After the presidential elections: Will the US “open door” trade strategy continue?

During the 1996 US presidential campaign protectionist proposals as well as calls for abandoning all international organizations were formulated, causing alarm in the rest of the world. Does the new US Administration's trade policy concept in fact pose major challenges to the international trade system?     

A Simple and Flexible Dynamic Approach to Foreign Direct Investment Growth: The Canada‐United States Relationship in the Context of Free Trade

This paper asks a simple question: Did Wilfred Laurier's dream of free trade with the United States, when it came to fruition in 1989, also impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) into Canada by US multinationals? This paper argues that the customary static econometric approach found in the FDI literature, along with the assumption that policy changes influence only the intercept term, are inadequate to address the question. Instead we introduce an innovative dynamic framework to support the testing of hypotheses on behavioural changes in the variables using a structural break framework. A key conclusion is that prior to signing the free trade agreement US FDI responded only to current growth in the Canadian economy, in a unitary fashion, and current exchange rate shifts. This can be described as a static relationship. The implementation of the free trade agreements between Canada and the USA increased the responsiveness of US FDI to growth in the Canadian economy by a factor greater than two. Furthermore, dynamics are found in the form of a lagged effect for changes in the growth in the Canadian economy and interest rate differentials. These conclusions challenge the dominant view, including that in official policy circles, that the free trade agreement had no impact on US firms’ FDI decisions in Canada.     

Facing up to Trump administration mercantilism: The 2018 WTO trade policy review of the United States

As one of the largest trading economies in the WTO system, US trade policy is reviewed regularly by WTO members, informed by a Trade Policy Review (TPR) report. This paper discusses the 2018 TPR of the United States, the 14th such review undertaken since the entry into force of the WTO in 1995. It is the first review of trade policy under the Trump administration. While the TPR documents the significant changes in US trade policy, it does not engage with the mercantilist vision that motivates trade policy under President Trump or the apparent desire to engage in trade wars with its major trading partners. The lack of discussion of the existential threat to the liberal trading system implied by the drastic changes to US trade policy reduces the salience of the TPR and makes it unclear exactly what purpose it serves.     

Richtungswechsel in den USA — Folgen der neuen Präsidentschaft für die Wirtschaft

Under US President Donald Trump, it can be expected that large tax cuts will be passed and public expenditure will be slightly limited. He correctly identified US deindustrialisation as one of the economy’s core problems. His proposed policy platforms, however, are unpredictable and most likely harmful for the US and world economy. Even more importantly, the new government repeatedly clashes with national and multilateral institutions and thereby challenges the heart of democratically based capitalism. At present, it is still open if Donald Trump’s Executive Orders on trade measures will be backed by the US Congress. In any case, the new US administration is obviously abandoning the general principle of free trade. But the announced changes in US trade and exchange rate policies are less of a fundamental break than is often argued, because cooperation in international economic policy has always been limited and unstable. Beyond trade policy, it seems to be the intention of the new US government to fundamentally change the course of the country with regard to the financial markets. With regard to its monetary policy, the administration’s current position is marked by its inherent inconsistency. However, the new government has several channels through which to influence and fundamentally change the working of the Fed in order to make it more obedient to its goals.     

An Interim Assessment of the US Trade Policy of ‘Competitive Liberalization’

Since 2001, the Administration of George W. Bush has pursued a trade policy known as Competitive Liberalization. This policy envisages a series of mutually‐reinforcing and sequential steps to open markets abroad to US companies, to strengthen market‐oriented laws and regulations overseas, and to place the United States at the centre of the world trading system. Foreign and security policy considerations have influenced US trade policy making, perhaps more so than in the 1990s. To date the principal outcome of this policy has been the negotiation by the United States of numerous free trade agreements, mainly with developing countries, individually or in sub‐regional groupings. In addition to characterising this policy in detail, the principal purpose of this paper is to assess the logic underlying this approach to trade policy making and whether Competitive Liberalization has begun to fulfil the promise spelled out for it at the beginning of this decade.     

Revisiting the evidence on trade policy preferences

Past literature has found evidence that labor market attributes affect individuals' trade policy preferences in a manner consistent with theories of international trade. This paper shows that, with the exception of education, the relationships between labor market attributes and trade policy preferences are not robust in US survey data. This suggests that either our proxies of labor market attributes are poor or our theories for what drives trade policy preferences need to be revisited.     

