Grenzen zulässiger Kapitalanlagestrategien deutscher Lebensversicherer

The article focuses on two questions related to the financial supervision of German life insurers. German insurers are not allowed to invest more than 30% (35 % from Jan. 1st, 2002) of their assets covering the technical provisions in stocks. First, it has been elaborated that this fixed limitation of stock investments is inconsistent with a risk-related asset allocation. Life insurers should observe the recognitions of the capital market theory as do all other investors. Basically, fixed liabilities have to be covered safely, i. e. with bonds. Not withstanding this, fixed liabilities may be covered with stocks if the losses which may occur due to the volatility of the capital markets can be equalized through the dissolution of hidden reserves (which is a phenomenon arising from the German accounting standards). Since the hidden reserves differ from insurer to insurer the regulation of stock investments is recommended to be carried out individually. The British solution has been introduced as an example for an individual regulation of the stock / bond-ratio. Secondly, the differentiation between the German technical provisions and free assets is also partly inconsistent with a risk-related asset allocation. The free assets cover liabilities to the amount of the terminal bonus reserve, which have to be covered safely with bonds. Nevertheless, even today a with-bonus life insurance contract investing more in stocks than in bonds can be offered. In this case, fixed liabilities should be prevented by a low guaranteed interest rate and a high and variable terminal bonus.     

Uniqueness of the fair premium for equity-linked life insurance contracts

An equity-linked life insurance contract combines an endowment life insurance and an investment strategy with a minimum guarantee. The benefit of this contract is determined by the guaranteed amount plus a bonus equal to a call on the portfolio. This bonus is similar to an Asian option. This article analyzes the relationship between the periodic insurance premium and its proportional share invested into the portfolio. For a general model of the financial risks we show the existence and uniqueness of an insurance premium. Furthermore the premium is strictly increasing and convex as a function of the share invested.     

International reserves and global interest rates

In this paper we study the relationship between foreign currency international reserve holdings and global interest rates. To guide empirical work we solve a simple, small open-economy model with money, where the central bank manages international reserves to smooth inflation over time. This model shows that changes in interest rates are positively related to the target level of reserves. As a consequence interest rate hikes increase reserve transfers, defined as the change in international reserves net of the interest earned on reserves. Using quarterly data for 75 countries between 2000 and 2013, we document a positive relationship between interest-rate changes and reserve transfers as a share of GDP, that is consistent with the model.     

A note on discount rate policy and the variability of discount window borrowing

The purpose of this note is to evaluate the appropriate discount rate policy rules consistent with minimization of the variability of borrowing at the Federal Reserve discount window. In the context of Goodfriend's (1983) model of the bank borrowing decision, it is demonstrated that either a penalty rate or a subsidy rate policy will produce minimized variability of borrowing, so long as the subsidy rate adjusts point for point to changes in the value of the Federal funds rate. These policy rules are compatible with a policy procedure designed to target borrowed or non-borrowed reserves. If the Fed does not adhere to one of these specific rules, minimization of borrowing variability requires an open market procedure in which the Fed pegs the Federal funds rate.     

Interest on reserves

In a general equilibrium setting, we study versions of the proposal to pay interest on reserves at the market rate. We argue that the proposal makes the demand for total reserves indeterminate, whether interest is paid on total reserves or on required reserves only. One consequence is that tax financing of the proposal gives rise to a continuum of equilibria, equilibria which differ in real returns and consumption allocations. Another consequence is that financing through earnings on the central bank's portfolio either gives rise to an equilibrium with a zero nominal interest rate or to no equilibrium.     

Lebensversicherung — stille Reserven — Überschussbeteiligung

Hidden reserves play an important role in life insurance policies; the values of the bonus as well as the value of the final bonus are dependent on them. The article points out that insured people in the German system do not have a claim in respect of hidden reserves. The authors of the article also suggest a resolve may be sought by reflecting on the ?fair market value“ idea; an idea originating from the latest suggestions in Brussels (Regulation on the application of IAS)     

On the interest-rate elasticity of the demand for international reserves: Some evidence from developing countries

Contrary to what is suggested by the theory, most empirical studies on the demand for international reserves have failed to find a significant (negative) coefficient for the opportunity cost of holding reserves. In this paper it is argued that the reason for this is that the opportunity cost of holding international reserves has been measured incorrectly. In the empirical analysis presented in this paper the spread between the interest rate at which countries can borrow from abroad and LIBOR is used as a proxy for the net opportunity cost for holding reserves. The results obtained using data for a group of developing countries for 1976–1980 show that when this net opportunity cost is used, the regression coefficient is significantly negative.     

