Hayek, Keynes, and modern macroeconomics

The Great Recession seems to be creating a change in the trend of macroeconomic thinking. Prior to the financial crisis of 2008, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models dominated the macroeconomics literature without any apparent challengers on the horizon. Since then, however, we have seen an increasing interest in macroeconomic models that address the state of confidence (??animal spirits??), complexity, cognition, and radical uncertainty. Most of the renewed interest in animal spirits, complexity, cognition, and radical uncertainty has come from a more or less ??Keynesian?? perspective. We discuss the potential to emphasize these elements from a more ??Hayekian?? perspective and argue that Austrian approaches to macroeconomics along these lines are more likely to resonate with mainstream economists than in years past.     

Does monetary policy affect the long-run expectations of non-stationary real interest rates?

In this article, we analyse whether the monetary policy affects the long-run expectation of the non-stationary real interest rate. The analysis is conducted through Beveridge–Nelson trend decomposition within a cointegrated vector autoregressive model based on the New Keynesian framework. We suggest an augmented test of the conventional co-integration test on the non-stationarity of the real interest rate, which checks whether the co-integration coefficient of inflation is one and the output gap affects the co-integration equilibrium of the nominal interest rate. We further suggest decomposing the long-run expectation of the non-stationary real interest rate into three trends: the interest rate shock (including the monetary shock), inflation shock and output gap shock. According to empirical analyses using monthly US data after the Korean War, the long-run expectation of the non-stationary real interest rate contains an interest rate shock trend and the impulse of the federal fund target rate induces a significant response of the interest rate shock trend. However, the interest rate shock trend has a very small portion of the long-run expectation of the non-stationary real interest rate, which may explain why the monetary policy was not particularly effective in the economic recovery after the global financial crisis.     

The Institutionalist Roots of Macroprudential Ideas: Veblen and Galbraith on Regulation,Policy Success and Overconfidence

One consequence of the global financial crisis has been to prompt debate over macroprudential regulation – meant to limit private risk-taking that threatens systemic stability. In this paper, we stress the roots of macroprudential ideas in the Institutionalist economics of Veblen and Galbraith in a way that highlights both unrecognised policy possibilities and underappreciated impediments to policy effectiveness, arguing in particular that regulatory success can breed overconfidence. First, we argue that while Veblen's views anticipated macroprudential arguments, they also obscured tensions between the technocratic acumen of policy ‘engineers’ and popular legitimacy. Second, we argue that while Galbraith's views similarly shaped the postwar Keynesian policy mix, they also echoed Veblen in underrating the potential for populist resentment of an intellectual ‘technostructure’. We conclude that while this analysis can be seen as highlighting an overlooked century of macroprudential debate, it also demonstrates the potential for technocratic overconfidence – which can eventually undermine policy legitimacy and effectiveness.     

回到凯恩斯还是回到熊彼特？——基于主流宏观经济学发展历程的理论反思

大萧条爆发后,嘬终占据主流地位的是系统提出摆脱大萧条方案的凯恩斯主义经济学。20世纪70年代以后,凯恩斯主义因无法解释“滞胀”现象而日渐式微。20世纪80年代以来,新古典主义和新凯恩斯主义共同占据主流地位,它们都要对2008年全球金融危机的爆发负责。危机爆发之后,“回到凯恩斯”的声音日渐高涨。但是凯恩斯主义宏观政策只能防止经济深度下滑,并不能带来经济长期繁荣,也不能帮助人们理解市场经济运行的本质特征。在后危机时代,我们需要“回到熊彼特”,以熊彼特的创新理论为基本框架来理解经济周期和金融危机,从而找到走出危机的治本之道。     

The government expenditure–economic growth relation in Japan: an analysis by using the ADL test for threshold cointegration

Based on annual data from Japan for the period 1960 to 2010, we investigate the government expenditure–economic growth relation in Japan by using the autoregressive distributed lag test for threshold cointegration developed by Li and Lee (2010). In particular, we evaluate the validity of Wagner’s view and the Keynesian view in the case of Japan. The empirical results presented herein indicate that of these two classical economics perspectives, only Wagner’s view holds for Japan. The findings also demonstrate that the adjustment process towards its long-run equilibrium is asymmetric.     