美国农产品贸易政策的全面审视

美国农业政策可追溯到20世纪30年代的"新政"。2002年5月产生的"2002年农业法案",是美国国会根据形势变化做出的调整而产生的新法案。美国农业政策影响了美国农产品生产和贸易。了解美国的农产品贸易政策应该从市场准入、国内支持和出口竞争入手。     

EU-Handels- und Investitionspolitik — Freihandelsabkommen,Handelsschutzmaßnahmen und ausländische Investitionen

There are many controversial and contentious aspects of the EU’s trade and investment policy. To evaluate existing and forthcoming free trade agreements, the paper describes their potential economic effects. It analyses the effects of EU trade policy and of the new protectionism of the US.     

巨额贸易逆差下美国经济增长模式及对中国经济的影响

自20世纪90年代以来,美国在巨额贸易逆差下实行了经济持续增长。本文从金融角度详细分析了美国依据美元特殊的国际货币地位和外汇储备特征实行对全球的金融剥削;从产业角度探讨了新一轮全球产业分工重组背景下制造产业的国际转移、跨国公司内部贸易、美国独特的进口商品结构、油价上涨和美国能源产业政策对“悖论”解释的合理性;从宏观政策角度解析了美国“双赤字”并存的必然原因。本文认为,美元地位的不断下降使美国经济增长模式存在潜在危机,而美国对内外经济失衡的调整,势必对中美贸易、人民币汇率、中国外汇储备及内外经济平衡产生深远的影响。     

Putting industries into the Eaton–Kortum model

The article introduces the industry dimension into the Eaton-Kortum model of trade. Industries are linked with each other by domestic and international trade in intermediate goods. The model is parametrized using data for eight industries in 1989. It is used to perform several counterfactual simulations that are relevant to today's policy debates. First, the model is used to study the effects of the US–EU trade wars. It is found that trade wars have a greater negative effect on countries with large initial net export positions. It is also found that some trade war scenarios are more beneficial to the US while others to the EU. Second, the model is used to study the effects of trade barrier reductions between the high-income and middle-income countries. The results show that this trade liberalization tends to reinforce the pattern of trade according to technological comparative advantages. The results also show which industries should be targeted for barrier reductions depending on policy goals. The third set of simulations investigates spillovers from the technological growth in the US machinery industry. The results show how geography, technology, and industry links affect the propagation of this growth across countries and industries.     

Trade deflection and trade depression

This is the first paper to empirically examine whether a country's use of an import restricting trade policy distorts a foreign country's exports to third markets. We first develop a theoretical model of worldwide trade in which the imposition of antidumping and safeguard tariffs, or “trade remedies,” by one country causes significant distortions in world trade flows. We then empirically test this model by investigating the effect of the United States' use of such import restrictions on Japanese exports of roughly 4800 products into 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US restrictions both deflect and depress Japanese export flows to third countries. Imposition of a US antidumping measure against Japan deflects trade, as the average antidumping duty on Japanese exports leads to a 5-7% increase in Japanese exports of the same product to the average third country market. The imposition of a US antidumping measure against a third country depresses trade, as the average US duty imposed on a third country leads to a 5-19% decrease in Japanese exports of that same product to the average third country's market. We also document the substantial variation in trade deflection and trade depression across different importing countries and exported products.     

Die NAFTA-Verhandlungen — Wohin steuert die US-Handelspolitik?

Since entering into force, NAFTA has contributed to major changes with regard to trade flows, supply chains and foreign investment among Canada, the US and Mexico. But nearly 30 years after the original negotiations, the need for modernisation is evident. A possible US exit from the agreement could lead to major turbulence in trade and investment relations within NAFTA. This article starts by looking at data showing the huge amount of trade and investment interdependencies. Next, it examines the objections being raised against NAFTA in the US and the reasons for this criticism, followed by an analysis of the goals the US is pursuing, set against the background of its reformulated, much more protectionist trade policy strategy. Finally, scenarios for an outcome are discussed.     

