Financial Supervision: Integrated or Specialized?The case of Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper discusses the relative merits of the two approaches of financial regulation and supervision for the case of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In doing so, it reviews the main arguments advanced in the specialized literature in pro and against of each approach. All the theoretical arguments are contrasted with available country experiences from around the world and discussed with a focus on the Latin American and Caribbean countries. A methodology to analyze the efficacy and the efficiency of each approach in meeting the main objectives of financial regulation is also provided. The paper concludes that in the present circumstances, the net benefits of adopting an integrated approach probably exceed the net benefits stemming from the adoption of a specialized approach for most of the countries in the region.     

Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences

We review some aspects of financial dollarization in Russia, applying the main relevant theories to analyse the dynamics of several dollarization indicators. An econometric model of the short-run dynamics of deposit and loan dollarization is estimated for the last decade. We find that ruble appreciation was the main driver of the de-dollarization that occurred then and of the later episode of renewed dollarization. We estimate the overall (and sectoral) currency mismatches of the Russian economy. Evidence is presented for the significant currency risk vulnerability of the non-banking private sector.     

金融国际化、金融危机与金融监管

从本次金融危机对国际金融监管体系提出的新挑战出发,本文探讨了金融国际化与金融监管体系改革的关系,以及金融危机对金融监管体系改革的影响。未来,金融监管将日趋国际化,更加注重风险性监管和对创新业务的监管,重视金融机构的内部控制制度和同业自律机制,而统一监管将成为监管体系发展的趋势。在此基础上,本文提出中国金融监管体系改革应走综合监管、统一监管之路,以适应混业经营发展和金融创新的需要;要加强宏观金融审慎监管,保证整个金融系统的稳定;注重保护投资者的合法权益;并不断完善与金融监管体系改革相配套的其他制度与措施。     

Efficiency Barriers to the Consolidation of the European Financial Services Industry

Cross-border consolidation of financial institutions within Europe has been relatively limited, possibly reflecting efficiency barriers to operating across borders, including distance; differences in language, culture, currency, and regulatory/supervisory structures; and explicit or implicit rules against foreign competitors. EU policies such as the Single Market Programme and European Monetary Union attenuate some but not all of these barriers. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that these barriers offset most of any potential efficiency gains from cross-border consolidation. Banks headquartered in other EU nations have slightly lower average measured efficiency than domestic banks and non-EU-based foreign banks.     

金融危机：商业银行觅境外并购之“机”

商业银行的境外并购,有助于深入推进国际化战略,拓展海外市场、优化业务结构、推动经营战略调整、增强协同效应。受金融危机影响,国内银行并购潜在对象增多、并购竞争对手减少、并购成本下降,越来越多的境外并购机会呈现在我国商业银行的面前。商业银行应选择文化接近、经营理念和模式易于融合的并购对象,采用实物期权定价方法估价被并购银行,做好并购整合,取得境外并购的成功。     

Financial Integration of Large- and Small-Cap Stocks in Emerging Markets

This study examines the financial integration of large- and small-cap stocks in twenty-three emerging markets to determine their degree of market integration with the world market. The international asset pricing model cannot be rejected for most large-cap stock portfolios, but it is rejected for small-cap stock portfolios. The findings also demonstrate that super-large-cap stocks have the fewest pricing errors and their global financial integration has increased in recent years. In sum, the empirical results indicate that global market integration is primarily associated with the super-large-cap stocks of large emerging markets.     

Liquidity and Return Relationships in an Emerging Market

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between liquidity and stock returns in the Vietnam stock market during the global financial crisis. Vietnam is one of a new group of frontier emerging markets referred to as CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa). We use a rich and detailed data set of firm characteristics to identify a positive relationship between liquidity and stock returns. This contradicts the negative correlation typically found in stock returns in developed markets. Our results support the proposition that when a market is not fully integrated with the global economy, a lack of liquidity will be a less important risk factor. Our findings contribute to those studies that highlight the diversification benefits from including frontier markets, which have a lower degree of integration with the global economy, in international portfolios.     

新兴市场金融脆弱性:基于国际资本易变性的分析

随着国际资本流动规模的日益庞大,其易变性的破坏力也越来越大,而且在新兴市场国家表现得尤为强烈,这加剧了新兴市场国家金融脆弱性。国际资本易变性从冲击货币稳定、影响国际收支的可维持性以及国际游资对金融市场的高度投机三个方面加剧了新兴市场金融脆弱性。它在新兴市场表现尤为强烈的原因在于新兴市场的不稳定性和不成熟性。     

Lessons from the financial crisis: failure of markets or failure of regulation?

The popular, demagogic narrative after the global financial system's collapse in 2008 has held that the financial crisis signalled the failure of capitalism. However, regulators across the world must realize that the financial crisis was not brought about by the failure of markets but by the failure of governments to appropriately regulate markets. Beginning in the 1980s, and continuing over the quarter-century that followed, regulators afforded the world of big finance an unaffordable luxury: insurance against possible failure. As a result, banks and financial institutions became adept at turning their insulation from disorderly failure, as enforced by free markets, into insulation from market discipline, as inflicted by myopic regulators. This ‘too big to fail’ syndrome combined with the incorrect belief perpetrated by the Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that financial companies, powered by a rational motive not to lose money, could police themselves and one another. In turn, such sanguine beliefs led to considerable over-supply of financial innovation. The supply created its own demand as the financial world operated under the implicit guarantee (and market distortion) created by the ‘too big to fail’ syndrome.

