国际贸易规则重构之非正式规则研究

在经济全球化的大背景下,国际贸易模式正经历着深刻变革,加速了国际贸易规则的重构。非正式规则作为传统多边国际贸易协议以及区域性自由贸易协定的补充和调整,其超越了传统国际造法的范畴,没有法律约束力,却为市场主要参与者高度认同且普遍遵守,因此能够有效避免和解决国际贸易争端、维持国际贸易秩序的稳定,并且免受国家政治、军事、经济等实力的影响。对非正式规则的研究,有助于我国参与到国际贸易规则重构中去。     

Carbon policy and the structure of global trade

Alternative perspectives on the structure of international trade have important implications for the evaluation of climate policy. In this paper, we assess climate policy in the context of three important alternative trade formulations. First is a Heckscher‐Ohlin model based on trade in homogeneous products, which establishes the traditional neoclassical view on comparative advantage. Second is an Armington model based on regionally differentiated goods, which is a popular specification for numerical simulations of trade policy. Third is a Melitz model based on monopolistic competition and firm heterogeneity. This heterogeneous‐firms framework is adopted in many contemporary theoretic and empirical investigations in international trade. As we show in this paper, the three alternative trade formulations have important implications for the assessment of climate policy with respect to competitive effects for energy‐intensive production (and hence carbon leakage) as well as the transmission of policy burdens across countries.     

迈进入世山 再遇入市坎

美国及欧盟等国家不承认我国是市场经济体制国家.给不给予我国市场经济地位的待遇,不仅是一个贸易问题,更重要的是一个政治问题.我国要求承认我国是市场经济国家,对我国融入国际贸易体系,获取公正的国际贸易待遇,加快社会和经济发展意义重大.而＂非市场经济＂地位,对我国的国际形象、对外贸易造成的影响与损失极大.对此,我们应该采取＂冷静对待,力争突破＂的方针,力争获得市场经济国家的地位与待遇.     

环境对国际贸易的积极作用和消极影响

环境和贸易之间有着复杂的关系和相互影响，一个领域的政策措施会不断地对另一个领域产生显著而重要的影响。环境对贸易既有积极影响又有消极作用。一方面环境为贸易的可持续发展提供了基础，另一方面，严格的环境保护政策，会给发展中国家的贸易带来不利影响。我国要保持贸易利益和促使经济持续发展，就必须认识到环境和贸易的密切关系，趋利避害，采取必要的应对和发展措施。     

Welfare implications of trade liberalization and fiscal reform: A quantitative experiment

This paper studies the welfare implications of revenue-neutral trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs for developing economies using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We analyze how different combinations of tariffs – on imported consumption goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods – and taxes – on consumption, labor income and capital income – affect the transitional and long-run welfare. We report three main findings. First, trade liberalization programs financed by consumption and labor income taxes tend to result in substantial welfare gains, but financing the lost tariff revenue through capital income taxes can have an adverse impact on welfare. Second, a significant fraction of welfare changes is due to transitional effects stemming from the allocation of resources in response to changes in tariffs and taxes. Third, trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs often translate into much larger welfare gains in countries that are more open to international financial markets.     

Book review

The paper develops a general equilibrium model of international production and trade. Technology is carried across borders by multinational producers and the set of technologies being used in a particular country is endogenous. Production locations are chosen based on the costs of production and getting the product to market. A producer may manufacture its product in its home country, target market country, or a third country. Estimated model parameters describe the states of technology in different countries, barriers to international investment, and trade costs. It is found that the barriers to international trade and investment are highly correlated. The model is used to measure the extent of technology diffusion across countries, study the relationship between international production and trade, investigate the effects of free-trade agreements (FTAs) on offshoring, and to quantify the welfare effects of international production and trade.     

Oil shocks and external balances

We provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account, capital gains, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA). First, we show that the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Our results provide evidence of an intermediate degree of international financial integration. Second, we document the presence of large and systematic valuation effects in response to these shocks. Valuation effects overall tend to cushion the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the NFA positions of oil exporters and oil importers. Third, we quantify the overall importance of global business cycle demand shocks as well as oil-market specific demand and supply shocks for external balances.     

