Stochastic dominance and portfolio analysis

The principle of stochastic dominance is used to characterize the optimal efficient sets when the distributions of the random prospects belong to a family. Most of the well-known distributions are considered. In each case, the optimal efficient sets are characterized by easily verifiable conditions on the parameters of the distributions. These optimal efficient sets are then compared with the corresponding mean-variance (MV) efficient set. It is often found that the optimal efficient sets are proper subsets of the MV efficient set. Thus, the MV criterion is a proper efficiency criterion, but the MV efficient set can be excessively large compared to the optimal efficient set.     

A stochastic dominance analysis of the turnover related performance of mutual funds

Mutual fund performance relative to portfolio turnover is examined for funds in different investment categories using non-parametric, stochastic dominance criteria. We find that, in general, high-turnover funds are at least equally preferable to those with low turnover. This suggests that the costs of obtaining and exploiting information are, on average, compensated for by the subsequent return distribution. The exception is maximum capital gains funds. Here, high-turnover funds clearly dominate those with low turnover and the information gathering function is profitable.We gratefully acknowledge the contribution of an anonymous referee and the comments of Art Gudikunst of Bryant College.     

Style analysis and Value-at-Risk of Asia-focused hedge funds

In this paper we identify risk factors for Asia-focused hedge funds through a modified style analysis technique. Using an Asian hedge fund index, we find that Asian hedge funds show significant positive exposures to emerging equity markets. For both a static and rolling period style analysis, our model provides a high explanatory power for returns of the considered hedge fund index. We further conduct a Value-at-Risk analysis using the results of a rolling window style analysis as inputs. Our findings suggest that the considered parametric models outperform a simple historical simulation that is purely based on past return observations.     

Performance measurement of hedge funds using data envelopment analysis

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a nonparametric method from the area of operations research that measures the relationship of produced outputs to assigned inputs and determines an efficiency score. This efficiency score can be interpreted as a performance measure in investment analysis. Recent literature contains intensive discussion of using DEA to measure the performance of hedge funds, as this approach yields some advantages compared to classic performance measures. This paper extends the current discussion in three aspects. First, we present different DEA models and analyze their suitability for hedge fund performance measurement. Second, we systematize possible inputs and outputs for DEA and again examine their suitability for hedge fund performance measurement. Third, two rules are developed to select inputs and outputs in DEA of hedge funds. Using this framework, we find a completely new ranking of hedge funds compared to classic performance measures and compared to previously proposed DEA applications. Thus, we propose that classic performance measures should be supplemented with DEA based on the suggested rules to fully capture hedge fund risk and return characteristics.      

An empirical analysis of marginal conditional stochastic dominance

Stochastic dominance is a more general approach to expected utility maximization than the widely accepted mean–variance analysis. However, when applied to portfolios of assets, stochastic dominance rules become too complicated for meaningful empirical analysis, and, thus, its practical relevance has been difficult to establish. This paper develops a framework based on the concept of Marginal Conditional Stochastic Dominance (MCSD), introduced by Shalit and Yitzhaki (1994), to test for the first time the relationship between second order stochastic dominance (SSD) and stock returns. We find evidence that MCSD is a significant determinant of stock returns. Our results are robust with respect to the most popular pricing models.     

Optimal allocation to hedge funds: an empirical analysis

What percentage of their portfolio should investors allocate to hedge funds? The only available answers to the above question are set in a static mean-variance framework, with no explicit accounting for uncertainty on the active manager's ability to generate abnormal return, and usually generate unreasonably high allocations to hedge funds. In this paper, we apply the model introduced in Cvitanic et al (2002b Working Paper USC) for optimal investment strategies in the presence of uncertain abnormal returns to a database of hedge funds. We find that the presence of the model risk significantly decreases an investor's optimal allocation to hedge funds. Another finding of this paper is that low beta hedge funds may serve as natural substitutes for a significant portion of investor risk-free asset holdings.     

Bootstrapping a distance test for stochastic dominance analysis

A major impediment to measuring portfolio performance under stochastic dominance has been the lack of test statistics for orders of stochastic dominance above first degree. In this article, the Bootstrap method, introduced by Efron (1979), is used to estimate critical values for distance statistics in order to test the null hypothesis of no dominance, under second- and third-degree stochastic dominance, for several samples of stock returns. These test statistics, suggested by Whitmore (1978), are analogous to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance statistics that can be used to test for first-degree stochastic dominance. Stochastic dominance is shown to accurately assess portfolio performance of sample distributions when the population distributions are controlled and Bootstrap statistics are employed in the analysis. In addition, second- and third-degree stochastic dominance analysis of the smallfirm January anomaly indicates that, over the 23-year time period 1964 to 1986, small firms statistically dominate a diversified market index in only one calendar year.     

