开放条件下我国货币政策的国际协调

开放条件下，一国货币政策进行国际协调是十分重要的。本文对货币政策国际协调的理论研究作了简要回顾，并结合我国1994年以来货币政策的实践进行分析。文章发现，我国货币政策进行国际协调的实践并不多，与汇率政策之间多次存在冲突，与美国货币政策有过简单协调。当前人民币升值压力实际上来自我国货币政策如何与美国等发达国家的经济政策进行协调。从过去实践来看，我国货币政策国际协调的问题主要是如何在现存汇率体制下实现货币供给的独立性。文章认为，在进行汇率调整基础上，我国货币政策进行国际协调的难度将降低。     

开放经济下的货币政策效果

文章从我国目前货币政策的效果分析入手 ,提出国内货币政策运行机制改革和外汇体制改革必须结合进行 ,以及汇率和利率政策的搭配问题。提出要提高我国货币政策的有效性 ,必须将固定汇率制转变到管理的浮动汇率制上来 ,逐步加强中央银行对外汇市场的宏观调控和加强我国货币市场建设 ,完善对货币供应量内生性波动的冲销手段。     

The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission and Stabilization Policy in a Post-Keynesian Macrodynamic Model

This paper develops a macrodynamic model that takes into account the potentially inflationary consequences of interest rate manipulations through the cost channel of monetary transmission. Evaluations of the macroeconomic implications of the cost channel are common in the mainstream literature. But this literature uses supply-determined macro models and provides standard optimizing microfoundations for the various ways in which the interest rate can affect mark-ups, prices and ultimately the form of the Phillips curve. Our purpose is to study the implications of different Phillips curves, each embodying the cost channel and derived from Post-Keynesian, cost-based-pricing microfoundations, in a monetary-production economy. We focus on the impact of these Phillips curves on macroeconomic stability and the consequent efficacy of stabilization policy. Ultimately, our results suggest that the presence of the cost channel is less significant for stabilization policy than the general orientation of the policy regime. These results corroborate earlier findings that, in a monetary-production economy, more orthodox policy regimes are inimical to macro stabilization.     

基于SVAR模型的货币政策对信贷规模的影响分析

货币政策的目标包括货币量目标和利率目标.在考察货币政策的信贷渠道机制上,本文对1999年1月-20l0年6月货币量和利率对信贷规模的影响进行分时段分析.SVAR模型的估计结果显示,货币总量的效果比利率的效果更加显著,加入货币总量后,对信贷规模变动情况的解释力提高,银行信贷对利率的敏感性呈现显著提升.因此,我国货币政策操作应逐渐依靠利率引导,淡出总量调控,从而规避总量调控带来的流动性过剩和通货膨胀等负效应.     

The New Consensus on Monetary Policy and its Post-Keynesian Critique

Abstract

This paper seeks to look at the underlying framework of the New Consensus models, providing a Post-Keynesian critique. In the light of this critique, the model is reformulated, with its basic structure intact, but with alternative post-Keynesian specifications of the Phillips curve being considered. It is shown that such modifications, either allow a long run trade-off between the rate of inflation and the level of output, the rate of capacity utilization and, therefore, unemployment, or, in our preferred specification, changes in output and capacity have no implications for inflation over a large range of capacity utilization.     

Monetary Policy Rules for a Small Open Economy

In this paper, the optimal choice of a monetary target is investigated for a small open economy that is subject to foreign monetary policy shocks. In contrast to large parts of the literature, pegging the exchange rate is never the best policy choice for the small open economy in our model. Instead, monetary targeting and, depending on the parameter combination, producer price index targeting come closest to the optimal policy rule in terms of welfare. Generally, the welfare performance of the simple targeting rules under consideration hinge critically on the degree of pass-through in the home economy and in the rest of the world.     

开放经济下不同目标制的最优货币政策分析

通过建立一个统一的简单宏观经济模型,本文分析了在开放经济条件下中央银行如何实现不同目标制下的最优货币政策.研究发现.浮动汇率制成为稳定国内经济、有效应对国内外冲击、实施独立和内向型货币政策的最优选择.对于我国中央银行而言,现阶段更为可行的货币政策规则是通过逐渐放宽汇率波动的区间并与随机干预相结合的办法来有步骤的实现浮动汇率制,并将实际利率维持在一个较低但仍为正的水平上.     

Monetary Policy in a Very Open Economy: Some Major Analytical Issues

This paper develops three considerations relevant to the possibility of modification of the Hong Kong currency board system for conducting monetary/exchange‐rate policy. The first concerns the system employed by Singapore, an economy similar in several ways to Hong Kong's, whereby the exchange rate is adjusted periodically in activist response to inflation and output developments. The second concerns a generalization, one that calls for adjustments of a weighted average of exchange rate and interest rate instruments, so designed to be effective whether the economy is, or is not, in a liquidity‐trap situation. Finally, the third topic concerns political‐economy aspects of policy, which tend to incline against the use of the activist systems.     

