A multiple criteria methodology for priority based portfolio selection

This paper presents a new methodology combining multiple criteria sorting or ranking methods with a project portfolio selection procedure. The multicriteria method permits the comparison of projects in terms of their priority based on qualitative and quantitative criteria. Then, a feasible set of projects, i.e. a portfolio, is selected according to the priority defined by the multiple criteria method and satisfying a set of resources and logical constraints. The proposed portfolio selection methodology is called Priority Based Portfolio Selection (PBPS) and can be applied in different contexts. We present an application in the urban planning domain where our approach allows us to select a set of urban projects based on their priority, budgetary constraints, and urban policy requirements. Given the increasing interest of historical cities to reuse their cultural heritage, we applied and tested our methodology in this context. In particular, we show how the methodology can support the prioritization of the interventions on buildings with some historical value in the historic city center of Naples (Italy), taking into account several points of view.     

Value Management in Project Portfolios: Identifying and Assessing Strategic Value

Projects are expected to bring value to their constituents. Value management in project portfolios has centered on the maximization of commercial value and identification of future business prospects. In this study, the goal is increased understanding of the identification and assessment of strategic, non‐commercial value in project portfolios. We map the relevant dimensions of strategic value and supplement previous frameworks with the non‐commercial aspects. Ecological, societal, and learning values have only been studied conceptually and qualitatively in earlier research. We propose future research on these values in quantitative settings and exploring collective sensemaking as part of project portfolio value management.     

Measuring portfolio strategic performance using key performance indicators

It is difficult to find indicators for measuring the achievement of objectives during the progress of project portfolios. This article presents an approach for developing key strategic perfor‐mance indicators considering this limitation. The indicators proposed help measure the achievement of a portfolio's strategic objectives taking into account the realization of key benefits. This approach helps identify strategic interdependences between projects that the portfolio is composed of, facilitating the understanding of how the performance of a single project affects the overall performance of a portfolio. The key perfor‐mance indicators can also be used for monitoring the materialization of risks and opportunities influencing the strategic performance of a portfolio.     

Portfolio Risk Management and Its Contribution to Project Portfolio Success: An Investigation of Organization,Process, and Culture

Previous research has found supporting evidence of a positive relationship between project risk management and project success, but literature on how risk management is applied to and integrated with project portfolios has been scarce. Based on a literature review, a comprehensive conceptual model is developed, which highlights the three components of portfolio risk management: organization, process, and culture. This study investigates their linkage to portfolio success, mediated through risk management quality, and, therefore, provides principles for more effective portfolio risk management. The developed framework can be used for further empirical research on the influence of portfolio risk management and its success.     

The Effectiveness of Portfolio Risk Diversification: An Additive Approach by Project Replication

This article proposes a probabilistic approach to project operational risk and project portfolio risk diversification. The analysis rests on a fundamental distinction between a fractional and an additive approach for constructing portfolios. Since the additive approach excludes variance as a measure of risk, the project's operational risk is defined by its probability of loss. Paradoxically, the effectiveness of any firm's portfolio risk diversification process will be negatively related to the operational risk of its representative project. We also present the conditions under which risk management and efficiency management can contribute to the firm's strategic imperative of lowering its operational risk.     

Flow Signals: Evidence from Patent and Alliance Portfolios in the US Biopharmaceutical Industry

Integrating signalling theory and the portfolio diversity literature, we theorize that diversity in a firm's patent and alliance portfolios sends contrasting flow signals impacting its market value in a nuanced way. Diversity in an alliance portfolio mediates the patent portfolio diversity – market value relationship by suppressing the negative effect of patent portfolio diversity creating an overall positive effect. We test our mediation model on a longitudinal set of 225 US biopharmaceutical firms that were awarded 17,078 patents and participated in 37,744 alliances between 1990 and 2006. Our theory and findings contribute three novel insights. First, we demonstrate the value of a temporal lens in explaining why diversity in a firm's patent and alliance portfolios send flow signals that establish expectations among market observers and have performance implications. Second, establishing that patent and alliance portfolio diversity are temporally sequenced provides compelling evidence for the value of studying multiple types of portfolios, their temporal relationships and effects on firm outcomes. Third, since diversity in a firm's portfolios can send contrasting flow signals conditioned on the cognitive demands and proximity involved in interpreting the signals, firms that do not maintain a ‘signalling fit’ with market observers increase the probability of unintentional negative signalling effects.     

