Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Singapore’s economic growth

Singapore’s remarkable success in economic development has been strongly associated with the country’s vigorous efforts to embrace the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) revolution to promote economic growth. This study provides a comprehensive investigation of the contributions of ICT to Singapore’s economic growth during the 1990–2008 period. It documents three key findings. First, there is a strong positive association between the intensity of ICT use and value-added and labor productivity growth at the sector level. Second, ICT investment contributed approximately 1 percentage point to Singapore’s GDP during 1990–2008, and its role in driving economic growth has become increasingly important over time. Third, the contribution of the ICT manufacturing sector to Singapore’s growth was notable, but it was on the decline and faced difficult restructuring challenges. This paper also provides valuable policy lessons and strategic insights for governments in both developed and developing countries that aspire to embrace ICT to promote economic growth.     

Marshall’s disciples: knowledge and innovation driving regional economic development and growth

Studies of knowledge and innovation as driving forces of regional development and growth offer a myriad of approaches. Here, questions asked, methods used and answers given are manifold. In our overview, we cover recent developments in this research area. Moreover, we explore the question as to the extent to which approaches in this research area compete with or complement one another. It turns out that the various studies are much more complementary than competitive. However, there is still much ground to be covered before we fully understand the processes underlying the creation and dissemination of knowledge and innovation leading to regional development and growth.JEL Classification: R11, O32, O33, O18 Correspondence to: Claudia WerkerThis Special Issue is the outcome of the workshop on Knowledge and Innovation in Creating and Sustaining Regional Growth in a Global Environment held at Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands, July 10 ^th until 12 ^th , 2003. Financial support by the Dutch research council (NWO), the Centre for Economic Research (CfER) of the Open University Milton Keynes (UK) as well as by Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS, The Netherlands) is gratefully acknowledged; as is the organizational support by ECIS. We are grateful for helpful comments by Ron Boschma and Joachim Schwerin. Moreover, we would like to thank Uwe Cantner for his kind support in making this Special Issue happen. Naturally, the usual disclaimer applies.     

Econometric analysis of China’s GDP growth and industrial structure

Since the Reform and Opening-up in 1978,China’s economy,society and other fields have developed very rapidly.Economic growth has achieved leapfrog development,and the three industries have achieved great development,but the overall industrial structure needs to be improved.At present,China’s economy has entered the “New Normal”.In order to achieve “Sound and Rapid” economic development,it is imperative to transform the industrial structure.Using econometric analysis and based on China’s economic...     

Cuba’s reform and economic growth: a comparative perspective with Vietnam

Cuban reform process lags behind the GDP growth reached by the Vietnamese. When comparing the evolution of the different sectors and demand components of GDP, Vietnam has had higher growth rates in all cases, highlighting exports first and investment second. Once the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth model has been estimated, the significant effect of the foreign exchange constraints on growth for both countries is confirmed. However, the Vietnam growth can be explained not only by its export success. International openness, which included the end of the US embargo, and institutional factors also explains the differential of results.     

Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.     

‘Nil Repente!’: Galiani and Necker on economic reforms

The problem of the transition to a market economy provoked a lasting and important debate in eighteenth-century Ferance. The climax was reached during the 1760s and the 1770s with the two important pre-revoluntionary attempts, in 1763–64 and 1774a–76, to liberalize the French economy and, initially, the grain market. During these controversies, the reformers’ camp clearly split into two groups - the so-called ‘moderates’ and the alleged enthousiastes - which were apparently in deep disagreement as to the strategy to adopt in such circumstances. Among the ‘moderates’, two authors especially are of great interest: Ferdinando Galiani and Jacques Necker, who crystallized and developed the ideas of their camp to promote a strategy of prudence.

This paper analyes their arguments on the issue at stake: the objectives and methods of a transition to a market economy. The historical and intellectual context of the debate is first briefly restated and the basic theoretical tenets of Galiani's and Necker's critique are then outlined. The various obstacles which, in our author's opinion, were likely to come from the opponents to a transition to a market economy or from its proponents are analysed, and Galiani's and Necker's main ideas on the best way to achieve successful reforms are stressed. Some provisional conclusions are dawn at the end.     

Population dividend and economic growth in China, 1978–2018

ABSTRACT

China witnessed important demographic transitions during the past 40 years. The significant decline in fertility rate, as a result of both policy change and economic factors, generated the so-called population dividends – rising proportion of working age population – during the past several decades. This paper demonstrates important channels through which broadly defined population dividends contribute to economic growth in China, by magnifying roles of capital, by improving labor quality, alongside increases in labor supply, and by strengthening labor mobility. As population aging now takes over from population dividends as the main demographic trend, it is possible for China to continue its strong growth by focusing on both the traditional growth factors, such as further reducing the proportion of agricultural workers, and new growth factors, such as further improving productivity by strengthening human capital and weakening institutional obstacles.     

