The Environmental Paradox of the Welfare State: The Dynamics of Sustainability

Thus far, there has been a reluctance to instigate a dialogue and engage with the tensions between two literatures with significant insights for each other. The first is the literature on the fiscal sustainability of welfare states, which is invariably predicated upon future growth primarily to manage demographic changes. The second is the post-growth literature, which has enjoyed a renaissance in recent years due to an environmental critique of economic growth. Both literatures contain implications for the analysis of welfare state sustainability. The primary contribution of this paper will be to explore the intractability of the tensions between these discourses and the difficulty of mapping out a progressive policy direction in the twenty-first century which meets both our environmental and social sensibilities. It is claimed that in the post-industrial world the fiscal sustainability of welfare capitalism is dependent upon public expenditure financed indirectly an environmentally unsustainable growth dynamic, but that ironically any conflagration of public welfare programmes is likely to be counter-productive as the welfare state is able to promote de-carbonisation strategies and notions of the public good as well as promoting monetarily and ecologically efficient public welfare services.     

A Theoretical Perspective on Multilateral Agreements on Investment*

Why do we observe some developing countries objecting to the prospect of a Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI), even though they have been keen to liberalize investment in preferential agreements in recent years? In this paper, we analyze the issue of MAI implementation and assess the welfare consequences of such kind of agreements. In our model, participation to MAI involves a tradeoff between less rent extraction from multinational firms (MNEs) and more abundant FDI inflows. At equilibrium, either all countries enter MAI, or all countries stay out, or only some of them enter. Coordination problems may induce multiple equilibria: the three types of equilibria may coexist. So, the implementation of MAI may depend not only on structural factors but also on the general “political climate.” When all countries join MAI, world welfare is maximized because this minimizes the hold‐up problem faced by MNEs and stimulates investment. However, in an asymmetric world, welfare gains are not guaranteed for all countries.     

中国油气资源耗减成本及政策选择的宏观经济影响

由于不可再生能源资源的稀缺性,现在开发能源资源对未来使用者福利和经济可持续发展都有影响。本文采用ElSerafy的使用者成本法对中国油气资源耗减的估计结果说明,在近几年加快油气资源开发利用的同时,中国油气资源耗减的成本在快速增加。征收资源开采税可以反映资源的耗减成本,纠正目前能源资源价值低估和能源价格扭曲,使价格能真正反映资源的稀缺程度。CGE模型的定量分析表明,对油气开采行业征收20%以下的资源税,宏观经济负面影响并不大,但它顾及稀缺性资源耗减问题对后代福利的影响,从而具有可持续发展的意义。     

Endogenous growth and property rights over renewable resources

We study how different regimes of access rights to renewable natural resources – namely open access versus full property rights – affect sustainability, growth and welfare in the context of modern endogenous growth theory. Resource exhaustion may occur under both regimes but is more likely to arise under open access. Moreover, under full property rights, positive resource rents increase expenditures on manufacturing goods and temporarily accelerate productivity growth, but also yield a higher resource price at least in the short-to-medium run. We characterize analytically and quantitatively the model׳s dynamics to assess the welfare implications of differences in property rights enforcement.     

汽车共享消费的发展模式及社会经济特性分析

基于私人拥有为基础的汽车普及消费既是一种大幅度提高社会福利水平的生活方式,又是一种非可持续性消费模式.汽车普及消费在促进经济增长的同时不仅消耗大量自然资源,且造成极大的环境危害.要解决汽车消费的两难问题,除了制造技术的创新外,还必须进行消费模式的创新.汽车共享作为一种创新型交通模式,在发达国家已经得到相当程度的发展,在我国更具有推广应用前景.本文对汽车共享的概念和发展历程进行分析,并对其社会经济特性和发展模式等进行研究.     

