysis reveal that regional shocks do not dominate in the sample countries, which is an indication of unfavourable condition to form an optimal currency area (OCA) in the region. These results are further confirmed by the outcome of computation of the modified Bayoumi and Eichengreen's Indices. Finally, we employ the concept of Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G-PPP), which however reveals that the bilateral real exchange rate of ESEA countries move together in the long-run and share a common stochastic trend, which in turn provides some empirical support for an OCA in the region.     

Toward A Financial Architecture in East Asia:A Proposed Roadmapand Chinas Perspective

I. IntroductionThe painfulness of the financial crisis in 1997/1998 and the reflection afterwards triggeredmuch consideration on the need of a close financial cooperation in the region. There aresome common thoughts shared by the countries in the region, such as: (1) financial crisisin the region has a strong contagious effect; (2) regional economies have been integratedrapidly through trade and investment, despite the diversity of the degree of economicdevelopment and maturity of financial ma…     

China＇s Trade Acceleration and the Deepening of an East Asian Regional Production Network

China＇s recent surge in trade has been associated with its deepening but contrasting trade relations with its two groups of key trading partners. On the one hand, China＇ s trade surpluses with the USA and the EU have risen rapidly, reaching US$144bn and US$91bn in 2006, respectively. On the other hand, China is importing heavily from its Asian neighbors. This diverging pattern of trade relations between China and its main trading partners reflects the continuous expansion and intensification of a complex cross-border production network in Asia, particularly for consumer electronics. In the process of deepening manufacturing sharing, China serves as an essential export platform for firms headquartered in the more advanced economies. These firms export intermediate goods from the relatively more advanced Asian economies to their affiliates in China where these inputs are assembled and then shipped to key export markets, including primarily the USA and the EU. One apparent outcome of the growing processing and assembly trade is the increased interdependency among Asian economies, which are now more dependent on each other than ever. It has also led to substantial structural changes and technological upgrading in China＇ s traded goods.     

A Roadmap for Policy Dialogue and Economic Surveillance in East Asia

I. IntroductionOn 4th May, 2005, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China, Japan and Korea(ASEAN+3) decided to take a significant step toward financial cooperation in East Asia.The Finance Ministers of the 13 ASEAN+3 countries agreed to strengthen the Chiang MaiInitiative (CMI) into a more effective and disciplined framework by: (1) integrating the CMIwith an enhanced economic surveillance process for the ASEAN+3 countries; (2) adoptinga collective activation and decisio…     

Exchange-rate policy in East Asia after the fall: how much have things changed?

This paper evaluates the changes in the exchange-rate policies of East Asian economies in the aftermath of the currency crisis and the process in which the exchange-market stability was re-established. The empirical analysis evaluates the changing roles of the yen and the US dollar in the currency baskets, the shifts in the volatility of the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals and their implications on exchange-rate management, the exchange-market perception of credibility and risk of the postcrisis exchange-rate regimes, and the process of reversion to fundamental values after the massive currency depreciation.The analysis shows that after the abandonment of the quasi-dollar peg, the yen had gained a greater weight in the currency baskets and the greater flexibility in which the exchange rates are being managed serve to accommodate the greater volatility in the macroeconomic fundamentals. The improvement in the macroeconomic conditions and the greater credibility that has been acquired by the regional monetary authorities had allowed the exchange market to stabilize and enabled the exchange rates to revert back to their fundamental values.     

Regional inequalities and the West–East divide in Turkey since 1913

This paper examines the evolution of regional disparities within the present-day borders of Turkey since 1913. Based on our estimates for 58 provinces, we find β-convergence, an inverse U, and more recently, the beginnings of an N-shaped pattern for value added per capita. We also find that regional disparities in Turkey exhibit a number of special features that do not easily fit the well-studied pattern of the early industrializers. First, while per capita value added in other regions moved towards country averages, the differences between the East and the rest of the country persisted and even increased until recently. Second, spatial distribution of economic activity became more concentrated over time due to continued migration to the megacity of Istanbul. Third, we find that regional disparities in per capita value added in Turkey and other developing countries have been higher than those experienced by the early industrializers. These findings raise questions about the extent to which the regional disparities experiences of Turkey and other developing countries have been different than those of the early industrializers.     

Technology transfer in East Asia and its implications for regional cooperation∗

The importance of technology in economic development is indisputable. A large part of the developmental process in East Asian countries has been greatly accelerated by the transfer of technology from developed countries. This paper, based on detailed data obtained from selected samples of about 100 companies in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia, examines several key determinants of the process of acquisition, assimilation and internalization of imported technology in business enterprises. Drawing on the findings, this paper also suggests several implications for regional cooperation in enhancing the process of technology transfer in East Asia.     

Growth Slowdown in China since 2008: Will There Be a Hard Landing in the Near Future?

China has witnessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China's growth slowdown since 2008 up to 2013 using a growth accounting model in a systematic way. It is found that China's growth slowdown since 2008 almost completely comes from a sharp slowdown in total factor productivity growth. During this period, the positive effect on growth from expanding investment has been completely offset by the negative effect of the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. Currently, China's economy has slid into the Solow downward path. Under these circumstances, a soft landing is completely infeasible. Unless the Chinese Government implements substantial rebalancing and comprehensive and in‐depth market‐oriented reform, accompanied by large‐scale de‐investment (decreasing in the ratio of investment in GDP) and massive employment adjustment, China will be unable to avoid the Solow downward path, and a hard landing in investment will be inevitable in the near future.     

China and India in World Trade: Are the Asia Giants a Threat to Malaysia?1

Abstract

With higher shares in world merchandise trade and improvements in product quality, China is better positioned than India in the near term for influencing global trade. From the Malaysian perspective, China represents a non-negligible share in Malaysia's trade. The trends in bilateral trade with both Giants however suggest that competition has intensified. Relative to India, China appears to promulgate a more influential role on Malaysia via higher commodity overlap in external markets, greater matched trade that is of vertical differentiation, distinct quality shifts and negative adjustment pressures. Within this broad rubric of trade-induced changes, there is no evidence of skill upgrading for Malaysia in trade expansion with both Giants. This mirrors the lack of product quality improvements and the low levels of export values of high quality varieties in matched trade. Hence trade induced changes from the Giants that have been cited to be favourable from the Malaysian perspective in previous studies, may have been grossly overstated.     

Exploring dimensions of regional economic integration in East Asia: More than the sum of its parts?

No single measure of real or financial integration sufficiently captures all of the salient characteristics of the extent of integration between individual economies and of economies within particular regional groups. This paper introduces the idea of utilising and combining the effects of a number of individual measures of integration and, in doing so, presents an assessment of the stylised facts around bilateral and regional real and financial integration for the ASEAN5 and the large industrial Asian countries for the period 2000–2009. By using many measures, one should be able to achieve two objectives. The first is to capture many of the main attributes of integration in order to further provide insight into the integration landscape in East Asia. The second is to investigate which individual (if any) measure drives the overall level of integration and, as such, address the question of what might be the possible sources of integration between countries in the region. This has significant policy implications about how to best target policies of liberalisation in both goods and financial markets as well as informing the ongoing debate about optimal currency areas (OCA) and a possible monetary union in Asia.