Status-Seeking, Catching-Up, and Comparative Statics in a Dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin Model

This paper examines a two‐country dynamic general equilibrium model with status‐seeking agents. We show that the introduction of status‐seeking behavior brings about new properties in equilibrium dynamics. While there exists a continuum of steady states in the standard dynamic models, the present framework demonstrates that, under some conditions, there uniquely exists an incompletely specialized steady state, which is locally saddle‐point stable. Therefore, catching‐up and overtaking phenomena seen in economic development can be explained, and comparative statics analysis also is made possible. Our comparative statics analysis illustrates, for example, that trade pattern is determined in the Heckscher–Ohlin manner; the patient country acts just like a capital abundant one to export the capital‐intensive good. Furthermore, as distinct from the existing literature, the present study shows that the existence of an incompletely specialized steady state can be ensured even if the two countries conduct different policies.     

Efficiency-Wage Unemployment and Intersectoral Wage Differentials in a Heckscher–Ohlin Model

The paper analyzes a Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) model with efficiency-wage unemployment (henceforth HOe model). We show that all HO results have close HOe analogues. Additionally, conditions are derived under which immigrants might not only find employment for themselves but also raise employment for natives. Moreover, we analyze the ranking of countries with respect to their rate of unemployment, showing that this ranking may be reversed as countries move from autarky to trade. All results are clearly linked to factor intensities and the pattern of intersectoral wage differentials.     

Costly Factor Reallocation and Reduced Productivity Effects in International Trade

Most models of international trade assume extremes of factor mobility between productive uses. From perfectly mobile factors in the Heckscher–Ohlin model, to fixed capital and mobile labor in the Ricardo–Viner–Jones model, factors are assumed to move costlessly or not at all. In reality, factors are neither perfectly mobile nor fixed. This paper considers costs of reallocating factors between industries, deriving a measure of adjustment costs due to factor specificity in a two‐period model of a firm's input allocation decision. The degrees of specificity for labor and capital are then estimated based on data for 15 industries in 16 countries covering eight years. Estimating a system of nonlinear first‐order conditions using a three‐stage least squares technique, I find that recently reallocated factors are indeed less productive. Labor is 14% less productive in the period after reallocation, while capital productivity falls by 43%. Thereafter, capital, unlike labor, moves quickly toward full productivity.     

Convergence in a Dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin Model with Land

Convergence among nations that share the same preferences and technologies is a key result of the closed‐economy neoclassical growth framework that has received substantial support in the data. However, Heckscher–Ohlin versions of the two‐sector neoclassical growth model predict that nations that differ in their capital–labor ratios may not converge to the same steady state, even if they are identical in all other aspects. This is a puzzling result that warns us about potential dangers of international trade. In this paper we show that when land, an input in fixed supply, is introduced into the model, international trade in goods no longer limits the capacity of poor nations to catch up with the advanced world.     

Time Preference and Income Convergence in a Dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin Model

This paper shows that income convergence in an open‐economy setting hinges upon how the time discount rate of the households is determined. As opposed to the case of constant time discount rate where cross‐country income divergence may emerge, the small open economy may catch up with the rest of the world if the time discount rate increases with consumption. In contrast, if the time discount rate decreases with consumption, then the small open economy fails to catch up with the rest of the world under free trade of commodities.     

Outsourcing and the Heckscher–Ohlin Model

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate the currently mushrooming phenomenon of outsourcing into the standard two‐sector, two‐factor Heckscher–Ohlin model of international trade. We first show how outsourcing modifies a firm's production function, and then demonstrate that outsourcing generally raises the return to capital and lowers the real wage, although the nation's GDP rises in proportion to the value‐added in the outsourcing industry. Furthermore, the output of the outsourcing sector may actually fall even though its unit cost goes down; the output of the other sector then rises. By contrast, employment in the outsourcing sector may actually rise.     

