The theory of economic price and quantity indicators

Summary. This paper develops the theory of economic price and quantity indicators, being the difference analogue of indexes. The properties of indicators and indexes are compared. Observable bounds for the indicators will be derived, as well as two exactness results for Bennet (1920)-type price and quantity indicators.Received: 3 January 2002, Revised: 2 December 2002, JEL Classification Numbers: C43Previous versions of this paper were presented at the Economic Measurement Group Workshop 2001, School of Economics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 30 March 2001, and at a seminar at the School of Economics, University of New England, Armidale NSW, 7 September 2001. The authors thank Erwin Diewert for helpful comments on a previous version. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect any policy of Statistics Netherlands.     

A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decisionmakers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was − 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage and depletion of natural resources. There are a few limitations that we consider need to be improved in our CBA framework and method, nevertheless they have many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable.     

Corporate yield curves as predictors of future economic and financial indicators

The government yield curve is known for its ability to predict the future growth rate of the economy. Later studies showed that credit spreads can assist in predicting macroeconomic behaviour as well. We extend this notion by utilizing corporate yield curves and demonstrating that corporate yield curve spreads can predict future economic growth, the future state of the economy and stock market behaviour. In addition, our sample covers the most recent data available, and it also includes the crash year of 2008 and the recovery period following it. Our results reveal a trade-off effect between the government yield curve, which is a better predictor for long-term forecasting, and the corporate yield curves, which are better predictors for short-term predictions. In addition, we show that both the government and corporate yield curves are more effective in predicting negative rather than positive economic changes.     

Intriguing pendula: founding metaphors in the analysis of economic fluctuations

The paper is an inquiry into the definition of the early econometricprogramme, namely into the discussions which Frisch and Schumpeterheld in the early 1930s about the most suitable model for representinginnovations, change and equilibrium in economics. The argument and its framework are briefly presented in thefirst section. The 1931 correspondence between the two foundersof the Econometric Society is discussed in the second section.It provides a magnificent example of the importance of rhetoricsin economics, of the heuristic role of constitutive metaphorsin a research programme and of the difficulties in definingthe most suitable mathematical formalism for dealing with cyclesand structural change. The third section presents the conclusionof the story: the bifurcation between the resulting contributionsmade by Frisch (Propagation problems and impulse problems indynamic economics, pp. 171-205 in Koch, K. (ed.), Economic Essaysin Honour of Gustav Cassel, London, Frank Cass, 1933) and Schumpeter(Business Cycles, New York, McGraw, 1939; and the posthumousvolume, History of Economic Analysis, London, Routledge, 1954).Finally, the fourth section presents an alternative epilogue,highlighting some of the hidden implications of these verbalaccounts of pendula as the founding metaphor for business cycles. The paper is based upon as yet unpublished papers that werefound in Frisch's Collections (Oslo University Library and Frisch'sRommet at the Institute of Economics) and Schumpeter's Collection(Harvard University).     

Terms of trade movements and the global economic crisis

Dramatic changes in the relative prices of goods in international trade have accompanied, and indeed preceded, the recent global crisis. The causes and effects of the relative price changes are analysed by applying the analysis of business cycles developed by Joseph Schumpeter. Schumpeter’s analysis emphasises innovation and structural change (particularly creative destruction) which impart uneven development on the economy and can foster financial crises. This puts the current crisis in the context of long-wave development of the capitalist system and leads to predictions about the likely path of price and output changes over the next few decades.     

Modelling the dynamics of EU economic sentiment indicators: an interaction-based approach

This article estimates a simple univariate model of expectation or opinion formation in continuous time adapting a ‘canonical’ stochastic model of collective opinion dynamics (Weidlich and Haag, 1983 Weidlich, W, and Haag, G, 1983. Concepts and Models of a Quantitative Sociology. Berlin: Springer; 1983.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Lux, 1995 Lux, T, 1995. Herd behavior, bubbles and crashes, The Economic Journal 105 (1995), pp. 881–96.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2009a Lux, T, 2009a. Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 72 (2009a), pp. 638–55.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This framework is applied to a selected data set on survey-based expectations from the rich EU business and consumer survey database for 12 European countries. The model parameters are estimated through Maximum Likelihood (ML) and numerical solution of the transient probability density functions for the resulting stochastic process. The model's success is assessed with respect to its out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to univariate Time Series (TS) models of the Autoregressive Moving Average model, ARMA(p,?q) and Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average, ARFIMA(p,?d,?q) varieties. These tests speak for a slight superiority of the canonical opinion dynamics model over the alternatives in the majority of cases.     

