Tracking emerging technologies in energy research: Toward a roadmap for sustainable energy

Science and technology for renewable and sustainable energy are indispensable for our future society and economics. To meet the goal of sustainable energy development, there is a growing body of research efforts world wide. The planner of energy research has to grasp the broader coverage of scientific and technological research, and make decisions on effective investment in promising and emerging technologies especially under circumstances of limited resources. In this paper, we track emerging research domains in energy research by using citation network analysis. Our analysis confirms that the fuel cell and solar cell are rapidly growing domains in energy research. We further investigate the detailed structure of these two domains by clustering publications in these domains. Each citation cluster has characteristic research topics, and there is a variety of growth trends among the clusters. By using citation network analysis, we can track emerging research domains among a pile of publications efficiently and effectively.     

新能源技术产业与中国的发展策略

新能源技术产业是现代社会能源发展的必然走向，发展清洁、安全的新能源技术产业，是环境友好型、资源节约型社会发展的本质要求，是推动和谐社会发展必不可少的原动力，是重要的战略资源，是国际上高新技术产业之一，是国民经济的基础性产业，有利于经济持续健康发展，有利于人民生活质量的提高和生态环境的改善，新能源技术产业是新形势下能源转型的战略选择与重要方向。但当前新能源技术产业还处于初步发展阶段，需进一步的完善和发展。     

Application of technology roadmaps for renewable energy sector

Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a growing technique widely used for strategy planning and aligning technology with overall business objectives. Technology roadmaps are extensively used in many diverse fields at product, technology, industry, company and national levels. An increasing number of articles published on TRM and technology roadmaps indicate that there is a growing attention for TRM among the researchers from academia, industry and government. In this article, an overview of the application of TRM in renewable energy sector has been provided. After survey of the relevant academic literature and industry roadmaps, we tried to group the roadmaps related to the renewable energy technologies into national, industry/sector and organizational level roadmaps. Research findings indicate that goals and objectives of renewable energy roadmaps are different at these three levels. At national level, roadmaps focus on future energy security, energy dependence, energy policy formulation and environment protection. At industry/sector level, roadmaps are used to identify vision, common needs and evaluate barriers, constraints and risks faced by the industry from technical, political and commercial aspects. Organizational roadmap focuses on evaluation and prioritization of R&D projects to achieve the business goals. Similarly different methods, tools and approaches are used to develop roadmaps at different levels. Various other characteristics of these roadmaps are also discussed and analyzed. Research findings also indicate that greater numbers of roadmaps are developed for those renewable energy technologies undergoing rapid growth. Moreover, most of these roadmaps are developed in the regions where more research, development and deployment activities of renewable energy technologies is taking place.     

Time-saving innovations, time allocation, and energy use: Evidence from Canadian households

Time and energy are major inputs into the production of household goods and services. As a result, the market penetration of time-saving technologies for general household use is expected to affect both a household's (i) allocation of time across home production and leisure activities; and (ii) energy use. For example, with a household's adoption of a microwave or a dishwasher, cooking food and washing dishes will require less time, and therefore in-home meal preparation may increase. Households with microwaves or dishwashers may also opt to spend more time undertaking other production activities, inside or outside the home, or engage in more leisure (watching TV, reading, exercising). To the extent that time is reallocated from less to more energy-intensive activities in the home, residential energy use will increase as households adopt appliances that embody time-saving technology. Furthermore, an adoption of time-saving technologies for basic household chores, such as meal preparation and laundry, can impact energy use due to the fact that many time-saving technologies are more energy intensive than alternative technologies that require larger time commitments. In this paper, we use the Canadian Survey of Household Energy Use data from 2003 to examine the extent to which ownership of products that embody time-saving innovations affects time allocation and energy use at the household level.     

Who innovates with whom and why? Evidence from international collaboration in energy patenting

ABSTRACT

The use of renewable and alternative energy technologies, which have the potential to reduce carbon emissions worldwide, is limited. Common environmental policy environments may encourage inventors to share the costs and risks needed to develop high quality energy technologies. In this work, I study the propensity to collaboratively innovate by examining counts of renewable energy and alternative energy patents from 1990–2013 that have multiple inventors that are located in more than one country. Results from a gravity model framework suggest that similarity in environmental regulations is an important, positive driver of collaboration in energy technologies. I find that this impact is driven by market-based environmental policies that give inventors the flexibility to seek out international partnerships. I provide evidence that market-based environmental policy similarity may encourage collaboration across geographic and cultural distances but may not encourage collaboration across technologically dissimilar nations.     

