Catching Up and Convergence: Long-run Growth in East Asia

The paper attempts to combine the traditional learning model with the recent theory of economic growth using Maddison's long‐run real GDP per capita data of the three fastest growing countries in East Asia: Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. The authors first explain games of catching‐up among nations, and then explain the learning coefficients of Taiwan and Korea with Japan and the United States through periods before and after World War II. The model of leaning leads to the logistic model of economic growth of convergence between two countries. Using time‐series data, the coefficients of a logistic model are estimated to confirm that the real GDP per capita of Taiwan and Korea are converging to that of Japan and the United States, respectively. Similarly, Japan's GDP per capita converges to that of the United States. The time required for finite convergence for these countries is also estimated.     

基于货币需求的货币替代研究——以台湾为例

台湾曾经是日本的殖民地,且因地理位置的关系,所以日本一直都是台湾的主要贸易国家,以致于长期对台湾货币体系及外汇市场的影响力不亚于美国。然而过去对于台湾货币需求的研究,多半以美国作为主要对象国家来研究。现如今民众可多元地持有国际性资产,单一探讨美国的影响或许不够全面。本文根据1985-2008年的资料,研究美国和日本的货币性冲击对台湾货币需求的影响。首先通过台湾对美、日的贸易比重,编制有效汇率和有效利率,作为衡量来自两国货币性冲击的依据。其次以向量误差修正模型进行分析,找出台湾货币需求的长期均衡关系,发现台湾的货币需求与本国产出、本国利率、美日两国有效利率及有效汇率等存在显著长期均衡关系。简言之,台湾货币体系对来自美国和日本的干扰因素,具有高度的敏感性。     

Individual Preferences for Trade Partners in Taiwan

This article investigates economic factors and non‐economic factors of individual attitudes toward free‐trade agreements with different countries. Based on the Stolper–Samuelson theorem, highly skilled workers in Taiwan should be more supportive of free trade with China and less supportive of free trade with the United States than should unskilled workers in Taiwan. Using survey data from Taiwan, we find that highly educated people in Taiwan are more supportive of free trade with both the United States and China, and the effects of education are much stronger with respect to free trade with China. We also find that individual risk attitudes, national identity, and ethnicity play important roles in explaining trade preferences.     

Revisiting Leontief’s paradox

According to the popular Heckscher-Ohlin model of international trade, a country is expected to export (import) those products whose production requires the intensive use of the factor of production that is in relative abundance (scarcity). Leontief (1953), using input–output data of the US economy for the year 1947, found that the US, an overwhelmingly capital-abundant country, exported labour-intensive products and imported capital-intensive ones. Clearly, the results contradicted the predictions of the Heckscher-Ohlin model and they were characterised as ‘Leontief’s paradox’. A number of explanations for the so-called paradox were offered and this paper briefly, but critically, evaluates these explanations as it examines whether or not Leontief’s results persist in the case of the US economy during the period 1998–2012.     

STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF INPUT–OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS ON THE BASIS OF USE AND MAKE TABLES

Although technical coefficients are estimated on the basis of flow data (use and make matrices), they are rarely treated as random variables. If this is done, an error term is added to the coefficients, rather than derived from the distribution of the data. Even so, the calculation of multipliers, by means of the Leontief inverse, is difficult. Due to the nonlinearity of this operation, the multiplier estimates are biased. By going back to the flow data, this paper provides unbiased and consistent employment and output multipliers estimates for the Andalusian economy. Rectangular use and make matrices are accommodated and problems associated with the construction and estimation of technical coefficients and the Leontief inverse are circumvented.     

Pass-through in dollarized countries: should Ecuador abandon the US dollar?

In this article, we examine the convenience of dollarization for Ecuador today. As Ecuador is strongly integrated financially and commercially with the United States, the exchange rate pass-through should be zero. However, we sustain that rising rates of imports from trade partners other than the United States and subsequent real effective exchange rate depreciations are causing the pass-through to move away from zero. Here, in the framework of the Vector Error Correction Model, we analyse the impulse response function and variance decomposition of the inflation variable. We show that the developing economy of Ecuador is importing inflation from its main trading partners, most of them emerging countries with appreciated currencies. We argue that if Ecuador recovered both its monetary and exchange rate instruments, it would be able to fight against inflation. We believe such an analysis could be extended to other countries with pegged exchange rate regimes.     

