城镇居民教育收益率的地区差异及其解释

利用中国社会科学院经济研究所"中国城乡居民收入分配"课题组1995年和2002年的家庭抽样调查数据,本文使用分层线性模型重新估计了1995年、2002年我国居民的教育收益率,得到了不同于OLS估计的结果:(1)我国城镇居民教育收益率的地区差异很大,差异主要来源于省内各城市之间,来源于省间的差别并不显著;(2)计算了省内城市劳动力市场化程度对当地教育收益率的边际影响,发现劳动力市场的发育确实有利于提高教育收益率,而且劳动力市场化程度的差异在一定程度上为各地教育收益率的差异提供了解释。     

中国农村人力资本收益率研究

本项研究依据的数据资料是“中国人力资本投资与城乡就业相关性研究”课题组在 2 0 0 2年 7月至 2 0 0 3年 1月对全国 1 5省市进行的问卷调查。在对数据进行分析的基础上 ,使用计量经济学的相关模型估计了中国农村不同形式人力资本收益率。     

基于双胞胎数据的教育收益率估计

本文利用从人口抽样调查中生成的16—35岁的双胞胎数据,采用OLS和双胞胎组内差分法估计了教育的收益率及其异质性。主要得到两个结果:第一,在没有纠正测量误差的情况下,混合OLS估计的教育收益率为14%,而组内差分估计仅为4%左右。参照相关研究对结果进行一个简单的修正后,差分估计值也不到6%。这意味着用OLS会高估教育的收益率。第二,那些能力越高、家庭背景越好的个体,越有可能获得更多的教育,同时从教育中获得的收益也越多。     

教育收益率性别差异的实证分析

很多研究均发现女性的教育收益率显著高于男性。利用广西的调查数据,发现中国的教育收益率存在性别差异,女性的中等教育收益率高于男性,男性的高等教育收益率高于女性。进一步的分析表明,工资的性别歧视、就业的性别歧视以及中等教育效益的性别差异是导致中国教育收益率存在以上性别差异的主要原因。     

中国省际资本回报率与投资过度

本文在现有宏观层面测算资本回报率的方法的基础上进行改进,将风险因素纳入基本模型探索消除不确定性的资本回报率的测算方法,并进一步分两个层次考察我国是否存在投资过度。通过采用1993—2013年中国29个省份的面板数据进行实证研究,可以发现:(1)消除不确定性的资本回报率指标优于资本回报率指标;(2)省际的消除不确定性的资本回报率处于8%到15%的区间范围;(3)区域间消除不确定性的资本回报率的时间趋势一致,但绝对大小存在显著差异,随着经济发展阶段不断上升其表现出明显的"倒U型"特征;(4)中国的投资过度问题亟需重视,其中河北等9省已出现第二层次投资过度,北京等12省已接近第二层次投资过度的临界水平,余下8省没有达到第二层次的投资过度。     

城镇居民教育收益率及其分布特征

本文以中国居民收入分配课题组2002年城镇住户调查数据为基础,利用分位回归分析方法讨论城镇居民教育收益率与收入条件分布之间的关联形式。本文的基本结论表明,在收入条件分布较高的分位点上,所对应的教育收益率相对较低,即教育收益率随着收入等级的提高而下降;另一方面,收入函数中引入不同类型的控制变量将会影响到平均的教育收益率估计水平,这也在一定程度上影响到教育收益率的分布特征。就方法论来说,分位回归分析可能为教育收益率估计中如何剔除能力因素所造成的偏差提供了一种解决办法;就政策意义而言,本文的结论表明,教育扩展可能更有利于低收入人口的收入的增长。当然,在施加不同类型控制变量的过程中,我们也发现就业特征对于教育收益率具有非常重要的影响,这不仅表明我国劳动力市场具有分割特性,也可能意味着就业或职业获得成为收入差距扩张的重要因素。     

Rates of Return to Four‐Year University Education: An Application of Regression Discontinuity Design

It is invariably difficult to estimate the rate of return to university education, because of the problem of omitted variable bias. Using a regression discontinuity design, we estimate the effect of a four‐year university education on earnings, and we explore the pathways through which the effect operates. Our estimation exploits the centralized, score‐based college/university admission system in China, where the minimum scores required for university admission are externally determined by the provincial governments. Our findings suggest that being eligible for four‐year university admission implies a sizable increase in earnings. The payoff can be attributed to the prolonged length of education and improvements in education quality, although the quality effects cannot be precisely estimated.     

中国利率动态模型研究

本文对中国两种高度相关的利率的动态行为进行了考察和分析.第一种利率是政府利率,由中央银行决定和颁布,可以用一个单纯的可变波动率跳跃过程进行描述.我们给出了跳跃强度的估计,并且通过不同的检验证明它是稳定可靠的.跳跃幅度能够满足确保利率有合理范围的条件,并且体现出一定的经济周期内涵.第二种利率根据政府债券的交易价格利用样本估计法计算的市场利率.我们对市场利率的Vasicek模型和CIR模型进行了实证比较.检验结果表明简单的Vasicek模型表现最好.本文还对由于单位根问题引起的估计偏误问题进行了分析,一般方法和GPH方法都无法拒绝单位根假设.     