A multiple perspectives view of the market case for green energy

This paper presents an exploratory evaluation of the market case for green energy. These energy sources are widely considered to have less of an ecological impact than conventional energy sources. The case for green energy is viewed from the multiple perspectives TOP (technical, organizational, personal) framework. The green energy technologies will need to meet certain technical, organizational and personal criteria and resolve key issues in order to address the barriers to market adoption. The multiple perspectives approach facilitates the evaluation of green-energy alternatives as potential new products which would enable organizations and individuals to meet both economic and green criteria that impact customer value creation. Given the present trends of increasing energy use and requirements to minimize environmental impact, green energy adoption may become a key element of strategies to ensure long-term economic growth.     

Marine renewables: a new innovation frontier

The UK has a large marine renewable energy resource and has been developing a range of wave and tidal technologies for exploiting it. However, progress on moving to the commercial scale has been slow, in part, it is argued, as a result of the way this area of innovation has been supported by the government. This paper looks at the technologies and how they are being developed in the UK and elsewhere. It notes that, although the UK is still in the lead in terms of novel device development, unless better support is provided, the UK might lose out to device developers from other countries in the race to capture the very large global market that is opening up for the relevant technologies.     

低碳经济：未来经济发展的新规则——英国在金融危机下出台低碳产业战略和低碳复苏计划

作为金融危机主要受创国之一，英国一直在寻求经济复苏的途径，以及未来战略产业规划。2009年可看出其调整的一个重要方向，就是将经济复苏与发展低碳产业结合起来。一季度以来，英国政府相继出台了《投资低碳英国》等3项重大低碳战略，把低碳能源、低碳汽车、能效以及低碳基础设施作为未来发展的重要领域，并出台了力度很大的投资计划。计划在2008—2011年3年间累计投资500亿英镑，2009年新年度财政预算将新增14亿英镑，用于支持一些关键性低碳领域等。英国这些措施着意在于布局新一轮世界绿色产业革命的制高点。本文建议：一方面尽快制定我国的低碳经济战略规划；另一方面进一步增强自主创新能力，加强中长期低碳战略技术的储备工作。     

Technology variation vs. R&D uncertainty: What matters most for energy patent success?

R&D is an uncertain activity with highly skewed outcomes. Nonetheless, most recent empirical studies and modeling estimates of the potential of technological change focus on the average returns to research and development (R&D) for a composite technology and contain little or no information about the distribution of returns to R&D – which could be important for capturing the range of costs associated with climate change mitigation policies – by individual technologies. Through an empirical study of patent citation data, this paper adds to the literature on the outcomes of energy R&D by focusing on the behavior of the most successful innovations for six energy technologies, allowing us to determine whether uncertainty or differences in technologies matter most for success. We highlight two key results. First, we compare the results from an aggregate analysis of six energy technologies to technology-by-technology results. Our results show that existing work that assumes diminishing returns but assumes one generic technology is too simplistic and misses important differences between more successful and less successful technologies. Second, we use quantile regression techniques to learn more about patents that have a high positive error term in our regressions – that is, patents that receive many more citations than predicted based on observable characteristics. We find that differences across technologies, rather than differences across quantiles within technologies, are more important. The value of successful technologies persists longer than those of less successful technologies, providing evidence that success is the culmination of several advances building upon one another, rather than resulting from one single breakthrough. Diminishing returns to research activities appear most problematic during rapid increases of research investment, such as experienced by solar energy in the 1970s.     

Technology variation vs. R&D uncertainty: What matters most for energy patent success?

R&D is an uncertain activity with highly skewed outcomes. Nonetheless, most recent empirical studies and modeling estimates of the potential of technological change focus on the average returns to research and development (R&D) for a composite technology and contain little or no information about the distribution of returns to R&D – which could be important for capturing the range of costs associated with climate change mitigation policies – by individual technologies. Through an empirical study of patent citation data, this paper adds to the literature on the outcomes of energy R&D by focusing on the behavior of the most successful innovations for six energy technologies, allowing us to determine whether uncertainty or differences in technologies matter most for success. We highlight two key results. First, we compare the results from an aggregate analysis of six energy technologies to technology-by-technology results. Our results show that existing work that assumes diminishing returns but assumes one generic technology is too simplistic and misses important differences between more successful and less successful technologies. Second, we use quantile regression techniques to learn more about patents that have a high positive error term in our regressions – that is, patents that receive many more citations than predicted based on observable characteristics. We find that differences across technologies, rather than differences across quantiles within technologies, are more important. The value of successful technologies persists longer than those of less successful technologies, providing evidence that success is the culmination of several advances building upon one another, rather than resulting from one single breakthrough. Diminishing returns to research activities appear most problematic during rapid increases of research investment, such as experienced by solar energy in the 1970s.     

