共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
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中国利率政策的行为表明,钉住汇率下的独立性是以利率政策的有效性损失为代价。处于对内通货膨胀高涨与对外巨额顺差并存的经济状态下,以单一利率政策应对开放经济的内外平衡目标,显然力不从心。在中国经济日益开放的当今,宏观经济调控需要新的政策工具,或是对既有政策工具赋予新的运用方法。 相似文献
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Barry Eichengreen 《Economic journal (London, England)》1999,109(454):1-14
Why do governments find it so difficult to move from pegged exchange rates to greater exchange rate flexibility? I first establish that there is a problem to be solved: that there are powerful incentives for greater flexibility deriving from changes in the international economic and financial environment but that policymakers find it difficult to engineer a smooth transition. I offer practical suggestions and a framework under which the probability of a smooth transition can be maximised. Drawing examples from recent economic history, I then attempt to understand the experience of selected countries which have undertaken this transition. 相似文献
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WARREN J. TEASE 《The Economic record》1988,64(1):2-13
This paper considers whether the speculative efficiency hypothesis holds in the foreign exchange market since the floating of the Australian dollar in December 1983. For the post-float period as a whole, the speculative efficiency hypothesis can be rejected in the 30-day market but not in the 15-day or 90-day markets. Evidence of a structural change in the market in February 1985—the time of the first major depreciation - was also found. 相似文献
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Meixing Dai 《International economic journal》2013,27(4):567-585
This article investigates the dynamic implications of Krugman's (1999) model of financial crises with balance-sheet effects, which has a considerable impact on the literature of international financial crisis. Considering explicitly the wealth-accumulation constraint and the external equilibrium condition, I describe an emerging-market financial crisis as a jump from an unstable dynamic trajectory to a stable one, instead of a jump from a ‘good’ to a ‘bad’ equilibrium with zero investment and zero foreign debt. By discriminating the financial crises according to the severity of the negative impacts of some internal and external factors, this article also adds some insights into the anti-crisis policy. 相似文献
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This paper proposes a two‐country general‐equilibrium model incorporating a tradable sector with pricing‐to‐market as well as a nontradable sector. In that case, real exchange rate fluctuations arise from two sources: changes in the relative price of traded goods, that exemplify deviations from the law of one price, and movements in the relative price of traded to nontraded goods across countries. Our framework sheds light on the propagation mechanisms through which monetary shocks affect the real exchange rate. More specifically, the two components respond in opposite directions to monetary disturbances, which is consistent with data. Besides, the introduction of nontraded goods does not alter the predictive power of monetary shocks because the presence of nontraded goods magnifies the response of the deviation from the law of one price. 相似文献
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This article examines issues of relevance to Australia's external imbalance. We investigate the sharp fiscal consolidation over the past five years and examine why it did not reduce the current account deficit. We show that a disproportionate part of the fiscal consolidation was achieved by cutting public investment spending, and we discuss some of the negative consequences of such cuts. We compare the macroeconomic behaviour of six OECD countries which have recently increased net government savings. It has been a common experience that an increase in net government saving has not been associated with a reduction in the current account deficit. For Australia, we establish that the link between fiscal consolidation and a smaller current account deficit was severed by a private sector investment surge. This leads us to examine the behaviour of the relative price critical to the allocation of this investment between the traded and non-traded sectors - the real exchange rate. Over the medium term, we argue that a substantial real depreciation is necessary as part of the adjustment required to stabilise the ratio of net external liabilities to GDP. 相似文献
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Mohammed B. Yusoff 《International Review of Applied Economics》2007,21(5):655-667
