How do respondents process stated choice experiments? Attribute consideration under varying information load

The popularity of stated choice (SC) experiments has produced many design strategies in which researchers use increasingly more ‘complex’ choice settings to study choice behaviour. When the amount of information to assess increases, we wonder how an individual handles such information in making a choice. Defining the amount of information as the number of attributes associated with each choice set, we investigate how this information is processed as we vary its ‘complexity’. Four ordered heterogeneous logit models are developed, each for an SC design based on a fixed number of attributes, in which the dependent variable defines the number of attributes that are ignored. We find that the degree to which individuals ignore attributes is influenced by the dimensionality of the SC experiment, the deviation of attribute levels from an experienced reference alternative, the use of ‘adding up’ attributes where feasible, the number of choice sets evaluated, and the personal income of the respondent. The empirical evidence supports the view that individuals appear to adopt a range of ‘coping’ strategies that are consistent with how they process information in real markets, and that aligning ‘choice complexity’ with the amount of information to process is potentially misleading. Relevancy is what matters. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Collaboration,Co-Production,Networks: Convergence of theories

Abstract

This article suggests a framework to study service delivery networks that draws on the theories of collaboration, co-production, and networks combined. We introduce four dimensions of co-production under ‘coproduction-oriented collaborations’. This framework allows us to ‘zoom in and zoom out’ when we study networks. Using the case method approach, the framework is applied to analyse four networks in Singapore. Findings suggest that network process, network structure, and characteristics of actors are crucial to a network’s performance and coproduction’s effectiveness. This article also offers implications for practice that in certain contexts the usage of these concepts is for managerial effectiveness and not for enhancing democratic values.     

供应链网络均衡模型研究

供应链是一个典型的动态系统,如何协调系统中各成员之间的利益和关系,寻找供应链网络的最终均衡状态,是供应链管理中的一个重要问题,文章首先以变分不等式为工具,介绍了确定性和不确定性需求条件下的供应链网络均衡模型,然后将该类模型转化为非线性互补问题,运用评价函数（merit function）将其转化为无约束最优化问题。最后通过拟牛顿算法求解该类模型,有效解决了该类模型的求解问题。     

Optimal consumption under uncertainty,liquidity constraints,and bounded rationality

I study how boundedly rational agents can learn a “good” solution to an infinite horizon optimal consumption problem under uncertainty and liquidity constraints. Using an empirically plausible theory of learning I propose a class of adaptive learning algorithms that agents might use to choose a consumption rule. I show that the algorithm always has a globally asymptotically stable consumption rule, which is optimal. Additionally, I present extensions of the model to finite horizon settings, where agents have finite lives and life-cycle income patterns. This provides a simple and parsimonious model of consumption for large agent based models.     

Forecasting educational enrolments: Comparison of a Markov chain and circuitless flow network model

Entrants into large complex educational systems typically follow one of many different paths to a successful graduation, transfer-out or drop-out. In contrast to the usual simple Markov chain simulation model employing ‘stock data’, the educational system is presented as a circuitless flow network model employing sub-population student attributes and ‘flow data’. A simple linear model readily projects flow patterns into future grade enrolments. The statistics of a secondary school cohort are used to illustrate the methodologies and contrast the results of the Markov and circuitless flow models.     

Too dynamic to fail: empirical support for an autocatalytic model of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis

Solomon and Golo (Account Econ Law 3(3):167–260, 2013) have recently proposed an autocatalytic (self-reinforcing) feedback model which couples a macroscopic system parameter (the interest rate), a microscopic parameter that measures the distribution of the states of the individual agents (the number of firms in financial difficulty) and a peer-to-peer network effect (contagion across supply chain financing). In this model, each financial agent is characterized by its resilience to the interest rate. Above a certain rate the interest due on the firm’s financial costs exceeds its earnings and the firm becomes susceptible to failure (ponzi). For the interest rate levels under a certain threshold level, the firm loans are smaller then its earnings and the firm becomes ‘hedge.’ In this paper, we fit the historical data (2002–2009) on interest rate data into our model, in order to predict the number of the ponzi firms. We compare the prediction with the data taken from a large panel of Italian firms over a period of 9 years. We then use trade credit linkages to discuss the connection between the ponzi density and the network percolation. We find that the ‘top-down’–‘bottom-up’ positive feedback loop accounts for most of the Minsky crisis accelerator dynamics. The peer-to-peer ponzi companies contagion becomes significant only in the last stage of the crisis when the ponzi density is above a critical value. Moreover the ponzi contagion is limited only to the companies that were not dynamic enough to substitute their distressed clients with new ones. In this respect the data support a view in which the success of the economy depends on substituting the static ‘supply-network’ picture with an interacting dynamic agents one.     

