西方关税同盟贸易效应的理论与实证研究

关税同盟理论是西方区域经济一体化理论的核心。区别于现有关税同盟的综述文章,作者将目前西方探讨关税同盟贸易效应的观点按照逻辑关系分成三个方面进行阐述：其一是关税同盟的利益来源;其二是关税同盟的产生原因;其三是最优对外关税的决定。本文也归纳了西方对关税同盟贸易效应进行经验分析的常用方法,并对已有的理论和实证观点进行评价。     

浅析关税同盟理论

关税同盟理论从20世纪50年代维纳提出贸易创造和贸易转移效应至今，它不断地得以完善和发展，逐渐成为一体化理论中较为完善的部分。但是，随着一体化实践的不断发展，关税同盟理论并不能全面解释现实中的种种现象，仍然需要进一步的发展。     

浅析关税同盟理论

关税同盟理论从20世纪50年代维纳提出贸易创造和贸易转移效应至今,它不断地得以完善和发展,逐渐成为一体化理论中较为完善的部分.但是,随着一体化实践的不断发展,关税同盟理论并不能全面解释现实中的种种现象,仍然需要进一步的发展.     

中国区域市场整合的贸易流动效应——基于港澳与大陆之经验的检验

中国区域经济的多层次性特征,使得新古典经济学视域下的有关区域市场整合的经典理论与实证研究的某些分析范式可以被部分运用于中国这一主权国家内部的不同制度、不同关税区的研究。借助关税同盟理论和Balassa模型,对港澳与大陆区域市场整合背景进行描述,并对这一层次区域市场整合的贸易流动效应展开检验,实证结论揭示:港澳与大陆间的区域市场整合对彼此的影响不尽相同,港澳与大陆间的贸易往来,一方面在存在着总贸易创造效应的同时,会获得净贸易创造效应;另一方面,实证结果表明,大陆与港澳间的贸易往来并不存在总贸易转移、净贸易转移等效应。     

战略贸易政策的批评性回顾与在中国的适用条件及其判断

本文从战略贸易政策的理论经典模型入手,对西方战略贸易政策理论的内涵、形成和最新理论观点进行了批评性回顾。并且本文分析了战略贸易政策的适用条件及其在中国的可能应用,最后对中国使用这一政策提出了具体建议。     

关于引力模型的拓展：对边境之谜的一个解释

1．引言引力方程是经济学在实证研究上所取得的最伟大的成功之一。它将双边贸易流量与GDP、距离和其他影响贸易壁垒的因素联系起来。该方程被广泛运用于推断如关税同盟、汇率机制、民族纽带、语言文化等体系的贸易流动效应。与常理相悖,该实证性的引力方程并不具备理论基础。由Anderson[1979]首次提出的理论告诉我们：在控制了经济规模之后,     

贸易政策与环境政策的作用机理分析

随着贸易全球化与环境全球化的发展,西方传统的国际贸易理论呈现出两大缺陷:一是忽视了需求的作用,二是忽略了环境要素的存在。该文从环境要素方面对传统贸易模型进行了拓展,探讨了贸易政策与环境政策工具的经济效应、福利效应以及贸易政策工具与环境政策工具的有效配置。     

人民币升值能改善日美与中国的贸易状况吗?——基于汇率经过效应的研究

有学者提出,被低估的人民币是中国贸易盈余和全球贸易不平衡的主要因素,因此,人民币升值有助于改善中西方的贸易状况。显然,这种观点的内在逻辑是:人民币升值将提高中国出口商品的价格,同时降低外国进口商品和服务的价格,即人民币升值存在较大的汇率经过效应(pass-though effect)。通过对人民币汇率经过效应的研究,发现人民币升值不能改善美国与中国的贸易状况,但能改善日本与中国的贸易状况;其差别的原因就在于贸易定价的不同。     

战略贸易政策的批评性回顾及其在中国的适用条件判断

本文从战略贸易政策的理论经典模型入手,对西方战略贸易政策理论的内涵、形成和最新理论观点进行了批评性回顾,并分析了战略贸易政策的适用条件及其在中国的可能应用,最后提出中国使用这一政策的具体建议.     

俄、白、哈关税同盟对我国外经贸带来的机遇和挑战

我国近年来是俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦的第二大贸易伙伴,俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦(俄白哈)三国关税同盟的建立无疑对我国外经贸产生重大影响.本文具体阐述了俄白哈关税同盟的建立给我国对外经贸带来的机遇和挑战.并阐明了我国应抓住机遇正视挑战,探究有利措施,极积应对挑战,从而加强我国与俄白哈关税同盟的经贸合作,最终扩大对三国同盟区的市场份额.     

How much do tariffs matter? Evidence from the customs union of Belarus,Kazakhstan and Russia

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the early impact of the formation of the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, and associated changes in import schedules on the structure of imports. Relying on an original data-set of statutory tariffs we find that trade creation effects were significant only in trade between Russia and third countries, but that there was some trade destruction, with a significant negative impact on imports from China to Kazakhstan and Russia, and on imports from the EU to Belarus. However, the magnitude of this effect is relatively small, suggesting that the benefits of the new tariff policy per se are limited at best.     