The performance of hedge funds and mutual funds in emerging markets

Use of short selling and derivatives is limited in most emerging markets because such instruments are not as readily available as they are in developed capital markets. These limitations raise questions about the value added provided by hedge funds, especially compared to traditional mutual funds active in these markets. We use five existing performance measurement models plus a new asset-style factor model to identify the return sources and the alpha generated by both types of funds. We analyze subperiods, different market environments, and structural breaks. Our results indicate that some hedge funds generate significant positive alpha, whereas most mutual funds do not outperform traditional benchmarks. We find that hedge funds are more active in shifting their asset allocation. The higher degree of freedom that hedge funds enjoy in their investment style might thus be one explanation for the differences in performance.     

Do hedge funds deliver alpha? A Bayesian and bootstrap analysis

Using a robust bootstrap procedure, we find that top hedge fund performance cannot be explained by luck, and hedge fund performance persists at annual horizons. Moreover, we show that Bayesian measures, which help overcome the short-sample problem inherent in hedge fund returns, lead to superior performance predictability. Sorting on Bayesian alphas, relative to OLS alphas, yields a 5.5% per year increase in the alpha of the spread between the top and bottom hedge fund deciles. Our results are robust and relevant to investors as they are neither confined to small funds, nor driven by incubation bias, backfill bias, or serial correlation.     

投连险与基金信息披露的比较分析

与国际通行做法相比,我国投连险投资账户多履行了一个资产组合管理职能,这就使得投连险投资账户与基金具有了一定的可比性。本文基于投连险与基金信息披露的比较视角,指出了我国投连险信息披露存在的问题,并从保险公司、监管部门、社会力量三个方面提出了相应的对策。     

Time diversification and security preferences: A stochastic dominance analysis

We use stochastic dominance to test whether investor should prefer riskier securities as the investment horizon lengthens. Return distributions for stocks, bonds, and U.S. Treasury bills are generated for holding periods of one to 25 years by simulation. For each holding period, stochastic dominance tests are run to establish preferences between the alternative security classes. Contrary to previous mean-variance based studies, we find no evidence that high-risk securities (stocks) dominate low-risk securities (bonds, Treasury bills) as the investment horizon lengthens. However, we do find that corporate bonds systematically dominate government bonds.     

An analysis of closed-end funds discounts viewed from a lack of redemption perspective

We examine the behavior of discounts for an extensive sample of U.S. closed-end funds (CEF) undergoing open-ending. Share prices increase and discounts reduce at the time of announcement. The 2-day abnormal return is approximately one half of the pre-announcement discount. We test and find support for the investor sentiment, transaction costs, and portfolio liquidity hypotheses controlling for fund characteristics, tax liability, and dividends yield. The role of investor sentiment declines following the announcement. We decompose the pre-announcement discount into its structural and idiosyncratic parts, and find that there is a greater reduction of the idiosyncratic part of the discount at the time of announcement. The correlation between discount of CEF undergoing open-ending and that of an index of similar funds declines as the CEF nears open-ending.     

Attribution of investment performance: an analysis of Australian pooled superannuation funds*

This paper evaluates the market timing and security selection capabilities of Australian pooled superannuation funds over the eight‐year period from January 1991 to December 1998. Evaluation of both components of investment performance is surprisingly scarce in the Australian literature despite active investment managers engaging in both market timing and security selection. The paper also evaluates performance for the three largest asset classes within diversified superannuation funds and their contribution to overall portfolio return. The importance of an accurately specified market portfolio proxy in the measurement of investment performance is demonstrated. This paper employs performance benchmarks that account for the multi‐sector investment decisions of active investment managers in a manner that is consistent with their unique investment strategy. Consistent with U.S. literature, the empirical results indicate that Australian pooled superannuation funds do not exhibit significantly positive security selection or market timing skill.     

