Diversification in euro area stock markets: Country versus industry

The harmonization of fiscal and economic policy within the European Monetary Union (EMU) has had a considerable impact on the economies of member countries. In particular, several studies indicate that the proceeding economic integration among euro area countries has important consequences for the factors driving asset returns in financial markets. However, these studies rely on one specific methodology [Heston, S.L., Rouwenhorst, K.G., 1994. Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification? Journal of Financial Economics 36, 3–27; Heston, S.L., Rouwenhorst, K.G., 1995. Industry and country effects in international stock returns. Journal of Portfolio Management Spring, 53–58], that has recently been criticized as too restrictive. This study adopts a mean–variance approach instead. Using recent euro area stock markets data, we find strong evidence that diversification over industries yields more efficient portfolios than diversification over countries.     

An investigation of the stability of returns in Western European equity markets

This paper investigates the temporal stability of various dimensions of the returns of 16 European stock markets that are relevant to an analysis of international portfolio diversification. The basic data consist of daily stock market price indices for these markets. This group of indices comprehends a wide range of stock markets differentiated by size, age and technological sophistication, but in each case located in Western Europe. Two main tests were conducted: (a) ANOVA to identify inter-temporal variability and inter-market variability over 24 three-month sub-periods from January 1989 to December 1994, and (b) cluster analysis to identify groups of markets that exhibit similar behaviour patterns. The findings suggest that, while the potential gains from an internationally diversified portfolio restricted to the equities of Western European markets appear to be substantial, the lack of inter-temporal stability in the composition of the optimal portfolio from one period to another makes these gains difficult to achieve in practice.     

Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets

In this paper, we focus on the tails of the unconditional distribution of Latin American emerging markets stock returns. We explore their implications for portfolio diversification according to the safety first principle, first proposed by Roy [Econometrica (1952) 20, 431]. We find that the Latin American emerging markets have significantly fatter tails than industrial markets, especially, the lower tail of the distribution. We consider the implication of the safety first principle for a US investor who creates a diversified portfolio using Latin American stock markets. We find that a US investor gains by adding Latin American equity markets to her purely domestic portfolio. For different parameter specifications, we find a more realistic asset allocation than the one suggested by the literature based on the traditional mean-variance framework.     

Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes

We investigate the existence of long-run relations between emerging Central European stock markets and the mature stock markets of Europe and the United States. Allowing for instability in these long-run relations, we obtain evidence of links between the Central European markets that is stronger than has previously been reported. We also show that the Central European markets display equilibrium relations with their mature counterparts, which persist after controlling for structural changes. It follows that Central European markets have become more integrated with global markets.     

Art as an investment: risk, return and portfolio diversification in major painting markets

The present paper examines risk, return and the prospects for portfolio diversification among major painting and financial markets over the period 1976–2001. The art markets examined are Contemporary Masters, French Impressionists, Modern European, 19th Century European, Old Masters, Surrealists, 20th Century English and Modern US paintings. The financial markets comprise US Treasury bills, corporate and government bonds and small and large company stocks. In common with the published literature in this area, the present study finds that the returns on paintings are much lower and the risks much higher than conventional investment markets. Moreover, while low correlations of returns suggest that opportunities for portfolio diversification in art works alone and in conjunction with equity markets exist, the construction of Markowitz mean‐variance efficient portfolios indicates that no diversification gains are provided by art in financial asset portfolios. However, diversification benefits in portfolios comprised solely of art works are possible, with Contemporary Masters, 19th Century European, Old Masters and 20th Century English paintings dominating the efficient frontier during the period in question.     

Is portfolio diversification possible in integrated markets? Evidence from South Eastern Europe

A remarkable process of financial integration has taken place throughout the world capital markets over the last decades. In line with this integration process, the effect of financial integration locally and/or globally has been one of the contemporary topics of interest to academics, practitioners as well as policy makers. In this study, we investigate the availability of portfolio diversification benefits after the initiation of the South Eastern Europe Link (the SEE Link) trading platform in 2016 as a connecting hub for stock markets in the South Eastern European region. Our empirical methodology is primarily based on various static and dynamic correlation (Dynamic Conditional Correlation-GARCH) and regression (Autoregressive Distributed Lag, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares, Markov Switching Regression Model and Kalman Filter Model) analyses. We employ our methods for a daily frequency stock exchange (namely, the Zagreb Stock Exchange and Bulgarian Stock Exchange) return data between January 4, 2005 and December 30, 2019. The findings reveal that the two stock exchanges have a significantly decreasing pattern of correlation and regression relationship over the sample period implying the existence of diversification opportunities in the SEE Link markets.     