The errors laid bare by the financial crisis clearly call for regulatory reform. But in designing that reform, regulators across the world should avoid the temptation to seek heavy-handed new approaches. Instead, policymakers should look to the long-term success of the system of rules whose decay brought about the crisis. Prudent regulations must seek to reinforce the fundamental principle that no one, however big or small, can be made immune to failure. Such pro-market regulation of finance is essential to preserving and fostering countries’ economic futures.     

金融危机背景下商业银行开展物流金融业务的风险及防范

由次贷危机导致的金融风暴已向实体经济渗透,也给中国实体经济造成一定影响,并直接影响到物流金融业务,使物流金融业务的主角-商业银行面临新的风险.因此,商业银行要进一步创新物流金融业务的经营模式,分析商业银行所面临的新形势,并构建相应的风险规避和防范措施.     

The Financial Sector and Deregulation in Australia: Drivers of Reform or Reluctant Followers?

This paper argues that contrary to capture theory, a key feature of financial deregulation in Australia was the lack of support from financial sector interest groups. An examination of the Campbell Inquiry (1979-1981) reveals that deregulation was not initiated by either the regulated banks or unregulated non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). In fact, both groups were resistant to change prior to the establishment of the Inquiry. During the Inquiry, neither group advocated wide-ranging deregulation, preferring the retention of many financial regulations.     

金融危机启示:金融一体化监管趋势下的保险监管

任何一次危机的爆发都是风险释放的过程,研究危机更重要的是关注风险的积累过程。因此,分析危机前的风险积累过程,查找危机产生的原因,对防范和化解危机具有现实意义。本文通过对新近发生的美国次贷危机进而延伸到对10年前亚洲金融危机分析,以及全球金融一体化监管最新演进趋势的借鉴,论述我国保险监管组织架构的未来展望。     

银行业危机:金融泡沫视角的分析

自20世纪80年代以来,银行业危机爆发越显频繁。然而,通过对银行业危机内部形成机理分析可以发现,银行业危机的爆发其实是伴随着金融泡沫的形成与破灭这一过程的。在金融泡沫的形成过程中,银行往往会给一些高风险行业发放贷款,从而增加银行经营风险;而在金融泡沫破灭之后,这将直接或间接地导致银行产生大量的不良贷款,从而使银行业危机最终爆发。因此,我国应尽快化解国有商业银行的不良资产;完善银行微观治理结构;建立和完善金融监管机制。     

金融机构信贷扩张、资产价格波动与金融危机——基于资产负债表分析模型

金融危机具有周期性特征,通常在金融危机爆发前后会发生显著的资产价格剧烈波动。由于银行中介信贷周期与宏观经济周期的同周期性,金融危机爆发前的信贷扩张与资产价格泡沫积累掩盖了金融机构的系统性风险问题;市场高涨往往伴随着金融自由化思潮、道德风险问题与实质性监管松弛。基于对金融中介机构资产负债表量化模型的构建与分析,应从资本充足率、金融资产计量属性、坏账拔备比率三个维度采取逆周期金融监管策略,以降低金融危机发生的概率。     

金融形态的发展演变及金融监管转型的新要求

作为虚拟经济核心的金融既具有虚拟经济本质,也具有制度属性本质。文章基于虚拟经济与实体经济相互关系角度和社会经济体系的基础关系演化角度梳理了金融形态的发展历程,及各阶段特点与表现。金融监管应相应地立足于金融形态的最新发展,顺应金融制度的内生演化规律,在理念革新、目标重塑、体制整合等方面实现战略转型。     

Returns,Volatilities, and Correlations Across Mature,Regional, and Frontier Markets: Evidence from South Asia

We investigate returns, volatilities, and correlations across mature, dominant regional, and frontier equity markets. Standard & Poor's 500 is chosen as a mature equity market; India is chosen as a dominant regional market; and Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are chosen as frontier markets. Our empirical tests show that the frontier markets remain fundamentally decoupled from the mature markets during normal market periods. During turbulent times, the contagion effects from the mature to the frontier markets become more pronounced. The results suggest that the dominant regional market plays a key role in disseminating shocks across the frontier markets during normal periods; during the turbulent recent financial crisis period, a similar contagion is not observed.     

Risk-Adjusted Performances of World Equity Indices

This article investigates whether equity indices of twenty-four emerging and twenty-eight developed markets compensate their investors equally after adjusting for total or downside risk, and examines the predictive power of reward-to-risk ratios for expected market returns. We find that when all fifty-two markets are ranked based on their alternative reward-to-risk ratios, almost all of the countries in the top (bottom) quartile are emerging (developed) markets. The pooled means of the reward-to-risk ratios are also significantly higher for emerging markets. Both portfolio and regressions analysis reveal that there is a significantly positive relation between various reward-to-risk metrics and expected market returns.     

Foreign Investment in Emerging Markets: International Diversification or Familiarity Bias?

This study empirically tests whether foreign investors take advantage of international diversification when investing in emerging Asian markets. Using the 2007–2008 financial crisis as identification, we find that firms with higher foreign ownership had better stock returns during the financial crisis. Moreover, the diversification effect exists in five out of the eight emerging markets and is stronger in markets with a lower dynamic conditional correlation with the global market index. We also find that foreign investors prefer firms with a lower international sales ratio. In conclusion, the evidence consistently suggests that foreign investors take advantage of diversification effects.