Energy efficiency and economic growth of China： 1953-2006

Energy plays an important role in the economic life. With the rapid development of economy, the constraint of energy on the sustainable development of economy is becoming more and more obvious. This paper just Studies the factors influencing energy efficiency of China and the relationship between energy efficiency and China＇s economic： growth. By using time series multivariable linear regression methods with China＇s relevant data from 1953 to 2006, this paper constructs the regression model to analyze the factors that would impact energy, efficiency. After that, a regression model of China＇s real output to capital, labor and energy e lficiency is conducted to estimate the marginal contribution of every factor to the real output to prove the fundamental influence of energy efficiency to the economic growth. In the end, some policies and recommendations are also put forward in order to improve the energy efficiency; of China.     

Measurement matters: understanding China’s growth rates

The recent decline in year-on-year (y/y) growth rate has sparked fear of a China ‘hard landing’. However, the literature found that y/y measures can be inadequate in catching cyclical turning points, especially when, as now in China, a short, sharp deceleration has occurred but bottomed out within the past 12 months. We regard three-month/three-month seasonally adjusted annualized growth rates (QSAA) as a better leading indicator for identifying patterns than y/y growth rates given that QSAA not only irons out very short-term volatility by taking a three-month moving average, it summarizes information from the previous six months (y/y indicators only exhibit the latest data point and information 12 months ago). Based on a sample of six important Chinese economic indicators, we find the new measure shows a different growth trajectory relative to that measured by the y/y growth rate. Thus, policy makers may find the new measures complementary to the widely used y/y growth rates in decision making.     

Research on China’s export structure to the US: Analysis based on the US economic growth and exchange rate

Due to the rapid appreciation of RMB, the consistent declining of the US economy and other uncertain factors, China’s export volume to the United States has declined. The paper first chooses six industries to divide them into three groups based on per capita possession of capital, then employs the monthly data from 2001 to 2008 to carry out EG two-step cointegration test, and finally analyzes the impacts of the US economic growth and the exchange rate variability on different export industries. Empirical results show that the labor-intensive industries are most susceptible to fluctuations brought by economic growth and real exchange rate, while those industries with higher per capita possession of capital are less susceptible to external factors. In the short run, the export of labor-intensive products gives an advantage to China’s foreign trade development, but in the long-run, these industries will be affected greatly by various uncertain factors and the advantages of China’s labor-intensive export industries will disappear with the shift of the international division. Therefore, the only way to guarantee the dominant position of China’s foreign trade is to develop capital and technology intensive export industries and upgrade export structure.     

The transformation of China＇s economic and government functions

The content of China＇s economic transformation is not single, and this article argues that it includes three parts. The first is the reform of economic system, the second is the change in the pattern of economic growth, and the third is the adjustment of economic structure. Government is the leading force of China＇s economic transformation, and repeated reform of government institutions has brought about some changes to government functions. But problems are obvious that lag changes of government functions have become an obstacle in China＇s economic transformation. This article describes the historical evolution and the reality of China＇s economic transformation, and analyzes the main reasons of lag changes in government functions, and reveals that the transformation of government functions is the key for successful transformation of China＇s economy.     

Can the augmented Solow model explain China’s remarkable economic growth? A cross-country panel data analysis

China’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 9% over the last three decades. Despite the vast empirical literature on testing the neoclassical model of economic growth using data on various groups of countries, very few cross-country regressions include China and none of them particularly focuses on the explanation of China’s remarkable economic growth. We attempt to fill this gap by utilising panel data on 146 countries over the period 1980–2004 to examine the extent to which the rapid growth of China and the huge gap in the growth rate between China and other countries can be explained by the augmented Solow model. Using system GMM estimation techniques, we find that, in spite of the restrictive assumptions involved, the Solow model augmented by both human capital and structural change provides a fairly good account of international variation in economic growth. In particular, China’s relative success in economic growth is due to high physical capital investment, conditional convergence gain, dramatic changes in the structure of employment and output, and low population growth.     

Unusual patterns in China’s prefectural GDP growth rates

This article examines the last (rightmost) digit of China’s prefectural GDP growth rates, and find that they are unevenly distributedamong 0 to 9. There are too many 0s, 1s, 2s, 5s and too few 4s, 7s, 9s. Moreover, the distribution of the last digit is less skewed when the macro economy grows quickly and when the prefecture’s growth rate ranks high within the province. These patterns reveal that local officials artificially influence the data in order to exceed some thresholds. However, they do not necessarily imply that China's GDP data are falsified.     