Rapacious Resource Depletion,Excessive Investment and Insecure Property Rights: A Puzzle

For a country fractionalized in competing factions, each owning part of the stock of natural exhaustible resources, or with insecure property rights, we analyze how resources are transformed into productive capital to sustain consumption. We allow property rights to improve as the country transforms natural resources into capital. The ensuing power struggle about the control of resources is solved as a non-cooperative differential game. Prices of resources and depletion increase faster than suggested by the Hotelling rule, especially with many competing factions and less secure property rights. As a result, the country substitutes away from resources to capital too rapidly and invests more than predicted by the Hartwick rule. The theory suggests that power struggle boosts output but depresses aggregate consumption and welfare, especially in highly fractionalized countries with less secure property rights. Also, adjusted net saving estimates calculated by the World Bank using market prices over-estimate welfare-based measures of genuine saving. Since our theory suggests that genuine saving is zero while empirically they are negative in resource-rich, fractionalized countries, we suggest ways of resolving this puzzle.     

From the relative to the absolute digital divide in developing countries

This paper argues that the literature on the digital divide is based heavily on relative rather than absolute magnitudes, although the latter has more welfare significance. It is clear that the former concept has been falling sharply in recent years yet such calculations have not been made for the absolute divide. One contribution of this paper is to redress this gap in the literature for both mobile phones and the Internet using a sample of more than sixty countries. The results tend to be broadly consistent with findings from the literature on the adoption and diffusion of IT in developing countries generally and Africa in particular.     

土地一级市场垄断与地方公共品供给

在当前制度背景下,地方政府既是公共品的提供者,又是垄断了土地交易一级市场、"经营"土地的"企业家".本文建立一个理论模型阐明了,尽管垄断更多的国有土地能够放松财政约束,但均衡时地方政府会将更多的财政资源投入到能让土地增值和未来税收增长的基础设施建设中,教育、医疗和社会保障等公共服务并不一定是宽裕财政收入的受益者.利用全国284个地级市2003--2008年的面板数据的实证研究发现:在控制住其他变量后,地方政府垄断更多国有土地转让会显著增加经济性公共品的供给,非经济性公共品的供给则会显著下降.     

合作主义:中国福利制度框架的重构

合作主义 (corporatism)或称三方伙伴合作的程度在当代发达国家的经济制度和福利制度中是一个值得关注的问题。它与几乎所有工业化国家的社会保障制度相生相伴 ,相互依存 ,成为一枚硬币的两个侧面 ;它是现代文明国家发展进程中一个不可逾越的历史阶段 ,是现代社会保障制度与现代社会福利制度的结构中一种不可或缺的要素。在社会保障制度设计上我们应该有一个理性的预期 ,使之充分体现着我们价值观的追求 ,利用“后发国家”的优势和我国独特的政治优势 ,以避免当代西方福利国家中出现的问题 ;我国在进行经济制度的转型过程中不能忽略福利制度的转型 ,我国新工会法的颁布客观上为树立现代社会保障和社会福利制度法律框架的第一个支柱打下了桩基     

Was Bentham a primitive rational choice theory predecessor?

This paper challenges the view of Jeremy Bentham as a primitive predecessor of rational choice theory and welfare economics. The psychological hedonism in Bentham is of a rather weak form – net pleasure motivates behaviour, but we are not always capable of its maximisation. Thus, the outcome of our choices is not necessarily in our best interest and the aggregation of our revealed preferences is not necessarily a good indicator of general happiness. The bottom line is that the underpinnings of Bentham's utilitarianism are better aligned with contemporary psychological theory than previously thought, which puts his ethical thinking on firmer ground.     

Scarce collateral and bank reserves

If collateral for bank loans is scarce and, if as a result, access to secured loans is restricted, the allocation of resources is inefficient. In anticipation of future borrowing constraints, individuals over-invest in collateralized types of capital, and consume and invest inefficiently low levels while they are borrowing constrained. The dual counterpart of this misallocation of resources is inefficiently low interest rates. In this situation, bank reserves play a positive welfare role by adding liquidity to the economy and by increasing not only bank lending rates, but also, paradoxically, bank deposit rates. As a result, in economies with scarce collateral the optimal reserves–requirement ratio is positive.     