Classical and modern business cycle measurement: The European case

This paper intends to harmonize two different approaches employed in the analysis of business cycles and, in doing so, it retrieves the stylized facts of the business cycle in Europe. We start with the classical approach proposed in Burns and Mitchell (1946) of dating and analyzing the business cycle. The stylized facts retrieved are commented and compared to those obtained by Harding and Pagan (2002) for the U.S.. Two conclusions can be extracted from the results: a) though the turning points obtained for individual countries seem to cluster and would suggest the idea of a common cycle, there are relevant differences in the stylized facts characterizing the business cycle in the individual European economies under analysis; b) moreover, we find relevant differences in the business cycle stylized facts of the European countries and the U.S., mostly in terms of the duration, the amplitude of the cycle and the shape of the recovery. We then adopt the modern alternative: the Markov-switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR). The models regime probabilities provide an optimal statistical inference of the turning point of the European business cycle. For assessing the capacity of the parametric approach to generate the stylized facts of the classical cycle in Europe, the stylized facts of the original data are compared to those of simulated data. Contrary to the results reported by Harding and Pagan (2002) , we show that the MS-VAR model is a good candidate to be used as an statistical instrument to improve the understanding of the business cycle.JEL Classification: E32, F43, F47, C32We are grateful to Mike Artis, Mike Clements and Adrian Pagan for useful comments and discussions. Financial support from the UK Economic and Social Research Council under grant L116251015 is gratefully acknowledged by the first author. The research of the second author was supported through a European Community Marie Curie Fellowship, contract HPMF-CT-2000-00761. Corresponding author: Juan Toro     

On the measurement of patent stock as knowledge indicators

Most of the conventional indicators for measuring the amount of technological knowledge (TK) have so far been input-based indicators. Hence, there is growing need to develop output-based indicators, and accordingly some studies have been conducted thereon. However, previous research has adopted patent count or patent stock by simple count in measuring the amount of TK as output-based indicators. The principal problem with using this variable is that the value of individual patent is too heterogeneous. That is a large portion of these patent databases are either of little value or nothing at all. As a result, patent count or patent stock by simple count cannot be seen as a suitable measure of TK.In this study, we attempted to resolve the value-heterogeneity problem in measuring patent stock. The notion of citation-based patent stock (CPS) and valuation-based patent stock (VPS) is proposed in this paper and the calculation method is described in detail. In CPS, the economic value of individual patent is assumed to be proportional to the number of citations received from other patents. And in VPS, the economic value of individual patent is derived from the value distribution of patents registered in some cohort by manipulating the patent renewal data. We validated the indicators by comparing them with the usual input-based indicators and by analyzing the relationships between them and the productivity growth empirically.     

On the role of personal relationships for doing business in the Greater Pearl River Delta,China

This article investigates the role of personal relationships for doing business in the Greater Pearl River Delta, China (GPRD). First, it discusses the interplay of formal and informal (relationship-based) institutions based on institutional economics. Second, it describes the institutional environment for doing business in China, and in the GPRD in particular. Third, it uses data obtained from a survey among executives of Hong Kong electronics SMEs with business operations in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) to gain insights into their perceptions of the importance and the motives of using personal relationships for business in PRD in general, and on the impact of personal relationships on location and partner decisions for companies' production as well as innovation activities, in particular. The results confirm the importance of personal relationships for doing business in the GPRD and suggest that companies rely on personal relationships for business not only for cultural reasons but also to cope with deficient legal and political institutions.     

China and the global business revolution

As China joins the World Trade Organisation, the author questionswhether China's large firms will be able to compete on the globallevel playing field. Over the past two decades, Chinese largeenterprises have undertaken extensive evolutionary change (comparableto that of other latecomer countries such as Korea, Taiwan andSingapore) but, at the same time, the world's leading firmshave undergone a revolutionary transformation. Based on analysisderived from case studies made in the course of the China BigBusiness Programme at the Judge Institute of Management Studies,Cambridge, the author concludes that China's large firms havenot caught up with the world's leading businesses.     

Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone

In this paper we study business cycle correlations in the Eurozone and its determinants. Additionally, we also analyze the determinants of the lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone. We explore the relevance, in the Eurozone context, using GDP and employment as the business cycle measures, of the determinants of business cycle synchronization identified in the literature, namely bilateral trade intensity, dissimilarity of labor market rigidity, dissimilarity in industrial structures, financial openness, and foreign direct investment relations. We estimate a simultaneous 4-equations model by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and three-stage least square to investigate empirically the above-mentioned determinants of business cycle correlation. Bilateral trade relations present a positive influence on business cycle correlations, while the dissimilarity of labor market rigidity presents a negative influence. The rest of the above-mentioned variables are non-significant. These results are robust to the use of the Hodrick–Prescott-filter and first differences as the de-trending methods, as well as the use of GDP as the business cycle measure, excluding the financial crisis years (2008 and 2009). Results for employment as the business cycle measure are in contrast with the previous ones, and found industrial dissimilarity to be the relevant variable to determine business cycles synchronization. In what concerns the determinants of the lead and lag behavior, results show that the member states of the Eurozone that usually lead the cycle are the ones that are wealthier, with strict employment legislation, more specialized in construction and finance sectors, and more prone to international capital movements. Differences in the determinants between contemporaneous business cycles and lead and lag behavior of business cycles are especially important for policy-makers in the Eurozone to know about, in particular if asymmetric shocks between countries are set in place.     