Equity culture development in Central and Eastern Europe: The role of institutional and managerial factors

In this paper we argue that the development of equity culture in the CEECs is dependent on the presence of a combination of factors stemming from the external institutional and internal managerial environments of the firm. We adopt an inductive approach by firstly analysing two levels of data followed by a conceptualisation based on gained results. We examine data for ten CEECs (all current EU members) for four years 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. To examine the characteristics of the institutional and managerial environments of the CEECs and assess their similarities to four benchmarks (UK, USA, Germany, and Japan) we apply a Co-Plot methodology. We find that the presence of an advanced and well developed institutional framework together with the existence of specific managerial conditions is a necessary condition for equity culture development. One could argue that in the CEECs the transition process of institutional conditions necessary for the development of a sound financial system is in place but with some limitations. Furthermore, we find that managers in countries with the best potential for equity culture development are highly motivated, high-skilled people with international corporate experience.     

Interest Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Markets

We provide empirical evidence regarding the responses of Central and Eastern European capital markets to monetary policy via domestic and international short-term interest rate shocks. The analysis is conducted using a four-variable structural vector error correction model identified by means of permanent-transitory restrictions. The results indicate a noticeable effect of the international interest rate on stock market indexes in the cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. Since no monetary policy autonomy exists in Bulgaria, Latvia, and Lithuania, we find support only for the inverse relationship between foreign interest rate and stock index prices.     

Investigating volatility spillover of energy commodities in the context of the Chinese and European stock markets

This paper investigates spillover from energy commodities to Shanghai stock exchange and European Stock market, and identifies possible risks transmission and portfolio diversification opportunities. The study is conducted on daily spot prices of carbon (CO2) emission, natural gas and crude oil from 16 December 2010 to 29 December 2022, employing Granger causality test, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), Diebold-Yilmaz (2012) and Barunik-Krehlic (2017) models. Results identify higher volatility and imply greater connectedness in the longer run. Additionally, natural gas is witnessed as the highest contributor of the shocks and crude oil as the highest receiver of the shocks from the network connection. Further results suggest for investment in energy commodities in shorter run rather than long run for efficient portfolio diversification. Results from this study are expected to have practical implications for portfolio managers, investors, and market regulators, given the suggestion of this study to incorporate energy stocks for efficient diversification of risk.     

Corporate Reporting in Central and Eastern Europe: Issues,Challenges and Research Opportunities

The purpose of this paper, building upon the papers included in this special section of Accounting in Europe on Corporate reporting in CEE countries and on our knowledge of the region, is to broaden out and open up dialogue and debate about how local institutions are evolving and impact the corporate reporting practices in this under-researched region. We begin by discussing the institutional context for conducting research on corporate reporting by entities in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), within the broader context of emerging, transitional economies. We also reflect on how research conducted on CEE countries can make a relevant contribution to the international literature, and exemplify by summarizing the research questions and findings of the papers included in the special section. A future research agenda emerges, given the gaps in the international literature and the future research implications suggested in the papers constituting the special section.     

Emerging markets and portfolio foreign exchange risk: An empirical investigation using a value-at-risk decomposition technique

The correlation between a portfolio's equity and foreign exchange components plays a role in reducing foreign exchange exposure. Investors must account for this correlation when determining the extent of foreign exchange risk in emerging market equity portfolio investments. This study employs a VaR risk factor mapping technique, under the variance–covariance VaR approach, to decompose portfolio risk in Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Russia. For comparison purposes, the same technique is used to decompose portfolio risk in the US. The study is conducted from the perspective of a European equity investor with a portfolio of equities in each country. By employing the VaR decomposition technique, the correlation between a portfolio's equity and foreign exchange components is taken into account and portfolio foreign exchange risk is extracted from portfolio systematic risk. Our results uniquely demonstrate significant variation in foreign exchange risk in emerging markets.     

An analysis of trading strategies in eleven European stock markets

Abstract

In recent years, the validity of the weak form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been called into question as several studies have uncovered evidence that technical trading rules have predictive ability with respect to both developed and emerging stock market indices. This study analyses the forecasting power of 2 of the most popular trading rules using index data for a selection of 11 European stock markets over the January 1991 to December 2000 period. The findings indicate that the emerging markets included in this paper are informationally inefficient; these markets displayed some degree of predictability in their share returns, although the developed markets did not. Furthermore, the results point to large differences in the performance of the rules examined; while small size filters consistently outperformed the buy-and-hold strategy in the emerging markets examined even after the consideration of transaction costs, the performance of the moving average rules was erratic and varied dramatically from market to market.     

Macroeconomic Factors in the Dynamics of Corporate and Household Saving: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

This article uses panel data estimations on annual data from 10 Central and Eastern European countries to assess the effect of different macroeconomic variables on the dynamics of corporate and household saving. The analyses show that changes in the macroeconomic environment affect the saving rates in both sectors, but with marked differences across the two sectors. The differences are most pronounced for the output gap, the real interest rate, the inflation rate, and the current account balance. Some variables, including the unemployment rate and changes in the real exchange rate, are unimportant in both sectors. The different results for the two sectors underscore the importance of analyzing the factors driving the dynamics of corporate and household saving separately.     