A Neo-Heckscher–Ohlin Model of Trade with Endogenous Production Patterns*

We propose a Neo-Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) model of trade that combines comparative endowment advantage, comparative technological advantage, international capital mobility and trade costs. Using an inframarginal approach, we produce a partition of the exogenous parameter space in a host of parameter value subsets that demarcate the various equilibrium patterns of production and trade. The results are startling! They suggest that production within the diversification cone – a key assumption of the Heckscher–Ohlin theory that is required for its core propositions (such as factor price equalisation) to hold – may only prevail on the razor's edge, or under exceptional circumstances. In addition, our findings nominate a mechanism by which improvements in transaction efficiency facilitate international trade thereby stimulating cross-country division of labour. Contrary to other generalisations of the Heckscher–Ohlin (such as the various derivatives of the Kemp–Jones model of trade), our model does not assume a purely Ricardian character: comparative endowment advantage may determine the pattern of trade even in the presence of opposing technological differences, as long as total factor productivity coefficients adjusted for transaction efficiency and factor intensity do not confer unambiguous comparative (technological) advantage. Still, ‘intensity-efficiency’-adjusted comparative technological advantage supersedes factor endowments in determining the flow of trade.     

Rent Control,A Costly Redistributive Device? The Case of Canberra*

This paper assesses the consequences of compulsory rent and eviction control which was imposed in Canberra in 1973. A partial equilibrium model is utilized, but the effects of rent control on related markets are also considered. Two ways of estimating market rent are scrutinized, one of which is utilized in an attempt to measure tenants' benefits from the policy. A Hicks' equivalent variation measure of ‘tenants’ surplus' is proposed which takes account of the quantity constraint associated with rent control. This is estimated assuming a Cobb-Douglas utility function. The extent of the costs associated with conferring these benefits is indicated.     

Industrial Upgrading in a Multiple‐cone Heckscher–Ohlin Model: The Flying Geese Patterns of Industrial Development

This paper examines empirically how the multiple‐cone version of the Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) model fits the “flying geese” patterns of industrial development: a series of industries appear, prosper, then decline and finally disappear one after another. Using Japanese manufacturing data from 1975 to 2006, the analysis shows that the multiple‐cone model fits well with the flying geese patterns of Japanese industrial development. The result suggests that part of the industrial upgrading can be explained by the multiple‐cone HO model. This also implies that an underlying mechanism of macroeconomic growth is industrial upgrading, part of which can be attributed to capital accumulation.     

A Renewable Resource-based Ramsey Model with Costly Resource Extraction

This paper derives the analytical solution of arenewable resource-based Ramsey economy withcostly resource extraction. The goal is toascertain whether costly resource extractioncan induce nonlinear dynamical properties in the system. We find that the solution for a model with constant technology can exhibit multiple steady states,and the comparative statics effects for consumption,utility, and the stock of nature capital areambiguous in a number of different cases. Moreover, thesolution for a model with exogenous technological progress exhibits unusual comparative dynamics andthe possibility of multiple balanced growthpaths. An increase in the rate of technologicalprogress induces a long-run growth rate in per capitaconsumption that depends on parameters of the productionfunction. Overall, technological progress inthe model can be less beneficial than in the standardeconomic growth model in which resourceextraction is costless.     

Industrial development in Malaysia and Singapore: Empirical analysis with multiple‐cone Heckscher–Ohlin Model

This paper employs the multiple‐cone Heckscher–Ohlin model to analyze industrial development in Malaysia and Singapore. In particular, we focus on industrial upgrading along with capital accumulation as a key determinant for the cross‐country difference in production technology and income. By pooling two countries’ data on factor endowment and sectoral output in manufacturing from 1990 to 2008, we estimate the common industrial development paths of the two‐cone Heckscher–Ohlin model, the Rybczynski linear relationship between capital–labor ratio and sectoral output per capita. Our results demonstrate that, after controlling for quality of workers (by educational attainment), the two countries resided in different cones during our sample period, implying that Singapore succeeded in accumulating capital steadily with the support of foreign investment and upgrading its industry mix to make it more capital‐intensive. The separation of cones is also consistent with the observed gap in gross domestic product per capita between the two countries. Furthermore, we implement a factor‐augmenting productivity test to see the gaps in efficiency of capital and human‐capital‐augmented labor and confirm no significant difference between the two countries.     

