Security and the Subsurface: Natural Gas and the Visualisation of Possibility Spaces

ABSTRACT

Beneath the surface of the United Kingdom lies a sprawling natural gas infrastructure. Based on recent (2014/15) ‘follow the thing’ fieldwork conducted in the UK onshore gas industry, this paper explores the ways that dangers related to the subterranean circulation of natural gas come to be visualised, and how these visualisations make possible different security interventions. These practices are shown to be limited by the ground, which despite its enrolment as a security device conceals from view the shifting landscapes of risk that surround these gaseous movements. Drawing on Manuel DeLanda's concept of the possibility space, I provide a conceptual framework for attending to security’s visualisation practices, describing how attempts are made to overcome the subsurface obfuscation of natural gas. I argue that, rather than being understood as a process of circulatory ‘filtration’ or ‘maintenance’, security must instead be regarded as a series of transformative practices of ecological (re)organisation that are predicated upon the visualisation of entities’ spaces of possibility. In the process, I provide an account of how the three-dimensional geographies and materialities of gas circulations and their milieus are intimately tied up in their governance and politics.     

Liberalisation,Financial Risk,and Formal Financial Participation in Pakistan: Hyperinflationary Microeconomic Responses to Moderate Volatility in a Developing Economy

With formal financial inclusion much lower than its neighbours, Pakistan has been the focus of intensive efforts to ‘bank’ the ‘unbanked’. Yet, after a drop in deposits in the wake of Pakistan’s 2008 crisis, deposits are still struggling to return to their mid-1990s’ levels. Focusing on distortions in the banking sector, the Central Bank attributes this to ‘crowding out’ amidst a steep rise in the propensity to consume. This study draws on extensive fieldwork, identifying heightened financial risk driven by multifaceted monetary instability since the liberalisation of the rupee and of Pakistani markets. It proposes that heightened monetary risk has translated into a broad-based shift out of the rupee akin to hyperinflationary responses, but revealed in relatively moderate monetary conditions. It argues that, exposed to global markets, national currency itself has become a risky asset, pushing store-of-value and transactional holdings into unconventional liquid assets. This suggests that monetary stability, expressed in the currency itself and in broader pricing patterns in the economy, is key to the uptake of financial intermediation. The issue at the root of disintermediation in Pakistan, it is argued, is less one of ‘crowding out’ than of disruption to the role of national currency as money itself.     

Crusoe,Friday and the Raced Market Frame of Orthodox Economics Textbooks

ABSTRACT

‘Crusoe’ and ‘Friday’ signifiers necessarily evoke a world of racialised hierarchies. Economics textbooks are perhaps the sole remaining medium to simply wish away their resulting relations of power. These are the teaching aids that inspire students analytically to think of markets as pristine economic institutions and persuade them politically that they should want to will such institutions into being. Yet they all-too-often rely on the pedagogical device of the so-called Robinson Crusoe Economy, where the main characters from Defoe’s most famous novel are required to instinctively recognise their equality within voluntary contracting agreements so that each can act as the neoclassical homo economicus. In other words, economists’ Crusoe and Friday figures must behave antithetically to what has historically been implied by the ‘Crusoe’ and ‘Friday’ signifiers. But how can this be so, given how commonplace it was when Defoe’s characters were first introduced into economic theory in the 1850s to justify white settler colonialism on the grounds that ‘savage’ societies lacked the capacity to be self-governing? The raced market frame that emerged in practice from this assumption continues to be reproduced uncritically today by Crusoe’s and Friday’s presence in the textbook explanation of the most basic model of market exchange.     

China’s Contingencies: Critical Geopolitics,Chinese Exceptionalism and the Uses of History

This paper examines the intimate relationship between narratives emanating from China and their uses of Chinese history, and how such perspectives inform China’s geopolitical positioning and practices in lieu of its purported ‘rise’. Taking inspiration from the deconstructive impetus of critical geopolitics, this article contends that these historical claims to China’s rise constitute deterministic accounts, hinging on the notion of Chinese exceptionalism to provide discursive backing for a Sinocentric geopolitical order in the coming decades. This in turn downplays ‘alternative’ historiographies that can shed light on how the nature of China’s emergence may be more dependent on and shaped by the external environment than previously acknowledged. Building on the historical-geographical expositions related to the idea of contingency, this article demonstrates how China (whether it be in the past or present) cannot be seen as operating in a vacuum but has to constantly negotiate and adjust its strategy of engagements/interactions based on the specific demands imposed by world politics. Specifically, by elucidating these dimensions through cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan, it is argued that understanding China’s contingencies can raise important questions for us to critically appreciate the contextual actors, processes and relationships that differentially impact on China’s engagements in the world.     