A simultaneous equations system of money demand and supply using generalized functional forms

The Box-Cox parametric transformation was incorporated into a simultaneous money demand and supply equations systems, where the demand function had a liquidity trap. Full-Information Maximum-Likelihood parameter estimates of the ‘generalized’ system, as compared to FIML estimates from an equations system where the functional forms were a priori restricted, revealed the ‘generalized functional form’ model had superior forecasting ability, smaller impact multipliers on discretionary policy instruments, and different elasticity estimates. A likelihood ratio test between the ‘generalized’ and a priori restricted models indicated the generalized model was significantly different from the closest ‘linear in the parameters’ model.     

Decision support systems for human resource training and development

Human resource training and development methods and techniques have different qualitative characteristics that require a multicriteria and multiscenario framework for their assessment. This study incorporates the AHP to assess the nine most important human resource training and development methods and techniques, under five criteria and six scenarios. The methods considered are ‘on-the-job training’, ‘mentorship’, ‘apprenticeship’, ‘vestibule training/simulators’, ‘web-based learning’, ‘instructor-led classroom training’, ‘programmed self-instruction’, ‘case studies/role playing’ and ‘systematic job rotations and transfers’. ‘Vestibule training/simulators’ and ‘mentorship’ have the average best scores, and they should be among the first priorities especially when efficiency, the motivation of employees and minimization of the duration of training time are the most important factors. ‘Web-based learning’ is ideal for minimizing training costs or when ease of application is the first priority. ‘On-the-job training’ is a very good alternative when the cost of training should be reduced while the motivation of employees should be increased.     

Target costing,co-ordination and strategic cost management

During the last years issues of strategic management accounting have received widespread attention in the accounting literature. Yet the conceptual foundation of most proposals is not clear. This paper presents a theoretical analysis of one of the most prominent approaches of strategic management accounting, i.e. target costing. We analyse three distinct characteristics of this strategic management accounting tool, namely its market orientation, its use as co-ordination instrument and its interaction with other factors affecting long-term cost structure in the form of strategic learning. The analysis shows that the more ‘strategic’ dimensions are added to the problem of cost management, the less valid are ‘strategic’ management accounting proposals in terms of the usual way target costing is employed.     

PUBLIC SERVICES MANAGEMENT: ACTIVITIES, INITIATIVES AND LIMITS TO LEARNING

Private sector-style management initiatives to ensure UK public services managers’ learning from private sector management practice are examined, and their rationale questioned. The lack of a coherent, systematic and agreed view of what constitutes ‘management’ and ‘managerial work’ in the private sector is discussed. It is argued that there are reasons for believing that the particular character and organizational contexts of public services will require different managerial behaviours. The manner in which experimental managerial initiatives in some public services have shifted into mandatory innovations is examined. Such innovations can be incompatible with the values of those managing in the public service, who frequently fail to recognize the advantages of late innovation, incrementalism and circumspection. In public services particularly, many managerial activities are the province of ‘non managerial’ staff. Though frequently not considered, the values of these de facto managers may be central to the progress of such innovations. It is further argued that risk-taking as applied in a business context is inappropriate to the degree that public services managers must be concerned with the common weal, equity and accountability. The article concludes with a detailed research agenda to support the need to recognize public services management as a rich and varied area of managerial behaviour in its own right. Its character and variation warrants further investigation as a basis for formulating more appropriate management concepts against which to measure public services managers’ behaviour and performance.     