基于相对价格线的里昂惕夫之谜的理论探讨

对里昂惕夫之谜的现有解释只是就里昂惕夫之谜解释里昂惕夫之谜,而没有跳出里昂惕夫之谜的思想框架。利用生产可能性边界、社会无差异曲线和相对价格线分析工具,通过几何方法,分析消费均衡点和生产均衡点的不同位置关系,可以认定理论上确实存在里昂惕夫之谜,我们可以通过国民经济发展阶段学说,对里昂惕夫之谜作出新的理论解释。     

Global and Regional Geo-strategic Implications of China's Emergence

Now that China's "re-emergence" as a world center of production is obvious, concerns about its implications are being raised throughout the world, in general, and particularly in East Asia. China's economic growth is nothing but spectacular. If all parties are rational, however, a peaceful rise for China is possible. Peaceful management of the Taiwan Strait is critical in this respect. There are two possible scenarios for the peaceful rise of China: a unilateralist China in the multipolar world of competition, and a multilateralist, postmodern China embedded in an East Asian community. It is in the interest of Japan, the United States and other countries in the international society to induce China to take the latter scenario. To realize this goal, efforts on the part of China are critical, but the efforts of other countries such as the United States and Japan are also very important.     

The United States is a Small Country in World Trade*

Despite being the largest country in world trade and thus presumably having high optimal tariffs, the United States has long had low and declining levels of protection. This paradox suggests that the United States is failing to exploit its monopsony power by levying optimal tariffs. Using data on world output and trade flows, we find that the United States is a small country in world trade in that its trade policies have negligible impacts on world prices. In the median manufacturing industry, US tariffs reduce world prices by only 0.12%. United States optimal tariffs are also typically small (3.6% in the median industry) and are lower than existing US tariffs in most industries. It is no puzzle that the United States has been a champion of free trade since the 1930s—the United States, like other small countries, benefits economically from tariff reductions.     

The relationship between the Vietnam stock market and its major trading partners – TECM with bivariate asymmetric GARCH model

This study employs threshold error-correction model with bivariate Glosten–Jagannathan–Runkle-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to examine the relationship between the Vietnam stock market and its major trading partners, the United States, Japan, Singapore and China. The results indicate that the Vietnam stock market and return risks are influenced by Japan and Singapore stock markets. We also find that the volatility of stock market in Vietnam and its trading countries have an asymmetrical effect. These findings could be valuable to individual investors and financial institutions holding long-run investment portfolios in the Vietnam stock market.     

The persistence in real exchange rate: Evidence from East Asian countries

In this article, we examine the degree of persistence in monthly real exchange rate of six East Asian countries in relation to their two major trading partners, the United States and Japan, to study the validity of PPP for the 1976:01–2009:03 period. To investigate the persistency in real exchange rate series, we use sum of the autoregressive (AR) coefficients and the confidence interval for it using grid-bootstrap procedure recently developed by Hansen (1999). We have two findings: first, we find evidence for high persistency in real exchange rate in terms of the Japanese yen for five countries and for four countries in terms of the US dollar the for the full and pre-crisis sample periods. Second, for the post-crisis period, the presence of low persistency in real exchange rate supports PPP for three countries in terms of the Japanese yen and five countries in terms of the US dollar. These findings indicate that real exchange rate series of five East Asian countries are mean-revert based on their exchange rate policies and East Asian countries can form a currency union.     

The relevance of input substitution in the inter-industry model

Using 17 annual input-output tables of the Maltese economy, this study examines the effect of input prices on input-output coefficients. The Leontief production function is substituted by the generalised Leontief cost function and input demand functions are derived. The empirical result that 56 percent of these derived input demand functions have a relative price variable which is significant indicates that, in general, the Leontief specification is rejected in favour of the generalised Leontief form used in this study. This result, along with a marked improvement in forecasting ability, suggests that this modification of the traditional Leontief specification is worthwhile.     

Empirical foundations for the resurrection of Heckscher–Ohlin theory

We decompose the factor content of trade into Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek trade and Ricardian trade. We measure factor content using only the United States' technology and also as Leontief advocated, using the local technology. In either case, differences in endowments are quite important in explaining the factor content of trade. If one uses raw estimated coefficients as a means of comparison, differences in endowments are ten times as important as differences in technology.     

