STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND GROWTH IN CHINA UNDER ECONOMIC REFORMS: PATTERNS,CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS

This paper investigates the patterns, causes, and implications of China's structural change and its contribution to China's regional growth. Among many other findings, our regression results show that conditional convergence exists across different regions in China. Regional structural change has a convergence effect and regional openness facilitates regional structural change. Structural shocks and structural transformation had the opposite effect on China's interregional convergence during the 1990s, though the combined effect of overall structural change is a convergence effect. We also find that Chinese regions rely more heavily on structural change for labor productivity growth as the economy evolves. In summary, the results of our empirical analysis support the hypothesis underlying the theoretical model of this paper.     

Analyzing China's productivity growth: Evidence from manufacturing industries

This article examines the growth attributes of manufacturing industries in China for the sample period of 1999–2007. The output growth of manufacturing industries classified under four groups and four regions is decomposed into four components of input growth, scale effect, technical progress, and technical efficiency change. A stochastic frontier model is applied to the translog production function to estimate technical efficiency. Despite the conventional argument that input growth and technical progress are important factors to output growth, the empirical findings show a significant scale effect but a weak technical efficiency change. The contribution to growth from labor has been replaced by human and physical capitals. Structural transformation in the industrial sector is evident, so as regional imbalances.     

Modelling metropolitan population growth and change: The IIPS simulator

This paper describes selected aspects of a large scale urban simulation project (IIPS). Emphasis is on design and empirical evaluation of a model of metropolitan population growth and change. Functions for determining ‘behavior’ of fertility and net-migration are specified and an important linkage between the IIPS population and land use models is illustrated. In a final section, the reader is introduced to a relatively unique computer sumulation-supervisor.     

建设用地区域配置效率评价研究

本文基于经济学上的择优分配原理,结合建设用地开发利用的特点,提出了建设用地区域配置效率的内涵及其计量评价模型,并对中国大陆近十年的建设用地区域配置效率进行了实证评价。结果表明,建设用地的区域配置效率可以界定为建设用地用于不同地区开发建设时所获得的整体利用效率,其高低可以以不同地区建设用地边际产出差异之大小来衡量。实证评价的结果也显示,近十年来中国大陆的建设用地区域配置效率经历了一个波动变化阶段。为优化配置效率,今后应提升低效用地区域的土地边际产出,并考虑将更多的新增建设用地配置于边际产出效率较高的地区。     

基于用地效率分析的城市区域空间结构极化模型及空间发展战略

不同规模的城市其用地效率具有一定的差异性.本文通过对中国660余个不同规模城市的用地效率分析,在总结和分析了传统城市区域空间结构基本理论和模型的基础上,提出基于城市用地效率分析的城市区域空间结构极化模型.通过理论与实证分析表明,城市发展的方向一极是大型化,发展成为特大城市或超大城市(人口100万-400万);另一极是小...     

土地财政与最优城市规模

土地是有限的,完全依靠土地收入的发展模式是不可持续的。本文主要考察土地财政作为地方政府的一种融资渠道,城市建设用地规模的使用是否与城市人口规模的增加相协调,是否存在过度扩张城市面积促进地区经济发展的现象。为了分析土地出让收入(地租)、公共品供给以及城市规模之间的关系,本文以乔治亨利定理为基础,并引入林达尔均衡条件建立起最优城市人口密度理论模型。采用1999～2009年31个省面板数据对中国城市成本收益模型进行计量分析,结果表明全国26个省低于估算的最优城市人口密度,验证了中国存在城市面积的扩张与人口的增加不协调发展的情况。     

土地财政、城市产出效率与全要素生产率增长差异

在国有土地使用权大量出让、财政收入快速增长的背景下,考量城市面积的快速扩张对经济增长的贡献及建设用地利用效率的高低具有重要意义。土地是经济发展中的重要生产要素,由于土地位置的固定性使得不同地区采取不同的土地财政政策,这致使城市产出效率和全要素生产率增长存在较大差异。因此对Solow模型进行扩展,使用我国1999—2009年数据,运用Malmquist指数分析方法对城市产出效率进行了实证研究。结果表明:全国各省市全要素生产率虽都呈现出上涨的趋势,但每个省市都存在土地使用效率不高问题。通过区域划分估算全国各省市全要素生产率增长情况,并使用分位数回归法分析各地区不同的增长方式,并针对土地财政、城市产出效率与全要素生产率增长差异间存在的问题提出政策建议。     

