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1.
    
Based on a growing body of experimental and other studies, two recent economics survey articles claim to find “strong evidence” that women are “fundamental[ly]” more risk-averse than men. Yet, much of the literature fails to clearly distinguish between differences that hold at the individual level (categorical differences between men and women) and patterns that appear only at the aggregate level (statistically detectable differences in men's and women's distributions, such as different means). There is a resulting problem of possible misinterpretation, as well as a dearth of appropriate attention to substantive significance. Additionally, one of the two surveys suffers from problems of statistical validity, possibly due to confirmation bias. Applying appropriate, expanded statistical techniques to the same data, this study finds substantial similarity and overlap between the distributions of men and women in risk taking, and a difference in means that is not substantively large.  相似文献   

2.
    
This paper re-examines the results in Machnes (1993). When a risk-averse firm faces both uncertain demand and uncertain fixed costs, the Arrow-Pratt theory of decreasing absolute risk aversion may be too weak to yield unambiguous comparative statics. Herein, it is shown that the stronger notions of risk behavior proposed by Ross (1981) and Kimball (1993) are useful in providing intuitive results in this context.  相似文献   

3.
Summary. This paper defines decreasing absolute risk aversion in purely behavioral terms without any assumption of differentiability and shows that a strictly increasing and risk averse utility function with decreasing absolute risk aversion is necessarily differentiable with an absolutely continuous derivative. A risk averse utility function has decreasing absolute risk aversion if and only if it has a decreasing absolute risk aversion density, and if and only if the cumulative absolute risk aversion function is increasing and concave. This leads to a characterization of all such utility functions. Analogues of these results also hold for increasing absolute and for increasing and decreasing relative risk aversion.Received: 31 January 2003, Revised: 15 January 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D81.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author in his individual capacity and should not in any way be attributed to Morgan Stanley or to Lars Tyge Nielsen as a representative, officer, or employee of Morgan Stanley.  相似文献   

4.
This paper presents a characterization of weak risk aversion in terms of preference for sure diversification. Similarly, we show that strong risk aversion can be characterized by weakening preference for diversification,as introduced by Dekel (Econometrica 57:163,1989), in what we call preference for strong diversification. We are grateful to Jean-Yves Jaffray, Peter Wakker and anonymous reference for very helpful suggestions and comments.  相似文献   

5.
    
This study estimates the demand system using Japanese micro data and calculates the cost of living index (COLI) to assess the substitution bias in the Consumer Price Index. The estimated bias during the sample period of 1982–2000 is about 0.06 percentage points, which is larger than the estimates calculated from a superlative index. The difference between the COLI and a superlative index can be explained with the upward movements of the average utility level in Japan, since the cost of living for the rich has grown more rapidly than that for the poor.  相似文献   

6.
Risk preference and indirect utility in portfolio-choice problems   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We consider a portfolio-choice problem with one risky and one safe asset, where the utility function exhibits decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA). We show that the indirect utility function of the portfolio-choice problem need not exhibit DARA. However, if the (optimal) marginal propensity to invest is positive for both assets, which is true when the utility function exhibits nondecreasing relative risk aversion, then the DARA property is carried over from the direct to the indirect utility function.  相似文献   

7.
    
Making use of a subjective performance appraisal system, it is a well-established fact that many supervisors tend to assess the employees too good (leniency bias) and that the appraisals hardly vary across employees of a certain supervisor (centrality bias). We explain these two biases in a simple theoretical model and discuss determinants of the size of the biases.  相似文献   

8.
Estimation of the inputs is the main problem when applying portfolio analysis, and Markov regime-switching models have been shown to improve these estimates. We investigate whether the use of two-regime models remains superior across a range of values of risk aversion and transaction costs, in the presence of skewness and kurtosis and no short sales. Our results for US data suggest that, due to differences in their risk preferences and transactions costs, most retail investors may prefer to use one-regime models, while investment banks may prefer to use two-regime models.  相似文献   

9.
The implications of supermodularity conditions in comparative-static analysis are analyzed for a generalized version of the separable-effort representation of a firm facing stochastic prices and a stochastic technology. Previous analysis is generalized in two ways. General risk-averse, as opposed to expected-utility, preferences are considered. The stochastic technology is represented by an Arrow–Debreu state-space representation. It is shown that results familiar from the theory of the price-taking firm in the absence of risk generalize to the uncertain case.   相似文献   

10.
    