Mitigating Interest Rate Risk in Variable Annuities: An Analysis of Hedging Effectiveness under Model Risk

Variable annuities are investment vehicles offered by insurance companies that combine a life insurance policy with long-term financial guarantees. These guarantees expose the insurer to market risks, such as volatility and interest rate risks, which can be managed only with a hedging strategy. The objective of this article is to study the effectiveness of dynamic delta-rho hedging strategies for mitigating interest rate risk in variable annuities with either a guaranteed minimum death benefit or guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit rider. Our analysis centers on three important practical issues: (1) the robustness of delta-rho hedging strategies to model uncertainty, (2) the impact of guarantee features (maturity versus withdrawal benefits) on the performance of the hedging strategy, and (3) the importance of hedging interest rate risk in either a low and stable or rising interest rate environment. Overall, we find that the impact of interest rate risk is equally felt for the two types of products considered, and that interest rate hedges do lead to a significant risk reduction for the insurer, even when the ongoing low interest rate environment is factored in.     

Quantifying structural subsidy values for systemically important financial institutions

Claimants to Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) would receive transfers when governments are forced into bailouts. Ex ante, this bailout expectation lowers SIFIs’ daily funding costs. The funding cost advantage reflects both the structural level of the government support and the time-varying market valuation for such a support. Based on a large worldwide sample of banks, we estimate the value of the structural subsidy, by exploiting expectations of state support embedded in credit ratings and by applying the long-run average value of the rating bonus. The value of the structural subsidy was already sizable, 60 basis points (bp), as of the end-2007, before the crisis. It increased to 80 bp by the end-2009.     

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and overnight interest rates: Empirical modeling of exit strategies

This paper provides a comprehensive study of the interplay between the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and overnight interest rates. We model both the supply of and the demand for excess reserves. Treating outright securities holdings of the Federal Reserve as a policy tool, we estimate the effects of unconventional monetary policy on overnight funding rates. Further, we offer the first empirical assessment of the FOMC’s principles of the exit strategy. Assuming a path for removing monetary policy accommodation that is consistent with the FOMC’s exit principles, we project that the federal funds rate increases to 70 basis points by 2016, settling in a corridor bracketed by the discount rate and the interest rate on excess reserves, as excess reserves of depository institutions decline to near zero.     

The dynamics of premium reserves of life annuities under the regime of Solvency II

The article considers the solvency requirements for a whole portfolio of annuities under the regime of Solvency II. More precisely, the following question is investigated: Which demand of interest on the initial capital – the Solvency II premium reserves – is needed in order to fit the balance for Solvency II capital requirements in the next year? It turns out, that even for a model portfolio of simple annuities with say guaranteed interest rate of 1,25% the demand of interest in one year is greater than 3%. So even if a life insurance company fulfill the capital requirements of Solvency II in 2016 the mentioned effect causes eventually problems in future times.     

Cohort and value-based multi-country longevity risk management

ABSTRACT

Multi-country risk management of longevity risk provides new opportunities to hedge mortality and interest rate risks in guaranteed lifetime income streams. This requires consideration of both interest rate and mortality risks in multiple countries. For this purpose, we develop value-based longevity indexes for multiple cohorts in two different countries that take into account the major sources of risks impacting life insurance portfolios, mortality and interest rates. To construct the indexes we propose a cohort-based affine model for multi-country mortality and use an arbitrage-free multi-country Nelson–Siegel model for the dynamics of interest rates. Index-based longevity hedging strategies have the advantages of efficiency, liquidity and lower cost but introduce basis risk. Graphical risk metrics are a way to effectively capture the relationship between an insurer's portfolio and hedging strategies. We illustrate the effectiveness of using a value-based index for longevity risk management between two countries using graphical basis risk metrics. To show the impact of both interest rate and mortality risk we use Australia and the UK as domestic and foreign countries, and, to show the impact of mortality only, we use the male populations of the Netherlands and France with common interest rates and basis risk arising only from differences in mortality risks.     

Intergenerational and International Welfare Leakages of a Product Subsidy in a Small Open Economy

A dynamic overlapping-generations model of a small open economy with monopolistic competition in the goods market is constructed. Lump-sum tax-financed product subsidization boosts output and employment both in the impact period and in the new steady state. The real exchange rate depreciates in the long run but the impact effect is ambiguous. If the labour supply effect is weak and the economy is not very open, the exchange rate appreciates at impact. The policy has important intergenerational distribution effects. Old existing generations gain more than younger existing generations as well as future generations. The bond policy which neutralizes the intergenerational inequities allows the computation of an optimal product subsidy which depends positively on the extent of the domestic scale economies and negatively on the degree of openness of the economy.     

Interest on bank reserves and optimal sweeping

A key rationale offered by the Federal Reserve for the payment of interest on reserves was to remove the incentive for banks to operate sweep accounts. Sweeping shifts funds from transactions deposits subject to reserve requirements to non-reservable deposits. This paper extends a conventional banking model to analyze sweeping behavior. Sweeping responds positively to increases in bank loan rates and reserve ratios and negatively to increases in the interest rate on reserves or exogenous increases in bank equity. Sweeping generates greater responsiveness in lending to changes in loan rates or the interest rate on reserves and lower responsiveness to changes in reserve ratios or equity than in its absence. Empirical analysis of an explicit condition that we derive suggests that, with an unchanged reserve requirement, the Fed could eliminate sweeping by setting the interest rate on reserves to no less than approximately 4% points below the market loan rate.     

