利率市场化条件下商业银行经营环境变化及战略选择

利率市场化会深刻改变利率体系和金融市场环境,对我国银行业经营发展产生重大影响。文章基于利率市场化环境下商业银行经营战略转型的视角,评述我国继续推进利率市场化的方向,探讨利率市场化改革对利率体系与商业银行经营环境带来的影响,并提出商业银行推进经营发展转型的相关建议。     

Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: A quantitative exploration

The paper reconsiders the role of money and banking in monetary policy analysis by including a banking sector and money in an optimizing model otherwise of a standard type. The model is implemented quantitatively, with a calibration based on US data. It is reasonably successful in providing an endogenous explanation for substantial steady-state differentials between the interbank policy rate and (i) the collateralized loan rate, (ii) the uncollateralized loan rate, (iii) the T-bill rate, (iv) the net marginal product of capital, and (v) a pure intertemporal rate. We find a differential of over 3% p.a. between (iii) and (iv), thereby contributing to resolution of the equity premium puzzle. Dynamic impulse response functions imply pro- or counter-cyclical movements in an external finance premium that can be of quantitative significance. In addition, they suggest that a central bank that fails to recognize the distinction between interbank and other short rates could miss its appropriate settings by as much as 4% p.a. Also, shocks to banking productivity or collateral effectiveness call for large responses in the policy rate.     

Comparative Performance of Chinese Commercial Banks: Analysis,Findings and Policy Implications

This paper investigates the financial performance of Chinesebanks by using financial ratio analysis. The analysis shows that the lowprofitability of state-owned commercial banks results from their higherratio for non-interest expenses and lower interest margin thanjoint-equity banks. The much lower profit margin in state-owned banksdraws down their levels of ROE and ROA, even with the offsetting effectsof more efficient utilization of their assets and higher financialleverage. Although data limitations prevent us from studying the riskprofiles of the banks in detail, it is clear that these Chinese banksgenerated lower returns with higher financial risks than their Westerncounterparts. The paper concludes with a discussion of major issuesaffecting Chinese bank performance. Significant difficulties encounteredin assessing bank performance are also identified anddiscussed.     

International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore

This paper investigates the responses of market interest rates to US monetary policy announcements for the US and two emerging economies, Hong Kong and Singapore which are similar on many respects but have experienced opposite exchange rate regimes in the last twenty years. Our results, based on market expectations extracted from federal fund futures rates, document that FOMC announcements significantly affect the term structure of interest rate in the US and both Asian countries. Further, international interest rate differentials around FOMC meeting dates tend to be negative for short maturities with the impact gradually dissipating as bond maturity increases. Finally, for the case of Singapore, we find that domestic interest rates react to both external and domestic monetary policy announcements with a magnitude that is larger over the full bond maturity spectrum for domestic announcements. These results are robust to time-varying futures risk premia and alternative measures of interest rates expectations.     

The influence of chronic and temporary accessibility on trust and policy support

Abstract

Food is very closely related to our everyday life and consumers are intolerable to food risk. The impact of media report on food risk perception has been addressed but more elaborated approach on consumers’ cognitive process of food risk perception via media is needed. Theoretically guided by accessibility theory, we examined the relationship between consumers’ perception of food risk (i.e. food schema), media use, media frame, trust, and policy support. Furthermore, anger was employed as a mediating variable influencing on trust and policy support. Results found that the level of media use had a significant positive effect on trust and policy support. Among the media frames, the government responsibility frame and corporate responsibility frame were shown to be negative predictors for trust and policy support. As for the food schema, checking schema was the most influential negative factor on trust and policy support. Anger was found to exert a negative effect on trust and policy support but this effect decreased if the level of trust was high. In terms of the relationship between media frames and the food schema on anger, most food schema reduced the strong positive effects of the media frame on anger. This means peoples’ anger induced by media frames can be diminished by individuals’ specific food schema. Both theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

绩效、控股权与战略投资者:转型经济银行改革的经验

东欧转型经济与中国当前的银行改革具有相似性。东欧国家在第一次银行改革中保持了国有控股权,但并没有提高经营绩效,继续开放导致超过75%的银行资产被外资控制。东欧国家的经验表明:在继续保持国有控股的情况下,引进战略投资者作为小股东并不能建立良好的银行治理结构,也不会有效改善经营业绩;而外国战略投资者控股银行后能够显著提高银行业绩,但国家也丧失了银行控股权,似乎在现有的改革路线中改善绩效与保持银行控股权二者不可兼得。因此,中国如果必须保持国内力量对主要银行的控股权,则应借鉴招商银行模式,建立国内大型企业法人持股的治理结构。     

银行业全面开放下外资银行的监管:近代中国的经验及启示

近代中国被动开放银行业,政府无力尽监管之责,外资银行一旦经营失败给国家和人民带来巨大损失.而现在银行业全面开放是我国的自主选择,在借鉴历史经验的基础上,对外资银行的监管要有全面和清醒的认识.全面开放并不是放任,监管也不意味着制约,要在开放中不断完善对外资银行的监管.     