A Post-Keynesian Model of the Palestinian Economy: The Economics of an Investment-Constrained Economy

The 60-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict has deeply influenced the evolution of the Palestinian economy. In the last two decades political instability and the Israeli closure policy have generated protracted economic stagnation and poor capital formation. The paper describes the consequences on the Palestinian economy of existing high transaction costs and market fragmentation. We propose a simple one-sector Post-Keynesian model that describes Palestine as a demand-driven economy. We show that high transaction costs and market fragmentation discourage investment by curtailing expected profitability, reducing the size of the market and depressing entrepreneurs' animal spirits. In the short run, these two factors induce low levels of capacity utilization and low rates of capital accumulation. The situation is even more worrying in the long run when entrepreneurs can revise their expectations. Depressed animal spirits and low levels of capacity use give rise to a low-growth trap from which Palestine can hardly escape. We also highlight the possible positive impact of the removal of high transaction costs and of market fragmentation, and the ensuing beneficial effects on the long-run equilibrium values of capital accumulation and capacity use. The conclusions place these analytical results into the historical situation of the Palestinian economy, and consider what is needed, politically and economically, in order to establish a sustained development process.

The division of labour is limited by the extent of the market. (Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, Book I, chapter III)     

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyse the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference among these regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.     

Monetary Policy Games and International Migration in a Small Open Economy

The paper shows that international migration may improve the position of both policymakers and unions in small open economies irrespective of whether they cooperate or not. This result implies that both unions and policymakers in small open economies may welcome a further increase in international labor flow in the future. When allowance is made for real GDP per capital considerations on behalf of the policymaker, it is found that aggressive union behavior may increase the inflationary bias. Aggressive unions may insulate themselves, while soft unions lose. The presence of migration does not necessarily lead to a better outcome.     

Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility

This paper develops a welfare-based model of monetary policy in an open economy. We examine the optimal monetary policy under commitment, focusing on the nature of price adjustment in determining policy. We investigate the implications of these policies for exchange-rate flexibility. The traditional approach maintains that exchange-rate flexibility is desirable in the presence of real country-specific shocks that require adjustment in relative prices. However, in the light of empirical evidence on nominal price response to exchange-rate changes—specifically, that there appears to be a large degree of local-currency pricing (LCP) in industrialized countries—the expenditure-switching role played by nominal exchange rates may be exaggerated in the traditional literature. In the presence of LCP, we find that the optimal monetary policy leads to a fixed exchange rate, even in the presence of country-specific shocks. This is true whether monetary policy is chosen cooperatively or non-cooperatively among countries.     

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Interactions in a Small Open Economy

The transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in a small open economy like Norway are analysed through structural VARs, with special emphasis on the interdependence between monetary policy and exchange rate movements. By imposing a long‐run neutrality restriction on the real exchange rate, thereby allowing the interest rate and the exchange rate to react simultaneously to news, I find considerable interdependence between monetary policy and the exchange rate. In particular, following a contractionary monetary policy shock, the real exchange rate immediately appreciates, after which it gradually depreciates back to the baseline. The results are found to be consistent with findings from an “event study”.     

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction in a Simple Accelerator Model

In this paper, a simple Keynesian and discrete time multiplier ?C accelerator model is developed, which results after the inclusion of the money market and a balanced government budget constraint in Samuelson??s (1939) business cycle model. The resulted model is proved to be less stable and the evolution of income around its equilibrium is more likely to exhibit a sinusoidal way of movement. The magnitude of the main tools of fiscal and monetary policy is assumed to be determined solely by the government and the Central Bank respectively, so that income??s constant amplitude around its intertemporal equilibrium value is minimized.     

Closing the Small Open Economy Model: A Demographic Approach

Closing the small open economy model has been a stumbling block in studying the dynamic evolution of such models. The typical procedure of equating the after‐tax return on traded bonds to the rate of time preference involves imposing an arbitrary and constraining knife‐edge condition. This paper replaces the infinitely lived representative agent framework with a plausible demographic structure. This yields a well‐behaved macrodynamic equilibrium without imposing any knife‐edge conditions. The equilibrium dynamics generated by the Rectangular survival function, characteristic of the Samuelson–Diamond model, closely track those corresponding to an empirically estimated survival function. However, the Blanchard survival function tracks the data poorly in terms of absolute levels, while the closeness of its relative dynamics (following a structural change) depends on the source of the structural change.     

Monetary Stabilisation Policy in a Monetary Union: Some Simple Analytics

We do two things in this paper. First, we look at some simple models of monetary decision making in a monetary union and ask how much more variable a country's output and inflation is likely to be if it joins the union. We answer this analytically and then go on to 'calibrate' the simple model. The model has few structural equations, but it is useful in allowing us to examine how the variability of output and inflation are likely to change as key parameters change. Our conclusions on this front are likely to be sensitive to model specification. However, we also identify a second best issue concerning the optimal make–up of the monetary union which is likely to be more robust: namely that only when all members of the union have the same structural parameter values (and shocks are perfectly correlated) will it be optimal for a new member to have these same structural parameter values.     

开放经济下货币政策国际传导机制分析

对在开放经济条件下,以货币供应量、利率、汇率为载体进行的货币政策的国际传导机制进行了深入剖析。认为货币政策在国际间的传导方式是公开的,其对他国货币政策的影响是间接的、双向的。这就要求货币当局在制定和实施货币政策时必须考虑国际经济因素的影响,也促使各国在货币政策上进行协调与合作,以尽可能地保证一国货币政策目标的实现和共同福利的最大化。