附加值最大化的经济效应分析

文章对附加值最大化问题建立了数学模型,对附加值最大化的经济效应分国内贸易和国际贸易两方面进行了利润最大化对比.附加值最大化具有产业结构提升效应,并且在国内贸易中可以和利润最大化相容,而在国际贸易中不一定相容;并对利润最大化在国际贸易中的效率损失和政策导向提出简单建议.     

突破贸易保护主义重围 切实维护国内产业安全

本文认为,国际金融危机加剧了贸易保护主义,贸易摩擦对我国产业安全的威胁加剧.为了创造良好的国际贸易环境,维护国内产业安全,我国将继续旗帜鲜明地反对贸易保护主义,积极参与贸易救济规则的多边谈判;将现有救济手段和政策手段形成合力,从源头上减少贸易摩擦;实施提升产业竞争力的贸易政策,加速调整产业结构,增强产业国际竞争力;灵活运用贸易救济措施,建立贸易调整援助制度.     

Does Religious Similarity Matter in International Trade in Services?

Impacts of religion on trade in services were examined using gravity models with two estimation methods: Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (PPML), to correct for heteroscedasticity and bias due to the exclusion of zero trade flow, and standard Heckman correction to compensate for sample selection bias. We found that religious similarity contributes to increased international trade in services by establishing ‘trust‐related institutions’. Second, religious pluralism (variety) fosters trade even more than religious similarity, suggesting that in facilitating trade, religious openness matters more than religious similarity. Third, a strong dominant religion discourages trade in services, whereas the presence of religious minorities encourages trade in services. A highly significant inverse Mill's ratio (IMR) result indicated the presence of sample selection bias, indicating that controls are necessary to prevent estimation bias. This study concluded that religion is an important determining factor for trade in services, positively affecting interpersonal trust and thereby reducing institutional distance between countries.     

Beyond Trade Costs: Firms’ Endogenous Access to International Markets

In this paper, we explore another factor besides trade costs that can affect firms’ exports: strategic interaction between firms in R&D investment. Three results can be highlighted. First, the volume of trade is higher in the presence of R&D than in the absence of it, given that R&D reduces marginal costs. Second, like with reductions in trade costs, international trade grows with increases in the return on R&D, since technological progress enhances firms’ competitiveness. Third, when firms differ in commitment power in R&D, the R&D leader plays strategically in R&D in order to become more competitive and to be more active in international markets than the R&D follower.     

Issues for Business Ethics in the Nineties and Beyond

Nine issues of fundamental importance for business ethics are examined with a view to encouraging researchers in the field to direct their attention to them in the 1990s and beyond. The issues are related to organized labour, social dumping, international finance and Third World debt, tobacco promotion, arms trade, wealth concentration and taxation, pollution and resource depletion, international trading blocks, and the Canadian Business Council on National Issues and other business organizations.     

我国对外贸易与国际物流关系的实证研究

为了更好地理解国际贸易与国际物流的关系,制定出合适的协同发展战略,本文选取国际贸易与国际物流之间的关系作为研究对象进行了实证分析。首先,结合指标的合理性和数据的可得性选取了分析变量;在此基础上利用时间序列数据,运用Granger因果检验的方法对国际贸易和国际物流之间的关系进行了研究,并得出结论:我国的国际贸易与物流存在着反馈性的因果关系;其中,物流对贸易的促进作用比贸易对物流的促进作用要稍大一些。     

International trade,knowledge diffusion,and growth

The international diffusion of knowledge is not a major topic in traditional trade theory, although it has a crucial direct and indirect impact on the development of open economics. In this article, the scale effects and the resource reallocation effects of the international transmission of knowledge are analyzed. Within a model, it is shown that free trade in goods can harm growth in an economy that is relatively well supplied with skilled labor if the international diffusion of knowledge is not intensive enough.     