Securitization markets and central banking: An evaluation of the term asset-backed securities loan facility

In response to the near collapse of US securitization markets in 2008, the Federal Reserve created the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which offered non-recourse loans to finance investors’ purchases of certain highly rated asset-backed securities. We study the effects of this program and find that it lowered interest rate spreads for some categories of asset-backed securities but had little impact on the pricing of individual securities. These findings suggest that the program improved conditions in securitization markets but did not subsidize individual securities. We also find that the risk of loss to the US government was small.     

A multi-level and multi-actor approach to risk governance: a conceptual framework to support policy development for Ambrosia weed control

Invasive species such as Ambrosia (an annual weed) pose a biosecurity risk whose management depends on the knowledge, attitudes and practices of many stakeholders. It can therefore be considered a complex policy and risk governance problem. Complex policy problems are characterised by high uncertainty, multiple dimensions, interactions across different spatial and policy levels, and the involvement of a multitude of actors and organisations. This paper provides a conceptual framework for analysing the multi-level and multi-actor dimensions of Ambrosia management. Potential and existing public, private and public–private management strategies are identified to address the interests and needs of different actor groups across different levels. We conclude that policies that promote a mix of public and private Ambrosia management strategies may respond better to the needs and interests of different actor groups across different levels than a one-size-fits-all approach. However, multiple policy strategies need to be aligned in order to lead to synergies and spreading coherent messages to the public. Collaboration may enhance the likelihood of biosecurity management and risk governance of Ambrosia being adequately implemented and enforced.     

商业银行董事会治理：特征与绩效——基于美国银行业的实证研究

本文以1996—2005年间美国43家商业银行为样本,实证分析了商业银行董事会治理的特征及其对绩效的影响。研究表明:平均而言,商业银行董事会的规模略大于非金融性企业的这一指标,且外部董事的比例较高;董事会规模与银行绩效之间存在非线性的倒U型曲线关系,但外部董事的比例对银行绩效的影响不显著;董事长与总经理两职合一、董事会次级委员会的数量、外部董事拥有的董事席位数均与银行绩效显著负相关;董事会会议频率对当年度银行绩效的影响不显著,但与前一会计年度的绩效之间存在显著的负相关关系;董事持股比例与银行绩效之间存在非线性的关系,而总经理任职年限对银行绩效的影响不显著。     

中国银行业税负比较、绩效影响与对策选择

本文通过历史比较与国际比较,指出中国银行业虽然综合税负不断下降,但仍较国外偏重,进而运用面板数据模型论证了相对过重的税收负担对中国银行业经营绩效产生负效应,最后,提出降低我国银行业税负的若干政策建议,以应对经济全球化和国际金融危机的双重挑战,提高中国银行业在开放金融体系中的竞争力。     

Shari’ah supervision,corporate governance and performance: Conventional vs. Islamic banks

The performance and accountability of boards of directors and effectiveness of governance mechanisms continue to be a matter of concern. Focusing on differences between conventional banks and Islamic banks, we examine the effect of (i) Shari’ah supervision boards, (ii) board structure and (iii) CEO-power on performance during the period 2005–2011. We find Shari’ah supervision boards positively impact on Islamic banks’ performance when they perform a supervisory role, but the impact is negligible when they have only an advisory role. The effect of board structure (board size and board independence) and CEO power (CEO-chair duality and internally recruited CEO) on the performance of Islamic banks is overall negative. Our findings provide support for the positive contribution of Shari’ah supervision boards but also emphasize the need for enforcement and regulatory mechanism for them to be more effective.     

王权图腾化:政教合一的中国政治文化传统——读杨阳《王权图腾化——政教合一与中国社会》有感

中国传统文化之基本精神,不是脱离中国传统社会结构和历史情境,单纯从某些思想家的思想及相关思想典籍中归纳总结出的观念性概念。中国传统文化必须既是其社会结构、生活样式和政治体制的反映,还必须是上到君主,下到黎民百姓内心的情感、价值和信仰世界的表达。儒学正是在中国乡土村落社会结构之上建立了王权与村落共同体之间的共同价值,通过宗教人伦政治化和政治宗教人伦化,实现王权的宗教人伦化,而成为中国政教合一文化的"图腾"。