Individualism and the adoption of clean energy technology

Why do 20% of Swedes report having adopted a clean energy system while the corresponding share of Spaniards equals 0.4%? Using data for about 25,000 individuals across 33 countries, this study tests which cultural trait, individualism or collectivism, is associated with greater levels of clean technology adoption. Our fractional probit estimates suggest that individualistic individuals are more inclined to adopt clean energy systems for home and transport purposes. In particular, the adoption probability rises by an estimated 2% if a person exhibits individualistic values. This finding is not driven by country-specific tax or subsidy policies or market-specific determinants and is robust to controlling for individual and household characteristics, attitudes, social and personal norms and other significant dimensions of cultural differences. The results, therefore, facilitate an understanding of how the decision to adopt clean energy technologies can be driven by cultural factors.     

DRAMs, fiber and energy compared with three models of market penetration

When a new technology is introduced in the market, this technology generally follows an S-shaped curve, especially if measured on a relative (market share) basis. Marchetti and Nakicenovic and Norton and Bass have modeled the multivariant case of various technologies introduced at different times. A new, simple and flexible model has been proposed based on potential penetration. Potential penetration is penetration on the assumption that no other new technology will enter the market. In a stable competitive environment, potential penetration curves are typically positively sloped S-curves. The new model gives a good fit in markets with a limited number of competitors, which are capable of totally cannibalizing previous generations of technologies. It also fits well with markets with many competitors in a competitive equilibrium situation. Examples are the Dynamic Random Access Memory chips (DRAMs), fiber and energy market. The new model features fewer variables compared with existing models and can readily be adapted to technological processes with time varying parameters, which is particularly important in volatile competitive markets.     

城市循环经济建设中的污水热能资源开发与水资源再生一体化研究

发展循环经济,建设资源节约型和环境友好型城市是构建和谐社会、建设全面小康的必然选择,是转变我国经济增长方式的重要保证。采用适宜的技术和工艺,推广使用符合标准的再生水,使污水资源化,将城市污水处理的战略目标由传统意义上的污水处理、达标排放转变为以提高水资源综合利用率为核心的水循环再用,是城市水资源再生利用的重要思路。本文重点介绍了从城市污水中提取冷热量向建筑物供热、供冷,在确保没有污染的情况下变废为宝,再开发利用城市污水中蕴涵的可利用能源,为城市污水的资源化开辟新途径的创新思路。     

Asymmetric impacts of ICT and energy intensity on agricultural productivity: Evidence from Asia-Pacific region

In the contemporary times of rising food insecurity and malnutrition, the agricultural sector needs more attention. This study aims to investigate the asymmetric impacts of information and communication technologies (ICTs), energy intensity, urbanization, and inequality on agricultural productivity for 20 Asia-Pacific countries from 1990 to 2020. To investigate asymmetric impacts, the study employs the panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. The estimated results revealed that positive and negative shocks in ICT, energy intensity, and urbanization have asymmetric impacts on agricultural productivity in the long run, whereas symmetry is observed in short-run impacts. It is found that a 1% increase (decrease) in ICT and urbanization increases (decreases) agricultural productivity by 0.292% (0.662%) and 2.717% (2.759%), respectively, whereas a 1% increase (decrease) in energy intensity decreases (increases) agricultural productivity by 0.252% (0.216%) in the long run. Furthermore, the results of the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test point out the existence of bi-directional causality between agricultural productivity and the independent variables (ICT, energy intensity, urbanization, and inequality). Based on the findings, the study suggests that the Asia-Pacific countries should increase the application of ICT and use energy more efficiently in agriculture to boost agricultural productivity.     

A review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies

Transitioning towards a sustainable energy system requires the large-scale introduction of novel energy demand and supply technologies. Such novel technologies are often expensive at the point of their market introduction but eventually become cheaper due to technological learning. In order to quantify potentials for price and cost decline, the experience curve approach has been extensively applied to renewable and non-renewable energy supply technologies. However, its application to energy demand technologies is far less frequent. Here, we provide the first comprehensive review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies. We find a widespread trend towards declining prices and costs at an average learning rate of 18 ± 9%. This finding is consistent with the results for energy supply technologies and for manufacturing in general. Learning rates for individual energy demand technologies are symmetrically distributed around the arithmetic mean of the data sample. Absolute variation of learning rates within individual technology clusters of 7 ± 4%-points and between technology clusters of 7 ± 5%-points both contribute to the overall variability of learning rates. Our results show that technological learning is as important for energy demand technologies as it is for energy supply technologies. Applying the experience curve approach to forecast technology costs involves, however, unresolved uncertainties, as we demonstrate in a case study for the micro-cogeneration technology.     

