国外棕地治理对我国城市闲置土地利用的启示

棕地作为工业化发展导致的一种闲置土地的类型其在国外的相关研究已比较深入,将其引入为我国闲置土地利用研究提供借鉴具有重要意义。通过介绍棕地的概念内涵及国外主要国家的棕地治理模式,将棕地和我国闲置土地进行对比分析,借鉴国外棕地的再利用模式,为我国闲置土地研究及再利用提供一些经验启示,并从中寻找适合我国闲置土地再利用的治理模式。     

城市湖景对住宅价格的空间影响——以杭州西湖为例

城市湖泊具有重要的景观生态价值,对住宅价格的影响显著,一直受到国内外学者的关注。以杭州西湖为例,采用2011年杭州市6城区649个住宅小区的相关数据,建立传统特征价格模型,并从方向—距离异质性两个维度对模型进行改进,实证分析城市大型景观中心对住宅价格的空间影响差异。结果表明:①西湖对杭州市住宅价格具有显著的正向外部性效应,到西湖的距离每增加1%,住宅价格将下降0.226%。②西湖对住宅价格的影响存在显著的方向异质性,平均的空间影响范围为5.62km,但在不同方向上西湖的价格弹性呈现明显差异。③在以西湖为中心、同心圆状向四周扩散的过程中,住宅价格对西湖距离的空间敏感性呈现出先急剧减小后缓慢增大的趋势。     

A study of virtual land trade between China and ASEAN based on material flow analysis model

In this paper,based on the material flux analysis model（MFA） and its corresponding theories and algorithms of ＂virtual land＂ virtual land contents of five primary agricultural products are calculated and＂Virtual land trade＂hidden in those imported and exported products are also obtained through analyzing the primary agricultural product trade between China and ASEAN. In the process of calculationl following the thought of Changing agricultural products to ＂Virtual land trade＂land content, trade condition and spatiai distribution of agricultural products Were integratedly considered. indicate that China exported 73;057 km^2 of virtual land area to ASEAN by tea, vegetables; maize and grain, ASEAN exported： 57.332 km^2 to China by natural rubber from 2002 to 2005. It obvious; that china has lost 15,725 km^2 arable land through agricultural product trade, Additionally, in order to process： of calculation Virtual land trade, Thailand taker as an example to analyze its international trade of rice and Wheat from 1991 to 2005 and Calculate their ＂Virtual land trade＂ 2001 through 2005. According to and calculation, it is not difficult to conclude that ＂Virtual land trade＂ very important and could be used for China to guide agricultural export or import Structure and maintain Sustainable use of land resources.     

基于模糊物元分析法的耕地健康评价

作为不可替代的有限自然资源,耕地是向人类提供食物的主要基地,它的健康直接关系到农产品安全和人体健康。在农用地分等、多目标地球化学调查数据的基础上,从质量、产能和土壤环境三个方面构建了耕地健康评价体系框架;以地块为评价单元,通过模糊物元法进行图层属性计算,对研究区耕地健康状况进行综合评价,期望能够为同类地区开展土地资源健康评价研究提供借鉴。     

基于科学发展观的土地资源管理

科学的发展观指出了今后我国国民经济乃至在社会的整体发展思路,同时为我们新时期土地资源管理工作人员指明了工作思路。本文由我国土地资源现存情况入手,从科学的发展观的角度出发,对我国土地资源管理工作中的统筹规划做了建议性总结,提出了规划建设目标。     

北京市二手住宅价格影响机制——基于多尺度地理加权回归模型(MGWR)的研究

文章基于多尺度地理加权回归研究北京市2011—2017年二手住宅交易的价格特征,结果表明:①以往基于经典地理加权回归模型的研究可能存在一定的不稳健,而多尺度地理加权回归可以将不同变量对于因变量的影响尺度反映出来,其回归的结果更为可靠。②北京房价对区位因素非常敏感,且存在高度的空间异质性,区位的影响尺度是所有变量中最小的,接近于街道尺度。而卧室数量和到最近地铁站的距离为全局尺度的变量,在空间上的影响较为平稳。到公交站的距离、到小学的距离、建筑结构和装修状况对于房价的影响不显著。其他显著的变量均存在一定的空间异质性,其空间尺度由小到大分别为成交时间、面积、楼龄、楼层、朝向。③区位、朝向、卧室数量、成交时间均正向影响房价,而面积、楼龄、楼层、到地铁站的距离负向影响房价。所有影响因素中区位是影响房价的最主要因素,其次是成交时间朝向。面积成交时间、朝向和到最近地铁站的距离影响较大,所在楼层、卧室数量对于房价的影响较小,而面积和楼龄的影响最弱。     

从风险管理视角看B-S模型及其发展

金融风险是指由于金融资产价值的不利变动而使金融机构遭受损失的可能性.现实的经济和金融市场并非完美,因此,通过风险管理可以提升公司价值.论述了金融风险管理的理论和技术基础--Black-Scholes期权定价模型以及其演变发展,进一步分析了这一演进给对我国金融业发展的启示,从而对防范金融风险提出有益的建议.     

