Open economy and financial burden of corruption: theory and application to Asia

We discuss why corruption remains high and show that corruption contributes to the Banking distress and to the rapid transmission across international stock and currency markets. Undeveloped ‘derivative securities’ markets make the risk from stress-induced volatility difficult to manage. Vinod’s (1999) closed economy model is extended to indicate the asymmetry of ‘home bias’ and the effect of corruption on the value at risk (VaR). Our theory predicts that capital flight controls will be many, foreign direct investment (FDI) will be low and cost of capital will be high in corrupt developing countries, which is supported by Asian data. We include some policy recommendations regarding financial institutions and markets.     

Shadow banking activities of non-financial companies and the information content of stock prices

In recent years, corporate investment rate has been declining, and they have been allocating financial capital to the shadow credit market, which lead to accumulation of financial risks. Based on the annual data of non-financial listed companies from 2007 to 2019, this paper explores the impact of non-financial companies’ shadow banking on the information content of stock prices. Results show that shadow banking of non-financial enterprises reduce the information content of stock price, and the above effects are more significant in regions with lower social trust and higher policy uncertainty, private enterprises, and enterprises without political connection. Enterprises engage in shadow banking can impact idiosyncratic information content of stock price through channels of earning management, irrational investor behavior, creditor risk concerns and informed trading; Analysts over-optimism and insider trading can also have an impact on the relationship between shadow banking activities and synchronization of stock price. This paper analyzes economic consequences of non-financial enterprises’ shadow banking activities, thus providing important theoretical support and policy guidance for enhancing signal mechanism of securities market, improving capital market efficiency of resource allocation, deepening financial market-oriented reforms.     

Rice Paddy or Shrimp Pond: Tough Decisions in Rural Thailand

Thailand is the world’s largest producer of cultured shrimp. Despite problems with poor environmental conditions and outbreaks of disease that have led to the large-scale abandonment of culture areas along the coast, production has remained high. A primary factor has been the establishment of marine shrimp farming in Thailand’s rice growing Central Plain. This paper describes the development of inland shrimp farming in Thailand, and discusses the environmental concerns that have arisen. We then examine the evolution of the government’s response to inland shrimp farming and assess the capacity of the state to implement a proposed ban. We conclude by arguing that other countries with irrigated agriculture need to be proactive in prohibiting this activity before it is entrenched in ways that are difficult to reverse either ecologically or politically.     

Testing for cointegration with threshold effect between stock prices and exchange rates in Japan and Taiwan

This paper empirically investigates the exchange rate effects of the New Taiwan dollar against the Japanese Yen (NTD/JPY) on stock prices in Japan and Taiwan from January 1991 to Mach 2008. Our study employs the newly threshold error-correction model (TECM) elaborated by Enders and Granger [Enders, W., Granger, C.W.F., 1998. Unit-root tests and asymmetric adjustment with an example using the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Business Economics & Statistics 16, 304–311] and Enders and Siklos [Enders, W., Siklos, P.L., 2001. Cointegration and threshold adjustment. Journal of Business Economics & Statistics 19, 166–176], assuming the nature of the relationship between the variables is on the basis of non-linearity. The empirical evidence suggests that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between NTD/JPY and the stock prices of Japan and Taiwan during the time period investigated. However, an asymmetric threshold cointegration relationship only exists in Taiwan’s financial market. Furthermore, we extend our research by taking into account the effect of the U.S. exchange rate specifically on Taiwan’s financial market. This research also finds a long-term equilibrium and asymmetric causal relationships between NTD/USD and the stock prices of Taiwan. In addition, the results of TECM Granger-Causality tests show that no short-run causal relationship exists between the two financial assets considered for both countries’ cases. However, in the long run a positive causal relationship running from either the Japan or U.S. exchange rate to the stock prices of Taiwan strongly argues for the traditional approach.     

Capital Formation during the Industrial Revolution Revisited: Insurance Valuations and Some New Sectoral Estimates

National accounting and sectoral estimates of capital formation have underscored the picture of a "cut-price" industrialization in Britain with low capital requirements. Feinstein′s recent revisions to his earlier figures however have substantially increased the estimated level of capital stock in manufacturing during the late 18th century. This paper reexamines the sectoral estimates of capital in the cotton and wool textile industries for the period 1788-1835. The reliability of insurance valuations as a basis for these estimates is questioned. New capital stock figures are produced which incorporate allowances for capital missing from the insurance data used in the existing estimates. The thrust of these new sectoral estimates is to lend further significance to capital accumulation in British manufacturing during the Industrial Revolution.     

From plan to market in the health sector?: China’s experience

Countries worldwide confront the challenge of defining and achieving appropriate roles for government and market forces in the health sector. China—as both a developing and a transitional economy—represents an important case. This paper uses an international comparative perspective to examine how the health of China’s population and other aspects of health system performance changed during the reform era. We draw on standard public finance and health economics theory, as well as the more recent incomplete-contracting theory of property rights, to summarize the comparative advantages of government and market for financing and delivery of health services, particularly in developing and transitional economies. We then describe and analyze against this theoretical background the transformation of China’s health sector and recent commitment of government funds to move toward universal coverage.     