Keynes against Kalecki on economic method

In the past twenty years, there has been considerable debate on the “coherence” of post Keynesian economics, in view of post Keynesian economists’ ambitions to develop a paradigmatic alternative to neoclassical economics. Given the growing importance of methodological aspects in this discussion, this article addresses the differences of approach to economic theory between the fathers of the two most important strands in post Keynesian economics. We thus focus on Keynes’s criticism of Kalecki’s theory of the business cycle and the tensions between Keynes’s logical approach and Kaleki’s formal modeling. We show that in criticizing Kalecki’s theory, Keynes made use of the same methodological criticism (based on detecting logical fallacies in reasoning) he had employed to attack both the classical theory and contemporary “pseudo-mathematical” models. After illustrating these fundamental differences between Keynes and Kalecki about the proper way of doing economics, we draw some conclusions on the possible future evolution of post Keynesian economics.     

人民币汇率与股价动态相关性的研究——基于次贷危机前后的比较分析

本文基于2005年8月至2010年6月的月度数据,利用协整检验和向量误差修正模型研究了次贷危机发生前后人民币名义有效汇率与股票价格之间的联动关系。实证结果表明,次贷危机发生前中国股市与汇率之间存在正向的长期均衡关系,且两者之间在长期互为因果关系;在次贷危机发生后两者之间则是反向的长期均衡关系,股价波动在长期内是人民币名义有效汇率变动的单向Granger原因。最后本文基于人民币名义有效汇率的计算方法及其影响因素,利用资产组合平衡模型、国际贸易等相关理论对实证结果进行了分析。     

Engagement with the Mainstream in the Future of Post Keynesian Economics

This paper examines the reasons for the difficulties Post Keynesian economics has had in supplanting mainstream neoclassical theory and for its resulting marginalization. Three explanations are given: intellectual, sociological and political, where the latter two are largely responsible for the current relationship of Post Keynesian economics to the mainstream. The paper also reviews various strategies for improving the future of Post Keynesian economics, including a focus on methodological issues by maintaining an ‘open systems’ approach; a strategy of ‘embattled survival’; the development of a positive alternative to mainstream economics; a strategy of ‘constructive engagement’ with the mainstream; and a dialogue with policymakers. While the global financial crisis has increased the potential for constructive engagement with the mainstream, significant barriers remain to the effectiveness of this approach. The crisis has, however, enhanced the possibility of engaging directly with policymakers and gaining a greater role in management education.     

Inflation targets and endogenous wage markups in a New Keynesian model

Empirical contributions show that wage re-negotiations take place while expiring contracts are still in place. This is captured by assuming that nominal wages are pre-determined. As a consequence, wage setters act as Stackelberg leaders, whereas in the typical New Keynesian model the wage-setting rule implies that they play a Nash game. We present a DSGE New Keynesian model with pre-determined wages and money entering the representative household’s utility function and show how these assumptions are sufficient to identify an inverse relationship between the inflation target and the wage markup (and thus employment) both in the short and the long run. This is due to the complementary effects that wage claims and the inflation target have on money holdings. Model estimates suggest that a moderate long-run inflation rate generates non-negligible output gains.     

To Save or to Consume: Linking Growth Theory with the Keynesian Model

In the neoclassical growth theory, higher saving rate gives rise to higher output per capita. However, in the Keynesian model, higher saving rate causes lower consumption, which may lead to a recession. Students may ask, "Should we save or should we consume?" In most of the macroeconomics textbooks, economic growth and Keynesian economics are in separate, sometimes unsequential, chapters. The connection between the short run and the long run is not apparent. The author builds a bridge between the neoclassical growth theory and the Keynesian model. He links the Solow diagram and the IS-LM curves and depicts the short-run to long-run transition of the economy after changes in saving and other macroeconomic policies.     

Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances

In this paper we study the long-run determinants of current account balances in 21 OECD countries. We define long-run targets to determine whether actual current account balances are in line with their equilibrium values and find that, following the crisis, the United States, Japan and Spain returned towards their targets but that much remains to be done in Austria, Greece and Germany. Using linear and asymmetric panel VECM models, we find that the speed of convergence of external imbalances is much faster in deficit countries than in surplus ones. These results suggest that the adjustment of intra-European imbalances has to take place in both surplus and deficit countries and should be particularly substantial in the former. This revived the old debate of how to get the surplus countries to adjust.     

Monopoly Power and Stagflation

Post Keynesian economists have followed Joan Robinson's criticism of general equilibrium theory as abolishing history by allowing all contracts to be executed today for all future contingencies. This was the justification for the support of financial innovation to provide for the completeness of futures markets. The recent crisis has shown that force of history. Instead, many evolutionary and Keynesian economists have suggested the approach of cumulative causation as an approach that includes history and eschews equilibrium. This approach may provide a way to take history seriously in economic analysis.     