Entropy and economic processes — physics perspectives

This paper is a contribution to the discussion on the relation between thermodynamics and economic theory. With respect to thermodynamic constraints on the economy, there are two diametrically opposite positions in this discussion. One claims that the constraints are insignificant (‘of no immediate practical importance for modelling’) and in the intermediate run, do not limit economic activity and, therefore, need not be incorporated in the economic theory. The other holds that thermodynamics tells us that there are practical limits to materials recycling, which already puts bounds on the economy and, therefore, must be included in the economic models. Using the thermodynamic concept of entropy, we show here that there are fundamental problems with both positions. Even in the long run, entropy production associated with material dissipation need not be a limiting factor for economic development. Abundant energy resources from solar radiation may be used to recover dissipated elements. With simple, quantitative analysis we show that the rate of entropy production caused by human economic activities is very small compared to the continuous natural entropy production in the atmosphere and on the Earth's surface. Further, the societal entropy production is well within the range of natural variation. It is possible to replace part of the natural entropy production with societal entropy production by making use of solar energy. Society consumes resources otherwise available for coming generations. However, future generations need not have less resources available to them than the present generation. Human industrial activities could be transformed into a sustainable system where the more abundant elements are industrially used and recycled, using solar energy as the driving resource. An economic theory, fit to guide industrial society in that development, must not disregard thermodynamics nor must it overstate the consequences of the laws of thermodynamics.     

Window of Opportunity Opens: Asian and American Views of the International Economic Architecture

This paper compares US and Asian views of the international economic architecture including Asia's evolving regional institutions. Lessons from the global financial crisis are used to assess reforms of the financial institutions better to prevent and manage future crises. While G-20 leaders have increased the resources of the International Monetary Fund, much work remains to restore its legitimacy and independence and to define clearly the Financial Stability Board's mandate to strengthen financial oversight and regulation. The paper critiques proposals for a global super-regulator and concludes that while the global architecture is important, the tests of its success will be fewer government actions to self-insure and the willingness to heed warnings of future problems and take timely corrective actions.     

Assessment of the theory of comprehensive national accounting with data for Portugal

We present time-series tests of the quality of genuine savings and green net national income for predicting welfare changes. These tests check the validity of the theory of comprehensive national accounting, and more broadly of the theory of economic growth. The value of technological progress is included, as well as the effects of business cycles. We use estimates for Portugal as inputs. Overall, our results indicate that both genuine savings and changes in green net national income have the same sign as changes in welfare, but reject the hypothesis that the estimated comprehensive national accounting measures coincide with the theoretical expressions. The results also suggest that comprehensive accounting indicators perform better than conventional national accounting indicators, implying that, in general, the corrections proposed by the comprehensive accounting theory add explanatory power to conventional measures. The exception is the inclusion of education expenditures and technological progress, which decrease explanatory power. Excluding business cycles from green net national income increases the agreement with the theory. Comparing both indicators, in general, genuine savings presents better results.     

基于选择实验法的环境资源属性价值评价及实证研究

建立条件Logit模型和随机参数Logit模型,利用效用理论、福利经济学理论研究了滨海资源环境属性的重要性、边际价值以及环境资源状态改变对社会福利的影响。以大连市付家庄滨海公园为例,利用问卷调查数据进行实证研究。结果表明:随机参数Logit模型的拟合度比条件Logit模型要高、其回归效果更好;受访者对改善环境资源属性均持较为积极的态度,游客对环境资源属性的偏好程度由高到低为海水能见度、沙滩舒适度、沙滩清洁度和海洋生物种群数量;在付家庄滨海公园的当前环境下,游客的社会福利价值为64.82元/人,环境资源属性组合的最佳(最差)状态下游客的社会福利价值为127.12元/人(-18.18元/人),当前环境资源状态并非理想状态,还可以进一步改善。     

Welfare effects of competitive lobbying efforts in international oligopoly markets