Attribution of investment performance: an analysis of Australian pooled superannuation funds*

This paper evaluates the market timing and security selection capabilities of Australian pooled superannuation funds over the eight‐year period from January 1991 to December 1998. Evaluation of both components of investment performance is surprisingly scarce in the Australian literature despite active investment managers engaging in both market timing and security selection. The paper also evaluates performance for the three largest asset classes within diversified superannuation funds and their contribution to overall portfolio return. The importance of an accurately specified market portfolio proxy in the measurement of investment performance is demonstrated. This paper employs performance benchmarks that account for the multi‐sector investment decisions of active investment managers in a manner that is consistent with their unique investment strategy. Consistent with U.S. literature, the empirical results indicate that Australian pooled superannuation funds do not exhibit significantly positive security selection or market timing skill.     

Market segmentation and the valuation of closed-end country funds: An empirical analysis

This article examines the role of market segmentation on the valuation of the U.S. stock exchange-listed closed-end country funds and analyzes the determinants of net fund premia in a multivariate context. It is shown that fund returns are generally sensitive to both national and U.S. market factors, but only national factors are priced. Cross-section and time series estimation of net fund premia indicates the importance of market segmentation as a determinant of net fund premia. There is some evidence that exchange rate changes may exert an additional influence. However, market expectation variables such as economic growth of the country or relative capitalization rates are insignificant.     

资金清算体系设计

中国建设银行(以下简称建行)在实现了内蒙古自治区清算集中后,对原有资金运营体系做了较大的改变。撤消了各二级分行清算中心,内蒙古自治区只保留一级分行清算中心。即只设一个联行号,所有区外汇划往来业务产生的资金汇差,都由一级分行清算中心与总行进行头寸清算。另外,随着建行业务的发展,一些新的业务品种不断涌现,例如证券业务、重要客户服务系统、网上银行、现代化支付等。这些新系统产生的资金汇差也都要求由一级分行清算中心与总行进行头寸清算,然后再在城综网内逐级向下清算。在这种状况下,如果一级分行仍然采用古老的手工方式,于次…     

Performance persistence of closed-end funds

Studies of performance persistence of closed-end funds (CEFs) use two measures of persistence; autocorrelation and rank correlation of performance. The autocorrelation measure offers limited information because it cannot separate persistence relative to the market and to the industry. The rank correlation measure is generally applied to two periods, disregarding multi-period persistence. We investigate performance persistence of CEFs in terms of both market price return and net asset value return using contingency tables and multiple regression models. Jensen’s alpha and the Sharpe ratio are used as measures of risk-adjusted performance. We test three hypotheses: (i) CEFs performing better than the industry median will do so persistently, (ii) CEFs outperform the market persistently; and (iii) performance persistence can be partly explained by dividend yield. The findings are fivefold. First, the number of persistent years varies with the models used to calculate risk-adjusted performance. Second, with 4-index unconditional beta fixed variance model, CEFs persistently beat their industry for six out of 10 years in terms of both market price return and net asset value return. Third, with a 4-index unconditional beta fixed variance model, we find performance persistence relative to market for 6 and 7 years, out of the 10 years considered, in terms of market price return and net asset value return, respectively. Fourth, the disaggregate sample tests show that performance of municipal bond funds is more persistent than equity funds and taxable bond funds. Fifth, dividend patterns can partially explain persistence with liquidity as control.     

养老基金的社会责任投资

社会责任投资(SR I)作为一种全新的投资理念,将社会、环境、人权等因素纳入融资标准。在倡导可持续性发展的今天,面对金融市场的种种不确定性因素,将这一理念引入到养老基金的投资决策中,无论从理论或实践的角度,都具有深远意义。本文从基本概念入手,考察了社会责任投资的发展轨迹,并从理论角度对其先进性和有效性进行探讨,进而分析了将SR I引入到养老基金投资中的可行性,最后结合国际经验和我国现实,提出了中国养老基金社会责任投资的政策建议。     

The leverage of hedge funds

Long–short hedge funds are often very highly levered, despite the costs of leverage that became apparent during the LTCM crisis in 1998 and the more recent episode in 2008. This note explores potential market imperfections that may explain the use of leverage.     

The economics of hedge funds

Hedge fund managers trade off the benefits of leveraging on the alpha-generating strategy against the costs of inefficient fund liquidation. In contrast to the standard risk-seeking intuition, even with a constant-return-to-scale alpha-generating strategy, a risk-neutral manager becomes endogenously risk-averse and decreases leverage following poor performance to increase the fund's survival likelihood. Our calibration suggests that management fees are the majority of the total compensation. Money flows, managerial restart options, and management ownership increase the importance of high-water-mark-based incentive fees but management fees remain the majority. Investors' valuation of fees are highly sensitive to their assessments of the manager's skill.