Reallocation and restructuring: A generalization of the Balassa–Samuelson effect

Despite its strong theoretical position when it comes to explaining inflation in transition economies, the empirical findings of the Balassa–Samuelson (B–S) effect assign only a minor role to structural inflation – to the disappointment of analysts and policymakers. This article points to 3 theory-based contributing factors to these ‘weak’ findings and offers an alternative methodological approach. First, a short-term focus makes B–S prone to underestimating the magnitude of the productivity growth differential. Second, the conventional demand side CPI based definition of sectoral value added reduces the extent to which the productivity growth differential is passed through to inflation. Third, by ignoring the dependence between the 2 main B–S components, a further downward bias to the productivity growth pass through comes about. The key to our proposed alternative methodology centres on an endogenous relation between the productivity growth differential and sector sizes. Together with the long-run supply-side approach this allows us to capture inflation drivers that conventional B–S fails to incorporate. In our extension to the conventional B–S model a reduced productivity growth differential can be compensated by an increased productivity growth pass-through, or vice versa – with the effect of augmenting inflation pressure. Hence, the link between productivity growth differentials and the dynamics of structural inflation is shown to be more complex than previously assumed.     

Labour Market Regulations and the Sectoral Reallocation of Workers: The Case of Trade Reforms

In this paper I highlight the importance of incorporating the institutional features of local labour markets into the analysis of trade reforms. A trade reform is often deemed beneficial because the elimination of trade barriers allows labour to reallocate towards those sectors in the economy in which the country has a comparative advantage. The amount and speed of the reallocation, however, and the post-reform behaviour of output, productivity and welfare, will depend on how regulated the labour market is. First, I document that high firing costs slow down the intersectoral reallocation of labour after a trade reform. Second, in order to isolate the effect of firing costs on labour reallocation, output and welfare after a trade reform, I build a dynamic general equilibrium model. I find that if a country does not liberalize its labour market at the outset of its trade reform, the intersectoral reallocation of workers will be 30% slower, and as much as 30% of the gains in real output and labour productivity in the years following the trade reform will be lost. From a policy standpoint, the message is that while trade reforms are desirable, they need to be complemented by labour market reforms in order to be fully successful.     

生产者服务贸易：一个基于赫克歇尔——俄林模型的方法

一、前言 　　最近,关于服务的作用及重要性的讨论（如参见,Gershuny and Miles 1983;Inman1985）对这方面的关注的高涨的部分原因是有着大量的美国代表表达的把服务贸易列为GATT谈判的一部份的愿望.但是尽管服务部门的重要性被量化,可是令人惊奇的是几乎没人去注意这方面的理论,特别是国际贸易理论.     

A Monetary Target Model: The Case of Taiwan

This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the monetary target and the probability of monetary intervention in Taiwan. The methodology is based on the estimation of a regime switching model. Empirical results show that a target band between 0.95 and 2.17 percent per month has been in effect, and most often the monetary authority has followed a non-interventionist policy. It is probable that the monetary authority engaged in an expansionary policy when intervention was warranted. Adjustments of the rediscount rate by the central bank were found to be consistent with the magnitude of the intervention pressure as predicted by the model.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model

This paper revisits the effect of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on the extent of business cycle synchronization across its member states. A dynamic latent factor model is used to identify the ‘regional’ effect of the euro area on output growth and inflation dynamics across European countries. The results of variance decomposition analysis confirm that both output growth and inflation tended to be more synchronized among European countries during the run-up to the EMU, but there is no strong evidence to support the argument that the ‘regional’ effects prevailed after 1999.     

A Rotated Dynamic Nelson‐Siegel Model

I show how to rotate the factor structure of the well‐known Dynamic Nelson‐Siegel yield‐curve model to enable direct parametrization of the short rate process. This makes it easy to calculate model‐implied term premia and to integrate macroeconomic variables into the model in a Taylor‐rule‐type fashion.