Assessing measurement errors in the CDM research–innovation–productivity relationships

ABSTRACT

The Crépon-Duguet-Mairesse 1998 article, known as CDM, initiated a structural econometric framework to analyze the relationships among research, innovation and productivity, which has been estimated most generally on the basis of cross-sectional innovation survey-type data. Some econometric implementations of the CDM approach have suggested that such data give useful but imprecise measures of the innovation output (share of innovative sales), and to a lesser degree of the innovation input (R&D). These ‘measurement errors’ may result in attenuation biases of the estimated R&D and innovation impact elasticities in the two basic CDM ‘roots’ relations of R&D to innovation and innovation to productivity, as well as in the extended production function à la Griliches linking directly R&D to productivity. Using a panel of three waves of the French Community Innovation Survey (CIS), we assess these biases and the magnitude of the underlying measurement errors, assuming mainly that they are ‘white noise’ errors. We do so by comparing two pairs of usual panel estimators (Total and Between) in both the cross-sectional and time dimensions of the data (Levels and Differences). We find large measurement errors on innovation output in the innovation–productivity equation, resulting in large attenuation biases in the related elasticity parameter. We also find smaller but sizeable measurement errors on R&D, with significant attenuation biases in the corresponding elasticity estimates, in the R&D–innovation equation and the extended production function. Simulations suggest that the measurement errors on innovation and R&D are unaffected by similar measurement errors on the capital variable.     

Default correlation: rating,industry ripple effect,and business cycle

For a well-diversified bond portfolio, default risk over the investment horizon is known as the major risk and the risk is largely from correlated defaults. While plenty of theoretical work about default correlation has been developed, empirical studies on default correlation have not made much progress in the past two decades. In this paper, we fill this void in the literature by thoroughly investigating how default correlation changes across different bond ratings, over different time horizons, and across different industries over the sample period of 1970 to 2014. In particular, we examine how rating-based default correlations change before, during, and after recessions. More importantly, we reveal the ‘industry ripple effect’ that default correlations are low within upstream industries but become higher within downstream industries along the structure of the supply chain. Also, default correlations are relatively high between upstream industries and downstream industries.     

Who Counts in Crises? The New Geopolitics of International Migration and Refugee Governance

Recent migration ‘crises’ raise important geopolitical questions. Who is ‘the migrant’ that contemporary politics are fixated on? How are answers to ‘who counts as a migrant’ changing? Who gets to do that counting, and under what circumstances? This forum responds to, as well as questions, the current saliency of migration by examining how categories of migration hold geopolitical significance—not only in how they are constructed and by whom, but also in how they are challenged and subverted. Furthermore, by examining how the very concepts of ‘migrant’ and ‘refugee’ are used in different contexts, and for a variety of purposes, it opens up critical questions about mobility, citizenship and the nation state. Collectively, these contributions aim to demonstrate how problematising migration and its categorisation can be a tool of enquiry into other phenomena and processes.     

Global Warming, Endogenous Risk, and Irreversibility

This paper develops two-period analytical and numerical models to study the question: given a stock of greenhouse gases that poses a risk of future damages of unknown magnitude, and the possibility of learning about damages, how do sunk abatement capital and a nondegradable stock of greenhouse gases affect optimal first-period investment? We show that both affect investment, the former negatively and the latter positively. Additionally, endogenous risk – the risk of damages dependent on the stock of gases – results in an increase in optimal investment for any level of capital ‘sunkness’ or greenhouse gas degradability. Quantitatively, the effect of sunk capital is stronger than the effect of greenhouse gas irreversibility or that of endogenous risk.     

The effects of rent asymmetries in experimental auction markets

We report the results of twelve ‘double-auction’ market experiments designed to analyze the effects of asymmetric induced supply and demand configurations on the price convergence path toward a competitive equilibrium. The proposition (convergence bias) that prices tend to approach the competitive equilibrium from above (below) when consumer surplus is greater (less) than producer surplus cannot be rejected. We do, however, reject the proposition (convergence symmetry) that these convergence biases are of equal absolute magnitude. Excesses of producer over consumer surplus are found to have a more pronounced effect on the sequence of contract prices.     

