Dissecting the Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on the Korean Economy

Micro- as well as macro-level analyses on the terms of trade (TOT) for Korea are conducted. We demonstrate that the deteriorated TOT since the mid-1990s are largely attributable to declines in export prices of manufacturing goods and surges in energy import prices. A further investigation using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model identified by sign restrictions on impulse responses suggests that the structural innovation that reduces export prices and increases import prices is the most significant driver of the TOT fluctuations in Korea. Although the shock deteriorates the TOT, it is clearly associated with an expansionary effect on output, which is more pronounced at longer horizons.     

Fiscal Policy Reforms in a Global Economy

Two countries are populated by workers and capitalists. Their governments collect taxes to finance productive expenditure and income redistribution. The share of income redistributed defines the size of the welfare state. Although both groups benefit from an abolition of the welfare state in the long run, the optimal fiscal policy in autarky can be characterized by maintaining a large welfare state since transfer cuts would induce transitional losses. Starting in such a position of policy inertia free trade and capital mobility is introduced. Fiscal policy competition leads to a reduction of tax rates and a relative increase of productive expenditure. If both countries coordinate their fiscal policy the reduction of taxes and income transfers is less pronounced. Quantitative effects of increasing globalization are assessed in a calibrated model for an average Europe G-4 country and the United States.     

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective

In this article we analyze the effectiveness of fiscal policy—for a group of four Central and Eastern European countries. The recent literature shows that fiscal multipliers in the developed economies are higher during recession than expansion. So far, similar empirical analyses have been lacking for CEE countries. The results presented in this article show that fiscal multipliers in CEE countries differ with respect to the phase of the business cycle. Based on the SVAR methodology in which we allow for deterministic regime switching, we show that the government spending multipliers are significantly higher when the output gap is negative.     

Dynamic Career Incentive Versus Policy Rent-Seeking in Institutionalized Authoritarian Regimes: Testing a Long-Run Model of Trade Policy Determination in China

Abstract:

In this paper, I study the effect of political elites’ career incentives on China’s trade policy formation. I propose a theoretical dynamic view in which China’s authoritarian leaders can preempt protectionist actions of their selectorate (bureaucrats) by offering them future promotion opportunities within the authoritarian hierarchy as long as the leaders can credibly commit to these political promises. Drawing on a database of China’s sectors for 1999–2007, the empirical results support the dynamic perspective that while political organization still matters for China’s trade policy outcomes, it is less likely for a sector with a higher promotion expectation score to get politically organized.     

完善财税支持政策 促进中小企业发展

我国中小企业向好发展的态势虽已渐趋明朗,但事实表明,我国现行针对中小企业的财税支持政策仍不够完备、有力。从我国现行财税支持政策存在的不足及国际社会支持中小企业发展的成功经验来看,未来我国财税支持政策的重构应注重政府行为与市场行为的衔接互动,在强化支持力度的基础上,重点鼓励中小企业进行技术研发与运用、加快设备更新和增加社会就业。     

Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia

The presence of the lagged shadow policy rate in the interest rate feedback rule reduces the government spending multiplier nontrivially when the policy rate is constrained at the zero lower bound (ZLB). In the economy with policy inertia, increased inflation and output due to higher government spending during a recession speed up the return of the policy rate to the steady state after the recession ends, which in turn damps the expansionary effects of the government spending during the recession via expectations. In our baseline experiment intended to capture the effectiveness of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the output multiplier at the ZLB is 1.9 when the weight on the lagged shadow rate is zero, and 0.5 when the weight is 0.85.     