基于主成分分析的皖江城市支柱产业选择探究--以芜湖市为例

通过对国内外支柱产业选择基准的梳理,结合芜湖市区域经济发展特色,确定芜湖市支柱产业的选择方法,对芜湖市20个工业行业进行主成分分析。结果显示,芜湖市可选择交通运输设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业以及通用设备制造业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力热力的生产和供应业、非金属矿物制品业等六类行业作为备选支柱产业。同时,在第三产业中,旅游业与五大现代服务业是支柱产业培育的新亮点。     

基于政府利益行为的土地出让市场博弈分析

中央政府与部分地方行政部门在土地出让市场上存在明显的利益目标差异。通过分析双方各自的利益诉求,建立了土地出让问题上的利益博弈模型。基于博弈分析的结论,提出除了要使地方行政部门在被查处后所遭受的损失大大超过其违规得益外,还应构建更具效力的监管激励机制,才能改变目前土地市场的非正常局面。     

基于风险视角的商业银行资本结构研究

基于银行风险行为的异质性,以效用最大化为期望目标,通过推导商业银行资本约束曲线和效用曲线,建立资本－风险局部均衡模型,拓展资本监管效应理论分析框架,在资本监管强化背景下,运用该模型进一步分析商业银行的风险行为、经营行为对资本监管约束的差异性反应。建立的资本－风险均衡模型有别于前人的成果,具有较强的包容性和较高的解释能力。     

基于ARIMA与GARCH模型的国际油价预测比较分析

在分析影响油价波动因素的基础上,利用1986年1月至2010年12月的WTI国际原油价格月度数据,分别建立ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价进行预测。并通过对2011年1月至2012年4月WTI原油价格进行外推预测,检验模型的预测效果。比较分析发现,在短期预测中,ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价的预测均比较准确,但当油价由于受到重大事件的影响而有较大波动时,模型的预测精度下降;在长期预测中,GARCH模型的预测效果优于ARIMA模型;整体来看,GARCH模型预测的精度高于ARIMA模型。因此,在国际油价预测中,用GARCH模型是比较合适的。     

制度变迁中土地产权的性质与合约选择:一个有关合作经济的案例分析

This paper discusses an evolutionary process of rural collective property rights or agricultural cooperation economy in detail. We convince that both the evolution of the household contract system and the rural cooperation economy in the market elaborate the key position of property rights’ multi-attribute in the formation of contract structure and organization shape. If there were strong externality between several elements of household, the collective property rights should be chosen. __________ Translated from Guanli Shijie 管理世界 (Management World), 2008, (6): 61–67, 94     

Comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security for land use: a case study of Yanchi County, Ningxia Province

As an abstract study conception, most researches of ecological security generally are macro-scale theoretical study with a regional, national or global perspective. Micro-scale research mainly concentrates on ecological risk, ecosystem health and ecosystem safety. In order to assess regional ecological security and to accomplish the transition from micro-scale to macro-scale research, a Driving-Function-State-Output-Respond model framework （DFSOR model） is put forward in this paper according to the analyses on regional population, society, economy resources, environment and ecological risks＇. In empirical research an index system is set out to evaluate ecological security of land use. The DFSOR model comprises five group of indicators： （1） driving indicators, which include social population pressure and economic pressure; （2）function indicators, which include human function, hydrodynamic function, wind function and gravity.function; （3） state indicators, which include soil resources, water resources and land use/land cover; （4） output indicators, which include production output and ecological risk output; （5） response indicators, which are composed of all sorts of policies and measures for improving production of ecosystem. The method and procedure for ecological security evaluation is put forward based on DFSOR model as well. In the case study, Yanchi, the ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry, is chosen for the study. An index system is built to evaluate ecological security based on the evaluation of regional ecological risks which including sandification, water erosion, soil salinization, soil pollution and shortage of water. The comprehensive evaluation result shows the regional ecological security index of land use in the research area increase obviously. But it is still in the state of low-graded danger.     