Tax and leverage: Evidence from China

This study exploits two institutional features of China to test the causal link between tax and capital structure. First, the central government exclusively determines the corporate tax rate in China, which results in changes in corporate income tax rates across different Chinese public firms over the period of 2000–2011. Such mandatory tax shifts provide a quasi-natural experimental setting for our difference-in-differences analysis investigating the impact of tax on leverage. We find evidence supporting the dynamic trade-off theory, namely that firms are unresponsive to tax cuts but increase long-term leverage when taxes rise (particularly those in low statutory tax regimes). Second, governmental intervention in capital allocation is common in China such that political connections are usually regarded as an asset for firms in accessing bank loans. Using anti-corruption events as shocks to the value of political connections over the sample period, our research is the first study to show that political connections become a liability that enables banks to recall loans from affected firms during the anti-corruption campaign periods. This change overturns the typical tax-leverage relationship observed, as we find anti-corruption affected firms reduce long-term leverage when taxes are cut and they become insensitive to tax increases. Our results reveal the importance of political ties in explaining how firms adjust their capital structure to tax changes, which is extremely relevant to policy makers and regulators when monitoring bank loan markets.     

Continuity with change: A review of Zimbabwe's public sector urban low‐income housing production system

This article reviews Zimbabwe's public sector urban low‐income housing production system, in over one hundred years of urbanisation marked by changes in governments, political economies, ideologies and urban systems. By examining important features in organisation, construction, costing, finance and allocation, the study reveals that in essence. Zimbabwe's public sector housing production system has not changed significantly since the early years of urbanisation. The consistency and resilience of the more important features, both in the colonial and post‐colonial eras, overshadow what changes there have been.     

Private Information Production,Public Disclosure,and the Cost of Capital: Theory and Implications*

Both private information production by market traders and public disclosure by firms contribute to dissemination of financial information in the capital market. However, the motives and economic consequences of the two are quite different. In general, private information production is intended by investors to increase their trading profit, which has the effect of widening the information gap between informed and uninformed investors and increasing the firm's cost of capital. On the other hand, public disclosure can be used to narrow this information gap and to lower the cost of capital. This paper provides a theoretical model to examine the economic incentives behind these two forms of information dissemination and their consequences on the cost of capital. By simultaneously considering the firm's and the information traders' decisions, the paper derives an equilibrium in which the amount of private information production, the level of public disclosure, and the cost of capital are all linked to specific characteristics of the firm, of information traders, and of the market. In contrast to conventional beliefs, the paper predicts that, across firms, the cost of capital can be either positively or negatively related to the firm's disclosure level, depending on the specific factors that cause the variation within a particular sample. Similarly, the extent to which investors follow a firm and the firm's disclosure level can be either positively or negatively related to each other. Implications for empirical research are discussed.     

Monetary Union, institutions and financial market integration: Italy, 1862–1905

Years into the single currency, EMU financial markets are not fully integrated. We argue that the phenomenon can be better understood by looking at financial markets’ behavior in the wake of Italy’s monetary unification (1862). Variables such as the spread of the telegraph, trade volumes, and the diffusion of the ‘single currency’ fail to explain why it took 25 years for prices across regional stock exchanges to converge. A single Italian financial market appeared only when the State prevailed upon local vested interests by enforcing nation-wide financial market legislation.     

资本配置效率的区域差异分析

文章结合我国1999—2006年经济统计数据,通过构建面板数据集,对我国各地区的资本配置效率以及行业的资本配置效率进行了实证分析。分析结果显示：我国不同地区之间资本配置都是有效率的,但资本配置效率在不同地区之间存在较大的差异。不同地区行业资本配置效率存在共同的规律,在国有经济比重较大的行业资本配置效率较低。相反,多种经济成分共同参与竞争的行业资本配置效率较高。     

Capital mobility and environmental standards: Racing to the bottom with multiple tax instruments

This paper investigates the possibility of a ‘race to the bottom,’ under which intergovernmental competition for mobile capital leads to inefficiently lax environmental standards. A model is constructed in which independent welfare-maximizing governments regulate pollution emissions from production activities, while taxing residential labor and mobile capital to finance public good expenditures. A race is shown to exist in the sense that a ‘central planner’ could improve welfare in every country by requiring that each government tighten its environmental standards. The analysis also shows that the tax-financed public good is underprovided in equilibrium, but it is argued that this problem may be less severe than the race-to-the-bottom problem.     

Prospects for the socialist transition of agriculture in Zimbabwe

In Zimbabwe, where a land reform programme is the chief socialist-oriented domestic policy pursued by the government, the issue of land is likely to remain the central political issue. The government's resettlement and co-operative programmes are likely to be jeopardized by the inherited agrarian legacy and fears of provoking white commercial farmers. Unless the state can intervene and acquire the unused and underutilized commercial farms, any land available is likely to be poor and require high investment to facilitate resettlement. To meet the needs and demands of the peasantry will require a political will and foresight which in the immediate future is likely to be constrained by a number of external and internal economic and political factors.     