The literature on entrepreneurship has suggested that an individual’s entrepreneurial intention depends on three types of factor: personal characteristics, the individual’s expertise and professional background, and external factors. Our study investigates how corruption, an external factor, and risk aversion, a personal characteristic, may simultaneously affect individuals’ entrepreneurial intentions. With data on 76 203 individuals in 53 countries, our estimation results indicate that risk aversion decreases the individual’s probability of having an entrepreneurial intention by 6.67 percentage points. In addition, an increase in 1 SD in the perceived level of corruption in a country decreases the individual’s probability of having an entrepreneurial intention by 0.96 percentage points.  相似文献   

11.
This paper considers a relationship between investment behavior and an agent’s preferences in a stochastic one-sector growth model with irreversible investment. Further, it explores the effect of uncertainty in investment policies by using a non-expected utility function. Since uncertainty has an impact on investment policies not only through an option value but also through a risk-adjusted time preference rate in a general equilibrium framework, it is significant to distinguish the two preference parameters of the agent. While the previous partial equilibrium models with irreversible investment have exhibited a negative relationship between the desired capital stock and uncertainty, this paper implies that it is possible to generate a positive relationship for the appropriate parameters. This shows that the results of Hartman and Abel have been robust even in a general equilibrium model.  相似文献   

12.
    
We provide evidence on the effect of elementary index choice on inflation measurement in the euro area. Using scanner data for 15,844 individual items from 42 product categories and 10 euro area countries, we compute product category level elementary price indexes using eight different elementary index formulas. Measured inflation outcomes of the different index formulas are compared with the Fisher ideal index to quantify elementary index bias. We have three main findings. First, elementary index bias is quite variable across product categories, countries and index formulas. Second, a comparison of elementary index formulas with and without expenditure weights shows that a shift from price only indexes to expenditure weighted indexes would entail at the product level multiple percentage points differences in measured price changes. And finally, we show that elementary index bias is quantitatively more important than upper level substitution bias.  相似文献   

13.
  总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
A theory is proposed in which preferences are conditional on reference points. It is related to Tversky and Kahneman’s reference-dependent preference theory, but is simpler and deviates less from conventional consumer theory. Preferences conditional on any given reference point satisfy conventional assumptions. Apart from a continuity condition, the only additional restriction is to rule out cycles of pairwise choice. The theory is consistent with observations of status quo bias and related effects. Reference points are treated as subject to change during the course of trade. The implications of endogeneity of reference points for behaviour in markets are investigated.  相似文献   

14.
Seeun Jung 《Applied economics》2013,45(28):2924-2938
Individual risk attitudes are frequently used to predict decisions regarding education. However, using risk attitudes as a control variable for decisions about education has been criticized because of the potential for reverse causality. Causality between risk aversion and education is unclear, and disentangling the different directions it may run is difficult. In this study, we make the first attempt to investigate the causal effects of education on risk aversion by examining the British education reform of 1972, which increased the duration of compulsory schooling from age 15 to age 16. Using regression discontinuity design, we find that this additional year of schooling increases the level of risk aversion, which is contrary to previous findings in the literature, and we also find that this result is particularly strong for individuals with less education. This positive causal effect of education on risk aversion might alleviate concerns regarding the endogeneity/reverse causality issue when using risk aversion as an explanatory variable for decisions about education; the sign would remain credible because the coefficients are underestimated.  相似文献   

15.
This paper proposes a new interpretation for the precautionary saving motive: when future income is uncertain, agents increase saving in order to cause a reduction in the disutility due to uncertainty. Furthermore, the paper shows that the usual necessary and sufficient condition for precautionary saving is the condition ensuring this effect to occur and gives new insights into the relationship between risk aversion indexes and precautionary saving.   相似文献   

16.
    
