折现率与ERP——《折现率中股权风险溢价的确定》一文点评

一．关于文章主题 折现率中股权风险溢价是一个值得研究的课题。折现率总是评估师一道难过的坎,资本成本的理论研究是一个黑洞。采用投入产出模型确定股权风险溢价是一个创新的思路。如果社会发展的主题是创新,那么评估行业也需要创新,评估的理论研究也需要创新。     

收益法中折现率的确定

在收益法评估中,折现率的确定会对评估结果产生较大影响。折现率确定的主要方法加和法、资本资产定价模型和加权平均资本成本模型。三种方法有各自的适用范围。     

对于收益法评估企业价值中折现率的参数市场风险溢价RPm的探讨

目前收益法在国内企业价值评估中的应用已经非常普遍,而收益法评估中的一个关键要素是折现率,目前折现率的量化测算通常采用调整的资本资产定价模型（CAPM）,其中的关键参数是市场风险溢价（risk premium,简称RPm）,笔者根据多年的国内评估实践经验并结合其它国际咨询公司的评估模型,对目前国内市场风险溢价（RPm）测定的可行方式进行了初步的探讨。     

A股市场股权风险溢价的历史及启示

本文计算了1992～2000年、2001～2005年以及1992～2005年三个时间窗口下A股市场的股权风险溢价率；基于历史数据，就投资者所要求的股权风险溢价、通货膨胀与股权风险溢价的关系等问题进行了初步分析；相关分析也隐含了A股市场发展的政策建议。     

浅论收益法中折现率的确定

在收益法评估的过程中,资产折现率的确定会对评估结果产生较大影响.在国外普遍地采用资本资产定价模型.在我国,因为各种原因,目前应用CAPM模型的条件尚未成熟.笔者以为可采用加权平均资金成本或风险利率分析法,并在考虑资金利润率的基础上加以确定.     

资产溢价、流通性溢价及全流通改革

在社会各方的推动下，股权全流通改革进入了临门一脚的方案阶段。但理论界、业界和政府部门的各类观点和思路纷繁复杂，令人难以取舍。这个改革究竟难在何处呢?笔者认为，其主要根源在于人们先是陷入了资产溢价的误区，而后又混淆了资产溢价及流通性溢价这两类不同性质的溢价。     

中国股市股权溢价的实证研究

在经济理论中,股权溢价是有一定的合理范围的,当实际溢价超过理论最大值时,就会产生无法解释的谜.本文运用中国股市的实际收益率数据,使用广义矩法(GMM),来估计相对风险厌恶系数和时间偏好系数,看是否在理论允许的合理范围之内.并利用中国股市1991-2007年的完整样本与样本分割相结合,对比不同时间段的股权溢价状况和估计的参数进行实证研究.结果表明,中国的股权溢价仍然在合理范围之内,但是各样本期变动很大.     

风险报酬与风险投资决策中折现率的确定

本文将有风险的投资项目的收益率看成由无风险利率和风险报酬率两部分组成,首先描述了项目未来现金流的不确定性,接着从资金时间价值角度给出项目收益率的定义。由于考虑了资金的时间价值,所以折现率被引入到标准离差率中,成为表示项目风险的一个参数。基于传统风险调整方法的思路,我们建立了含有风险报酬率的项目收益率经验方程,从而找到适合该项目的折现率,并利用该折现率模拟计算项目的净现值。     

对基于价值无差异的资产定价模型的实证检验——兼解释股权高溢价之谜

陈小悦和孙力强（2007）在价值无差异的基础上建立了一套全新的定价模型,本文采用股票市场的数据对该模型进行了实证检验,模型检验的同时也是对股权溢价之谜进行解释。研究结果表明,本文的定价模型在美国、中国内地和中国香港三个市场的检验都取得了良好的效果,即市场风险溢价均值都向模型的理论值收敛,实际风险溢价与理论值差异很小且不显著,采用该模型可以准确地描述股票市场组合收益率与风险的关系,并对股权溢价之谜做出合理的解释。     

股市系统流动性风险溢价与资产定价——基于沪深股市的动态实证研究

流动性与资产定价是当前金融领域研究的热点之一,研究流动性与资产定价以及流动性风险与资产定价的关系是当前国内研究资产定价的主要内容。本文将通过沪深股市的实证数据研究中国股票市场系统流动性风险溢价的问题。针对流动性溢价问题,本文将基于沪深股市数据,结合我国证券市场特征,按照Gibson和Mougeot的基本框架,直接建立二元均值GARCH——Diagonal BEKK模型,对我国股票市场的系统流动性风险溢价动态进行实证研究。通过研究,本文得出结论:中国股票市场存在系统流动性风险溢价,但随着样本期的选取、样本的选取以及不同流动性指标的选取的不同,其显著性是也不同的,系统流动性风险溢价对对市场的超额收益是有影响的,而且这种影响是动态波动的,从长期看,这种波动持续性的存在会使投资者未来投资的不确定性增加。     

Equity Risk Premium

Abstract

The equity risk premium (ERP) is an essential building block of the market value of risk. In theory, the collective action of all investors results in an equilibrium expectation for the return on the market portfolio excess of the risk-free return, the ERP. The ability of the valuation actuary to choose a sensible value for the ERP, whether as a required input to capital asset pricing model valuation, or any of its descendants, is as important as choosing risk-free rates and risk relatives (betas) to the ERP for the asset at hand.