A Geopolitical Analysis of Popular Songs in the CCTV Spring Festival Gala, 1983–2013

Based on the notions of ‘popular geopolitics’ and ‘practical geopolitics’, this article explores how China’s geopolitical strategies are represented and reproduced by the popular songs in the CCTV (China Central Television) Spring Festival Gala during the past thirty years (1983–2013). Drawing on the (con)textual and visual analysis of 539 popular songs, how geopolitical knowledges are represented and reproduced by these songs and how these songs are involved with China’s geopolitical strategies are analysed. The main argument of this article indicates that the official regulated popular songs in the annual Gala can be considered as important constitutions of China’s state apparatus which aim at propagandising and legitimating the official geopolitical strategies on both internal and international affairs. As research of the geopolitical engagements of China’s popular music, this article might also be read as a contribution to wider literatures on popular and practical geopolitics from a non-Western perspective.     

Capital-intensity biases in developing country technology choice

Under-employment in developing economies has been attributed to technological determinism or factor-price distortion. The present paper proposes a third view: biases towards capital- intensive techniques which stem from non-economic preferences on the part of engineers, designers, managers, and policy-makers. A fourth possible bias, consumer choice, is discussed and considered less significant. The paper emphasizes engineering biases based on the designers' maximization of ‘technical efficiency’ which is defined in a manner distinct from factor efficiency. Policy implications are that direct action to change attitudinal biases and stimulate development of labour-intensive techniques can contribute considerably to the optimal choice stimulus of corrected factor prices.     

Region,Regionness and Regionalism in Latin America: Towards a New Synthesis

Latin American regional governance today represents a conglomerate of commercial, political and trans-societal welfarist integration projects. In this overlapping and sometimes conflicting scenario what Latin Americanness should mean, and how integration projects should respond to current challenges of global political economy are being redefined. The focus of the paper is twofold: to better understand current regional transformations and to discuss what new developments mean for how we theorise non-European regionalism. Looking at the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas and the Union of South American Nations we ask: How are we to understand regional agreements that are grounded in different systems of rules, alternative ideas and motivations that contest ‘open regionalism’? We argue that Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA) represent different pathways to regional building, creating foundations for post-hegemonic and post-trade regional governance. We thus challenge New Regionalist approaches that assume regionalism as taking place within and modelled by neoliberal economics, establishing the debate around ‘old’ vs. ‘new’ regionalism. As these categories are limited in grasping the full meaning and implications of post-hegemonic regional orders, we discuss UNASUR and ALBA as ‘arenas for action’ to understand divergent practices, outcomes and types of regionness emerging in alternative regional spaces in South America.     

China,India and the US Rebalance to the Asia Pacific: The Geopolitics of Rising Identities

The US rebalance to the Asia Pacific is consistently interpreted as a response to China’s material rise. While not entirely incorrect, this assumption – derived from an overriding faith in the explanatory significance of relative state capabilities – fails to explain why rapidly rising others, most notably India, remain absent from regional US security discourse, and why a heavy US presence in Asia predates China’s ascent of the 1970s onwards. To address these problems and offer an improved explanation of what the rebalance is, how and why it has come about, and what it is designed to achieve within the context of China’s rise, this analysis draws from critical geopolitics and postcolonial theory. It argues that the rebalance is best conceived as the (re)articulation of historical discourses which construct certain foreign Others like China as challenges to the ontological American self, making the rebalance an attempt to pacify a particular rising identity as much as a rising state actor. The analysis is motivated in part by the question of how the rebalance is enabled in its current form. From here, the article addresses an increasing yet regressive tendency of International Relations theory to deny studies of the ‘how possible’ explanatory value, encouraging their marginalisation in favour of examinations into ‘why’ political decisions are made.     

Competition,strategic delegation and delay in technology adoption

This paper examines how strategic managerial delegation affects firms' timing of adoption of a new technology under different modes of product market competition. It demonstrates that strategic delegation has differential impacts on adoption dates under Cournot and Bertrand competitions. Strategic delegation with ‘own-performance’-based incentive schemes always leads to early adoption in markets with Bertrand competition compared to that under no-delegation, but not necessarily so in markets with Cournot competition. It also shows that under strategic delegation with ‘own-performance’-based incentive schemes, adoption occurs earlier (later) in markets with Cournot competition than in markets with Bertrand competition, if the degree of product differentiation is high (low). In contrast, under strategic delegation with ‘relative-performance’-based incentive schemes, adoption dates do not differ across markets with different modes of competition. It also analyses implications of firms' choice over types of managerial incentive schemes on the speed of diffusion of new technology.     