Vicarelli,Keynes, and the unstable nexus between investment,liquidity, and finance

The goal of this article is to reconstruct Keynes’s vision of the unstable nexus between investment, liquidity and finance, as set out by the Italian economist Fausto Vicarelli (1936–1986). As argued in the article, one of Vicarelli’s main contributions consists of explaining the inherent instability of financially sophisticated capitalist economies in terms of the interaction (and double dissociation) between investment, saving, and stock-holding decisions, within a Keynesian framework characterized by the presence of fundamental uncertainty. While Vicarelli’s interpretation of Keynes is best understood in the context of the post-Keynesian literature, its relevance goes beyond that, as its sheds light on current issues related to the post-2008 financial crisis and its policy implications.     

The control of inflation: A suggested policy

Much of the debate over the relative merits of Keynesian or Monetarist approaches to inflation policy is based on the presumption that the individual policy-maker's model of the economy is correct. It is argued here that this is an undesirable assumption, given that there is no concensus as to which of the models more accurately describes ‘reality’. The paper attempts to take this problem into account by suggesting a policy for the control of inflation which does not rely on the assumption that a specifically Keynesian, or Monetarist, model is the appropriate one.     

The macroeconomic risks of undesirably low inflation

This paper investigates the macroeconomic risks associated with undesirably low inflation using a medium-sized New Keynesian model. We consider different causes of persistently low inflation, including a downward shift in long-run inflation expectations, a fall in nominal wage growth, and a favorable supply-side shock. We show that the macroeconomic effects of persistently low inflation depend crucially on its underlying cause, as well as on the extent to which monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Finally, we discuss policy options to mitigate these effects.     

Revolution and counter-revolution: two views of unemployment

There is a view in economics that Keynes did not have a microeconomictheory underpinning his explanation of macroeconomics. For example,Friedman (1970) even goes so far as to maintain that pricesare arbitrary in Keyne's approach to economics. The conclusionwhich follows from this critique of Keynes is that Keynesianeconomics cannot explain the occurrence of unemployment in amarket economy except by invoking ad hoc assumptions. It isargued in this paper that the above critique is based on a misunderstandingof the focus of the Keynesian explanation of unemployment. Thefocus in Keynes is not choice, but exclusion from choice. Inconventional microeconomics, the concept of choice is not consideredproblematic. The observation that a particular action is takenis confused with the view that the action is voluntarily chosen.The Keynesian explanation entails an exploration of what theconcept of voluntary choice means.     

On the risk of long-run deflation

I determine expected long-run inflation in a two-state New Keynesian model driven by natural interest-rate uncertainty. Monetary policy switches between discretion in ‘normal times’ and zero-lower-bound episodes when it is passive. Long-run US inflation ranges from −1.8% to +1.2% p.a.     

Vicarelli’s Keynes and the New-Keynesian analytical method

This article provides a critical review of the foundations of the new Keynesian apparatus, to evaluate the actual strength of the Keynesian inheritance. As a reference of the Keynesian vision, Fausto Vicarelli’s recognition of the Keynesian message is adopted. The critical recognition of the new Keynesian methodology focuses on its analytical foundations, the recent extensions and on the criticality of its empirical performances and controls. The new Keynesian construction is shown to lack truly Keynesian roots in at least three key theoretical features: the role of the microfoundations, the stability of equilibrium, and expectations formation. The directions of an ongoing research narrowing the new Keynesian theoretical fracture from Keynesian economics are addressed.     

Urban Planning,Smart Growth,and Economic Calculation: An Austrian Critique and Extension

This paper takes a critical look at the Smart Growth movement and its reliance on traditional central planning to achieve its goals. Using statewide planning in Oregon, Florida, and Washington State as examples, the paper examines the planning focus of recent efforts to manage growth through land-use planning at the state level. It then applies the Austrian critique of economic planning to the contemporary Smart Growth movement in the United States as it is reflected in statewide planning laws. The calculation debate focused primarily on the technical question of whether bureaucratic planning could, in fact, achieve market outcomes. In the current debate over Smart Growth, planning combines political and bureaucratic decisionmaking. The political context in which planning decisions are made fundamentally alters the decision making process, shifting the emphasis to articulate knowledge as the foundation for policymaking. To be relevant in the current debate over planning, the calculation debate needs to be extended to include a political dimension to its critique of planning.