Value stream mapping in project management: A case study

This article describes the application of value stream mapping to analyze and redesign the way of managing the materials procurement stage of a project. A framework based on integrated definition (IDEF) methodology, the stream analysis approach, activity‐based costing, and discrete event simulation is presented. The stream analysis approach is used to analyze, diagnose, and manage process changes represented using an IDEF model. A dynamic simulation is used to evaluate the impact of the changes considered, to support the analysis of the process, and to model the performance of the proposed process. The overall methodology is demonstrated by applying it to a company whose core business is the design and construction of offshore oil rigs. The company specializes in engineering, procurement, and construction projects and has an annual portfolio of about six projects. Many of these projects have common features in terms of design and components, and they are all also characterized by a short “time to delivery.” For this reason, this study was aimed at assessing the possible effects that the application of new materials management policies could have on reducing both project completion time and the resources required.     

Selecting balanced portfolios of R&D projects with interdependencies: A Cross-Entropy based methodology

The intensive growth of technology makes firms rely on research and development (R&D) activities in order to adapt to technology changes in an ever-changing and uncertain environment. Due to R&D budget constraints and limited resources, firms are often forced to select a subset of all candidate projects by means of project portfolio selection techniques mitigating the corresponding risks and enhancing the overall value of portfolio. Projects' interdependencies and types were rarely considered in existing models of R&D portfolio selection that may result in selecting wrong projects. This flaw hinders the projects alignment with corporate objectives and strategy and leads to excessive risk and missing the promised values. In this paper, a balanced set of R&D project evaluation criteria was proposed. Next, to construct R&D project portfolio, a 0–1 nonlinear mathematical programming method for balancing portfolio values and risks was proposed, in which research projects' interdependencies, types and other constraints were all considered. Finally, a Cross-Entropy algorithm was developed to solve the proposed model and results were reported. The algorithm proved to be very effective in terms of solution quality and computational time. The proposed algorithm especially suits large scale instances while exact approaches are doomed to fail.     

Differences Between Clients’ and Vendors’ Perceptions of IT Outsourcing Risks: Project Partnering as the Mitigation Approach

Information technology (IT) outsourcing has been a business practice for more than two decades. Researchers have suggested successful risk management as a key factor in successful IT outsourcing projects implementation. The documented investigations, however, have mainly addressed risk management only from a single perspective of either clients or IT vendors. Considering only one perspective allows for an omission of possible risks considered critical by the other party, as suggested by agency theory. This study explored the potential perception inconsistency regarding the risks between the client and the vendor for IT outsourcing projects by using a quasi‐Delphi approach. The analysis results indicated some inconsistencies in the risks perceived by the two parties: (1) the clients regarded (a) lack of vendor commitment to the project and (b) poor vendor selection criteria and process as top critical risks but the vendors didn't; and (2) on the other hand, the vendors perceived (a) unclear requirements and (b) lack of experience and expertise with project activities as significant risks but the clients didn't. Insights into how the client and the vendor perceive risks may help both parties determine how to partner and manage project risks collaboratively to succeed in outsourcing.     

A Hybrid Approach to Quantitative Software Project Scheduling Within Agile Frameworks

In this article we focus on the quantitative project scheduling problem in IT companies that apply the agile management philosophy and Scrum, in particular. We combine mathematical programming with an agile project flow using a modified multi‐mode resource constrained project scheduling model for software projects (MRCPS^SP). The proposed approach can be used to generate schedules as benchmarks for agile development iterations. Computational experiments based on real project data indicate that this approach significantly reduces the project cycle time. The approach can be a useful addition to agile project management, especially for software projects with predefined deadlines and budgets.     

