PROBLEMS OF MEASURING CAPITAL IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

The general problems of distinguishing between theoretical concepts and practical measures concerning capital are considered and the difference between various stock and flow measures of capital and their respective uses is defined. The qualifications and limitations to these measures in the interpretation of output changes are also discussed. Attention is concentrated on the initial, basic problem of how to measure gross capital stock and the special difficulties involved in using the perpetual inventory simulation method and census procedures in less developed countries to derive such estimates are broadly defined. Some of the special problems encountered in an attempt to undertake an inventory of industrial capital assets in Lesotho are also referred to and the paper concludes by expressing the view that there are at present far more important issues demanding higher statistical priority in less developed countries than the evaluation of capital stocks.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTING AS A PLANNING TOOL IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: LESSONS OF EXPERIENCE

This paper is directed at the following question: How far is the national accounting system as developed in the industrially advanced countries and recommended by the United Nations applicable and useful to countries at an early stage of development? In order to examine the suitability of this tool, the nature of economic policy decisions and their dependence on macro-statistical constructs are analysed, the emphasis being on planning as actually undertaken in the field or going to be undertaken in the near future and not on planning activities as possibly ought to be attempted. The conclusion reached, based upon personal experience in Africa, the Caribbean area, Brazil and Venezuela, both as “producer” and “user” of data, is that planning is mainly limited to the public sector. Comprehensive plans, prepared with the assistance of foreign consultants, were generally forgotten soon after publication, the driving force behind those plans being external pressure by bilateral donors and international agencies and propaganda-prestige motives. Real over-all economic management or consistent medium term planning of the whole economy never appeared to be an important factor in the decision-making process, possibly because those concepts are far too abstract and do not have short-term impact. The role of national accounting should therefore be limited to the provision of a general framework and factual support for public sector planning activities. In practice the United Nations system has been found far too complicated and ambitious, not sufficiently development planning oriented, and not suitable to the limited statistical resources available in the developing countries. The paper recommends the publication of several detailed “case studies” in national accounting, hoping that those studies might help to identify types of accounting systems appropriate to different existing constellations. In the meantime a drastic scaling down of the United Nations system should be undertaken; we should try to equate demand and supply of relevant information. In the final part, the paper considers planning requirements (timetable and flexibility, information required for a general assessment of the economy, crucial role of the publicsector, relative precision), statistical requirements (resources, data available, priorities, international reporting) and decision-makers’requirements (compactness, simplicity, background information, wishes of external aid donors) and recommends, as an interim measure, a simplified system of national accounts consisting of eight main tables.     

ON TRENDS IN THE GAP BETWEEN RICH AND POOR IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: WHY WE KNOW SO LITTLE

This paper considers the problems involved in measuring trends over time in inequality in less developed countries. After considering some of the conceptual problems involved in choosing a measure of economic welfare, the period it should cover, and the statistical units to which it should be applied, the paper goes on to draw up a list of minimum data requirements for reaching reliable conclusions about such trends. It concludes that in many countries the available information falls well short of the minimum list, and it explores various sources of indirect evidence on trends in distribution. The central argument is that the available data permit no easy tests for trends in the level of economic inequality in less developed countries. At present, the best bet is to complement evidence on income distribution with available data on consumption distribution and on wage trends and production aggregates by occupational and sectoral groups. Inconsistencies will highlight problem areas, and their reconciliation should provide a firmer foundation on which to draw conclusions about distributional trends.     

新时期中国城镇化发展的产业政策需求

新时期中国城镇化进入了一个快速发展的阶段,但同时,由户籍制度与依附其上的各种不平等关系以及国家的就业政策等造成的巨大的城乡就业压力,不仅成为国家经济发展与社会稳定亟待解决的重大课题,同样阻碍了我国城镇化的进程和人民生活水准的提高。作者认为,解决这一问题,要求国家调整产业政策的同时,消除对劳动密集型产业认识中的一些误区,重新认识劳动密集型产业,真正解决产业结构调整、就业政策与城镇化间的矛盾。     

世界经济发达国家出口问题初探

本文深入研究了世界经济发达国家出口商品经济活动的原因机制。并且认为经济发达国家出口工农矿初级产品、技术密集型产品行为构成了其出口商品活动的重要特征即经济双维贸易性特征。而且这是经济发达国家出口商品活动中极力追求的目标。     

STUDYING INEQUALITY IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF SINGLE-PERSON HOUSEHOLDS IN FOUR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

The increasing frequency of single-person households has become a major economic phenomenon, and is likely to become an important political force. This paper focuses on differences related to inequality of income distribution among single-person households in Europe's four largest economies, i.e. France, Germany, Italy and the U.K. Income distribution was modeled in terms of individual characteristics using a parametric model with heterogeneous model parameters. Poverty differences were also broken down using the results of Biewen and Jenkins (2005 ) in order to understand the relationship between poverty and individual characteristics among countries.     

