The accounting and market consequences of accelerated share repurchases

We evaluate the representational faithfulness of the accounting treatment of a recent and well-established type of structured transaction—accelerated share repurchases (ASRs). ASRs are popular because accretive earnings per share benefits are recognized immediately, while any gains or losses on the forward contract used to execute an ASR bypass income, and are reported directly in equity. We document lower value relevance for the liabilities of ASR companies compared with a size- and industry-matched sample. ERC tests also indicate a market discount for the earnings of ASR companies compared with the control sample. Finally, we document significant abnormal returns to a trading strategy based on unrealized gains or losses on ASR transactions. Our results indicate that the current accounting for ASRs does not result in representative reporting of these transactions. As a result, financial statement users might benefit from recognition of ASR elements in financial statements.     

Stock investment strategy combining earnings power index and machine learning

We propose an intermediate-term stock investment strategy based on fundamental analysis and machine learning. The approach uses predictors from the Earnings Power Index (EPI) as input variables derived from cross-sectional and time-series data from a company’s financial statements. The analytical methods of machine learning allow us to validate the link between financial factors and excess returns directly. We then select stocks for which returns are likely to increase at the time of the next disclosed financial statement. To verify the proposed approach’s usefulness, we use company data listed publicly on the Korean stock market from 2013 to 2019. We examine the profitability of trading strategy based on ten machine-learning techniques by forming long, short, and hedge portfolios with three different measures. As a result, most portfolios, including EPI-related variables, present positive returns regardless of the period. Especially, the neural network of the two layers with sigmoid function presents the best performance for the period of 3 months and 6 months, respectively. Our results show that incorporating machine learning is useful for mid-term stock investment. Further research into the possible convergence of financial statement analysis and machine-learning techniques is warranted.     

杠杆率变动、固定资产投资与研发活动——兼论金融赋能高质量发展

本文通过构建一个包含企业固定资产投资与研发投资的理论模型,分析得出企业杠杆率变动与投资行为的非线性关系。实证结果表明,低杠杆下,杠杆率的增大会使企业增加固定资产和研发投资的规模。对于财务柔性更强、发展前景更好的企业,杠杆率的提升能够增大此类企业的研发投入占比,即企业开展更多能够提升技术水平的研发活动。进一步研究发现,短期杠杆与商业信用杠杆的提升有助于财务柔性较好的企业提高研发投资占比,而对于发展前景不佳的僵尸企业,长期杠杆和银行杠杆的提升反而会使其扩大固定资产投资,加剧产能过剩问题。本文的政策含义在于,要在保持宏观杠杆率基本稳定的前提下,引导金融资源更多投入到创新型经济上,给予优质及前景较好的企业一定杠杆率调整空间和自由度,使其能够更好地利用社会资金,激励其开展研发活动,促进金融更好地服务实体经济,赋能高质量发展。     

Federal financial guarantees and the occasional market pricing of default risk: Evidence from insured deposits

This paper develops a two-date state preference model which demonstrates that investors' valuation of third-party guaranteed debt depends on the financial condition of the guarantor. As the solvency ratio of the guarantor declines, investors demand higher promised rates on the firm's debt securities and price the firm risk variables more sensitively.The empirical results are derived from sample data of FSLIC guaranteed obligations from the late 1980s. Evidence shows differences in the market's perception of FSLlC's insolvency between 1987 and 1988. The market response to a decline in the financial condition of the guarantor affected the value of insured CDs, raising CD rates in relation to the Treasury curve and firm risk pricing of insured deposits emerged.     

The Determination of the Seniority Structure of Debt: Theory and Evidence

The purposes of this paper are to provide a theory of determining the firm's optimal seniority structure of debt and examine the relation between the firm's seniority structure of debt and its characteristics. Unlike previous studies, we develop a theoretical model which explicitly includes the benefits and costs associated with senior debt financing, corporate taxes, risk-aversion in the capital market, and costs of financial distress. We next show how a value-maximized firm searches for the optimal trade-off among the present values of the tax advantage of debt, loss of tax credits, expected costs of financial distress, costs of senior debt financing, and benefit of limited liability. Numerical analysis results show that the firm's value is not only a strictly concave function of its capital structure (with a unique global maximum), but also a strictly concave function of its mix of senior and junior debts (with a unique global maximum). We then show that a firm's optimal seniority structure of debt (i.e. the market value of senior debt divided by the sum of the market values of senior and junior debts) increases for low levels of asset riskiness and decreases when asset riskiness becomes sufficiently great. Our model also suggests that a firm's optimal seniority structure of debt increases for low levels of growth opportunities and decreases for high levels of growth opportunities. We test the predictions of our model on the relation between the firm's seniority structure of debt and its characteristics by using the data for the firms in COMPUSTAT over the 1972 through 1991 time period. The empirical evidence is consistent with our theoretical predictions.     