Renewable energy consumption and unemployment: evidence from a sample of 80 countries and nonlinear estimates

This article contributes to the discussion on the dynamic nexus of renewable energy consumption and unemployment by incorporating nonlinear cointegration and causality analysis. Using a sample of 80 countries spanning the period 1990–2013 and the advanced generation of unit root, cointegration and nonlinear Granger causality methodological approaches in panel data, we obtain mixed results about the impact of renewable energy consumption on unemployment. Although the total findings document a positive impact of renewable energy consumption on unemployment, disaggregated data across specific regions, such as Asia and Latin America, highlight the favourable effect on unemployment, implying that the effect of renewable energy consumption on jobs creation depends on the cost of adopting renewable energy technologies and energy efficiencies that seem to vary across the regions under investigation.     

Flexible customer willingness to pay for bundled smart home energy products and services

Energy markets are rapidly changing with smarter, connected, more reliable infrastructure and cleaner generation on the supply side, and more choice, greater control and enhanced flexibility for customers. This paper examines willingness to pay for bundled smart home energy products and information services, using data from a set of two discrete choice experiments that were part of a survey by the regional energy provider of upstate New York. To let the data reveal how preferences are distributed in the population, a logit-mixed logit model in willingness-to-pay space and a combination of observed and unobserved preference heterogeneity was specified and fitted. Results show that residents of Tompkins County are willing to pay more than in other counties for residential storage, and that for home energy management there is an important generational divide with millennials being much more likely to perceive the economic value in the smart energy technologies. The flexible logit-mixed logit estimates provide evidence of important heterogeneity in preferences: whereas most of the population has a positive—albeit rather low—valuation of smart energy products and services, there is a considerable percentage of customers with negative perceptions.     

Physical energy cost serves as the “invisible hand” governing economic valuation: Direct evidence from biogeochemical data and the U.S. metal market

Energy supply is mandatory for the production of economic value. Nevertheless, tradition dictates that an enigmatic “invisible hand” governs economic valuation. Physical scientists have long proposed alternative but testable energy cost theories of economic valuation, and have shown the gross correlation between energy consumption and economic output at the national level through input-output energy analysis. However, due to the difficulty of precise energy analysis and highly complicated real markets, no decisive evidence directly linking energy costs to the selling prices of individual commodities has yet been found. Over the past century, the US metal market has accumulated a huge body of price data, which for the first time ever provides us the opportunity to quantitatively examine the direct energy-value correlation. Here, by analyzing the market price data of 65 purified chemical elements (mainly metals) relative to the total energy consumption for refining them from naturally occurring geochemical conditions, we found a clear correlation between the energy cost and their market prices. The underlying physics we proposed has compatibility with conventional economic concepts such as the ratio between supply and demand or scarcity's role in economic valuation. It demonstrates how energy cost serves as the “invisible hand” governing economic valuation. Thorough understanding of this energy connection between the human economic and the Earth's biogeochemical metabolism is essential for improving the overall energy efficiency and furthermore the sustainability of the human society.     

Implied discount rate and payback threshold of energy efficiency investment in the industrial sector

The industrial sector is responsible for about a third of the energy usage in the United States, and there is significant energy saving potential from the industrial sector. However, the phenomenon of “energy efficiency gap” – the scenario in which cost-effective energy efficient technologies enjoy only limited market success – appears frequently in the industrial sector. This article tries to explain this efficiency gap in the industrial sector by empirically estimating the implied discount rates and payback thresholds industrial firms use to evaluate their energy efficiency investments. Using the Industrial Assessment Centers (IAC) database from 2002 to 2011, with more than 30 000 energy efficiency recommendations, this article builds structural models of firms’ evaluation of an energy efficiency project. The model results show that the implied discount rates of medium to small industrial firms range from 40 to 45%, and the average payback threshold is about 9 months.     

Making the energy transition in rural east Africa: Is leapfrogging an alternative?

There is renewed optimism about the potential for leapfrogging in the rural energy sector of East Africa. By adopting highly efficient and renewable technologies many believe the region can rapidly bypass the conventional path of energy development and skip directly into the use of more efficient and environmentally friendly technologies. This study explores the potential for energy leapfrogging by examining three technological approaches targeted at rural households in East Africa: conventional grid expansion, renewable energy technologies supplying electricity, and improved cookstoves. The study identifies economic, social, political, and cultural factors limiting the ability of rural people to rapidly switch into using and/or supplying these technologies. The potential for leapfrogging may be overstated by planners and experts who focus on the technical and economic viability of the technologies while insufficiently considering the social conditions and economic realities of daily life in the region. Moreover, energy leapfrogging itself is considered a misconception. Energy transitions in rural areas are incremental processes—not leaps—dependent upon household and regional accumulations of technological capabilities. These capabilities have technical, organizational, and institutional components and are manifest in individuals' capacity to adapt to new technologies, their ability to take economic risks, and in their desire to modify their behavior. In designing technology dissemination or energy supply projects, planners must thoroughly account for the capabilities existing in rural areas.