A project portfolio risk‐opportunity identification framework

This article introduces a framework to identify risks and opportunities during portfolio risk management that helps to decrease the uncertainty of achieving the strategic goals of the organization. The final output of the framework is a portfolio risk‐opportunity register, which highlights the potential events that could impact the achievement of the goals. An illustrative example of how risk‐opportunity identification can be conducted within this framework is also exposed. In spite of being theoretical in nature, the model contributes to the risk management domain applied specifically to project portfolio management, opening the possibility of further research for its verification.     

The cheapest hedge

Investors often wish to insure themselves against the payoff of their portfolios falling below a certain value. One way of doing this is by purchasing an appropriate collection of traded securities. However, when the derivatives market is not complete, an investor who seeks portfolio insurance will also be interested in the cheapest hedge that is marketed. Such insurance will not exactly replicate the desired insured-payoff, but it is the cheapest that can be achieved using the market.Analytically, the problem of finding a cheapest insuring portfolio is a linear programming problem. The present paper provides an alternative portfolio dominance approach to solving the minimum-premium insurance portfolio problem. This affords remarkably rich and intuitive insights to determining and describing the minimum-premium insurance portfolios.     

A Comprehensive Framework for Sustainable Project Portfolio Selection Based on Structural Equation Modeling

Project selection problems are inherently complex problems with multiple and often conflicting objectives. The complexity of project selection problems is due to the high number of projects from which a subset (portfolio) has to be chosen. Various analytical methods, ranging from the simple weighted sum to complex mathematical programming have been proposed to solving these problems. We propose an integrated approach for strategic and sustainable project portfolio selection, which is composed of two distinct but interrelated modules. In the first module, we use the strategic planning and sustainability concepts to select a set of promising projects. In the second module, we use a project portfolio selection procedure to choose among the promising projects identified in the first module. A structural equation model is used to analyze and explain the relationships among different factors in the proposed framework. More specifically, we investigate the effects of: (1) strategic level performance on sustainability, post‐implementation, and overall performance; (2) implementation performance on post‐implementation and overall performance; (3) portfolio selection performance on implementation and overall performance; and (4) post‐implementation performance on overall performance. A case study in investment banking is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and exhibit the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms.     

Corporate Innovation Culture and Dimensions of Project Portfolio Success: The Moderating Role of National Culture

This study examines the relationships between corporate innovation culture (analysis/practices) and dimensions of project portfolio success (strategic fit/portfolio balance) as well as national‐level culture practices as moderators. Data (N = 165) were collected in four countries differing in cultural practices. Analysis and practices were identified as positive, significant, and complementary predictors of both dimensions. As hypothesized, the corporate variables related more strongly and positively to the success dimensions when assertiveness was high rather than low. The findings, thus, suggest that corporate factors should be compatible with national culture to elevate the fit and balance of project portfolios.     

Post-merger performance in the software industry: The impact of characteristics of the software product portfolio

This article studies the impact of the characteristics of software product portfolios on the performance of firms involved in a merger of software companies. The short-term financial results reveal that markets generally seem to neglect the characteristics of software product portfolios when the merger is announced. Nevertheless, such portfolios appear to have a positive impact on the price/book value ratio of merged software firms. The empirical evidence presented in this paper suggests that, in the long term, the performance of business combinations in the software industry is related to certain factors that are attributable to virtual network effects.     