跨国公司在华业务整合——以日立与摩根热陶瓷为例

跨国公司在华业务整合是近年来兴起的一种现象,随着跨国公司在华20多年的经营扩展和国际环境与东道国环境的变化,业务整合成为了一种明显的趋势。本方根据跨国公司在华经营活动的实践,提出其在华业务整合的问题。文章对该领域的研究进展进行了回顾,在此基础上运用了跨国公司全球战略、公司重构、以及环境、战略与组织等前沿理论进行阐释,并探讨了跨国公司在华业务整合的背景、动因和模式,从而形成几个维度的安例分析框架。文章对日本日立和英国摩根热陶瓷公司进行了实地造访调研,取得了一手资料,并围绕以上几个维度对调研结果进行了比较研究,分析出两公司在华业务整合的异同点,探讨了该研究对今后跨国公司在华业务整合的涵义和启示。     

Culture phenomenon analysis on the forest tour activity of China

1. Introduction The forest tour is the mankind’s returning to the forest and nature and the mankind’s aesthetic emo tion of the forest. Our country is still relatively defi cient in the culture phenomenon of forest tour tha is studied at present. This paper tries to analyze the cultural factors of the forest tourist activity in terms of culture. 1.1 Culture connotation In Chinese “Wen” means a variety of lamination that is interlock, and “Hua” means that changes eas ily or brings good …     

Capability and opportunism: Evidence from city officials in China

Opportunism is prevalent in political competition and public policy making. This paper investigates how opportunism is mitigated by capabilities among city leaders in China. Taking advantage of China’s institutional setup with ample bureaucratic transfers, the paper estimates leaders’ capabilities as their personal contributions to local economic growth. The paper finds strong evidence of political business cycles – a typical form of political opportunism – as manifested by a significant boost in the growth rate preceding the Communist Party’s national congress. However, more capable leaders are found to generate more modest political business cycles than less capable ones do. The findings suggest that, to the extent that political selections are associated with the long term reputation of officials, career-concerned opportunism is at least partially moderated by the selection of capable officials in China. The paper provides supportive evidence for the reputation model of political business cycles as well as enriches the study of government officials in weak institutional environments.     

Alternative indicators for predicting the probability of declining inflation: evidence from the US

The performance of inflation indicators for predicting the probabilityof inflation falling inside constant and moving targets is consideredwith a probit model using US data. Given the Federal ReserveSystem's emphasis on achieving price stability, particular attentionis given to the target that future inflation will be below recentinflation. In contrast with earlier years, the unemploymentand capacity utilisation rates do not perform well in forecastingthe direction of inflation in the mid and late 1990s. We suggestthat extending the Keynesian Phillips curve analysis to considerchanges in labour market conditions, technological advance andworker skills, and openness will increase understanding of theseissues.     

An economic analysis of the possibility of reducing pesticides in French field crops

The paper aims to study the effects of reducing pesticide use by farmers in the arable sector in France and the feasibility of a policy target of reducing pesticide use by half. The originality of the approach is to combine statistical data and expert knowledge to describe low-input alternative techniques at the national level. These data are used in a mathematical programming model to simulate the effect on land use, production and farmers' income of achieving different levels of pesticide reduction. The results show that reducing pesticide use by 30% could be possible without reducing farmers' income. We also estimate the levels of tax on pesticides necessary to achieve different levels of reduction of pesticide use and the effect of an incentive mechanism combining a pesticide tax with subsidies for low-input techniques.     

中国转型期的信贷波动与经济波动

本文基于1981-2002年的季度数据,考察了在经济转轨的不同阶段我国信贷波动的特征,并通过时差相关分析和Granger因果关系检验,分析了信贷波动与经济周期波动的相互关系.结果表明,总体上信贷波动与经济周期波动基本同步,信贷扩张和收缩是产生经济周期波动的显著影响因素,但这种影响从20世纪90年代中期开始有所下降,同时,信贷波动的内生性开始显现.     

On the importance of institutions and forms of organisation in Piero Sraffa's economics: the case of business cycles,money, and economic policy

Abstract

This paper is based on an investigation of the Sraffa Archives and tries to characterise Piero Sraffa's approach to business cycles and economic policy. It includes two parts. The first part of the paper shows the importance of economic institutions and social conventions in Sraffa's contribution to economics and their relation with social conflicts. The second part of the paper shows how this importance permits to understand better business cycles and economic policy but also indirectly contributes to a re-interpretation of Sraffa's contribution to economics.     

Regional economic growth and the role of high-speed rail in China

Rapid development of High-speed railways (HSR) in China has attracted serious research interest. This paper proposes an endogenous economic growth model to explain how and why HSR may lead to faster economic growth and regional convergence in China using data from 285 cities in 2010–2014. TSLS estimation suggests that HSR has a powerful impact on urban economic growth and regional convergence. It suggests that HSR was a potent driver responsible for the sustainable and steady economic expansion of the Chinese regions in the aftermath of the world financial crisis.