Preferences are defined over payoffs that are contingent on a finite number of states representing a horse race (Knightian uncertainty) and a roulette wheel (objective risk). The class of scale‐invariant (SI) ambiguity‐averse preferences, in a broad sense, is uniquely characterized by a multiple‐prior utility representation. Adding a weak certainty‐independence axiom is shown to imply either unit coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA) toward roulette risk or SI maxmin expected utility. Removing the weak independence axiom but adding a separability assumption on preferences over pure horse‐race bets leads to source‐dependent constant‐relative‐risk‐aversion expected utility with a higher CRRA assigned to horse‐race uncertainty than to roulette risk. The multiple‐prior representation in this case is shown to generalize entropic variational preferences. An appendix characterizes the functional forms associated with SI ambiguity‐averse preferences in terms of suitable weak independence axioms in place of scale invariance.  相似文献   

17.
    
In this article we study a risk-minimizing hedge ratio with futures contracts, where the risk of the hedged portfolio is measured through a spectral risk measure (SRM), thus incorporating the degree of agent’s risk aversion. We empirically estimate the optimal hedge ratio (OHR) using a long time series of UK and US equity indices, the EURUSD and EURGBP exchange rates and four liquid commodities (Brent crude oil, corn, gold and copper), to represent different asset classes. Comparing the results with common OHRs (such as the minimum variance and the minimum expected shortfall), we find that the agent’s risk aversion has a material impact, and should not be ignored in risk management.  相似文献   

18.
This paper explores the research behind the wage gap between men and women, the reasons for and extent of the gap, and strategies for dealing with gender pay discrepancies. Historically, gender discrimination was the traditional and easy explanation for pay discrepancies, but more aggressive enforcement of equal pay legislations has virtually diminished the validity of rationalizing the existence of pay differences solely on gender. Statistical data surrounding the pay gap point to other factors as more causal instruments that sustain and perpetuate the gap in spite of more than forty years of enforcement of equal pay legislations. The choices we make seem to predict and explain current wage gaps better than blatant gender discrimination does, and policies directed at improving those choices appear to be better strategic tools in closing the wage gap.  相似文献   

19.
    
Existing models in the parimutuel betting literature typically explain betting data by either assuming a single, representative bettor with certain risk preferences or by assuming that a number of risk neutral bettors compete strategically within a game theoretic framework. We construct a theoretical framework of parimutuel markets in which we model both strategic interaction and individual bettor risk preferences, distinguishing between sophisticated insiders and recreational outsiders. We solve this model analytically for the optimal insider betting amount in a static symmetric Nash equilibrium. A new data set of 126 million individual horse race bets in New Zealand from 2006 to 2014 allows us to calibrate the model. We find that insiders (those betting $100 or more) outperform outsiders by 7.5% in terms of realized returns. The best fit of the model to the data is obtained when insiders are assumed to be risk neutral and to have an information advantage of 0.08 in probability terms. This finding provides empirical support for the common assumption of risk neutrality in strategic interaction models of parimutuel betting.  相似文献   

20.
    
The author defines asset manager career risk as the risk that asset owners terminate an existing manager due to an extended period of underperformance relative to a benchmark or peer group even though the manager has skill (defined here as positive information ratio). The author shows that myopic loss aversion gives rise to career risk even for skilled asset managers and that the current industry practice of quarterly or annual performance evaluations puts even the most skilled asset managers at risk of undue termination. The author also investigates how a reduction of tracking error leads to a reduction of career risk even though this comes at the expense of lower long-term performance. Finally, the author computes the minimum evaluation period needed to reduce career risk for asset managers of different skill levels.  相似文献   

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