Robust Estimates of Changes in Poverty and Inequality in Post‐Independence Namibia

We estimate changes in the distribution of household consumption expenditure in Namibia since independence in 1990 and the effects on poverty. To produce comparability between two household surveys, we use survey‐matching techniques, and we apply the framework of stochastic dominance to test the robustness of our results. The results reveal a significant decrease in the poverty headcount over the period and small but insignificant decreases in the country's extremely high levels of inequality. Decomposition analysis shows that poverty reduction in Namibia is largely driven by growth in mean incomes rather than redistribution. Even so, there have been important changes in inequality among different social groups especially as educational attainment has replaced ethnicity as the main determinant of between‐group inequality.     

Dynamics of Growth,Poverty and Inequality: A Panel Analysis of Regional Data from Thailand and the Philippines*

Using panel data for provinces compiled from household expenditure microdata, the present paper empirically investigates the relationships among growth, poverty and inequality in Thailand and the Philippines. The empirical model avoids the potential bias due to the fact that the entire distribution of individual‐level consumption changes over time and empirical variables for growth, poverty and inequality are often compiled from the consumption distribution. The system generalized method of moments estimation results strongly suggest that inequality reduced the growth rate of per‐capita consumption, and that differences in inequality explain a substantial portion of the Philippine–Thai difference in growth and poverty reduction since the late 1980s.     

POST‐TRANSITION POVERTY TRENDS BASED ON AN ALTERNATIVE DATA SOURCE1

This paper analyses a previously unused source of data – the All Media and Product Survey (AMPS) – to arrive at alternative estimates of the post‐transition poverty path. The motivations for using this non‐official data source are twofold: concern over the comparability of the existing official post‐transition datasets – the Income and Expenditure Survey (IES) and Population Census – and a desire to extend analysis of poverty trends beyond 2001. While official data sources are generally preferred for purposes of poverty analysis, the IES and Census collect data at long (5 or 10 year) intervals, and additional years pass before these datasets become available to the public. In some cases there is also concern about data comparability between surveys. The expenditure data contained in the General Household Survey are available annually, although data are captured in a small number of categories that are not very conducive to analysis at the lower end of the income distribution. Analysis on AMPS data confirms the large decline in poverty implied by an increase of R18 billion (in 2000 Rand) in social grant payments between 2000 and 2004. The direction of this trend is consistent with recent research findings based on more frequently analysed data sources, including the work done by Agüero, Carter and May (2005), Seekings (2006 ) and Meth (2006 ).     

The Interactions of Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the ASEAN-5 Countries: New Evidence Using a Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Approach

Abstract

Using a data-set from the ASEAN-5 countries over the January 2000–August 2013 period, this paper revisits the Granger causal nexus between the equity and foreign exchange markets by employing the bootstrap panel Granger causality approach developed by Kònya, which allows for both cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. The results indicate a unidirectional causality from stock prices to exchange rates in Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand and from exchange rates to stock prices in Indonesia. These findings have important implications for policy-makers and institutional investors who should rigidly monitor the dynamic linkages between stock price and exchange rate movements across the ASEAN-5 financial markets when making policy decisions and investing in these countries.     

创新与经济增长:基于区域面板数据的bootsrtap格兰杰因果关系检验

以专利授权量作为创新产出指标,应用面板数据的bootstrap 格兰杰因果关系的Wald 检验方法,在似不相关回归系统下,检验了我国长三角地区专利与区域经济增长之间的格兰杰因果关系。研究结果表明,浙江和上海两省市发明专利与经济增长之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,江苏省具有发明专利授权量对经济增长的单向因果关系,而安徽省两者之间不存在因果关系。另外,实用新型和外观设计专利与经济增长在所有省市都不存在任何方向的因果关系。     

EXPORT‐LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: FURTHER ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH ASIA

This paper examines the export‐led growth (ELG) hypothesis for five South Asian countries through cointegration and multivariate Granger causality tests. Strong support for a long‐run relationship among exports, imports, and real output for all the countries except Sri Lanka were found. Feedback effects between exports and GDP for Bangladesh and Nepal and unidirectional causality from exports to output in the case of Pakistan were found. No causality between these variables was found for Sri Lanka and India, although for India GDP and exports did induce imports. A feedback effect between imports and GDP was also documented for Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, as well as unidirectional causality from imports to output growth for Sri Lanka. These and other findings are discussed from the standpoint of the export‐led growth hypothesis.     