The Political Economy of United States’ Free Trade Arrangements

Far from being the leader, the US has been a ‘domino’ belatedly falling into line in the global rush toward bilateral and regional free trade arrangements. Often the initiative for negotiations has come from seemingly weaker trading partners. Once in the game, however, and aware of the asymmetries of market power and issue salience that enhance US bargaining leverage, the US has been aggressively pursuing a variety of commercial and diplomatic interests, both tactical and strategic, that include bolstering local democratic institutions and processes of economic reform, strengthening US security ties, accelerating region‐wide commercial liberalisation by allying with a regional leader, establishing new precedents to use as bench markers in future trade negotiations, and otherwise using free trade accords to advance its comprehensive global trade policy agenda. Bilateralism and regionalism have opened the door to an explicit introduction of political criteria, in contradiction to GATT/WTO apolitical universalism. While often reactive to the initiatives of other nations, the US has not been indiscriminate, deflecting the entreaties of suitors where US international political economy interests are not served.     

美欧贸易壁垒调查立法及应对机制的制度分析

WTO争端解决机制与成员方通过国内立法建立的贸易壁垒调查制度共存的现状,影响着WTO规则改革的方向。美欧贸易壁垒调查应对机制在实践中具有不同战略构想,同时也存在相似的政策取向。它对于WTO其他成员国建设自身贸易预警机制具有重要借鉴价值,中国应研究美欧关于贸易壁垒调查立法的改革及调整,不断完善贸易壁垒调查制度,赋予国内企业提出贸易壁垒调查申请的充分权利。     

What will Obama Bring to Sino-U.S. Trade？

As the major trading partners to each other, China and the U.S. have enjoyed two-digit growth in bilateral trade during the past few years. ,Now, as the dust settles from Obama＇s election,what can we expect from the president-elect in terms of China policy？ Will Obama and his administration redraw the trade policy with China after he taking office, and how much effect will that exert on the Sino-U.S. trade relation？     

THE CASUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR OF THE UNITED STATES

The impact of US trade barriers and demand factors on import prices of Canadian softwood lumber is examined using time series analysis of quarterly data from 1989–2006. The results suggest that the previous quarter import price of softwood lumber, US producer price, and US housing starts, and the current quarter US producer price of softwood lumber have significant impacts on the import price of Canadian softwood lumber with 0.69, 1.92, 0.10 and ?1.64 as respective elasticities. Among trade barriers examined, a softwood quota raises the import price but a high tariff lowers it.     

Allies and Friends: The Trade Policy Review of the United States, 2006

The 2006 WTO Trade Policy Review of the United States reveals that national security concerns have become a dominant influence on US trade policy since 2001. This paper argues that direct and indirect effects of this influence have been deleterious to the multilateral trading system. Security concerns have led to an embrace of bilateralism that bears little relation to US commercial interests and will arguably detract from ongoing efforts at multilateral trade liberalisation. Security concerns have also led to a substantial change in customs and inspection procedures for goods bound for the US, which could swamp tariffs in terms of their trade‐inhibiting effect. Finally, the unpopularity at home of US military actions abroad has weakened the US President and opened the door for rising protectionism in Congress.     

The end of financial services liberalisation as we know it

At the intersection of trade policy and finance a new field of international economic policy has emerged, which has so far received little academic attention. Since the early 1990s, financial services have become an object of modern trade policy for the first time. How are the contours of the new trade policy for the financial services defined? Which research issues are posed by this new field?     

Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures

This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalance since 1997 is changes in saving‐investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the US fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia's exchange rates by 10 per cent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia's concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, macroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific.     

我国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作现状、存在问题和提升策略研究

“一带一路”倡议提出以来,我国与沿线国家贸易合作得到很大改善,但依然存在基础设施比较落后、贸易模式和贸易结构比较单一固化等问题。同时,考虑到当前全球贸易保护主义抬头、国际贸易规则加速重构、全球贸易投资环境日益严峻、全球经济增长动能减弱和中美贸易摩擦影响加剧等,应加强政府间沟通,构建健全的政策制度体系,加快基础设施建设,实现更高水平的互联互通,坚持以重点产业合作带动贸易合作,加快自贸区网络建设,争取早日开始“一带一路”自贸协定谈判,不断提升我国与沿线国家贸易合作水平。