长株潭新农村景观偏爱模型研究——以长沙光明村为例

通过调查光明村的村民及游客对其现有景观的评价,运用数学中多元回归法原理,建立适合于新农村景观评价的方法一景观偏爱模型。应用此模型计算出光明村村落及村野景观偏爱值核心区间,能为今后新农村建设中景观规划设计时提供参考。     

我国城市居民最低生活保障制度发展与完善研究——以长沙市为例

我国城市居民最低生活保障制度是我国实施比较成功的一项社会救助制度。目前,长沙的低保制度在制度设计和运行方面仍存在消极的救助取向、平均式的救助标准、配套政策的负激励效应以及管理监督体系不健全等一些问题。为此,有必要对其进行探索改革,通过采取积极的福利政策、制定科学的保障标准,推行分类施助和差异救助、建立健全低保制度的管理监督体系等积极措施解决其存在的问题,更好地发挥最低生活保障制度的有效功能。     

Human settlement＇s social network analysis based on spatial trend surface model：a case study of Chongqing Municipality

Integrated with GIS and remote sensing（RS） technology,a systematic analysis and its methodology for human-settlements social environment has been introduced.This methodology has been called spatial trend field model（STFM）.STFM＇s application history in the field of human-settlements social environment has been discussed at first.Then,some index data models have been created through STFM,which include population density trend field,human activity strength trend field,city-town spatial density trend field,urbanization ratio trend field,road density trend field,GDP spatial density trend field and PER-GDP spatial density trend field.With all above-mentioned indexes as input data,through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Techniques Algorithm（ISODATA）,this paper makes a verification study of Chongqing municipality.The result of the case study confirms that STFM methodology is credible and has high efficiency for regional human-settlements study.     

预测生态足迹评估可持续发展

利用经验模态分解(EMD)方法分解并提取1961～2001年中国人均生态足迹与生物承载力变化的波动周期,建立具有周期性波动的非线性动力学预测模型,预测未来20年中国人均生态足迹和承载力变化,评估中国未来可持续发展进程中面临的挑战。结果表明:(1)40年来,中国人均生态足迹在波动中不断增加,具有明显的3.5年和8年2个波动周期;中国人均生物承载力在波动中不断减少,具有明显的2.7年、28年和40年3个波动周期。(2)若一切照旧,即未来20年中国人均足迹与承载力保持过去40年的年均变化率不变,则生态足迹会持续上升,2015年将达到1.710gha/cap,2025年达到2.034gha/cap;人均生物承载力持续下降,2015年将达到0.851gha/cap、2025年降到0.806gha/cap;而人均生态赤字进一步拉大,2015年0.859gha/cap、2025年1.228gha/cap,可持续发展形势比较严峻。     

Study on environmental logistics based on sustainable development: a case study of Shandong Province

Traditional logistics takes economic interest as the final goal. The.frequency and changes of logistics activities have brought severe negative effects to the environment. At present, logistics industry, has become the dominant industry in the third industries, and it is also the main driver for economic development, As more emphasis has been attached to the philosophy of sustainable development, low carbon emission and environmental protection, environmental logistics has become the trend of logistics management. In this paper, basic theories of logistics, development economics etc. are employed, the dialectical relationship between environmental logistics and sustainable development are analyzed through statistics, and proposals are put forward to develop environmental logistics.     

Quantitative evaluation of sustainable development based on ecological footprint method: a case study of Tianjin

Since the concept of sustainable development emerged in the late 1980s, more and more countries and regions have been utilizing sustainable development as their developing strategy. But decades have passed without any effective methods available to quantitatively assess sustainable development, Since the ecological footprint evaluation method initiated in 1992, it has become popular in quantitative assessment of sustainable development because of its convenience, easy-understanding, and reliability. As one of the biggest coastal cities in north China and the economic center of the Bohai Coastal Region, Tianjin's gross domestic product (GDP) was 369.762 billion yuan in 2005, accounting for 2.0% of the whole nation's GDP The paper analyzes Tianjin's development with the ecological footprint method, and the results show that Tianjin's ecological footprint and biocapacity in 2005 were 2. 507gha/cap and 0.276gha/cap respectively. The ecological deficit was 2.230gha/cap. And from 1980 to 2005, Tianjin's ecological deficit per 104 yuan GDP decreased; while per capita ecological deficit has been tending to increase rapidly in recent years. All these results demonstrate that Tianjin is in a state of unsustainable development.     

A study of urban traffic based on the temporal maps： the case of Guangzhou City

Temporal map is an isochronal map taking time as a measuring unit. It traces out the isochrones according to the discrepancy of the time distance between the different sites from the outside of the city and the down town, It can be clear and intuitional to show the different temporal relationships between the outside of the city and the city centre with the temporal map, The problem of traffic congestion, with its potential /br urban chaos, has increased dramatically with a growing number of vehicles and the continuing aerial expansion of Guangzhou. Both transit riders and drivers find it is a great difficulty to try to acquire the necessary information from urban spatial movements. Valuable time is lost due to the absence of good transportation information. So, the paper analyzes a case in Guangzhou communication with Geographic Information System （GIS）, and uses the most popular vehicles, including buses and taxis that are used to measure the temporal distance in the city. and then proposes the design of a new map that better reflects the status of urban communication, and attempts to change the relationship between one point and another potnt of travel, reducing the amount of time allocated to such. often complex, movements, This paper also points out the obstacles associated with Guangzhou＇s existing traffic congestion, and puts forward a strategy aimed at better d .efining the need of linking the temporal map to spatial map of Guangzhou.