Regime change and debt default: the case of Russia, Austro-Hungary, and the Ottoman empire following World War One

We consider the effect of the three largest regime changes following World War One on the foreign debt repayments of the succeeding regimes. The Bolsheviks repudiated the Tsarist debt, both external and internal in early 1918, and could not borrow internationally until the 1970s. The Austro-Hungarian successor states, with the exception of Romania, remained on good terms with lenders, and quickly gained access to foreign capital. However, the Ottoman successor states entered into protracted negotiations before accepting responsibility for a share of the debt, which meant they faced a lengthy delay before being able to re-enter the international capital market. We analyze these events using a game theoretical model of incomplete information, whereby capital markets can not directly observe a government’s ‘type.’ We find that there were two main economic reasons why countries did not settle their debts after their regimes changed. Some countries, in particular Russia, did not value continued credit market access as highly as before, and second that international lenders will not trust a regime in default with a new loan.     

Capital formation in transport infrastructure in New Zealand to 1950

Series of disaggregated capital formation in the New Zealand public sector prior to 1950 remain scarce despite thirty years having passed since the series for the period 1871–1900 were compiled by J.A. Dowie. Even within his series there can be problems utilizing the estimates because of the aggregated nature of some outlay categories. The capital stock series are more deficient, reflecting methodological problems with the preparation of such series from capital formation data. Using the Dowie series as a point of reference this article focusses on one important area of public capital stock, transport infrastructure. The resulting estimates allow some exploration of public policies in respect of the provision of transport infrastructure.     

Allocation and Composition of Fixed Capital Stock in Indonesia: An Indirect Estimate Using Incremental Capital Value Added Ratios

This paper provides an estimate of the value of fixed capital stock in 22 industries, distinguishing three types of capital goods (domestically produced and imported machinery and equipment, and construction works). The estimates of capital stock have been built up with the help of the Perpetual Inventory Methad, whereby the allocation of investments in early years was based on relative Incremental Capital Value Added Ratios computed fora more recent period.     

不改善金融结构 中国经济将没有出路

中国经济结构严重失衡有着深刻的社会、文化和经济政治体制背景,原因之一是要素市场未能充分发挥其在资源配置中的基础性作用,只有深化改革,打破劳动力、土地、资本等要素市场长期存在的体制性障碍,才能显著提高资源配置的效率。金融服务业体系迫切需要健全和完善。直接金融具有推动产业结构调整升级的天然优势。推进资本市场的科学发展需要下苦工夫:要坚定不移地深化发行和退市制度改革,加快发展多层次、多产品的资本市场体系,狠抓上市公司治理结构完善,以更大决心和更细致的服务培育机构投资者,不断提高市场效率,坚决守住不发生区域性系统性风险的底线。     

Fiscal disequilibrium in developing countries

Fiscal equilibrium necessitates that ‘permanent’ government expenditures be covered by ‘permanent’ government revenues. The concept of ‘permanent’ goverment expenditures and revenues takes into account future revenue from capital investments as well as temporary windfalls. Hence, equilibrium may exist despite temporary imbalance between revenue and expenditure. The causes of disequilibrium can be classified into five categories: export boom; price-inelastic tax system; public enterprise performance; increased expenditure produced by political exigencies or administrative weaknesses; and worsening terms of trade. In practice, unrealistic customs valuations, specific as opposed to ad valorem taxes and administrative difficulties have been the most common sources of declining government revenue as a percentage of gross domestic product. Increased subsidies both to consumer goods and to public enterprises as well as inadequate control mechanisms have been the most frequent causes of rising government expenditure.     

Indonesian economic development: Mirage or miracle?

This paper focuses on a few major developments that took place during the three decades from the late 1960s to the Asian financial crisis. The study finds, in retrospect, that many of the Indonesian economy’s weaknesses—now so glaringly apparent—were there all the time. The paper concludes that the Indonesian banking crisis was primarily domestic in nature, more so than the crises in Korea and Thailand. The extent of the failure was much more widespread and probably resulted from a chain of bank runs and bank closings, reinforced by uncertainty and lack of faith in the government’s commitment to the IMF program and IMF fumbling.     

The Cross-industry Spillover of Technological Capability: Korea’s DRAM and TFT–LCD Industries

Studies of Korea’s Thin Film Transistor–Liquid Crystal Display (TFT–LCD) industry have emphasized the government policy, industrial organization, and the firm’s strategy as key success factors. However, the fact that knowledge spillover, which tends to occur between highly technologically related industries, can lead to a reduction in innovation effort has been overlooked. We examined the technological relationships between Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) and TFT–LCD industries and investigated their spillover into the areas of technology, human resources and organization, and network. The results show spillover in capital control, technology, production and quality management, organizational systems, and key personnel. This implies that spillover effect in high technology firms may diversify their products due to existing technological capabilities.