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1.
    
Through the lens of a DSGE model, I find that financial shocks in conjunction with downward nominal wage rigidities (DNWR) are important features in explaining the degree of asymmetry that U.S. business cycles exhibit. Financial shocks are constructed as residuals of the borrowing constraint faced by firms in a similar fashion to Jermann and Quadrini (2012). The effects of these shocks on aggregate quantity variables are amplified by DNWR, especially during the global financial crisis. Moreover, my model explains a large part of the upward shift in the labor wedge that occurred during this recession.  相似文献   

2.
    
This paper investigates liquidity spillovers between the US and European interbank markets during turbulent and tranquil periods. We show that an endogenous model with time-varying transition probabilities is effective in describing the propagation of liquidity shocks within the interbank market, while predicting liquidity crashes characterised by changed dynamics. We show that liquidity shocks, originating from movements of the spread between the Asset Backed Commercial Paper and T-bill, drive regime changes in the euro fixed-float OIS swap rate. Our results support the idea of endogenous contagion from the US money market to the eurozone money market during the global financial crisis.  相似文献   

3.
    
Firms develop relationships with their banks in order to ensure access to financing when credit conditions deteriorate in time of crisis. I investigate the effect of bank-firm relationships in Turkey where 90 percent of a firm’s financial debt is obtained through bank loans. I find that adjusted for loan terms and firm-fixed effects, borrowers with past relationships with incumbent banks have lower risk-adjusted financing costs. Furthermore, lower financing costs associated with relationship are even more pronounced during the 2008–2009 financial crisis.  相似文献   

4.
基于SVAR模型,考量次贷危机前后外部冲击对工业品价格指数的动态影响及结构性传导。结果表明:国际金融危机爆发以来,外部冲击对我国工业品价格指数的影响呈现增强趋势,并且国际大宗商品价格冲击是最重要因素;在结构特征上,外部冲击效应具有不完全性,对生产资料PPI的影响较大,对生活资料PPI的影响较小,显示外部冲击效应的传导具有不完全性,黏滞在生产流通领域不能顺利传导至消费领域。  相似文献   

5.
本文以北岩银行挤兑案例为研究对象,在系统回顾事件发生、处置过程的基础上,分析了英国金融稳定框架中存在的缺陷,描述了英格兰银行维护金融稳定的实践和启示以及后金融危机时期金融稳定的新发展,进而对完善我国的金融稳定框架提供借鉴。  相似文献   

6.
对于我国货币政策操作目标,并没有一个明确的说法。为了对相对稳定、有效的货币政策操作目标进行实证判断,本文建立了宏观经济变量和准备金市场变量的结构性向量自回归模型(SVAR),通过识别假设把SVAR模型转化为包含政策变量和非政策变量新息(innovation)的关于政策变量的半结构性向量自回归模型(Semi-SVAR)。通过准备金市场模型,界定了可观察残差项与结构扰动项之间的黑箱,对我国货币政策操作目标进行识别。实证结果显示,1998年以来,我国相对稳定、有效的货币政策操作目标是准备金总额,也可以说是基础货币,并不是超额准备金和货币市场利率。识别的政策冲击反映了货币政策调控事件对货币供求的冲击,与我国货币政策的操作实际很吻合。  相似文献   

7.
银行业危机:金融泡沫视角的分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
自20世纪80年代以来,银行业危机爆发越显频繁。然而,通过对银行业危机内部形成机理分析可以发现,银行业危机的爆发其实是伴随着金融泡沫的形成与破灭这一过程的。在金融泡沫的形成过程中,银行往往会给一些高风险行业发放贷款,从而增加银行经营风险;而在金融泡沫破灭之后,这将直接或间接地导致银行产生大量的不良贷款,从而使银行业危机最终爆发。因此,我国应尽快化解国有商业银行的不良资产;完善银行微观治理结构;建立和完善金融监管机制。  相似文献   

8.
摘要:现有的金融危机理论主要基于四个角度来阐释金融危机,经历了“由强调宏观因素到强调微观因素,再到宏观因素与微观因素并重”的发展过程。货币政策在金融危机理论中的重要性也随着理论的发展和研究视角的不同而有不同的体现。本文对金融危机理论中有关货币政策与金融危机关系的研究进行了系统的梳理总结,并作相应述评。  相似文献   

9.
    
ABSTRACT

This article intensively studies the stock market volatility spillover effects between China and the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) based on the covered selection of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc (MSCI) index by using multiplicative error model to measure stock market volatility with daily price range. The results show that during the whole sample period, there are bilateral linkages of volatility between the stock markets of China and all of B&R countries. Most of B&R and China’s markets are sensitive to positive news but the asymmetry is trivial. Financial crisis intensified the volatility spillover effects across countries while the markets’ volatilities tend to be influenced by the negative shocks from foreign markets. The B&R markets as risk absorbers exhibit significant sensitivities to the negative news from Chinese market during the crisis period.  相似文献   

10.
影响我国金融安全的国内外因素分析   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4  
20世纪末国际上不断出现的金融危机,在给全球特别是给新兴市场经济国家经济和金融带来巨大破坏的同时,增强了人们的金融安全意识,也促使我们更加关注我国的金融安全。不可忽视的是,在我国金融开放进程中,国内外都存在危及我国金融安全的因素,这些因素交织在一起会引发我国的金融危机。  相似文献   

11.
    