转变外贸出口方式的税收政策选择

本文比较了不同外贸出口方式的税收政策,认为加工贸易出口的税收政策要优于一般贸易出口。在加工贸易出口方式中来料加工与进料加工贸易出口的税收政策也不尽一致。不均衡的外贸出口税收政策无益于我国外贸出口方式的转变,以及外贸出口的健康稳定和持续增长。为此,应以一般贸易出口为主、其他贸易出口为辅的外贸出口方针为指引,不同外贸方式的税收政策应统一;要进一步规范加工贸易出口的税收政策;实施鼓励使用国产料件的税收政策等。     

从蒙代尔一弗莱明模型看我国财政政策与货币政策的配合

按照蒙代尔一弗莱明模型的分析,在有效需求严重不足时,应采用财政政策和货币政策的双松搭配.从我国近年所实施的积极财政政策和稳健货币政策来看,确实对拉动经济增长发挥了重要作用,但两者在配合操作中还存在一定问题.面对不稳定的国际环境,若要实现经济增长,我国须采用财政政策和货币政策的双松组合,而且还需进一步加强两者之间的协调配合.     

跨境贸易人民币结算量与货币供应量、汇率波动互动关系

通过构建向量自回归模型（VAR）的方法,对我国跨境贸易人民币结算波动、进出口贸易总额波动、汇率波动之间的动态关系进行研究,试图揭示其三者之间存在的相互关系。研究结果显示：货币供应量波动、汇率波动于跨境贸易人民币结算量波动之间存在长期稳定均衡关系。长期内,汇率波动对跨境贸易人民币结算量波动具有正向促进作用;货币供应量波动对其具有反向促进作用。格兰杰因果关系显示跨境贸易人民币结算量波动是汇率波动的单向Granger原因,同时也是货币供应量波动单向Granger原因;汇率波动在是货币供应量波动的单向Granger原因。脉冲响应函数结果显示：跨境贸易人民币结算量波动对来自其自身冲击的响应在三种变量冲击中最为明显;货币供应量对来自其自身及其他变量的脉冲均有较为明显的响应;汇率对来自其自身冲击的响应在三种变量冲击中最为明显。     

Strategic Environmental Policy and International Trade in Asymmetric Oligopoly Markets

This paper examines optimal cooperative and non-cooperative environmental taxes for the case in which a polluting input is used to produce an internationally-traded finished product. The model allows for terms-of-trade effects under oligopoly and employs a general specification of the environmental damage function that encompasses special cases of local, global, and transboundary externalities. The model has several implications for public finance. For example, inefficiently high environmental taxes may be optimal for a net exporting country in non-cooperative circumstances, as the motive to shift rent by selecting an inefficiently low tax rate is countervailed by the incentive to shift the burden of the tax to foreign consumers. The findings identify the important role of asymmetric trade flows (denominated in both goods and pollution exchange) in determining optimal cooperative and non-cooperative tax policy under oligopoly.     

A Model of the Confidence Channel of Fiscal Policy

This article presents a simple macroeconomic model where government spending affects aggregate demand directly and indirectly, through an expectational channel. Prices are fully flexible and the model is static, so intertemporal issues play no role. There are three important elements in the model: (i) fixed adjustment costs for investment, which create an inaction zone; (ii) noisy idiosyncratic information about the aggregate economy; and (iii) imperfect substitution among private goods and goods provided by the government. An increase in government spending raises demand for private goods and may prevent a coordination failure. The optimal level of government expenditure is high when the desired level of investment is low, which we interpret as a time of low economic activity.     

Growth and Welfare Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Investment

In this paper we analyze growth and welfare effects of fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model along the balanced growth path. As to the model we assume that sustained per capita growth results from public investment. The government uses its tax revenue for investment in public capital, for investment subsidy and for transfer payments. We then analyze how the balanced growth rate reacts to variations in those policy variables. Further, we study welfare effects of varying the fiscal parameters and demonstrate that, in general, maximizing economic growth is not equivalent to maximizing welfare on the balanced growth path.     

