Risk aversion in RDEU

Various notions of risk aversion can be distinguished for the class of rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU) preferences. We discuss the relationships amongst five of these, and describe simple (testable) characterizations in terms of elementary probability transformations for all but the weakest notion. The paper also provides the first complete characterization of the RDEU orderings that are risk-averse in the sense of Jewitt [Jewitt, I., 1989. Choosing between risky prospects: the characterization of comparative static results and location independent risk. Management Science 35, 60–70]. We also extend Chew et al.’s [Chew, S.H., Karni, E., Safra, Z., 1987. Risk aversion in the theory of utility with rank-dependent probabilities. Journal of Economic Theory 42, 370–381] important characterization of strong risk aversion [Rothschild, M., Stiglitz, J.E., 1970. Increasing risk: I. A definition. Journal of Economic Theory 2, 225–243] by relaxing strict monotonicity and differentiability assumptions, and allowing for discontinuities in the probability transformation function. The important special case of maximin choice falls within this relaxed RDEU class. It is shown that any strongly risk-averse RDEU order is a convex combination of maximin and another RDEU order with concave utility and continuous, concave probability transformation. Our proof of the result on strong risk aversion is also simpler (as well as more general) than that of Chew et al. [Chew, S.H., Karni, E., Safra, Z., 1987. Risk aversion in the theory of utility with rank-dependent probabilities. Journal of Economic Theory 42, 370–381].     

Optimal consumption and investment under time-varying relative risk aversion

We consider the continuous time consumption-investment problem originally formalized and solved by Merton in case of constant relative risk aversion. We present a complete solution for the case where relative risk aversion with respect to consumption varies with time, having in mind an investor with age-dependent risk aversion. This provides a new motivation for life-cycle investment rules. We study the optimal consumption and investment rules, in particular in the case where the relative risk aversion with respect to consumption is increasing with age.     

项目招标中的风险规避

项目招标过程中,内外因素的变化可能导致项目变得复杂,又由于人的条件和控制能力有限,使项目招标更具风险。文章通过对项目招标风险的分析,结合项目招标的意义,找出问题,提出规避或减少项目招标风险的对策。     

Risk aversion in the small and Jensen inequalities

This paper investigates further the connection between the concept of risk-aversion and the property of concavity of the utility function of the agent. Improved specifications of the Jensen inequality are used for stating a number of local properties of certainty equivalents under milder regularity assumptions on the utility function than those made in literature. The paper concludes by illustrating a few applications of this theory.

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Riassunto Si approfondisce lo studio del legame tra il concetto di avversione al rischio e quello di concavità della funzione di utilità dell'agente. Nel lavoro vengono utilizzate estesamente versioni migliorate della disuguaglianza di Jensen che consentono di fornire alcuni risultati locali sotto ipotesi deboli di regolarità sulla funzione di utilità. Il lavoro termina fornendo alcune applicazioni di questa analisi nell'ambito della teoria delle scelte in ambito rischioso.

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This research was partially supported by M.U.R.S.T. Dinamiche Non-Lineari e Applicazioni alle Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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Although the paper is co-authoured, we specify that Sections 3 and 4 are to be attributed to Luigi Montrucchio, while Sections 1, 2 and 5 to Luisa Tibiletti.     

Risk aversion for variational and multiple-prior preferences

The objective of this paper is to identify variational preferences and multiple-prior (maxmin) expected utility functions that exhibit aversion to risk under some probability measure from among the priors. Risk aversion has profound implications on agents’ choices and on market prices and allocations. Our approach to risk aversion relies on the theory of mean-independent risk of Werner (2009). We identify necessary and sufficient conditions for risk aversion of convex variational preferences and concave multiple-prior expected utilities. The conditions are stability of the cost function and of the set of probability priors, respectively, with respect to a probability measure. The two stability properties are new concepts. We show that cost functions defined by the relative entropy distance or other divergence distances have that property. Set of priors defined as cores of convex distortions of probability measures or neighborhoods in divergence distances have that property, too.     

The who,why and where of Japanese manufacturing investment in the UK

This paper analyses the recent growth of Japanese manufacturing investment in the UK, focusing upon the type of companies that are being created.     