A Dynamic Model of Optimal Capital Structure

This paper presents a continuous time model of a firm that candynamically adjust both its capital structure and its investmentchoices. In the model we endogenize the investment choice aswell as firm value, which are both determined by an exogenousprice process that describes the firm's product market. Withinthe context of this model we explore cross-sectional as wellas time-series variation in debt ratios. We pay particular attentionto interactions between financial distress costs and debtholder/equityholderagency problems and examine how the ability to dynamically adjustthe debt ratio affects the deviation of actual debt ratios fromtheir targets. Regressions estimated on simulated data generatedby our model are roughly consistent with actual regressionsestimated in the empirical literature.     

Information asymmetry and investment–cash flow sensitivity

Models of capital market imperfections predict that information asymmetry decreases firm investment and increases the sensitivity of investment expenditures to fluctuations in internal funds. Previous empirical tests of the link between investment and financing decisions have relied on indirect measures of financial constraint due to market frictions. In contrast, we use more direct measures derived from the market microstructure literature. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, our analysis shows that scaled investment expenditures are on average lower and the investment–cash flow sensitivity is greater when the probability of informed trading is high. Our results are robust to alternative measures of informed trading and liquidity, but they are not pervasive in our sample.     

The disclosure policy of the firm in an efficient market

This study analyzes the information content of the financial reports of the management-controlled firm in an efficient market. The firm's disclosure fulfills two roles: it is the basis of the principal-agent contract—stewardship role, and it is an input to the market price informativeness (decision making) role. Optimal disclosure is derived as the outcome of the firm's owner-manager-potential buyer game. The seller and the buyer maintain principal-agent relationships with the manager, who alone observes verifiable and unverifiable information on the value of the firm. The market's price of the firm, as well as the manager's compensation, depend on the firm's reports. The firm's owner directs the manager to report verifiable information, at least, (due to the threat of coalition forming) and stewardship information, at most. The market's reaction to the financial reports depends on the information available to the market prior to their release.     

The complementary relationship between financial and non-financial information in the biotechnology industry and the degree of investor sophistication

We examine whether financial and non-financial variables, separately and in tandem, are value relevant in explaining market returns, equity values and the degree of investment by sophisticated investors for a sample of drug development companies. Patent counts, number of collaborations and probability-adjusted portfolios of drugs under development are the non-financial information metrics used in this study. Earnings are the main financial information variable. We show that news about these non-financial measures is significantly associated with abnormal returns. We also find that earnings are value relevant in explaining cumulative abnormal returns and equity prices around earnings announcement dates despite the fact that R&D expenditures are large and usually expensed as incurred. We further show that non-financial information is value relevant in explaining annual returns, equity prices and degree of investment by (long-horizon) sophisticated investors. Moreover, non-financial variables are value relevant after controlling for financial variables suggesting that the two types of variables are complements.     

The effect of relative performance evaluation on earnings management: a game-theoretic approach

Because investors and creditors often compare the financial statements of similar or competing firms when deciding how to allocate their funds, it is likely that a firm's financial well-being depends on how well it performs relative to its rivals. In this paper, we consider the problem of earnings management as a non-cooperative game among several firms, in which each firm seeks a comparison advantage through its financial statement numbers. Our model indicates that firms may exaggerate their earnings in a world driven by multi-firm-comparisons simply because they expect other firms to do so. Thus, very little may be needed for earnings management to emerge in the Nash equilibrium. Our results hold under the following conditions. First, investors and creditors are not able to unravel the earnings management, thus ensuring that some information asymmetry remains. Second, investors and creditors make inter-firm comparisons when assessing firm value. Third, firms care about their own fundamental value as well as the market's perception about firm value. We also show that the equilibrium amount of earnings management depends on the characteristics of the earnings management technique itself and on the proportion of stockholders who are long-term investors in the firm.     