Surviving globalisation

This paper investigates the effects of international trade on firms' strategies for industry exit, either via closedown, switching industry or being acquired. We use a rich dataset of Swedish firms that extends over two decades to track firm choices between alternative strategies. We find that higher levels of international competition increase the probability of exit by merger and closedown. If trade is more intra-industry in character, the effect of import penetration on the probability of exit is less. The probability of exit by switching industry is higher in revealed comparative disadvantage industries. Finally, we find that the geographical source of international competition is important, the effects of trade on exit being strongest when trading partners are other OECD countries.     

Effect of financial development on international trade in Africa: Does measure of finance matter?

Although improving international trade on the back of financial sector development is one of the preoccupations of countries in Africa, empirical literature on financial development-trade nexus has not been rigorous in examining how finance shapes trade. In this study, we examine the effect of financial development on international trade in Africa relying on data for 46 countries over the period 1980–2015. Results from our system generalized method of moments reveal differential effects of finance on trade. In particular, we notice that, private credit does not promote trade while domestic credit positively affects trade. These effects are robust to measures of trade. Thus, improving the level of private (domestic) credit dampens (amplifies) exports and trade openness. However, we also find a U-shaped relationship between private credit and trade measures suggesting that financial sector development may be detrimental (helpful) to trade for economies with low (high) level of private credit.     

对外贸易对我国城乡收入差距影响的实证分析

本文利用1978-2007年间我国31个省市的面板数据,对进出口贸易对我国城乡收入差距影响的效应进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,对外贸易是影响我国城乡收入差距的重要因素。对外贸易主要通过就业和工资水平途径影响国内城乡收入差距,不同时期,对外贸易对我国不同类型劳动者的就业及其工资水平的影响不同。对外贸易对我国就业的影响主要表现为就业数量扩大效应和就业质量偏向效应,就业数量扩大效应有利于缩小城乡收入差距,就业质量偏向效应扩大了城乡收入差距,对外贸易对我国城乡居民收入差距的影响就是这两种效应的综合。因此,我国政府应高度重视对外贸易的城乡收入分配效应,趋利避害,综合实施各种措施,同时达到经济发展和城乡居民收入差距缩小的目标。     

扩展边境效应模型的鲁棒性检验研究——基于中美港口航运贸易数据

在边境效应引力模型理论和实证研究的基础上,构建考虑贸易方向、适用于港口进出口航运贸易的边境效应引力模型的扩展模型,基于2005～2009年中美港口数据采用六种方法对构建的扩展模型进行鲁棒性检验和非线性检验。结果发现:构建的扩展模型是一个较优的模型,进出口港口的经济总量、吞吐量和两个港口之间的经济距离是影响双边航运贸易量的关键因素;距离的计算方法会造成边境效应的高估或低估;国家的有形边境会造成无形的贸易障碍,并在进出口两个方向上对贸易的阻碍程度是不对称的,但都显著存在。     

我国国际贸易的环境经济学分析

通过对我国国际贸易与生态环境的理论分析与实证分析,得出结论：国际贸易对中国生态环境的负的规模效应大大超过了正的结构效应和技术效应,因此,总效应为负：为了协调经济发展和环境保护的关系,必须实施一系列以实现可持续发展为目标的“绿色”政策措施,在享受国际贸易带来的收益的同时消除其对生态环境的不利影响。     

The dynamics of trade and competition

We estimate a version of the Melitz and Ottaviano [Melitz, Marc J. and Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P., 2008, Market size, trade, and productivity, Review of Economic Studies 75(1), pp. 295-316.] model of international trade with firm heterogeneity. The model is constructed to yield testable implications for the dynamics of prices, productivity and markups as functions of openness to trade at a sectoral level. The theory lends itself naturally to a difference in differences estimation, with international differences in trade openness at the sector level reflecting international differences in the competitive structure of markets. Predictions are derived for the effects of both domestic and foreign openness on each economy. Using disaggregated data for EU manufacturing over the period 1989-1999 we find short run evidence that trade openness exerts a competitive effect, with prices and markups falling and productivity rising. The response of profit margins to openness has implications on the conduct of monetary policy. Consistent with the predictions of some recent theoretical models we find some, albeit weaker, support that the long run effects are more ambiguous and may even be anti-competitive. Domestic trade liberalization also appears to induce pro-competitive effects on overseas markets.