国际分工格局下的中国制造业与外资引入

文章首先概述了中国制造业的发展特征,在中国制造业日益纳入国际分工的格局下,对制造业的比较优势进行了实证分析,在此基础上明确分析了中国制造业"世界制造中心"的定位和国际竞争力,最后阐述了制造业在对外开放中外资引入的选择性吸收策略。     

Risk aversion and risk vulnerability in the continuous and discrete case

This paper discusses utility functions for money, where allowable money values are from an arbitrary nonempty closed subset of the real numbers. Thus, the classical case, where this subset is a closed interval (bounded or not) of the real line, is included in the study. The discrete case, where this subset is the set of all integer numbers, is also included. In a sense, the discrete case (which has not been addressed in the literature thus far) is more suitable for real-world applications than the continuous case. In this general setting, the concepts of risk aversion and risk premium are defined, an analogue of Pratt’s fundamental theorem is proved, and temperance, prudence, and risk vulnerability are examined.     

Risk aversion and business cycles: An empirical analysis

Unlike investors, who tend to maintain highly-diversified portfolios, private entrepreneurs usually lack access to complete risk-pooling for idiosyncratic risks, thus more directly internalize the cost of volatility. Risk aversion, however, modifies the optimal contract between entrepreneurs and lenders by incorporating the risk premium that entrepreneurs demand for the uninsurable risk: the private equity premium. Consequently, real shocks tend to be amplified as changes in entrepreneurs’ net worth affect the private equity premium and so the rental rate of capital, investment and output. This theoretical framework suggests that economies where the private entrepreneurial sector is a relatively larger, and therefore more vulnerable to uninsurable risk, all else equal, should present higher volatility. I test this prediction by (1) conducting a simple reduced-form analysis that shows that output volatility is negatively associated with the relative importance of the corporate vs. the privately-held sector; and (2) estimating the model's structural parameters. Intuitively, countries where private entrepreneurs are predominant and so risk aversion is likely to impose stronger impacts, positive risk aversion coefficients should be found. Results suggest that risk aversion is empirically more relevant for economies like Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Korea, Mexico and Thailand than for Canada, France, Germany, the U.K. and the U.S.     

Risk aversion and asymmetry in procurement auctions: Identification,estimation and application to construction procurements

This article studies a model of asymmetric risk averse bidding within the independent private value paradigm. The inherent asymmetry in cost and risk aversion imposes an original restriction on the observed bid data, an exact equality which leads to the model semiparametric identification and estimation. The unobserved arguments of this equality need to be simulated in order to estimate the bidders’ Constant Relative Risk Aversion or Constant Absolute Risk Aversion parameters and their heterogeneous cost distributions. In the Los Angeles City Hall construction contracts offered between 1994 and 2003, the model and methodology help reveal that financial asymmetries affect the firms’ cost distribution, while experience influences their degree of risk aversion.     

Idiosyncratic risk,market risk and correlation dynamics in the US real estate investment trusts

This study examines total, market and idiosyncratic risk and correlation dynamics using weekly return data on two US REIT firm samples from 1988 to 2008. We find that both market and idiosyncratic variance are time-varying and that idiosyncratic variance represents a dominant component of a REIT firm’s total variance. We find a decline in idiosyncratic risk as well as a rise in average REIT correlation during the new REIT era, from 1993 to 2008. This recent downward trend of idiosyncratic risk among REITs is different to the stylized upward trend of idiosyncratic risk among stocks. There is bi-lateral Granger causality between the market and idiosyncratic risks. Finally, we detect a positive relationship between the idiosyncratic risk and expected returns, implying that the risk premium of REITs is positively related to the idiosyncratic risk during the period new REIT era, 1993–2008. Our results have important asset-pricing implications for under-diversified investors.     

风险投资与中小型高新技术企业发展

文章认为风险资本已成为高新技术产业发展的“催化剂”,我国中小型高新技术企业发展滞后,与缺乏充足的资金投入有很大的关系,要破除阻碍中小型高新技术企业发展的“瓶颈”,有必要进一步完善风险投资机制。     

Lattices of capacities,and related topologies1

Capacities are defined as set functions with regularity properties in terms of two general families K and G of ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ sets (K = compact sets, G= open sets in the standard case). The space C of all such capacities is a complete lattice with respect to its natural partial order. The lattice structure of C is studied in combination with the natural topology of C. Also some subspaces are investigated.     