We analyse the impact of fiscal policy shocks in the euro area as a whole, using a newly‐available quarterly data set of fiscal variables for the period 1981–2007. To allow for comparability with previous results on euro‐area countries and the US, we use a standard structural vector autoregressive (VAR) framework, and study the impact of aggregated and disaggregated government spending and net‐tax shocks. In addition, to frame euro‐area results, we apply the same methodology for the same sample period to US data. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to the inclusion of variables aiming to control for underlying financial and fiscal conditions. The main new findings are that: expansionary fiscal shocks have a short‐term positive impact on GDP and private consumption, with government spending shocks entailing, in general, higher effects on economic activity than (net) tax reductions; output multipliers to government expenditure shocks are of similar size in the euro area and in the US; the persistence of a fiscal spending shock is higher in the US than in the euro area, which appears to be related to military spending in the US; and fiscal multipliers have increased over the recent past in both geographical areas.  相似文献   

12.
经济开放进程中金融危机冲击比较研究   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4  
亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机对中国经济产生了明显的影响,但在经济开放进程中这两次危机冲击特点和结果均有所不同。本文对开放进程中金融危机向国内传导的渠道进行分析,利用指标对比分析法、干扰模型、脉冲响应以及方差分解技术分析比较了两次金融危机对我国冲击的不同影响机制。研究结论表明,在经济开放进程中,美国次贷危机对国内经济的冲击要远超于亚洲金融危机;在资本项目没有完全开放条件下,国际贸易渠道越来越成为国际金融危机冲击向国内传导的重要渠道;尽管经济开放增加了金融风险,但良好的制度设计和金融风险管理手段的加强,使金融危机通过金融渠道传导而产生的冲击波有所降低。  相似文献   

13.
14.
    
We assess the state of knowledge about crisis risk and its implications for risk management. Data that became available after the global financial crisis show that some types of crises are predictable when accounting for interactions between risks. However, other types of crises do not seem predictable. There is no evidence that the frequency of economic and financial crises is increasing. While data show that an economic crisis is more likely following a political crisis, there is no comparable evidence for climate events. Strategies that increase firm operational and financial flexibility reduce the adverse impact of crises on firms.  相似文献   

15.
冰岛金融危机的起因、教训与启示   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
在全球金融危机的冲击下,冰岛成为第一个陷入困境而向IMF求助的发达国家。该文分析了冰岛金融危机的起因及教训,认为冰岛危机是自身经济发展失衡、金融过度膨胀且存在结构缺陷的后果;政府的金融监管与危机应对措施也负有重大责任。对其他国家都有着重要的警示意义。  相似文献   

16.
信用衍生产品自问世以来在分散金融机构信用风险、完善信用风险定价机制、提高债券市场流动性等方面发挥了积极的作用。该文介绍了信用衍生产品的主要功能及其在本次金融危机前、中、后三个时期的发展特点,肯定了基础信用衍生产品对金融市场的重要作用,指出中国应推动金融创新,建立有中国特色的信用衍生产品市场。  相似文献   

17.
全球金融危机后的场外金融衍生品市场变革   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
后金融危机时代的全球场外衍生品市场正处于深刻变革之中,各国政府、监管部门和金融行业改革场外衍生品市场的一系列举措对我国也有着重要的借鉴意义。文章对金融危机以来全球场外衍生品市场发展改革的情况进行了整理研究,并结合我国实际提出相关建议。  相似文献   

18.
西方金融危机的深层透视及其启示   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
引起当前西方经济走向萧条的真正原因不是政策失误、监管疏忽和金融投机,不是次贷危机引起金融危机、金融危机引起经济危机。社会化的产品及其所包含的剩余价值为资本家个人所占有,决定了生产与消费脱节的可能和必然,决定了投资不足和投资需求由热到冷,触发生产过剩并引起经济危机。现代金融资本通过对利润的有力掠夺,进一步破坏消费市场,通过诱导过量生产、制造虚假繁荣,引领经济循环。只有建设社会主义经济方式、合理的微观企业制度基础和科学的金融体制才能避免金融危机、经济危机和停滞衰退。  相似文献   

19.
美国次贷危机与金融制度重构   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
美国次贷危机暴露出的种种问题表明,系统性风险的来源已经发生了变化,而金融基础制度的安排,无论是国际金融风险监测预警框架,还是监管制度、会计标准和评级体系,却未跟上金融市场的发展。为了恢复投资人信心,提升金融市场效率,亟需重构金融制度。  相似文献   

20.
本文对系统性金融风险的概念界定、生成原因、传导渠道以及防范等方面具有代表性的文献进行了梳理和述评,总结了系统性金融风险的最新研究进展,指出了今后的研究方向及对中国的启示。  相似文献   

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