THE FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE TO PUBLIC DEBT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Theoretical models on fiscal sustainability hypothesize that indebted governments can lower their current debt by generating future primary surpluses, ceteris paribus. While both developed and developing countries struggle with the issue of debt stabilization, the latter, in particular face heightened sensitivity from creditors, which provides them an impetus to respond more strongly to stabilize their debt. Based on a panel of 53 developing countries, we examine the fiscal response of these countries to changes in their debt‐to‐gross domestic product ratio. We find evidence of a positive relationship between the debt and primary surplus and that countries adjust along both the revenue and expenditure margins at roughly the same rate. (JEL E62, H50, O11)     

SOME INTERNATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN APPROACHES TO INDUSTRIAL POLICY

This paper reviews some general objectives and means of implementing industrial policy, and then focuses on what seem to be the key issues. Next, various patterns and results of industrial policy experiences in Japan and several Western European countries are reviewed and contrasted with the more limited U.S. industrial policy efforts. Finally, the discussion turns to key determinants of international competitiveness and limited ways in which U.S. governmental policies could make constructive contributions.     

BANKING SYSTEM CONCENTRATION AND LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE IN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES

Using data on 21 industrial countries from the period 1987 to 2009 and a large number of controls, this paper finds that a more concentrated banking sector is likely to raise the unemployment rate and reduce the employment rate. The magnitude of these effects appears to be moderate. The results are robust to potential endogeneity of the bank concentration variable as well as to numerous variations in specification. They are important because, as a consequence of the recent global financial crisis, many industrial countries have experienced both an increase in banking system concentration and a deterioration in labor market performance. (JEL E24, G21, J64, L16)     

INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS: PRIVATE VERSUS PUBLIC FLOWS IN DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Empirically, net capital inflows are procyclical in developed countries and countercyclical in developing countries. Private inflows are procyclical and public inflows are countercyclical in both groups of countries. The dominance of private (public) inflows in developed (developing) countries drives the difference in net inflows. We rationalize these patterns using a two-sector model of a small open economy facing borrowing constraints. Private agents overborrow because of the pecuniary externality arising from these constraints. The government saves to reduce aggregate debt, making the economy resilient to adverse shocks. Differences in borrowing constraints and shock processes across countries explain the empirical patterns of capital inflows.     

欠发达农区产业集群的网络组织结构及其区域效应分析

基于河南农区三个不同网络类型集群129家企业的调查,运用社会网络分析法,通过对比三个集群中的衍生网络、情感网络、咨询网络以及合作网络的网络特性,鉴别出欠发达农区集群网络中的核心节点、重要关系及不同网络组织类型的区域效应.研究发现:先导企业是集群衍生的孵化器,亲属或厂属关系是区域产业繁衍的关键渠道;大企业是技术创新和扩散的中心,供需关系和技术工人流动是区域学习的重要路径;中等企业是情谊联系的活跃点,长期合作关系能培养区域信任;中介组织与服务机构、"生产组织者"是企业间合作的"桥梁",上下游的经济联系对区域合作影响巨大.从集群的网络组织类型来看,混合性的转包网络和互补性的垂直网络比竞争性的水平网络对区域内的网络学习、信任培养、合作行动以及区域发展能带来更好的效果.     

中国企业对发达国家的逆向投资:创造性资产的分析视角

缺乏垄断优势的中国企业为什么要对发达国家进行逆向投资?这在现有的跨国公司理论中很难得到合理的解释。中国企业对发达国家的逆向投资是以寻求创造性资产为特定目标的战略性投资。在动态的全球竞争条件下,以寻求创造性资产为目标的海外投资并不以垄断优势为前提条件,具有局部竞争优势的中国企业可以通过逆向投资,采取在发达国家当地建厂、设立技术监听站和跨国并购等形式,寻求并获得未来竞争的关键性资源——创造性资产,并通过全球化来利用这些资产构建新型的资源和能力基础。     

CREDIT RATIONING,RISK AVERSION,AND INDUSTRIAL EVOLUTION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Relative to their counterparts in high‐income regions, entrepreneurs in developing countries face less efficient financial markets, more volatile macroeconomic conditions, and higher entry costs. This article develops a dynamic empirical model that links these features of the business environment to cross‐firm productivity distributions, entrepreneurs’ welfare, and patterns of industrial evolution. Fit to panel data on Colombian apparel producers, the model yields estimates of a credit market imperfection index, the sunk costs of creating a new business, and various technology parameters. Model‐based counterfactual experiments suggest that improved intermediation could dramatically increase the return on assets for entrepreneurial households with modest wealth.