The historical realized ERP for the stock market appears to be at odds with pricing theory parameters for risk aversion. Since 1985, there has been a constant stream of research, each of which reviews theories of estimating market returns, examines historical data periods, or both. Those ERP value estimates vary widely from about ?1% to about 9%, based on a geometric or arithmetic averaging, short or long horizons, short- or long-run expectations, unconditional or conditional distributions, domestic or international data, data periods, and real or nominal returns.

This paper examines the principal strains of the recent research on the ERP and catalogues the empirical values of the ERP implied by that research. In addition, the paper supplies several time series analyses of the standard Ibbotson Associates 1926–2002 ERP data using short Treasuries for the risk-free rate. Recommendations for ERP values to use in common actuarial valuation problems also are offered.     

Mean-Reversion in REITs Discount to NAV &; Risk Premium

REITs discount to NAV is a puzzling regularity. The sharp increase in volatility of REITs prices over the past few years has spurred a relatively new concern amongst academics, managers and investors about the consequences of, and causes of, property risk premium on discount to NAV. The two interrelated questions arising from the recent increase in volatility of REITs prices are: Is the increased volatility responsible for the observed widening in discount to NAV? What does the observed private and public risk premium tell us about discount to NAV? We attempt to address these questions by analysing risk premiums in private and public real estate markets. The analysis is conducted in the most recent years of high stock price volatility. Our analysis reveals two major results: a tendency for discount to NAV to revert to the long term mean value of 20% and, more significantly, a lower risk premium in equivalent yields in private market than in public market. These results suggest that investors in public market have a different conception of property risk and complexity of lease options than what is conveyed by private property valuation.     

Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Accounting Fundamentals

This study uses recent developments in the theoretical modelling of the links between unrecorded accounting goodwill, accounting profitability and the cost of equity, together with Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) betas, to estimate the ex-ante equity risk premium in the UK. The results suggest that, over our sample period from 1968 to 1995, the premium has been in the region of 5%. Our estimate lends support to the view that the ex-ante equity risk premium is substantially less than the historical average of the excess of equity returns over the risk-free rate, and is similar to the rates applied recently by UK competition regulators.     

The Equity Premium

We estimate the equity premium using dividend and earnings growth rates to measure the expected rate of capital gain. Our estimates for 1951 to 2000, 2.55 percent and 4.32 percent, are much lower than the equity premium produced by the average stock return, 7.43 percent. Our evidence suggests that the high average return for 1951 to 2000 is due to a decline in discount rates that produces a large unexpected capital gain. Our main conclusion is that the average stock return of the last half-century is a lot higher than expected.     

The Equity Market Risk Premium and the Valuation of Overseas Investments

There is little agreement among academics or practitioners about how to measure the size of the equity market risk premium, particularly when it relates to investments in emerging markets. Using monthly equity returns for 22 developed and 24 emerging markets covering the period 1976–2006, the authors find that developed capital markets have experienced significant increases in their degree of integration with the U.S. and world market indexes, while emerging markets remain at least partly segmented from those of the U.S. and the world. For countries that are reasonably well integrated into global capital markets, the authors suggest using the U.S.—based equity market risk premium. But when valuing investments in emerging markets, they recommend use of the Capital Asset Pricing Model adjusted for political risk and a measure of co‐movement between the foreign and U.S. stock markets. The authors also remind readers that the equity market risk premium is supposed to be a forward‐looking measure, and that the common practice of inferring the future from the past can be misleading, particularly in the case of rapidly developing emerging markets.     

股权价值评估中流动性缺乏折扣的期权模型方法

对于流动性受到限制的股权,如何通过适当的模型技术,较为客观地估计其公允价值,是我国当前评估实务中的一大难点。本文针对股权的流动性缺乏折扣,总结近年来在国际评估界被普遍认可的三种期权估值模型,并基于影响期权价值的因素,对不同模型的计算结果进行比较分析。在此基础上,本文提出在实务工作中运用期权模型时,要特别注意保持估值模型与评估目标的内涵一致性。     

The Effect of Temporal Risk Aversion on Optimal Consumption,the Equity Premium,and the Equilibrium Interest Rate

This paper demonstrates that temporal risk aversion makes smoothing consumption over time less attractive, while the usual risk aversion makes it more attractive. As temporal risk aversion increases, the equilibrium interest rate decreases and the equity premium increases. This paper also shows a striking and novel result that an increase in time impatience can lead to either a decrease or an increase in the interest rate, depending on the nature of the nonseparability.     

A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium

This paper presents a model that reproduces the uncovered interest rate parity puzzle. Investors have preferences with external habits. Countercyclical risk premia and procyclical real interest rates arise endogenously. During bad times at home, when domestic consumption is close to the habit level, the representative investor is very risk averse. When the domestic investor is more risk averse than her foreign counterpart, the exchange rate is closely tied to domestic consumption growth shocks. The domestic investor therefore expects a positive currency excess return. Because interest rates are low in bad times, expected currency excess returns increase with interest rate differentials.