‘Unproductive’ sectors and economic growth: a theoretical analysis

This paper examines the role of service, nonmarket and unproductive activity sectors in causing stagnation. The literature on this subject is critically discussed and it is argued that although these three sectors are not the same, the discussion of their roles raises similar theoretical issues regarding the nature of sectoral distinctions and macroeconomic structure. Three simple models are developed to illustrate how these ‘unproductive’ sectors may or may not cause stagnation. It is concluded that more attention should be given to sectoral distinctions and macroeconomic structures before these sectors are dismissed as being ‘unproductive’.     

Does economic growth and energy consumption drive environmental degradation in China’s 31 provinces? New evidence from a spatial econometric perspective

The panel data analysis points to economic and social factors contributing to NO_x, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, and VOCs in China’s 31 provinces. The spatial correlation analysis using Global and Local Moran’s I values indicates the existence of a significant and positive spatial autocorrelation with respect to environment, economy and energy, and the high spatial correlation is evident in the eastern region, covering the northern part of Yangtze River Delta, Huaihai Economic Zone, and the lower reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt. The empirical estimation is performed through spatial lag and spatial Durbin models. All emitted air pollutants in 31 provinces have significant spatial dependence and strong spillover effects. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between emitted air pollutants (NO_x, PM₁₀, VOCs, and PM_2.5) and per capita GDP, which follows the EKC hypothesis. The relationship between SO₂ and per capita GDP does not follow the EKC hypothesis. There is a positive relationship between pollutant emissions and coal consumption, which is consistent with current studies for various countries like Canada, Denmark, UK and US and regions like New York State. However, the effects of science and technology investment on air pollutants are mostly positive, which is not as policy expected.     

The impact of coal price fluctuations on China’s economic output

Due to the important role of coal in China’s macroeconomic growth, the price of coal significantly influences its economic output. Employing a VAR model, a cointegration test and a state-space model of time-varying variables, this article analyses the influence of coal price fluctuations on the volume and structure of China’s economic output, including both the strength and the time delay of such influence. This article further explores the corresponding relationships between coal price fluctuations and variations in the effects of these fluctuations to analyse the asymmetric influence of coal price fluctuations on China’s macroeconomy. Coal price fluctuations exerted significant long-term positive effects and short-term negative effects on China’s output variables, with an average delay of 11 months; they had positive effects on investment and consumption over the long term and an increasingly negative effect on imports and exports. The average delays were 9 months for investment, 6.5 months for consumption and 10 months for imports and exports. There was an asymmetric correlation between coal price fluctuations and the time-varying elasticity of their impact on GDP. The results in this study are consistent with the actual operating circumstances of the Chinese economy.     

Energy consumption promotes economic growth or economic growth causes energy use in China? A panel data analysis

This study tries to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for twenty-nine provinces of China by employing the panel Granger causality analysis. The econometric methodology used in this paper allows us to untangle the causal nexus between energy consumption and economic growth and helps us to discriminate between competing theories on which hypothesis is applicable to China. Among the main results, it is found that there is no causality in two out of twenty-nine provinces and bidirectional causality is observed in sixteen out of twenty-nine provinces. Unidirectional causality is observed in eleven out of twenty-nine provinces of China. When bootstrap critical values are used, our empirical findings indicate that there is an unidirectional causal link running from real output to energy use for China, implying that economic growth significantly affects energy consumption, and hence, the conservation hypothesis is applicable to China.     

The obstacles of China＇s economic transformation

In the past 30 years, China has gone from the transformation from a planned economy to a market economy, from the extensive economic growth mode to intensive economic growth model, and from relying on investment and export-led economy to relying on domestic demand and stimulating economic. China＇s economic transformation includes three parts： The first is the reform of economic system, the second is the change in the pattern of economic growth and the third is the adjustment of economic structure. This article describes the historical evolution and the reality of China＇s economic transformation, analysis the obstacles to China＇s economic transformation, and on this basis, put forward some suggestions.     

Transition of China��s growth pattern

China has achieved hyper economic growth in the past three decades. The achievement, though spectacular, is nothing incomprehensible to modern economic theories. A number of characteristic factors, short-term or long-term, have been favorable to fast growth. The market-oriented reforms that started thirty years ago have installed the preconditions for the economy to benefit from these factors. As China rises to the rank of middle-income countries, some conditions that used to support fast economic growth are now undergoing profound changes. These changes have important implications on capital formation and productivity growth, the two major drivers of growth. With the era of hyper economic growth coming to its end, the growth pattern of the Chinese economy is in transition. That calls for a transformation of government’s role in the economy to answer the challenges of this transition.