Optimal Monetary Policy with Price and Wage Rigidities

In this paper, I search for an optimal configuration of parameters for variants of the Taylor rule by using an accurate second‐order welfare‐based method within a fully microfounded dynamic stochastic model, with price and wage rigidities, without capital accumulation. A version of the model with distortionary taxation is also explicitly tested. The model is solved up to second‐order solution. Optimal rules are obtained by maximizing a conditional welfare measure, differently from what has been done in the current literature. Optimal monetary policy functions turn out to be characterized by inflation targeting parameter lower than in empirical studies. In general, the optimal values for monetary policy parameters depend on the degree of nominal rigidities and on the role of fiscal policy. When nominal rigidities are higher, optimal monetary policy becomes more aggressive to inflation. With a tighter fiscal policy, optimal monetary policy turns out to be less aggressive to inflation. Impulse‐response functions based on second‐order model solution show a non‐affine pattern when the economy is hit by shocks of different magnitude .     

Does the monetary policy committee still care about inflation? Some evidence from a small macroeconomic model

This article derives an optimal Taylor rule for the UK economy using a simple estimated model based on data prior to the financial crisis of 2008. Optimal policy rules are calculated using simulation of the model over a long time period coupled with a search for optimal Taylor rule parameters using the Newton-Raphson loss minimization algorithm. The weights in the pre-crisis loss function are then inferred from the Taylor rule parameters estimated from the period corresponding to Bank of England independence, i.e. 1997–2008. These estimates are consistent with a low weight on inflation relative to output stabilization even before the crisis. The model is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that there has been no change in Bank of England preferences and that the Bank has responded to the crisis in a way which would have been predicted on the basis of its pre-crisis behaviour.     

Optimal assignment of durable objects to successive agents

This paper analyzes the assignment of durable objects to successive generations of agents who live for two periods. The optimal assignment rule is stationary, favors old agents and is determined by a selectivity function, which satisfies an iterative functional differential equation. More patient social planners are more selective, as are social planners facing distributions of types with higher probabilities for higher types. The paper also characterizes optimal assignment rules when monetary transfers are allowed and agents face a recovery cost, when multiple agents enter society, and when agents can invest to improve their types.     

Optimal money supply rules under asymmetric objective criteria

This paper examines the derivation and properties of optimal money supply rules when such rules are chosen to minimize a loss function with asymmetric properties. Optimal money supply rules derived under symmetric and asymmetric objective criteria are compared under alternative expectations scenarios. When shocks have no impact on variables in the loss function, the optimal rule under a symmetric objective criterion is then also optimal under an asymmetric objective criterion. When shocks have some impact on variables in the loss function, the optimal policy rule will be different under the alternative criteria.Earlier versions of this paper were presented to the Seventh Analytic Economics Workshop, Australian National University, to the Australasian Meetings of the Econometrics Society, University of New England, and to seminars at the University of Waikato, the University of Canterbury at Christchurch, and the University of Guelph. The author is grateful to participants in those sessions for helpful comments. Particular thanks go to Louis Christofides, John Fender, Rod Maddock, Adrian Pagan, John Pitchford, and Larry Taylor for helpful discussions. The author is also grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees of this Journal for their constructive comments and criticisms. Of course, any remaining errors are the sole responsibility of the author.     

State-dependent pricing, inflation, and welfare in search economies

We investigate the welfare effects of inflation in economies with search frictions and menu costs. We first analyze an economy where there is no transaction demand for money balances: Money is a mere unit of account. We determine a condition under which strictly positive inflation is desirable. We relate this condition to a standard efficiency condition for search economies. Second, we consider a related economy in which there is a transaction role for money. In the absence of menu costs, the Friedman rule is optimal. In the presence of menu costs, the optimal inflation rate is negative for our numerical examples provided menu costs are small. A deviation from the Friedman rule can be optimal depending on the extent of the search externalities.     

Landfill Construction and Capacity Expansion

We study the optimal capacity and lifetime of landfills taking into account their sequential nature. Such an optimal capacity is characterized by the so-called Optimal Capacity Condition. Particular versions of this condition are obtained for two alternative settings: first, if all the landfills are to have the same capacity, and second, if each of them is allowed to have a different capacity. In the second case we obtain an optimal control problem, with mixed elements of both continuous and discrete time. The resulting optimization problems involve dividing a time horizon of planning into several subintervals of endogenously decided length. The results obtained may be useful to address other economic problems such as private and public investments, consumption decisions on durable goods, etc.     

Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments under velocity and fiscal shocks

This paper, in the spirit of Poole [Poole, William, 1970. The Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Macro Model. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84, 192–216.], studies how differently monetary and fiscal shocks influence the appropriate choice of the monetary policy regime. Velocity shocks are introduced by embedding a stochastic cash-in-advance constraint within the New Keynesian framework. In addition to optimal policy under discretion, three classic rules, interest rate targeting, monetary targeting, and the Taylor rule are ranked under both fiscal and velocity shocks. The non-stationarity of prices under the Taylor rule makes it inferior to the other rules under which prices are stationary. Monetary targeting, by stabilizing aggregate demand under fiscal shocks, outperforms interest rate targeting, while the latter provides a better insulation against velocity shocks. Monetary targeting (under fiscal shocks) and interest rate targeting (under velocity shocks) even outperform the optimal policy under discretion for sufficiently high intertemporal elasticities of consumption substitution.     

Pulse Fishing and Stock Uncertainty

Large variation in stock dynamics affects the accuracy of stock estimates, which fisheries managers rely on when determining quotas and other regulations. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the implications of uncertainty on pulse fishing. We show that as the variance of the random natural fluctuations increases, the optimal pulse length decreases and converge toward a constant-escapement policy. Hence, in fisheries with large natural variability, a constant-escapement policy is a good approximation of the optimal policy.     

Optimal taxation and public production in an open dual economy

This paper analyses the determinants of optimal tax policy, trade policy and shadow prices for cost-benefit analysis in a dual economy. It breaks new ground by combining in one model the tax and public investment policies considered in the public economics literature with the notion of labor market imperfection central to contributions on the dual economy.Optimal policies are first derived analytically, providing rules for organizing production, setting taxes and off-setting labor market distortions. Production efficiency is shown to obtain for the taxable part of the economy, a generalized Ramsey rule derived for producing-cumconsuming households in the directly non-taxable sector of the economy and new characterizations of optimal rural-urban migration established in the presence of distortionary taxation. A simple general equilibrium model is then numerically implemented on data for a particular developing country. The optimal policies analytically derived before are computed in the model under alternative assumptions about government revenue requirements, the degree to which different sectors of the economy are directly taxable, the nature of property rights and technological substitution possibilities. The results of these computations provide further insight into the theoretical results as well as clarifying their quantitative significance.     

Monetary Policy with Parameter Uncertainty in Small-Open Economy

This paper computes optimal robust monetary policy in a new Keynesian small-open economy model with Knightian uncertainty about the degree of price stickiness and the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Due to the simple model structure used in the paper, I can derive analytical results for the min–max solution under discretion and assess how a robust optimal Taylor rule must be set in small-open economy. I find that, in an optimal robust discretionary equilibrium, the central bank should assume that the degree of price stickiness and the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods take on their highest numerical values. In terms of interest rate setting, if the optimal discretionary robust equilibrium is implemented with a Taylor rule, the policy rate should react to inflation in a less aggressive way than in the case of complete information.     

Ordering the extraction of renewable resources: The case of multiple aquifers

Optimal sequencing of resource extraction is typically studied for nonrenewable resources. We provide conditions for optimal use of multiple sources of a renewable resource and characterize the resulting extraction sequence, resource scarcity values, and (single) efficiency price path for two groundwater aquifers and an abundant alternative resource. Even with one demand, the optimal sequence depends on the differential opportunity costs of the two renewables. A numerical simulation for the South O‘ahu aquifer system, which also allows for different distribution costs, illustrates the case of using the “leakier” aquifer first and then switching to simultaneous use of both resources. The welfare gain from specialization relative to independent management is $4.7 billion.     

Implicit Valuation of Non-Market Benefits in Even-Aged Forest Management

Choosing the optimal harvesting time in multiple-use, even-aged forest management is an important but difficult problem. The usual formulation of the problem requires explicit knowledge of the value of the timber, plus the value of the other, non-timber and mainly non-market values. The latter are notoriously difficult to measure. This paper develops a harvesting rule that depends only implicitly on the flow of non-market values. The rule, dubbed the implicit value formula, gives the minimum stream of non-market values that would induce a landowner to adopt a given rotation length. Since harvesting decisions must be made with or without information on non-market values, the implicit value formula can provide guidance to forest managers by putting a lower bound on the non-market values for every rotation length. As a demonstration, implicit non-market values are calculated for Douglas fir. The implicit value formula indicates that preserving a forest of Douglas fir beyond the optimal rotation is much more expensive than harvesting it an equivalent length of time before the optimal rotation.     