基于城镇空间区域扩展分析的城市化进程评估

城市扩展的空间数据是评估城市化进程的一个重要指标。文章以福清市为例 ,探讨了利用城市发展的空间数据研究城市化进程的原理和方法。文章综合应用遥感和地理信息系统技术分别提取了福清市 1991年和 1996年的城镇用地信息 ,发现在这 5年中 ,福清市城镇用地面积增加了 1 2倍。经过对城镇区域扩展进行空间分析 ,并结合社会经济统计数据进行逐步回归和主成分分析 ,进一步查明了福清市城镇化进程的驱动力主要为工业大发展和非农业人口的增加。但是 ,房地产业的兴起和交通运输业的发展也在某些乡镇和地区起了重要的作用。综合多因子分析表明 ,福清市城市化水平的提高主要得益于乡村的城镇化 ,而不是中心城区的贡献。总的看来 ,福清市城市化的水平明显落后于经济发展和城镇空间扩展的速度 ,大力发展第三产业是提高福清市城市化水平的主要途径。     

Has agricultural labor restructuring improved agricultural labor productivity in China? A decomposition approach

This paper presents a framework for analyzing the changes in agricultural labor productivity with regards to the structural, land intensity, and land productivity effects. This approach allows for the residual-free decomposition of data from different levels of aggregation. The logarithmic mean Divisia index was applied for the analysis and a data envelopment analysis model was constructed to identify potential gains in agricultural labor productivity due to the optimization of input use and output production. The proposed approach was applied to the case of China over the period of 1997–2017. Province-level data were used to identify the major driving factors behind agricultural labor productivity change. Land productivity change appeared to be the major source of agricultural labor productivity gains in China. The structural change was rather negligible, suggesting that the reallocation of the agricultural labor force did not add to the agricultural labor productivity growth in China. A frontier analysis indicated that agricultural labor productivity could increase by some 45% on average in case full technical efficiency is achieved.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THE REFORM PERIOD

We identify some empirical evidences for the structural changes in the determinants of regional growth, disparities and the convergence speed to the per capita GDP equilibrium during the reform period of 1978–1998 in China. We estimate a growth regression model by augmenting the Solow model with a provincial-level panel data set. The existence of conditional convergence is confirmed throughout the reform period, but the convergence speed is faster in the 1990s than the early reform period. Agro-industry-based rural development contributed to regional growth and eased interregional disparities in the early reform period. Foreign capital inflows took a significant leading role for regional growth during the 1990s, but aggravated interregional disparities. Education and non-state enterprises were among the other keys for regional growth throughout the reform period. These results implies that for achieving sustainable and balanced growth in future, it is essential to extend foreign capital investment to the interior regions, in association with further development of human capital resource and non-state local enterprises.     

China's total factor productivity estimates by region, investment sources and ownership

This paper constructs China national and provincial physical capital and human capital for the period 1984–2006. The estimation of physical capital is extended to the use of sources of fund and ownership of fund. The growth accounting framework is used to calculate the output, input and total factor productivity growth rates. The relative variance method is used to compare the relative importance to output growth by input growth and productivity growth. The empirical findings show that although output growth in post-reform China has been contributed much by growth in total factor productivity, output volatility has relied more on input growth, and TFP growth has not been supported by complementary changes. There are regional differences when looking at the performance of individual growth rates.     

城市理性增长理论与实践研究进展

城市理性增长强调经济、社会和环境的可持续共同发展,已成为美国城市发展的行动纲领。系统地总结了城市理性增长的理论模型,美国城市理性增长在土地利用变更、社区复兴、住宅偏好及选择、耕地保护与基础设施建设等领域的实践效果,以及理性增长的中国化进程。     

A model for analyzing the external effects of new towns on regional development

Title VII of the New Communities and Urban Growth Act of 1970 enables the Department of Housing and Urban Development to guarantee bonds used to finance New Town development by the private sector. Large scale New Town development may drastically affect regional land use patterns. New Towns may siphon resources away from central cities, reducing their tax base, increasing their ghettos and accelerate urban decay. The model proposed in this paper is designed to analyze the effect of subsidized New Towns on a region's growth. The output of the model would enable the policy makers to expand their decision horizon in evaluating bond guarantee applications. The model is composed of four integrated submodels; a national dynamic input-output model, an interregional forecasting model, a Lowry type land use model and a financial evaluation model.     