North America: A case for economic integration

The recent protectionist trend in trade policy in the United States and other OECD countries is making it more difficult for debtor countries, such as Mexico, to meet their external obligations. In contrast, Mexico and most other debtor nations have adopted more liberal trade policies in recent years. The success of the United States-Canada Free Trade Agreement will expand trading opportunities in the North American economies; however, Mexico is expected to encounter difficulties in competing in this market because of the barriers to trade and investment flows that have existed in the past. This paper discusses the potential impact of a North American Free Trade Agreement on the Mexican economy and the prospects for such an agreement in the current political economy.     

The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico

Since studies of North American trade flows tend to focus on the United States as the main trading partner, trade between Canada and Mexico has received relatively little attention. Here, we examine bilateral trade flows for 62 Canadian export industries to Mexico and 45 import industries from Mexico to assess the effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on these individual trade flows. We find that Mexico’s largest export industries respond to depreciation more than Canada’s largest export industries do. Both countries’ trade flows are influenced even more by trade integration. Since there is evidence of strong intra-industry trade between these two countries, we can attribute this effect to the exploitation of economies of scale.     

Economic Integration Among Taiwan, Hong Kong and China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper investigates the effects of economic integration among Taiwan, Hong Kong and China (CEA). A seven-region, seven-sector computable general equilibrium model for world production and trade is developed for this purpose. The simulation results demonstrate that the three Chinese economies would benefit greatly from further integration by means of liberalizing trade policies. The opportunity cost of isolating the United States from East Asia is high for both the US and the three Chinese economies, suggesting that an economically integrated CEA is in the long-term strategic interest of the United States.     

BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA: IMPLICATIONS OF THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This study's primary objective is to evaluate empirically the economic effects of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The paper emphasizes bilateral trade flows of agricultural and industrial products between the United States and Canada, given that the FTA removes tariff and non-tariff barriers. It evaluates the FTA's impact on the two countries' trade with third countries. The paper specifies a traditional log-linear trade model consisting of import demand and export supply equations for both agricultural and industrial products. It uses quarterly time-series U.S. and Canadian trade data for 1972–1985.
The study uses the two-stage least-squares estimator to estimate the models. The models had R coefficients ranging from 0.78 to 0.99, indicating that the models' explanatory variables explain most causes of variations in the dependent variable. This study reveals that U.S. imports of agricultural and industrial products from Canada were more sensitive than were Canadian imports not only to import and domestic prices but also to world prices. This is because Canadian consumers have less domestic substitutes than do their U.S. counterparts. Also, Canada has a smaller internal market than does the United States. The study estimates that U.S. imports from Canada will increase $2.8 billion while Canadian imports from the United States will increase $1.2 billion. The impact on the two countries' trade with third-party countries will be insignificant.     

Multinational firms, international trade and international telecommunications

The study analyses the determinants of international telephone, telex, telegram and leased lines communication between the United States and 46 countries. It focusses on the role of multinational firms, international trading firms and new information technologies within the framework of the theory of transaction costs.Results of the econometric estimates suggest that: (a) technological conditions of telecommunication infrastructure, i.e., international diffusion lags of new information technologies, play an important role in the explanation of international telephone and telex telecommunication flows but not in the demand for telegraph and leased lines, (b) multinational firms use international telecommunication to reduce the coordination costs and are strong customers of leased lines and telephones, but less so of telex and telegrams, (c) international trading firms exhibit less clear preferences in the use of the different media to reduce transaction costs.     

Income Inequality and Income Mobility in the Scandinavian Countries Compared to the United States

This paper compares income inequality and income mobility in the Scandinavian countries and the United States during 1980–90. The results suggest that inequality is greater in the United States than in the Scandinavian countries and that this inequality ranking of countries remains unchanged when the accounting period of income is extended from one to eleven years. The pattern of mobility turns out to be remarkably similar, in the sense that the proportionate reduction in inequality from extending the accounting period of income is much the same. But we do find evidence of greater dispersion of first differences of relative earnings and income in the United States. Relative income changes are associated with changes in labor market and marital status in all four countries, but the magnitude of such changes are largest in the United States.     

CORPORATE LEVERAGE AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

This paper examines the pattern of corporate leverage in the United States during the 1980s. Firms in other countries increased their debt during this period. However, the United States was the only major industrialized country in which firms experienced increases in both leverage and interest burden. Previous studies analyzing the distribution of corporate debt across sectors in the United States concluded that to the extent a pattern is discernible, highly indebted firms are concentrated in the stable sectors. This study confirms this earlier finding but shows that the U.S. firms that have been increasing their leverage most rapidly have been concentrated in cyclical sectors.