不完全竞争、非对称信息下的最优进口贸易政策和产业政策

本文讨论了不完全竞争和非对称信息情况下 ,如何运用进口贸易政策和产业政策增进本国福利的问题。本文发现 ,(1 )在Cournot同质产品竞争的情况下 ,制定可以诱使本国企业显示真实成本的政策规则可以实现与完全信息情况相同的配置结果 ;并且 ,本国企业的生产成本越低 ,政策规则规定的最优关税越低 ;在某些成本结构下 ,甚至应该执行零关税政策。 (2 )在圆形城市空间竞争 (SpatialCompetitioninCircularCity)的情况下 ,生产补贴和关税的作用完全等价 ;不存在可以实现事后效率的政策规则 ,并且 ,约束最优结果不是一个PBE均衡结果 ,本国政府的最优政策是制定等于单位运输成本的关税。上述结论蕴含 ,最优政策干预以及它能否消除非对称信息可能带来的效率损失依赖于竞争类型 ,而不依赖于信息结构 ,因此 ,它不会发生扭曲     

Water applications and Pigouvian taxes to control irrigation-induced soil degradation

Salt and water transport external costs of irrigation are borne disproportionately by lower elevation farmers. The relationship between fields for an optimal Pigouvian tax plan varies considerably as the amount of available water changes, demonstrating that a simple rule cannot be relied upon. A numerical example demonstrates the optimal application pattern and Pigouvian tax plan in contrast to the sequential Nash equilibrium. Shadow values for water are used to argue that between distributaries, the second best optimum is unlikely to be equal allocation. Physical measures of soil state are also shown to be worse under the optimal plan, throwing doubt on their usefulness.     

Second-best pricing with upstream distortions

Optimal pricing by a public firm facing an upstream monopolist and monopsonist is compared with the first-best rule, itself a modified Ramsey formula. Deviations from marginal cost are larger and occur even in the absence of a budget constraint.     

Using a Microeconometric Model of Household Labour Supply to Design Optimal Income Taxes*

With regards to empirical applications of optimal taxation theory, analytical expressions are typically adopted for optimal taxes, and then numerical values are imputed to their parameters by calibration or by using previous estimates. We aim to avoid the restrictive assumptions and possible inconsistencies of this approach. In contrast, we identify optimal taxes by iteratively running a microeconometric model, based on 1994 Norwegian data, until a given social welfare function is maximized, given the public budget constraint. The optimal rules envisage monotonically increasing marginal rates (negative on very low incomes) and – compared to the current rule – a lower average rate, lower marginal rates on low incomes, and higher marginal rates on very high incomes.     

Optimal Social Insurance with Linear Income Taxation*

We study optimal social insurance aimed at insuring disability risk in the presence of linear income taxation. Optimal disability insurance benefits rise with previous earnings. Optimal insurance is incomplete even though disability risks are exogenous and verifiable so that moral hazard in disability insurance is absent. Imperfect insurance is optimal because it encourages workers to insure themselves against disability by working and saving more, thereby alleviating the distortionary impact of the redistributive income tax on labor supply and savings.     

Resource harvesting regulation and enforcement: An evolutionary approach

We study the evolution of compliance and regulation of a renewable common pool resource, a fishery in particular, with appropriators whose decision on whether to comply or not with harvesting quotas is the result of imitation described by a proportional rule. The regulator first sets the optimal quota and then harvesters can choose between compliance and violation. We investigate myopic regulation and optimal regulation regimes with a proportional fine and an endogenized probability of audit. The outcome of regulation is characterized in terms of monomorphic and polymorphic steady states with respect to compliance. Using numerical simulations stability properties are examined, and sensitivity analysis explores the effect of various parameters on polymorphic steady-state outcomes.     

Monetary Neutrality and Optimality with Symmetric Partial Information

The neutrality and optimality of countercyclical monetary policy are examined in a representative economy featuring competitive equilibria in multiple markets and rational expectations based on a form of private information about current stochastic innovations in the economy. A necessary and sufficient condition for the neutrality of monetary policy is stated in terms of restrictions on the parameters of the linear rule describing prospective monetary feedback. Optimal monetary policy is fully characterized in terms of an alternative set of parameter restrictions. Optimal monetary feedback completely stabilizes deviations in commodity output by eliminating the influence of those current innovations about which agents cannot directly observe from the rational expectations of agents. [311]     

Should central bankers discount the future? A note

Optimal monetary policy under discretion is analysed in a New Keynesian model with rule of thumb pricing. The paper finds that social welfare increases if the policy maker does not discount the future. The welfare improvement rises with the extent of intrinsic inflation persistence.