Economic Reforms in Socialist Economics: A Comment on Petr

Abstract:

The pre-WWII approaches to trade unions were mainly based on the theoretical and methodological viewpoints of early institutional economics. Trade unions were conceived of as politico-economic organizations whose members were motivated by relative comparisons, and also were concerned with issues of equity and justice. In the post-war period, there was a major theoretical and methodological shift toward the idea of unions as optimizing economic units with well-defined objective functions, which are optimized subject to purely economic constraints. This conceptual transformation took place mainly through the Dunlop -Ross debate, in which John Dunlop conceived of unions as analogous to business firms, as opposed to Arthur Ross’s institutional and political approach. However, after decades of analytical developments, the current state of trade union theory has not produced very impressive theoretical results. We trace the historical development of the economic analysis of trade unions from a methodological perspective. We also examine the methodological reasons for the dominance of Dunlop’s approach, and the current state of – and the contemporary criticism toward – the established theory. Furthermore, we discuss the contemporary efforts to build a more comprehensive approach to trade union theory and trade union objectives, also incorporating Ross’s institutional and political insights.     

Gains from trade with overlapping generations

Summary This paper examines the welfare effects of international trade in a context of overlapping generations. It shows that, for a single trading country, uncompensated free trade may be Pareto inferior to autarky. However, for each government there are compensation schemes which guarantee welfare improvements for all local individuals when free trade is allowed, or when for a small open economy the terms of trade improve or the number of tradable goods increases, or when a customs union is formed.We acknowledge with gratitude the probing comments of Henry Y. Wan, Jr. and two anonymous referees.     

Customs Union or Free Trade Area? The Role of Political Asymmetries

When trade policy is determined endogenously by lobbying, it matters whether countries are arranged into a customs union or a free trade area. This paper compares the two regimes when the member governments are asymmetric in their susceptibilities to lobbying and in their bargaining power within a customs union. In the model, a customs union never leads to lower tariffs for both countries, whereas it can lead to higher tariffs for both.     

“快速通关”贸易促进效应的实证分析

在低关税的时代,快速通关很可能是打破贸易壁垒,推动国际贸易发展的重要手段。文章从四个方面总结了快速通关对国际贸易的影响机制,并基于2008-2010年113个国家相互之间的出口数据,使用 Heckman两步选择模型进行了实证研究。结果显示,快速通关对贸易参与和贸易规模都有着显著的促进作用,从多个角度进行稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。快速通关可以通过需求偏好效应、成本效应与全球化生产网络效应和遏制日益强化的非关税贸易壁垒的负面效应,使得多边谈判所形成的关税降低的效应得以真正发挥。此外,文章还发现,自由贸易协定的建立,提升了通关效率与边境管理的透明度,进而提高了国家间的贸易量。文章的研究结论对于理解目前中国建立自由贸易区以及实施在贸易谈判中主导快速通关的措施或建立条款,打破技术贸易壁垒具有重要的意义。     

Welfare Comparisons of Customs Unions and Other Free Trade Associations

The main purpose of this note is to establish a precise version of the proposition that, in the context of a worldwide constituency, a customs union is more beneficial or less harmful than a comparable but distinct free trade association. It is shown that, corresponding to each feasible tariff-ridden world trading equilibrium, there is a Pareto-preferred and feasible free trade association; and, corresponding to each free trade association, there is a Pareto-preferred and feasible Kemp–Wan customs union.     

Exchanging market access at the outsiders' expense: the case of customs unions

Abstract.  Under a customs union, countries can exchange preferential market access by coordinating external tariffs to shift profits from excluded countries. I show that the exporting rents resulting from this coordination can offset trade diversion losses produced by the union, even if its members are relatively small in world markets. Such gains come, however, at the expense of excluded countries. I show that small countries can use customs unions also to foster multilateral cooperation, by increasing the incentives of excluded countries to support global free trade.     

How reasonable are assumptions used in theoretical models? Computational evidence on the likelihood of trade pattern changes

Abstract .  In theoretical literature it is common to make the assumption that in a multi-country, multi-good world, the direction of trade (import and export by commodity) is predetermined and fixed for each good for each country. We consider a simple three-country, three-good, pure-exchange model with CES preferences. We compute free trade competitive equilibria, three-country non-cooperative Nash equilibria, and customs union equilibria for randomised parameterizations, and find that trade pattern changes between free trade and customs union equilibria in around 35% of cases.     

Pareto‐optimal Delegation in Customs Unions*

Customs unions constitute agreements to engage in free intra‐union trade and to levy common external tariffs on trade with nonmembers. Existing theoretical models do not agree on how the common external tariffs are chosen. In this paper, a model of customs union formation is developed in which the Pareto principle and the assumption of unanimity are used to construct a mechanism for the choice of common external tariffs. The model is structured as a three‐stage game in which union members select common external tariffs yielding utility outcomes that are Pareto optimal and dominate the standalone alternative. Numerical examples demonstrate the wide range in the nature of these outcomes. Our results are discussed in relation to the delegation principle developed by Gatsios and Karp and to modeling approaches reported in the customs union literature. The paper emphasizes the importance of modeling the formation of the customs union agreement.     

Political economy of China’s trade policy: the evidence from industrial protection in 1990s

The theory of the political economy of trade policy, combining public choice and neoclassical trade theories, studies the level and pattern of trade intervention from the perspective of policy decision-making process, by stressing on income distribution instead of economic efficiency. The paper attempts to apply such an endogenous trade theory to an empirical study of China. On the basis of a formal revised model of political economy of trade protection, it tests theoretical hypotheses concerning the political and economic determinants of cross-sector trade protection in the Chinese industry at various periods. The results show that trade protection in China fits into China’s national development strategy of fast catching-up with the developed world.