Investability and Firm Value

We study how investability, or openness to foreign equity investors, affects firm value in a sample of over 1,400 firms from 26 emerging markets. We find that, on average, investability is associated with a 9% valuation premium (as measured by Tobin's q). This significant valuation premium persists in firm‐fixed effects regressions, although the magnitude and robustness of the premium is somewhat lower. Analysis of the components of Tobin's q shows that firms that become investable experience significant increases in both market values and physical investment. These effects are strongest for firms that face country‐level or firm‐level financial constraints prior to becoming investable.     

Ownership of Cross–Listed Equities: An Investigation of Turnover, Diversification, and Risk

Using data for a sample of Malaysian stocks that are traded in both Malaysia and Singapore, we show that the turnover rate (trading volume relative to shares held) is significantly higher in the foreign market than in the domestic market. We also find that ownership of cross–listed shares by foreign investors is not motivated by diversification benefits. Instead, we find that the proportion of a firm's shares held in Singapore is directly related to the firm's level of systematic risk.     

An Analysis of the Underreported Magnitude of the Total Indirect Costs of Financial Distress

In this paper we examine 1,041 ongoing firms over the time period 1982–92. Using quarterly data for the detection and measurement of the magnitude of the indirect costs of financial distress, we find three important explanatory factors: (a) the distinctiveness of the pattern of increasing financial distress over time, (b) the degree of leverage in the capital structure and (c) the size of the firm. For those firms with a distinctive pattern of increasing financial distress over time, the average annual losses as a percentage of market value is –10.3%. The maximum loss is –76%. Even if the firm never fails, its market value can be severely impacted by the presence of the indirect costs of bankruptcy over time. This study finds a significantly positive relationship between Altman's Z-score and the firm capital investment growth rate. This relation holds after controlling for other variables such as leverage, firm size and market/book ratio. This implies that lost investment opportunities may be also an important part of the total indirect costs of financial distress, which appear now to be much larger than previously recorded.     

Analyst Coverage and Intangible Assets

This study examines the relation between analysts' incentives to cover firms and the extent of their intangible assets. Because intangible assets typically are unrecognized and estimates of their fair values are not disclosed, absent analyst coverage firms with more intangible assets likely have less informative prices. Accordingly, we expect analysts have greater incentives to cover firms with more intangible assets and, thus, predict they have higher analyst coverage. As predicted, we find that analyst coverage is significantly greater for firms with larger research and development and advertising expenses relative to their industry, and for firms in industries with larger research and development expense. We also predict and find that analyst coverage is increasing in firm size, growth, trading volume, equity issuance, and perceived mispricing, and is decreasing in the size of the firm's analysts' brokerage houses and the effort analysts expend to follow the firm. These findings indicate that analyst coverage depends on private benefits and costs of covering a firm. We also test hypotheses related to analyst effort. We predict and find that analysts expend greater effort to follow firms with more intangible assets, after controlling for other factors associated with analyst effort. Our evidence indicates that intangible assets, most of which are not recognized in firms' financial statements, are associated with greater incentives for analysts to cover such firms, and greater costs of coverage. An open question is whether financial statement recognition of intangible assets could more efficiently provide information about such assets to investors.     

Assessing the relevance of an information source to trading from an adaptive-markets hypothesis perspective

I propose a framework motivated by the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) to analyze the relevance of a specific information source for the trading of a given security. To illustrate the applicability and advantages of this methodology, I explore the extent to which the financial statement (FS) is relevant for Credit Default Swap (CDS) trading. Specifically, I adopt a Bayesian Model Averaging approach to examine properties of the accounting metrics that enter the implied trading heuristics of the market participants. Hypothesis-testing is conducted on various horizons around the announcement dates of corporate results. The diversity of trading rules and the shift in the heuristics mix that occurred after 2008 support the AMH perspective. Overall, results show that there is a significant component of profit-motivated trading in the CDS market that relies on financial statement information, even after controlling for information transmission from alternative trading forums. Out of sample trading strategies confirm the robustness the main findings.     