Updating Poverty Maps without Panel Data: Evidence from Vietnam*

A household survey and a census can be combined to estimate a poverty map for small areas. Ideally, the survey and the census should be conducted in the same year. In several empirical applications, however, survey and census years can be different, which might make poverty estimates biased. Using data from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey 2002 and the 1999 Population and Housing Census, the present paper produces a 2002 poverty map for Vietnam and describes the biases when the survey and census years are not coincident. It is found that poverty estimates from the poverty mapping method taking into account the time difference between the survey and the census are quite close to survey‐based estimates, at least at the regional level.     

Trade Liberalization,Economic Restructuring and Urban Poverty: The Case of China*

Increased trade openness and rapid market-oriented transformation have largely altered the patterns of wealth accumulation and wealth distribution in post-reform China. In the present paper, with the help of Chinese provincial level data over the period of 1986 to 2000, simultaneous equations estimation and generalized method of moment techniques are applied to investigate the relationship between trade and poverty in urban China. Empirical results suggest that China's trade liberalization helps to reduce urban poverty both directly and indirectly through its favorable impacts on economic growth.     

Poverty and Inequality Maps in Rural Vietnam: An Application of Small Area Estimation

The objective of the present paper is to estimate poverty and inequality for rural Vietnam at different levels of aggregation by combining the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey from 2006 and the Rural Agriculture and Fishery Census from the same year. Using the small area estimation method, estimates at the regional, provincial and district level are produced, and both expenditure and income based measures are considered. It is found that all provinces across the country have experienced a noticeable reduction in rural poverty during the period 1999–2006. Some of the largest reductions in poverty are observed for provinces with poverty rates close to the national average. The poorest provinces are experiencing reductions in poverty, albeit at a more modest pace. Provinces and districts with a larger poverty reduction in the period 1999–2006 tended to have a lower level of inequality in 2006. Results based on expenditure poverty estimates are found to be very similar to those based on income poverty estimates.     

Trade Integration with the European Union: Poverty Impacts in Ecuador

The government of Ecuador is seeking to negotiate a trade agreement with the European Union (EU). This study examines the impacts of such a trade agreement on rural and urban poverty in Ecuador by combining a household income and occupational choice model with a computable general equilibrium model. The results suggest that a trade agreement with the EU may have a significant impact on poverty. However, the nature and extent of the impact varies depending on the degree of initial tariff reduction, labor market considerations, and whether Ecuadorian bananas are granted better access to the EU market.     

Trade Opening,Fiscal Reforms,Poverty, and Inequality: A CGE Analysis for Bangladesh

We assess the short‐ and long‐run impacts of tariff reform policies on Bangladeshi households' poverty and income distribution by developing an 86‐sector, four‐factor, and nine‐household‐group computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The main findings are that the complete removal of tariffs leads to a decrease in overall poverty with rich household groups in a relatively better position. In the short run poverty incidence increases for rural landless, urban illiterate, and low‐educated household groups whereas rural large farmer and urban medium household groups enjoy improvements in all poverty indicators. In terms of income distribution, trade liberalization enhances inequality slightly, but there is a tendency towards more equitable distribution in the long run. The choice of a fiscal compensatory mechanism with consumption tax is likely to play a negative role in terms of poverty and inequality in the short run; however, interestingly, the results are pro‐poor in the long run.     