Kalecki on money and finance

It is argued that Kalecki had a greater appreciation of the role of the monetary sector than has been generally recognized, and that Kalecki presented ideas which can be seen as now embedded in the structuralist post Keynesian analysis of endogenous money and in the circuitist approach. Six key features of Kalecki's monetary analysis are identified. The paper outlines Kalecki's dismissal of the ‘Pigou effect’ and the ‘Keynes effect’, and then discussion the relationship between the ‘principle of increasing risk’ and the nature of the supply of credit. It discusses interest determination in Kalecki's writings and the manner in which he distinguished different types of money.     

Management Behaviour in Vietnamese Commercial Banks

This study identifies managerial behaviour in Vietnamese banks between the years 2000 and 2014, based on the managerial framework of banks, as identified by Rossi et al. ( 2009 ). This framework is built on the interrelationships between efficiency, risk, capital and diversification. This study uses the Z‐score to measure insolvency risk, the SFA to estimate cost efficiency, the ratio of total equity to total assets to capture bank capital and the HHI index to measure the diversification of revenue and earning assets. The results from the 3SLS estimator indicate that revenue diversification has an insignificant impact on insolvency risk, capital ratio and cost efficiency, but earning assets diversification has a negative effect on these three variables, supporting ‘classical diversification’, ‘economic capital’ and ‘monitoring’ behaviours. Moreover, a decline in cost efficiency leads to a rise in insolvency risk, implying ‘bad management’ behaviour; an increase in risk results in a reduction in cost efficiency, indicating ‘bad luck’ behaviour; and a reduction in capital ratio in the poorly capitalised banks leads to a growth in risk, suggesting ‘moral hazard’ behaviour. The results remain strongly robust when using an alternative risk measurement (the loan loss provision ratio) and an alternative SFA model.     

Redefining Parent's Unpaid Labour: Distinguishing Errands from Housework for Targeted Mental Health Policy

Studies of the association between unpaid housework and wellbeing, especially for parents, has produced either negative or inconclusive results in previous studies. One potential oversight is that ‘housework’ often includes activities with a counteracting effect on mental health. By employing the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) data set that differentiates ‘housework’ from more routine tasks included in the ‘errands’ variable I illustrate the difference in the pattern of how these variables are linked to parents' mental health. By identifying specific groups of unpaid tasks that are most detrimental to mental health, policymakers can prioritise these areas, ensuring that negative associations are not wrongly attributed to all housework activities.     

Game,set and match: the favourite-long shot bias in tennis betting exchanges

We test for the existence of Favourite-Longshot Bias (FLB) in tennis betting exchanges. Despite these being order-driven markets, with no direct participation from bookmakers, we have found very similar results to those obtained by Lahvi?ka (2014) for bookmakers’ betting markets: the bias is stronger in matches between lower-ranked players, in later round matches and in high profile tournaments. This suggests that bookmakers’ adjustments to respond to informed betting are not the main driver of FLB. The varying magnitude of the bias across different types of event in the main market also weakens arguments linking FLB to gamblers’ risk preferences, and suggests the need to consider the microstructure features of the market together with the cognitive biases highlighted in the behavioural finance literature.     

Engines of Growth in China: The Limits of Informal Institutions

Abstract:

Since the 1978 reforms, China has experienced rapid economic and social development. GDP growth has been in the double digits on average yearly, creating the fastest sustained economic growth recorded by a major economy in history. Not only did this transform the economy and society at large, China reached important milestones in terms of reducing poverty and creating prosperity in a short period of time. This article uses the conceptual framework of new institutional economics to examine China’s economic growth and how growth has been achieved largely by ‘informal institutions’ that are grounded in culture, customs, and private interactions that emerge spontaneously. The trajectory by which these informal institutions left their imprint on China’s complex economic landscape and how they can constrain future economic growth are also of central importance. After examining decentralization and risk management practices, property rights, and the legal system, we emphasize the importance of creating formal institutions necessary for long-term growth, most importantly innovation. Preliminary evidence shows total factor productivity is tapering off which may reflect the constraints of China’s institutional environment. This ought to be reversed if China is to enjoy long-term sustained growth.