我国货币财政政策存在区域效应的实证分析

货币财政政策是现代国家干预经济的两个最重要的宏观调控政策，关于它们的研究文献数不胜数，但是长期以来一直没有对两政策实施后的区域效应给予足够的重视。本文结合目前我国东中西三大经济地带的经济发展已经存在明显差距的现实，通过两地区的简约化模型对1978-2004年间我国货币政策与财政政策在东部和中西部两个样本地区的作用进行了实证分析，结果表明，我国货币财政政策确实存在区域不对称效应，特别是货币政策，具有明显的区域影响差异。     

我国普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性研究

本文利用1997年到2009年全国以及各地区的房地产面板数据,借鉴蛛网模型的相关理论,构建供给与需求的联立方程,选择固定效应IV估计法拟合面板联立方程模型,对普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国的普通商品住房市场处于不稳定状态,普通商品住房当期及滞后期的价格、城镇人均可支配收入、城镇就业人口、土地购置面积、经济适用房、别墅的供求状况等因素都对普通商品住房的供求变化产生较为显著的影响。     

品牌价值建设与区域经济增长差异的实证研究

随着品牌的发展,品牌在区域经济发展过程中发挥着越来越重要的作用。利用我国东中西部地区2004—2009年的省际面板数据,对三大区域的品牌与经济增长的关系进行比较研究。研究结果表明,品牌与区域经济增长之间存在着显著的相关关系,且对东中西部地区经济增长的影响有显著差异,各地区品牌发展的不同是导致中国区域经济发展不均衡的重要因素之一。因此,各地区应重视品牌价值建设,实施品牌发展战略,以品牌发展带动区域经济协调、快速发展。     

世纪之交的重大话题——我国耕地、粮食与城市土地利用状况

工业化、城市化与农业现代化在我国经济社会发展过程中是紧密相关、相互促进的,城市化和城市的发展会造成我国耕地大量流失和粮食紧缺是极其错误的观点。我国城市化发展尚处于初级阶段,城市用地就总体而言处于低标准水平。城市与区域规划是合理利用和节约土地的重要手段,应切实重视和加强城市与区域规划对空间资源尤其是土地资源的合理调控、配置作用。     

Patterns of growth in Chinese cities: Implications of the land lease

A special feature of China’s housing market is land use rights in the form of land leasehold contracts granted by the government. We consider an equilibrium model in which a representative developer may choose to redevelop existing centrally located housing or to develop new housing at the periphery of the city. We show that as the city grows, the land leasehold system results in the city center being developed less intensely and more land being used on the outskirts of the city when compared to a fee simple environment. Thus, cities in China are likely to be relatively more spread out, with city centers relatively older than would be the case with “fee simple” ownership. Our model suggests that excess residential land use is about 6 percent. In addition, compared with the ownership case, housing supply will grow more quickly in the near future, but more slowly later on during the transition of the Chinese economy. Parallel to the supply growth pattern, equilibrium price grows relative slowly in the near future, but more quickly later on. While we focus on residential uses, we believe our model can be applied to other land uses.     

地方政府竞争、土地价格与外商直接投资——基于69个地级市面板数据的分析

选取2005—2015年我国中部五省共69个地级市的数据,在考虑存在空间溢出效应可能性的基础上,采用空间面板数据模型分析地方政府竞争、土地价格对外商直接投资的空间影响。实证研究结果表明：工业用地价格降低和商业用地价格升高有利于吸引外商直接投资,地方政府竞争通过直接和间接作用于土地出让价格两种手段影响外商直接投资规模。土地价格和政府竞争对地理相邻地区的FDI能够产生显著影响,一个地区的工业土地价格降低、商业土地价格升高将抑制地理相邻地区的FDI规模,同时,一个地区政府竞争的加剧也会降低地理相邻地区的FDI,但这一空间溢出效应在经济距离相邻权重下并不显著,说明中部五省地级市的竞争主要存在于地理位置相邻的地方政府间。     

转型时期制度变迁对我国经济增长影响的实证分析

我国现在进行的改革开放必然会引起制度的变迁,而从经济学理论上讲,制度的变迁又会对经济的发展产生巨大影响。文中制度这一因素引入经济增长模型,并量化测度了制度变迁,并进行实证分析。结果表明,改革开放30多年来我国的制度变迁对经济的增长具有巨大的促进作用。而目前,我国的体制改革尚未完成,仍有较大的制度变迁空间,所以制度创新与变革仍然是我国未来较长一段时期内经济增长的重要动力源泉。