Conventionally, rent-seeking activities have been considered to deteriorate social welfare and to distort resource allocation. This paper examines whether rent-seeking behavior can improve social welfare by focusing on the welfare effects of firms’ competitive lobbying efforts when governments can impose market entry regulation against foreign firms. We demonstrate that competitive lobbying efforts can improve social welfare when such lobbying efforts are directed to reduce market entry barriers. In addition, social welfare can be maximized when the government shows the maximum sensitivity to the foreign firm's political contributions while maintaining competitive market structure. Moreover, it is shown that the dominant strategy for a domestic firm is to allocate more resources to R&D sectors while it is optimal for foreign firms is to exert more efforts in lobbying to reduce the market entry barriers when a government makes political economic approach in market entry regulations.     

Exporting to bypass weak institutions

Institutions have been shown to be important for trade and growth. In particular, weak institutions may reduce the returns to product quality, harming domestic welfare and making it attractive to export to countries with strong institutions where quality is better rewarded. We model this alternative story as to why the “good apples are shipped out” and explore whether exporting ameliorates the problems created by weak institutions. We find that, instead, because home prices do not reflect the marginal value of quality, access to developed markets can be welfare reducing. Specifically, there are always export prices such that total welfare (and not just consumer welfare) is harmed by exporting. Furthermore, if the domestic price equilibrates to the export price, then the marginal unit exported reduces total welfare. Exporting can even reduce producer surplus, leading to a contraction of the export industry; although, welfare can decrease even if production of the exported good increases. Thus, our results reinforce the importance of strengthening institutions to help the development of economies.     

我国旅游资源产权问题探析

旅游企业产权明晰问题已逐渐被社会认同，而旅游资源产权明晰问题却未受到应有重视。我国旅游资源产权界定不清，产权制度安排不合理，已在某种程度上束缚和妨碍了我国旅游资源的合理利用和旅游业的进一步发展。旅游资源产权问题成为近期旅游界的一个热点话题。文章主要运用俱乐部理论、资源价值理论、产权理论等，从深层次上对我国旅游资源产权不明晰的成因进行了分析，并对构建我国现代旅游资源产权制度提出了一些建议。     

Sustainable Development and International Distribution: Theory and Application to Rainforests

A situation is analyzed in which two countries negotiate the financing of costs that accrue if one of them switches onto a sustainable development path. The other country's incentive to pay arises as it benefits from the developing country's environmental resources, but at an ever declining rate as long as development remains nonsustainable. In an application to the protection of tropical rainforests it is shown that North to South redistribution of welfare would be substantial, yet the North would still gain enormously in efficiency terms. An explanation is given of why the Rio Conference failed in terms of rainforest protection.     

Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens

The fundamental problems facing European welfare states – high unemployment and unsustainable public pensions plans in particular – have been in the political debate for years, so why have we seen so little reform? To find out, we surveyed the opinions of citizens in France, Germany, Italy and Spain on their welfare states and on various reform options. This is what we found. First, most workers underestimate the costs of public pensions, though they are aware of their unsustainability. Second, the status quo is a majoritarian outcome: a majority of citizens opposes cuts to social security and welfare spending, but also opposes further increases. Since population ageing without reform implies an automatic expansion, our results suggest that most citizens would favour reforms that stabilize but do not shrink the current welfare states. Third, many would welcome changes in the allocation of benefits. A large number of workers in Italy and Germany would be willing to opt out of public pensions and replace them with private pensions, though the details of how this scheme is formulated matter for its popularity. And many Italians and Spaniards would welcome an extension of the coverage of unemployment insurance. Fourth, conflicts over the welfare state are mainly shaped by the economic situation of the respondent, while political ideology plays a limited role. Disagreements are found along three dimensions: young versus old, rich versus poor, and 'outsider' versus 'insider' in terms of labour market status. From a practical point of view, this suggests that there is scope to bundle reforms strategically in order to build a large and mixed coalition of supporters.
— Tito Boeri, Axel Börsch-Supan and Guido Tabellini