The cointegration technique is used to examine the long‐run and short‐run relationships between the real Malaysian trade balance with the real exchange rate, domestic and world incomes. The results suggest that a real ringgit exchange rate depreciation improves the trade balance in the long run. World and domestic incomes are also found to be important determinants of trade balance. The significance of world income on trade balance indicates that Malaysia is prone to external shocks. An error‐correction model is then estimated to study the short‐run dynamics of the effects of exchange rate. The impulse response analysis shows that the effect of exchange rate on the trade balance lasts for about three years. A devaluation of ringgit will initially improve the trade balance, albeit small, after which the trade balance starts to deteriorate, and then improves again suggesting that there exists a delayed J‐curve. 相似文献
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David Rapach 《Review of International Economics》2001,9(2):356-371
Long-run monetary neutrality specifies that nominal disturbances do not affect long-run real exchange rates. However, the "over depreciation" of the US dollar in the late 1980s, after its strong appreciation earlier in the decade, suggested to a number of observers that nominal disturbances alter long-run real exchange rates; that is, money supply shocks entail real exchange rate hysteresis. Using data from the G-7 countries and the post-1973 float, the paper measures the long-run effects of relative money supply disturbances on real US dollar exchange rates. Little evidence of hysteretic monetary policy effects is found. 相似文献
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Zhenhui Xu 《Review of Development Economics》2008,12(4):714-727
This paper investigates the claim that China's exchange rate policy causes the US trade deficit with China to grow. Although there is no evidence that changes in the exchange rate cause the trade deficit to rise in the short run, a statistically significant long‐run relationship between the RMB/dollar exchange rate and the US trade deficit with China is detected. As the value of the dollar declines (or RMB appreciates), ceteris paribus, so does the trade deficit. Hence, there is a need for China to adjust its exchange rate policy to help reduce the ever mounting US trade deficit. 相似文献
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齐海燕 《新疆财经学院学报》2004,(2):75-77
人民币的短期升值与中长期贬值的压力并存,构成了目前人民币汇率升值不妥,贬值亦不妥的困境。解决人民币汇率困境不能仅局限于汇率水平或汇率形成机制的研究,关键还在于内部经济结构的调整和对外经济政策的改革。 相似文献
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汇率传递、宏观经济冲击对我国物价水平影响的实证分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
从实证的角度研究中国的汇率传递及宏观经济冲击和货币政策冲击相关因素对物价水平的影响.结合中国实际情况,在原有研究的基础上改进了一个包括所有这些相关变量的VAR模型.通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法,我们发现,供给和需求冲击是物价水平波动的最主要原因,汇率和货币政策冲击在物价波动过程的作用并不明显,这与已有的研究结果有很大的不同,这表明仅仅依靠货币政策并不能降低当前的高物价水平. 相似文献
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汇率制度、金融加速器和经济波动 总被引:16,自引:1,他引:15
本文建立一个小型开放经济模型,目的之一是探究中国开放经济中金融加速器的存在性;二是针对中国1997—2008年间宏观经济波动特征分析不同汇率制度下金融加速器效应的差异,以验证相对浮动汇率来说,固定汇率是否会加大经济波动。通过使用中国数据和ML方法估计含和不含金融加速器的DSGE模型发现,似然率检验接受前者而拒绝后者。模拟结果显示含金融加速器模型模拟数据与实际数据特征更接近,再次验证了开放经济中金融加速器的存在。固定汇率下金融加速器效应强于浮动汇率,部分解释了1997—2008年间中国经济在不同汇率制度下宏观变量波动的差异。金融加速器主要传播和放大投资效率和货币政策冲击对经济的影响,对货币需求和国外冲击也有一定的放大作用,但对技术和偏好冲击的放大作用不明显。 相似文献
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Rashmi Shankar 《Review of International Economics》2007,15(4):720-734
This paper addresses two questions: are currency crises predicted by increases in a central bank’s external and contingent liabilities relative to assets, and do these “balance sheet effects” generate persistent output losses following a crisis? I find empirical evidence that the answer to both questions is yes. I use data on stocks of gross external assets and liabilities for 167 countries over 1973–2003, in an unbalanced panel probit regression to obtain robust estimates of the probability and determinants of a post‐crisis recession. Several single and simultaneous equation specifications support the idea that the output cost of a currency crisis depends on its transmission mechanism. Specifically, a recession is likely to be severe if it is preceded by a crisis that works its way through the financial sector. In addition, the results show that measures of contingent liabilities, capital flight, and lack of financial depth are significant predictors of costly crises. 相似文献
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Yanliang Zhang 《中国经济评论(英文版)》2005,4(6):34-36
The Chinese currency, the yuan, which was pegged to the value of US dollar in the past, will now be a managed currency. Its value will be set in relation to a basket of currencies. China is taking the first big step toward a free-floating currency. This analysis explores the impacts on Chinese banking, Chinese companies and international monetary market. 相似文献