Financial reporting and firm valuation: relevance lost or relevance regained?

In this study, I examine whether balance sheet and income statement numbers have lost or regained their relevance over the last 30 years. Institutional and macroeconomic factors like the global trend towards strengthening regulation and harmonising financial reporting, the extended use of fair values over historical cost, and the recurring occurrence of accounting scandals, market bubbles, and financial crises make it likely that the role of financial reporting for firm valuation has changed. Following prior research, I estimate four models for the concurrent relation between market value and accounting numbers, and then examine the pattern in explanatory power over time. I find that the loss in relevance of the income statement continues in recent years and is present in a large international sample, in particular in countries with strong institutions. While the overall relevance of the balance sheet remains stable, I find a downward trend during the first sample half, which reverses in the second half, especially in common law countries with strong investor protection, strict disclosure requirements, and integrated markets. Even though several caveats apply, the results suggest that changes in the economy, the institutional environment, and in how firms operate affect the relative importance of accounting information for the use in firm valuation by outside stakeholders.     

企业信用行为与失信惩戒机制：一个基于信用资本的分析框架

本文通过一个基于代表性企业与银行之间的博弈模型,讨论了信用资本的性质、价值度量及其对企业借贷行为的影响。文章认为,信用资本的性质与价值量将会影响到企业的财务与融资决策行为。信用信息共享为降低银行信贷风险、扩大信贷规模提供了一个基础设施,而有效的失信惩戒机制在其中起着关键作用。因此,我国应尽快建立包含有效的守信激励和失信惩戒机制的信用信息共享体系,这也可看作是对我国信用体系建设热潮的一个理论解释。     

An analysis of factors influencing asset writedowns

This study investigates the magnitude of total asset writedowns for a random sample of Australian industrial companies. We adopt an income strategy approach in operationalising our magnitude of writedowns construct to consider the set of accounting policies and negative accruals potentially available to managers. Our focus is on the incentives for and constraints on management to make asset writedowns. We find that the magnitude of writedowns observed are associated with managers' incentives to writedown impaired assets that have declined in value, as well as the firm's capacity to absorb the financial statement effects of the writedown. The number of senior management changes found to be associated with greater writedowns in prior studies is also supported in this study when only writedowns taken to the income statement are considered. The quality of corporate governance mechanisms does not vary systematically with the magnitude of writedowns.     

Signaling,Financial Slack and Corporate Acquisitions

This paper shows that under certain conditions a firm's decision concerning the optimal medium of exchange to use in acquiring another firm is related to the decision of which source of capital should be used to finance long-term projects. An example of this type of interaction occurs when the firm's only source of financing a positive net present value project is an equity issue. In a Myers and Majluf (1984) world of asymmetric information the value maximizing strategy for the firm is to forego the public equity offering and instead use a stock offer to acquire a firm possessing financial slack. The process is modeled using an extension of the Myers and Majluf (1984) model and demonstrates how the acquisition alternative allows managers to separate the signals regarding the investment and financing decisions. Including net pension assets into our measure of financial slack, we provide empirical supports for the ability of the extended model to explain observed merger activity.     

Equity market information,bank holding company risk,and market discipline

For market discipline to be effective, market factors such as changes in firm equity and debt values and returns, must influence firm decision making. In banking, this can occur directly via bank management or indirectly though supervisory examinations and oversight influencing bank management. In this study, we investigate whether equity market variables can provide timely information and add value to accounting models that predict changes in bank holding company (BOPEC) risk ratings over the 1988–2000 period. Using a variety of equity market indicators, the findings suggest that one-quarter lagged market data adds forecast value to lagged financial statement data and prior supervisory information in the logistic regressions. Furthermore, using extensive out-of-sample testing for the years 2001–2003, we find: (1) that multiple models estimated over different phases of the business and banking cycles are superior to a single model for forecasting BOPEC rating changes; (2) that equity data adds economically significant power in forecasting BOPEC rating upgrades and performs well for identifying no changes; (3) that for downgrades, the accounting model forecasts the best; (4) that modeling the three possible risk ratings categories simultaneously (downgrade, no change and upgrade) minimizes both Type I and Type II classification errors; and (5) that using multiple models to forecast risk ratings enhances the overall percentage of correct classifications.