Non-synchronous trading and testing for market integration in Central European emerging markets

The paper contributes to the literature on integration of stock markets by addressing the issue of non-synchronous trading. We argue that controlling for time differences in trading hours of stock markets is important and show that time-adjustment improves estimates of market integration. We also show that using weekly frequency does not sidestep the consequences of the time-match problem but leads to significant loss of information. We show that the nature of integration of stock exchanges operating in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland with the stock markets of Germany, UK and US in the period 1994–2004 is very dynamic. Finally, the study shows that the autocorrelation of returns on the main market indices of these emerging markets have declined over time.     

捷克、波兰银行业免疫于欧债危机原因浅析

欧债危机中,捷克、波兰银行业保持平稳较快增长,文章将其原因归纳为：国内政治稳定,政府债务水平较低,劳动力具有竞争优势,与德国的经贸联系紧密,拥有独立的货币政策,未出现严重的资本外逃。文章认为两国银行业未来仍将保持增长潜力,并总结了两国银行业发展经验带来的启示。     

Investments,Credit, and Corporate Financial Distress: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Although they are instrumental for economic development, productivity-enhancing corporate investments may increase the financial vulnerability of companies, especially in an economic and financial crisis. We employ an instrumental probit model with the aim of finding evidence for the investment and credit patterns that led companies into financial distress during the global financial crisis 2009–2010. The company-level micro-data for our study on three Central and East European countries—Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and two Baltic countries, Latvia and Lithuania—originates from two independent surveys, the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey conducted in 2008 and the Financial Crisis Survey conducted in 2009/2010. Both were carried out jointly by the EBRD and the World Bank. Our results emphasize a substantial adverse impact from investment intensity and debt financing on company financial soundness during a crisis. On top of that, we discover a strong non-linear pattern in the sensitivity of company distress to its investment-financing nexus.     

Nonlinear serial dependence and the weak-form efficiency of Asian emerging stock markets

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the weak-form efficiency of 10 Asian emerging stock markets. Using a battery of nonlinearity tests, the statistical results reveal that all the returns series still contain predictable nonlinearities even after removing linear serial correlation from the data. The next stage of sub-sample analysis using the Hinich [Hinich, M., 1996. Testing for dependence in the input to a linear time series model. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics 6, 205–221] bicorrelation test shows that the 10 Asian series follow a pure noise process for long periods of time, only to be interspersed with brief periods of strong nonlinear dependence. The exploratory investigation found that the cross-country differences in nonlinear departure from market efficiency can be explained by market size and trading activity, while the transient burst of nonlinear periods in each individual market can be attributed largely to the occurrence of economic and political events.     

Are the gains from international portfolio diversification exaggerated? The influence of downside risk in bear markets

The fundamental rationale for international portfolio diversification is that it expands the opportunities for gains from portfolio diversification beyond those that are available through domestic securities. However, if international stock market correlations are higher than normal in bear markets, then international diversification will fail to yield the promised gains just when they are needed most. We evaluate the extent to which observed correlations to monthly returns in bear, calm and bull markets are captured by three popular bivariate distributions: (1) the normal, (2) the restricted GARCH(1,1) of J. P. Morgan’s RiskMetrics, and (3) the Student-t with four degrees of freedom. Observed correlations during calm and bull markets are unexceptional compared to these models. In contrast, observed correlations during bear markets are significantly higher than predicted. Higher-than-normal correlations during extreme market downturns result in monthly returns to equal-weighted portfolios of domestic and international stocks that are, on average, more than two percent lower than those predicted by the normal distribution. If the extent of non-normality during bear markets persists over time, then a US investor allocating assets into foreign markets might want to allocate more assets into foreign markets with near-normal correlation profiles and avoid markets with higher-than-normal bear market co-movements.     

Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many emerging market countries resorted to capital controls to tackle the excessive surge of capital inflows. A number of recent research papers have suggested that the imposition of controls may have imposed negative externalities on other countries by deflecting flows. Our aim in the research reported in this paper is to assess the efficacy of capital controls and potential deflection effects on other countries by constructing a comprehensive global econometric model which captures the dynamic interactions of capital flows with domestic and global fundamentals. The results suggest that capital controls are effective for some countries in the short run, but have no lasting effects. Moreover, there is only limited evidence of deflection effects for a small number of emerging market countries.     

Predictive power of web search behavior in five ASEAN stock markets

This paper investigates the predictive ability of web search behavior in connection with stock market returns and trading volume in five emerging economies in the ASEAN region using econometric and signal-processing techniques. More specifically, we use Vector Error Correction Model in conjunction with Wavelet analysis and find consistently low predictive ability of search activity in Google. In fact, investors in nearly all five markets appear to be interested in searching terms related to the market after high returns or high trading activities occur. In other words, high returns or high activities precede search interest. Our findings are at odds with the general results reported in earlier studies conducted in developed countries. Additionally, our analysis in the time-frequency domain detects a two-week lead-lag phenomenon in the association between search behavior and market returns for all markets but the Philippines.