An investigation into the values dimensions of branding: implications for the charity sector

• Branding is being adopted by charities and written about in academic and practitioner charity literature with increasing frequency. There is also growing concern, however, about the over-commercialistion of the sector and the misappropriation of techniques developed specifically for the commercial environment. Literature supporting the claim that charities are values-based organisations is reviewed and the proposition is made that it is in fact the non-negotiability of charity values that differentiate them from commercial organisations. Given the significance of values in the charity sector, the paper argues that a clearer understanding of how values are conceptualised in branding is necessary in order to establish whether branding is an appropriate and effective tool in the charity context. To achieve this, the paper reviews relevant branding literature focusing in particular upon the delineation of the values dimensions identified in for-profit branding models. To aid further understanding of these values dimensions in the non-profit context and their applicability (or otherwise) to it, the metaphors of brand as ‘mirror’, ‘lamp’ and ‘lens’ are introduced.
• It is argued that in the corporate sector the brand concept has been utilised to ‘mirror’ those values that underpin the needs and desires of consumers. In contrast to the passive mirror, when operationalised as ‘lamp’, it is claimed that the brand aims to influence both the values of the organisation and the values of its target audience. It is postulated that neither of these approaches is appropriate for values-led organisations and that it is only as a metaphorical ‘lens’, projecting the values of the organisation itself that branding offers an applicable and effective model in the charity context.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Conduct of Management and the Management of Conduct: Contemporary Managerial Discourse and the Constitution of the ‘Competent’ Manager*

The character and conduct of the manager has formed a central focus of attempts to govern economic life throughout the present century. and current programmes of organizational change involve radical attempts to reconstitute the nature and conduct of management. This is attempted through the identification and implementation of management competencies. Discourses of organizational reform such as human resource management, total quality management and business process re-engineering all place a critical emphasis on anti-bureaucratic, organic and flexible forms of organization, which are also seen to require the development of particular capacities and predispositions among managers. Essential to their vision of ‘managerial work’ is a composite of ‘entrepreneurial’ attributes. Management competencies appear to offer a congenial method for the reconstitution of the manager along ‘entrepreneurial’ lines, not simply because they are inherently founded on managers'self-management and self-presentation of identified behaviours, but also because they represent individualized forms of business functions (and are often associated with the establishment of market relations within the organization).     

Pricing policy and coordination for a two-layer supply chain of duopolistic retailers and socially responsible manufacturer

This paper explores channel coordination and profit distribution in a two-layer socially responsible supply chain that consists of a manufacturer and two competitive retailers. In manufacturer-Stackelberg game setting, the manufacturer exhibits corporate social responsibility and the retailers play Cournot and Collusion games. Besides comparing the optimal decisions of the retailers two game behaviours, the paper analyses the effects of social responsibility on the optimal decisions. It is found that two-part tariff contract resolves channel conflict and provides win–win outcome for a specific range of the franchise fee and it is always possible to find a particular profit split using Nash bargaining product. With increasing social responsibility of the manufacturer, the coordinated wholesale prices of the manufacturer may be both decreasing or ‘U’ shaped and decreasing when the market potentials of the retailers are almost the same or significantly different. Also, at least one coordinated wholesale price is less than the manufacturer's marginal cost. The proposed model is illustrated by a numerical example.     

Censored regression models with unobserved,stochastic censoring thresholds

The ‘Tobit’ model is a useful tool for estimation of regression models with truncated or limited dependent variables, but it requires a threshold which is either a known constant or an observable and independent variable. The model presented here extends the Tobit model to the censored case where the threshold is an unobserved and not necessarily independent random variable. Maximum likelihood procedures can be employed for joint estimation of both the primary regression equation and the parameters of the distribution of that random threshold.     

Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques

The most representative machine learning techniques are implemented for modeling and forecasting U.S. economic activity and recessions in particular. An elaborate, comprehensive, and comparative framework is employed in order to estimate U.S. recession probabilities. The empirical analysis explores the predictive content of numerous well-followed macroeconomic and financial indicators, but also introduces a set of less-studied predictors. The predictive ability of the underlying models is evaluated using a plethora of statistical evaluation metrics. The results strongly support the application of machine learning over more standard econometric techniques in the area of recession prediction. Specifically, the analysis indicates that penalized Logit regression models, k-nearest neighbors, and Bayesian generalized linear models largely outperform ‘original’ Logit/Probit models in the prediction of U.S. recessions, as they achieve higher predictive accuracy across long-, medium-, and short-term forecast horizons.     

Inference in some disaggregated models with special covariance structure

This paper is concerned with parameter identification and estimation in linear structural equation models. We consider a special class of models which arises naturally when we disaggregate economic relations. We show that substantial gains in identification and estimation efficiency for ‘macro’ economic parameters can arise from disaggregation and analysis of the resulting ‘micro’ model.     

WOMEN'S CENTRES: RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN VALUES AND ACTION

This article adopts an ‘organizing’ perspective to examine the relationship between values and action. Drawing on case studies of organizing activity which is undertaken with reference to the core values of the autonomous women's movement, the essentially negotiated nature of this relationship is argued and illustrated. Variation is shown to occur in the terms and arenas of negotiation and attention is drawn to the dimensions of the characteristic ‘texture of organizing’ in the settings described.     

Learning to Build a Supply Network: An Exploration of Dynamic Business Models

abstract    Firms are confronted with the challenge of learning how to develop and manage supply networks, which reduce their operating costs and maximize their effectiveness in the marketplace. In pursuit of such goals they are increasingly turning to the use of dynamic business models. Dynamic business models represent continuous change and therefore make firms learn constantly new and better ways of doing things. These changes are manifestations of inter-firm knowledge transfer. The aim of this research is to explore dynamic business models as an example of inter-firm knowledge transfer. Adopting a case study approach, we examine three components of dynamic business models – network structure, inter-firm routines and knowledge forms – and describe their integration through a problem solving approach to building an offshore supply network. Our empirical findings suggest that dynamic business models help organizations identify and link key actors with each other (at the firm and individual level), and aid the identification and specification of appropriate knowledge types and knowledge transfer mechanisms for different actors, in different contexts.     

Firms in financial distress: evidence from inter-firm payment networks with volatility driven by ‘animal spirits’

This paper elaborates an agent-based model of a pure market economy to provide theoretical evidence on how volatility-induced changes in inter-firm payment networks affect the financial distress of firms. This volatility is driven by ‘animal spirits’ in that it arises from the feelings of optimism/pessimism independently of rational decision-making, and influences the liquidity available to each firm through the inter-firm payment network; consequently, some firms may enter financial distress. The model first determines the inter-firm payment network. Then, a mean-reverting square-root process introduces volatility into the inter-firm payment network through firms’ propensity to pay suppliers according to the payments that firms expect to receive from customers. The model is calibrated for compatibility with relevant macro- and microeconomic stylized facts. According to computational experiments, financial distress in the business sector is minimized when feelings of optimism/pessimism generate the lowest volatility in firms’ propensity to pay suppliers. In addition, this volatility must materialize around an intermediate value of firms’ propensity to pay suppliers, and firms must keep this intermediate value over time.

     

Approximate Bayesian forecasting

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has become increasingly prominent as a method for conducting parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, most notably those characterized by an intractable likelihood function. In this paper, we focus on the use of ABC not as a tool for parametric inference, but as a means of generating probabilistic forecasts; or for conducting what we refer to as ‘approximate Bayesian forecasting’. The four key issues explored are: (i) the link between the theoretical behavior of the ABC posterior and that of the ABC-based predictive; (ii) the use of proper scoring rules to measure the (potential) loss of forecast accuracy when using an approximate rather than an exact predictive; (iii) the performance of approximate Bayesian forecasting in state space models; and (iv) the use of forecasting criteria to inform the selection of ABC summaries in empirical settings. The primary finding of the paper is that ABC can provide a computationally efficient means of generating probabilistic forecasts that are nearly identical to those produced by the exact predictive, and in a fraction of the time required to produce predictions via an exact method.