中国对外贸易：2009年形势分析及2010年前景展望

在全球金融危机背景下,2009年我国对外贸易大幅下滑,但降幅小于欧美日,我国出口占全球出口的比重提升,主要贸易伙伴格局未变。随着国际经济的触底回升,我国对外贸易降幅逐步收窄。劳动密集型产品相对抗跌,机电和高新技术产品成为出口复苏的主要动力。2010年世界经济将缓慢复苏,中国对外贸易将出现恢复性增长。同时也应看到,当前全球经济复苏的基础尚不稳固,中国对外贸易形势仍比较严峻。     

Trade Openness and Exchange Rate Regimes

The paper evaluates the net welfare gains of inflation targeting over a fixed exchange rate as a function of a country's trade openness, using a multisectoral structural model calibrated to Chile. For most calibrations with separable preferences, net welfare gains are increasing in trade openness. The reason is that in more open economies terms of trade shocks, which favor inflation targeting, become quantitatively more important, while price markup shocks in the imperfectly competitive nontradables sector, which favor exchange rate targeting, become less important. The most important exception is heavily indebted countries, where net welfare gains are decreasing in trade openness.     

我国财政政策和货币政策相互作用的实证研究——基于政策在价格决定中的作用

本文选取1980～2009年度数据为样本,利用MS-VAR模型检验我国财政政策和货币政策在价格决定中的作用区制。实证结果表明,在1980～1997年间,价格为货币政策主导区制;之后为财政政策主导区制。为检验该结果的稳健性,本文分别对李嘉图等式和财富效应进行分样本区间的实证分析。最后,本文选取1996～2010年的月度数据,利用MS-OLS模型检验财政政策和货币政策与价格的关系,发现我国互补的宏观经济政策在稳定物价上是有效的。     

我国对外贸易中的突出问题及其政策性因素分析

我国对外贸易在取得很大成绩的同时也存在一些突出问题：贸易结构不合理造成的“有贸易无产业”的现象、过大的贸易顺差加剧了贸易摩擦、产业的贸易竞争力较低、资源和环境代价巨大等.这些问题与贸易政策关系密切,其中,政策不完善和缺乏前瞻性,政府调整惰性是主要因素.     

保障贸易政策稳定促进对外贸易持续健康发展

为了促进经济结构调整和产业升级、转变经济增长方式,自2005年5月以来,中国相继实施了一系列取消或降低出口退税率、出台禁止和限制类加工贸易产品清单等政策措施。虽然当前有关贸易统计数据还没有准确反映出中国对外贸易形势的变化,但是东部地区已开始面临中小企业经营困难、就业压力进一步增大、部分外商投资企业撤离等问题。本文认为,这主要是出口退税政策不稳定和"两高一资"产品涉及面过广等原因造成的,建议暂不宜出台新的贸易政策和暂缓执行某些影响重大的贸易政策。     

汇率风险与中国出口贸易的动态关系

应用GARCH模型、自回归分布滞后模型和Johansen协整检验,实证分析汇率风险与中国出口贸易的动态关系。结果显示:中国实际有效汇率变动率存在着异方差;实际有效汇率的变动对出口存在较明显的J曲线效应;GARCH模型估计的随时间变动的汇率风险对出口的影响存在着滞后效应;汇率风险在短期内对出口的影响不确定,长期的影响为负。因此,中国在制定出口贸易政策时,应考虑到J曲线效应并保持汇率的稳定性。     

论日美战略性贸易政策的异同

战略性贸易政策理论为政府干预提供了新的依据,日本和美国都是战略性贸易政策成功实施的范例。尽管在实施背景、特征和手段等方面存在着细节上的差别,但两国的战略性贸易政策有着相同的核心目标和战略主张,并且都获得了巨大的经济利益。     

Assessing Economic and Fiscal Reforms in Lebanon: A Dynamic CGE Analysis with Debt Constraints

Since the early 1990s, Lebanon has undertaken a number of economic reforms, covering international trade and internal fiscal policy issues in particular. Simultaneously, debt has been skyrocketing, partially justified by reconstruction needs after the end of the civil war. Fostering economic growth seems to be the only way out of the debt trap, but reforms intended to stimulate growth may well have adverse short-run effects on public and external deficits. We construct a dynamic open-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with debt constraints in the sense that external debt requires physical capital as collateral. The CGE model allows us to study the effects of a number of important economic policy issues, such as fiscal policy reform, World Trade Organization (WTO) membership, and foreign direct investment, in a multisectoral dynamic setting under the realistic assumption that debt constraints relax when the economy starts growing. Included in the results are reports on scenarios of trade liberalization and political stabilization.