Risk aversion and the elasticity of substitution in general dynamic portfolio theory: Consistent planning by forward looking, expected utility maximizing investors

Using the measure of risk aversion suggested by Kihlstrom and Mirman [Kihlstrom, R., Mirman, L., 1974. Risk aversion with many commodities. Journal of Economic Theory 8, 361–388; Kihlstrom, R., Mirman, L., 1981. Constant, increasing and decreasing risk aversion with many commodities. Review of Economic Studies 48, 271–280], we propose a dynamic consumption-savings–portfolio choice model in which the consumer-investor maximizes the expected value of a non-additively separable utility function of current and future consumption. Preferences for consumption streams are CES and the elasticity of substitution can be chosen independently of the risk aversion measure. The additively separable case is a special case. Because choices are not dynamically consistent, we follow the “consistent planning” approach of Strotz [Strotz, R., 1956. Myopia and inconsistency in dynamic utility maximization. Review of Economic Studies 23, 165–180] and also interpret our analysis from the game theoretic perspective taken by Peleg and Yaari [Peleg, B., Yaari, M., 1973. On the existence of a consistent course of action when tastes are changing. Review of Economic Studies 40, 391–401]. The equilibrium of the Lucas asset pricing model with i.i.d. consumption growth is obtained and the equity premium is shown to depend on the elasticity of substitution as well as the risk aversion measure. The nature of the dependence is examined. Our results are contrasted with those of the non-expected utility recursive approach of Epstein–Zin and Weil.     

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act and CEO tenure,turnover, and risk aversion

Using a sample of CEO turnover from 1999 to 2005, we find that CEOs become significantly more risk averse following the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, SOX. Their increased risk aversion may serve as an explanation for why CEO tenure is not significantly shortened and forced CEO turnover is not more likely post-SOX, as we document in this paper. In addition, we provide evidence that financial restatements have some effects on CEO tenure and the probability of forced CEO turnover. This may be due to intensified monitoring activities by the board and the financial press in the post-SOX era, but we cannot contribute all of it to SOX. In some occasions, SOX seems to weaken the effect of board monitoring on CEO tenure and the effect of firm performance on CEO risk aversion. Though the increased monitoring level post-SOX contribute to the increased CEO risk aversion, little impact is found from the SOX-mandated accuracy and transparency of financial reporting.     

Firm risk,investment, and employment growth

This paper examines the relation between firm risk and growth of Finnish firms. The results reveal a negative relation between risk (total and unsystematic risk) and firm investment. This negative relation is robust to the choice of estimation method. The results also suggest that labor-intensive firms respond to increased risk by substituting capital for labor. Discrete decision models reassure the main conclusions by showing that greater risk decreases (increases) the likelihood of simultaneous growth (decline) investment and employment.     

Probabilistic sophistication,second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion

We study the interplay of probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion, three fundamental notions in choice under uncertainty. In particular, our main result, Theorem 2, characterizes uncertainty averse preferences that are probabilistically sophisticated, as well as uncertainty averse preferences that satisfy second order stochastic dominance. As a byproduct, Proposition 2 highlights a fundamental tension between probabilistic sophistication/second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion in the presence of nontrivial unambiguous events.     

Incomplete markets, ambiguity, and irreversible investment

The problem of irreversible investment with idiosyncratic risk is studied by interpreting market incompleteness as a source of ambiguity over the appropriate no-arbitrage discount factor. The maxmin utility over multiple priors framework is used to model and solve the irreversible investment problem. Multiple priors are modeled using the notion of κ‐ignorance. This set-up is used to analyze finitely lived options. For infinitely lived options the notion of constant κ‐ignorance is introduced. For these sets of density generators the corresponding optimal stopping problem is solved for general (in-)finite horizon optimal stopping problems driven by geometric Brownian motion. It is argued that an increase in the set of priors delays investment, whereas an increase in the degree of market completeness can have a non-monotonic effect on investment.