ICT and Growth: The Role of Rates of Return and Capital Prices

We revisit the widely discussed contribution of investment in ICT to economic growth, focusing on differences in productivity and quality of ICT across countries and time. In a growth accounting approach, we look at the way rates of return and rates of asset price decline measure these aspects. Conducting a sensitivity analysis with data from the EU KLEMS database for the years 1990–2007, we introduce a constant rate of return and a constant rate of ICT price decline. Both alternative measurements somewhat downplay the role investment played relative to growth in multifactor productivity in the U.K. and the U.S. during 1995–2000. Moreover, we show that more than half of the ICT contribution to labor productivity growth results from changes in capital quality and composition rather than from quantity.     

Private and Social Rates of Return to Secondary and Higher Education in New Zealand: Evidence from the 1991 Census

Abstract
With significant increases in the demand for higher education in New Zealand since the 1980s, the question of the size of the returns to investments in education has been of significant interest. Despite this interest, studies have been few in number and based on aggregated measures from the 1960s to 1981. This study is the first to utilise micro-level data from the 1991 New Zealand Census. The study employs and compares the conventional methods of regression earnings functions, and internal rate of return analyses of private and social rates of return. The results indicate that returns to education are economically significant, at rates that are higher for females, even when adjusting for hours of work and female labour force participation differences. The returns are subject to diminishing returns, and social rates of return are 1 per cent to 3 per cent lower than private returns—a result that is consistent with those of OECD countries, but among the smaller differences by international standards .     

Real Rates of Return in Electricity Supply: New South Wales,Tasmania and Victoria*

This paper uses a newly developed economic return model to estimate the real (inflation adjusted) costs of supply, and rates of return, for the electricity systems in three States over very long time periods. It is shown that because of a combination of public ownership and the use of historical cost accounts, the real return on capital tends to fall with the onset of rapid inflation such as occurred in the mid 1970s In NSW in particular the rapid growth in demand for electricity in the 1970s due to falling real electricity prices and considerable increases in other energy prices has given rise to a major investment program and rapidly developing excess capacity. Higher real electricity prices in the 1980s, combined with the economic slump of 1982, resulted in low or negative growth rates in demand Much of the boom I bust mentality evident in all three States may have been avoided or ameliorated had the electrical supply authorities been required to earn even a very modest real rate of return of (say) 4 or more per cent p.a. which is considerably below the (pre-tax) return earned in the corporate sector.     

Rates of Return and Early Retirement Disincentives: Evidence from a German Pension Reform

To counteract the financial pressure emerging in aging societies, statutory pension schemes are undergoing fundamental reforms in many Western countries. Starting with cohort 1937, Germany introduced permanent pension deductions for early retirement. This study examines the profitability of pension contributions against the background of this reform for cohorts 1935–1945. Internal rates of return (IRR) are used to measure the profitability. For men, the IRR declines from 2.4% to 1.2% and for women from 5.2% to 3.7%. The results suggest that the majority of the trend, about 75–80%, is caused by increased pension contributions and not by the reform.     

Rates of Return on Plant and Machinery in the Regions of the UK, 1968-1991

This paper provides an update of an earlier study undertaken by one of the authors and extends the analysis by modelling the determinants of rates of return, using an appropriate cointegration based approach. A second major extension was to test formally whether rates of return have been converging over time. The results from testing for convergence show that there is little evidence of catch-up, either because long-run convergence already existed during this period, or because there was divergence (away from the East Anglia\South East region). With regard to what determines rates of return, the peripheral regions were generally more responsive to changes in total factor productivity than were the 'southern' regions. Similarly, 'capital deepening' resulted in larger responses in the peripheral regions. In contrast, the impact of a change in labour's share in value-added on rates of return had no obvious spatial pattern. Our results also indicated that the largest source of interregional differences in rates of return was regional differences in the underlying determinants, rather than differences in model elasticities per se. Of the changes in the underlying determinants, increases in capital deepening over the period were predominant.     

个人所得税税率的国际比较及其对中国的启示——以美英两国为样本

20世纪80年代以来,以“降低税率、减少级距”为主要内容的个人所得税税率改革已是大势所趋,中国目前的个人所得税税率未能很好地起到调节收入的作用,我们可以借鉴美英两国个人所得税税率改革过程的经验,结合中国国情,通过对免征额和初始税率、最高边际税率累进数及管理成本等因素的确定,选择有波动的减速累进路线。     

再谈农民致富——主编寄语

农民致富问题是一项极其复杂的系统工程,用千把字的寄语来谈,显然很难谈清楚,所以还须再谈。这次寄语我想集中谈一下公平问题。曾几何时,让中国农民强制接受剪刀差的不公平,接受城乡二元结构的不公平。作为中国人口占绝对优势的农民,长期以来,被排除在中国现代化强国运动之外,基本上处于中国社会的边缘,尽管中国农民通过农业积累和工农产品剪刀差为中国现代化建设提供了人才和资金。但现代化建设的成果,主要体现在城市,主要倾向于城市居民。而农民所从事的农业作为一项产业,始终处于弱势地位。不但如此,一系列的社会制度,把城市和农村区隔为…