Poverty Effects of the Philippines’ Tariff Reduction Program: Insights from a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis*

A computable general equilibrium micro‐simulation model is used to assess the economic and poverty impacts of tariff reduction in the Philippines. Tariff reduction induces consumers to substitute cheaper imported agricultural products for domestic goods, thereby resulting in a contraction in agricultural output. In contrast, tariff reduction reduces the domestic cost of production, benefiting the outward‐oriented and import‐dependent industrial sector. The national poverty headcount decreases marginally as lower consumer prices outweigh the nominal income reduction experienced by the majority of households. However, both the poverty gap and severity of poverty worsens, implying that the poorest of the poor become even poorer.     

China and Natural Resource Curse in Developing Countries: Empirical Evidence from a Cross‐country Study

China's rising demand for natural resources and its growing presence in many poor and resource‐rich countries have been criticized for promoting neo‐colonialism in the 21st century. Using panel data for 135 developing countries from 1995 to 2007, the present paper empirically evaluates the validity of such claims. Our findings do not support the resource curse thesis in the areas of industrialization and economic growth. Moreover, the effect of resources is conditional on the initial quality of political institutions in a country.     

External Shocks and High Volatility in Consumption in Low‐Income Countries

According to the well‐known concept of consumption smoothing, the volatility of consumption is low even when income is volatile; this is confirmed by data from G7 countries. Surprisingly, however, consumption volatility in many low‐income countries is nontrivially higher than income volatility. Here I examine what causes high consumption volatility in low‐income countries. In general, volatile consumption makes consumers worse off. Therefore, understanding the causes of high consumption volatility can contribute to improving welfare in low‐income countries by suggesting measures to assist in the stabilization of consumption. Unlike much previous research, I focus on international factors when explaining high consumption volatility. The results suggest that external shocks, which are far more volatile in low‐income countries than in industrialized countries, strongly swing consumption. By capturing these mechanisms, the model I use successfully accounts for consumption volatility's differences between the sample low‐income country and sample industrialized country.     

LIBERALISING TRADE IN SOUTH AFRICA: A SURVEY OF COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM STUDIES

This paper reviews applications of computable general equilibrium models to trade liberalisation in South Africa. It focuses on economic structure, data, macroeconomic closure and results of the models. The models project that trade liberalisation has had small positive impacts on growth. Poverty and inequality outcomes are less clear cut and depend on the model used. Models with fully integrated micro data find that poverty has worsened slightly while inequality has risen. Aggregated models predict that poverty has been reduced by small amounts. Dynamic models report rising inequality but falling poverty incidence. The paper identifies areas for future research.     

SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA1

This paper provides some empirical evidence on the sources of growth in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Within the classical convergence framework, several macroeconomic, socio and political factors are identified as affecting the steady state growth paths of the SSA countries. The rejection of the constant technology growth rate assumption implied by the linearised Solow‐Swan growth specification suggests differences in the economies' technology growth rates. An endogenous technology growth model is estimated to measure contributions of diminishing returns and technology transfer to the rate of conditional convergence in the region. The results carry important policy implications for improving the standard of living and economic growth rate of African countries.     

Community‐driven Development: A Viable Approach to Poverty Reduction in Rural Burkina Faso

Abstract: Various efforts by national governments, non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) and international donors have shown limited success in reducing poverty in sub‐Saharan Africa. As a result, poverty is still persistent in most households especially in rural areas. The persistence of poverty on the continent can be in part attributed to the top‐down approach to development adopted by various poverty alleviation programs. This paper focuses on poverty reduction programs in Burkina Faso and argues that a community‐driven approach to development and poverty reduction has the potential of lifting rural populations out of poverty trap.     

Economic Restructuring,Informal Jobs and Pro‐poor Growth in Urban China

Based on household survey datasets and the framework of pro‐poor growth, the present paper discusses how economic growth and inequality affect poverty reduction in urban China. The findings in this paper suggest that the poor benefit from economic growth through the trickle‐down effect, but that the poor benefit disproportionally less than the nonpoor in both periods, from 1988 to 1995 and from 1995 to 2002; however, in the latter period, the pro‐poorness is higher than that of the former period. Using the principle of Shapley decomposition, this paper develops an index of pro‐poor growth for each income component, and finds that the income from informal jobs is the main contributor to the pro‐poorness of growth during the period 1995 to 2002.