A case study of exploiting enterprise resource planning requirements

The requirements engineering (RE) processes have become a key to conceptualising corporate-wide integrated solutions based on packaged enterprise resource planning (ERP) software. The RE literature has mainly focused on procuring the most suitable ERP package. Little is known about how an organisation exploits the chosen ERP RE model to frame the business application development. This article reports an exploratory case study of a key tenet of ERP RE adoption, namely that aligning business applications to the packaged RE model leads to integral practices and economic development. The case study analysed a series interrelated pilot projects developed for a business division of a large IT manufacturing and service company, using Oracle's appl1ication implementation method (AIM). The study indicated that AIM RE improved team collaboration and project management experience, but needed to make hidden assumptions explicit to support data visibility and integrity. Our study can direct researchers towards rigorous empirical evaluations of ERP RE adoption, collect experiences and lessons learned for practitioners, and help generate more effective and mature processes when exploiting ERP RE methods.     

Lasso-based index tracking and statistical arbitrage long-short strategies

In this paper, we apply the lasso-type regression to solve the index tracking (IT) and the long-short investing strategies. In both cases, our objective is to exploit the mean-reverting properties of prices as reported in the literature. This method is an interesting technique for portfolio selection due to its capacity to perform variable selection in linear regression and to solve high-dimensional problems (which is the case if we consider broader indexes such as the S&P 500 or the Russell 1000). We use lasso to solve IT and long-short with three market benchmarks (S&P 100 and Russell 1000 – US stock market; and Ibovespa – Brazilian market), comprising data from 2010 to 2017. Also, we formed IT portfolios using cointegration (a method widely used for index tracking) to have a basis for comparison of the results using lasso. The findings for IT showed similar overall performance between portfolios using lasso and cointegration, with a slight advantage to cointegration in some cases. Nonetheless, lasso-based IT portfolios presented average monthly turnover at least 40% smaller, indicating that lasso generated portfolios that had not only a consistent tracking performance but also a considerable advantage in terms of transaction costs (represented by the average turnover).     

Project portfolio control and portfolio management performance in different contexts

This article investigates the nature and relationship of project portfolio control techniques and portfolio management performance, and how this relationship is moderated by situational idiosyncrasies of internal and external dynamics, industries, governance types, and geographic location. A worldwide questionnaire with 242 responses was used, of which 136 high‐performing responses were filtered out for quantitative analysis of best practices. Three portfolio control factors were identified: portfolio selection, portfolio reporting, and decision‐making style. Two measures for portfolio management performance were identified: achievement of desired portfolio results and achievement of project and program purpose. The results indicate that different portfolio control mechanisms are associated with different performance measures. A contingency model was developed, including moderating effects by contextual variables.     

项目组织结构复杂性风险评估及其在协作型项目组合中的扩散机制研究

探讨项目复杂性与项目风险的关系并证明了项目的组织结构复杂性是项目的风险来源。以项目组织结构的复杂性作为项目内部风险的衡量标准,建立了基于组织结构复杂性并考虑规模因素的项目风险评估模型。分析了项目组合中通常存在的项目间的相互关系以及每一种相互关系对项目组合整体风险的影响。利用Logistic映射对协作型项目组合建立了项目组织结构复杂性风险的扩散模型,以定量刻画项目组织结构复杂性风险在项目组合中的扩散机制。最后对模型进行了仿真并根据仿真结果给出了降低项目组合风险的策略。     

Survey of business process management: challenges and solutions

The current literature shows that creating a good framework on business process model (PM) is not an easy task. A successful business PM should have the ability to ensure accurate alignment between business processes (BPs) and information technology (IT) designs, provide security protection, manage the rapidly changing business environment and BPs, manage customer power, be flexible for reengineering and ensure that IT goals can be easily derived from business goals and hence an information system (IS) can be easily implemented. This article presents an overview of research in the business PM domain. We have presented a review of the challenges facing business PMs, such as misalignment between business and IT, difficulty of deriving IT goals from business goals, creating secured business PM, reengineering BPs, managing the rapidly changing BP and business environment and managing customer power. Also, it presents the limitations of existing business PM frameworks. Finally, we outline several guidelines to create good business PM and the possible further research directions in the business PM domain.