Money creation within the macroeconomy: An integrated model of banking

We develop a monetary framework to describe a macroeconomic system consisting of households, firms, the government, the central bank, and banks. The framework is based on the balance sheets of all sectors, in which the monetary flows between them govern the dynamics of the items. The whole system evolves over time and eventually attains a stationary state. Using this integrated model, we find that all flows coming from banks, including issuing loans, purchasing bonds, paying dividends, and paying interest on deposits, create money. On the contrary, all flows going to banks, including receiving repayments, selling bonds, issuing equities, and receiving interest on loans and bonds, destroy money. These flows associated with the behaviors of money creation and destruction are core factors that determine stationary states. We show the relationships between these flows and stationary stocks, especially the quantity of money. We also present the dependence of final output on these flows. We analyze the effects of monetary policies, such as changing the rate on loans and the amount of bank reserves. We find that an increase in the rate may yield higher output, while injecting more reserves may result in lower output.     

Housing,mortgage bailout guarantees and the macro economy

What are the macroeconomic and distributional effects of government bailout guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises (e.g., Fannie Mae)? A model with heterogeneous, infinitely lived households and competitive housing and mortgage markets is constructed to evaluate this question. Households can default on their mortgages via foreclosure. The bailout guarantee is a tax-financed mortgage interest rate subsidy. Eliminating this subsidy leads to a large decline in mortgage origination and increases aggregate welfare by 0.5% in consumption equivalent variation, but has little effect on foreclosure rates and housing investment. The interest rate subsidy is a regressive policy: it hurts low-income and low-asset households.     

Risk-taking in new project selection: Additive effects of bonus incentives and past performance history

The goal of this study is to investigate how past project performance history and bonus incentive pay schemes affect managers' propensity to select more or less risky projects. Performance history is manipulated via past positive outcomes (i.e. beating a target profit rate) and negative outcomes (i.e. missing a target profit rate). Two types of bonus incentive pay schemes (hurdle bonus and graduated bonus) were employed in the study. The findings are consistent with prospect theory that predicts that prior bad outcomes (negative performance history) motivate greater risk-taking than prior good outcomes (positive performance history). In addition, we find evidence that hurdle and graduated bonus incentive schemes also affect risk taking. Overall, we find an additive effect of these two factors, such that the greatest (least) risk taking occurred when participants had negative (positive) prior experience coupled with a graduated (hurdle) bonus scheme.     

The optimal timing of the transfer of hidden reserves in the German and Austrian tax systems

The lower-of-cost-or-market principle implies that assets may be sold above book value, by which hidden reserves are disclosed. To avoid taxation of these hidden reserves, in German-speaking countries companies are allowed to transfer them to a newly purchased asset within a fixed time period. In this paper, the optimal timing of hidden reserves transfers is developed with special attention to the term structure of interest rates and interest rate risk, and using the replicating principle known from the field of finance. The paper presents one model under certainty and, as a generalization of this model, another model under interest rate risk. In both models, the criterion used for decision-making is the value of the right to transfer, which can be interpreted as the initial cost of a replicating/hedging strategy for tax payments saved/incurred. In the model under certainty, the net present value concept is used to derive the value of the right to transfer. The procedure used in the model under interest rate risk is a combination of flexible planning and the no-arbitrage approach common in derivatives pricing. It is shown that the right to transfer hidden reserves with flexible timing is equivalent to an American-style exchange option. In addition, the impact of term-structure volatility on the value of the right to transfer is analyzed. The technique presented in this paper can also be used to solve other timing problems resulting from trade-offs between early and late tax payments/tax benefits. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On investment in funds

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to determine how large a capital risk a monetary institution is incurring by receiving capital payments under obligation to yield a fixed guaranteed interest until a prescribed date, even if the market rate of interest should fall below the rate guaranteed, and to investigate to what extent the risk is decreased if it is possible to invest the payment first received at a rate of interest exceeding the rate guaranteed.     

Produktgarantien und Aktienkrise — Implikationen für die Kapitalanlagepolitik von Lebensversicherungsunternehmen

The present contribution analyzes the implications of two central factors influencing the asset allocation decision of (German) life insurance companies, the development of the equity market on one hand and the interest rate guarantees included in traditional life insurance products on the other. The adverse development of share prices in 2000–2002 implies the necessity to consider not only ?normal“ volatility but also worst case-developments for the purpose of risk control. Formally this is done by using the risk measures value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk. The specific ?myopic“ nature of interest rate guarantees in German life insurance products, which are granted on a yearly basis implies — beyond the general control of the shortfall risk with respect to the guaranteed interest rates — the necessity to per-form the asset allocation on a yearly basis to be in conformity with the time horizon of the liabilities.On the basis of a quantitative approach corresponding model calculations are performed. Thereby not only a pure market valuation is considered but also institutional peculiarities (hidden reserves, accounting norms) of German life insurance companies. The possibility of a riskless one-year investment, either based on market values or on balance sheet values, is revealed to be crucial for giving interest rate guarantees on a yearly basis.